A Transit Manager’s

Look at Priorities for WSF

Richard M. HayesExecutive Director, Kitsap Transit

Puget Sound Leadership Ferry SummitDec. 7, 2007

Bremerton, WA

WSF Survival Focus

Operations is different

from Capital

• WSDOT overall focus is on capital as its product

• WSF focuses on operations and capital is support

Survival focus should be on boats (in this order)

• Spares• Rehab• Replacement

SMALL IS GOOD

Boat Issues

• Hulls can be maintained/preserved almost indefinitely, but at a steadily increasing cost

• Components (propulsion systems, steering, etc.) become, over time, functionally and predictably obsolete

Buses at 20-30 years Boats at ? (WSF has this info)

• Propulsion systems are all environmentally obsolete now

Fuel Issues

• WSF has a very thirsty fleet (100s of gallons an hour for most vessels)

• The rapid rise in fuel prices has already wrecked the agency’s budget

• More troubles to come: Supply vs. Demand issues over the next 30 years are scary (See StewartMiller.com)

Supply vs. Demand: Demand is rising rapidly,

especially in China and India

2 0 0 4 2 0 3 0N o r t h A m e r i c a 2 5 . 0 3 2 . 0N o n - O E C D A s i a 1 4 . 8 2 9 . 8O E C D E u r o p e 1 5 . 6 1 5 . 8O E C D A s i a 8 . 5 9 . 3C e n t r a l a n d S o u t h A m e r i c a 5 . 4 9 . 7M i d d l e E a s t 5 . 7 9 . 8N o n - O E C D E u r o p e a n d E u r a s i a 4 . 8 6 . 3A f r i c a 2 . 8 4 . 9

Supply vs. Demand: The future is tremendously

uncertain• National oil

companies are locking up reserves

• Historic market will shrink and be less stable (US is the biggest market-dependent country)

Need “Ferry Futures Think Tank”

• To define fleet rehab/replacement plan in 30-40 year time frame

• Based on service preservation plans that are based on combined-service scenarios: (Auto/Passenger Boat + Passenger-Only)

• Specific Goals targeted to reducing costs/subsidies (but not service levels) by route

Direct quality staff time & consultant funding to this

focus

• Interagency staffing to produce service plans

• The detailed fleet plans as part of the service plans