A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING WATER-ENERGY … · A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING...

A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS

Slobodan P. Simonović Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

The University of Western Ontario London, Ontario, Canada

WEF Modelling Conclusions 2|

• WEF nexus • New challenges • High level of integration • High level of complexity • Common concerns

• Systems approach

• Modelling of the whole system • System dynamics simulation (and optimization)

• Modelling of various scales

• Global • Regional • ….

• ANEMI model example

IISD, Winnipeg 2012 Slobodan P. Simonović

WEF Modelling Outline 3|

• Challenges of the new/old context • Integration • Systems approach • Example

• ANEMI model • Lessons learned

• Conclusions


WEF Context Definitions 4|

• Nexus? • A center point of something! • A center of various connections!

• Water, energy and food – pillars of global security, prosperity and equity

• Perspectives • Water perspective – food and energy systems are users of resources • Food perspective – water and energy are inputs • Energy perspective – water is the input and food is the output

• Vast individual areas • Policy and regulations often create sub-optimal solutions


WEF Context Challenges 5|

• Water-Energy-Food common concerns • Access to services • Environmental impacts • Price volatility

• Climate change • Mitigation – energy • Adaptation – land and water

• Growing population • Poverty • Health

• Management • Enormous opportunities for higher efficiency • Study of the whole complex system • Understanding interactions – it is all about feedbacks

• Scale • 1.4 billion people without access to electricity • 3 billion with out access to modern fuels or technologies for cooking and heating • 900 million people without access to safe drinking water • 2.6 billion do not have sanitation • 900 million people are chronically hungry • 2 billion people lack food security


WEF Modelling Systems approach 7|


• Consideration of all three areas together • Systems view

• Complexity • Whole system approach • Difficult to translate into government policy making processes

• System structure • Feedbacks • System behavior

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI 8|


• NSERC Discovery Grant (2005 – 2007) ANEMI ver 1 • NSERC Strategic Grant (2007 – 2011) ANEMI ver 2 • Project objectives

i. To develop system dynamics-based model sectors of all biophysical elements of the environment that are relevant to climate change.

ii. To develop system dynamics-based model sectors of all socio-economic elements of the environment that are relevant to climate change.

iii. To couple the biophysical sectors of the model with important socio-economic sectors.

iv. To provide support for communication between the science and policy communities.

v. To examine the effects of climate change on socio-economic and environmental sustainability through the model outputs.

• Interdisciplinary team • Systems modelling – engineering • Climate policy – geography and political science • Economics – economics

• Partners • Environment Canada • Natural Resources Canada • Department of Finance • Department of Fisheries and Oceans • Department of Agriculture



• Selection of the methodological approach • First workshop • ANEMI model development

• Structure • Sectors • Preliminary results

• Identification of key issues • Communication with the project

collaborators • Selection of simulation scenarios

• Second workshop • ANEMI model expansion

• Economy-energy integration • Model regionalization

• Model use • Scenario analyses • Model limitations

• Third workshop • Model transfer • Future work

Water stress Effects: Canada

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.22

0.24

0.26

0.28

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Time (Year)

Wat

er S

tres

s E

ffec

ts (

dim

ensi

on

less

)

Base Condition 2 degree with transfer3 degree with transfer 4 degree with transfer2 degree 3 degree4 degree



Carbon

Climate

+

+

Land Use

+

+

Population

Energy-Economy

Surface Flow

-

+

+ Water Quality

Water Demand

−

−

+

+

+

+

−

−

Food

Production

+

-

-

-

-

+

+

+

+

Clearing

and

Burning

Land Use

Emissions

Temperature

Atmospheric

CO2

Water

Stress

Water

Consumption

Temperature

Consumption

and Labour

GDP

per

capita

Wastewater

Treatment

Wastewater

Reuse

Wastewater

Treatment and

Reuse

Water use Intensity

Industrial

emission

Water use

efficiency

Pollution

Index

Per capita

food

Water

Stress

Arable Land

Agricultural

allocation

Emission

Index

Fertility

+

Temperature

1. Carbon cycle

2. Climate

3. Water Use

4. Water Quality

5. Surface Flow

6. Population

7. Land Use

8. Food Production

9. Energy-Economy

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI - Water 11|


lossC

wlgwwares

2

00 C-C-C-E-

LSLSSF =SF

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI - Food 12|


)1(Fp lfhly PLAL

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI - Energy 13|


)--(1 E LKA =Y tttt

tttttt

ElElElElElEl

ElEl AE

1

El,55El,44El,33El,22El,11 ) F+F+F+F+F( =

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Simulation & optimization 14|


WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – global and regional 15|


• Global model • Regional model – Canada and rest-of-the-world (ROW)

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – policy scenarios 16|


• Policy communication process • Set of interviews • Identification of policy questions by the research team • Identification of scenarios

• Initial set of scenarios • Carbon pricing • Economic growth rate • Water pricing • North American water stress • Irrigation • Energy subsidies and pricing • Land use change

• Final choice • Carbon tax • Increased water use • Food production increase

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Carbon tax scenario (global) 17|


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

10

11 G

J

Time

Energy Used for Electricity Production

Base

With Tax

0

100

200

300

400

500

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

GD

P (

tril

lio

n $

)

Time

GDP

With Tax

Base

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO

2co

nce

ntr

ati

on

(p

pm

)

Time

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

With Tax

Base

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Po

pu

lati

on

(B

illi

on

)

Time

Global Population

With Tax

Base

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Increased water use scenario (global) 18|


15200

15300

15400

15500

15600

15700

15800

15900

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Su

rfa

ce w

ate

r (

km

^3

)

Time

Available Surface Water

Water use increase

Base

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Wa

ter

Str

ess

(dim

ensi

on

less

)

Time

Water Stress

Water use increase

Base

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Fo

od

(tri

llio

n k

ilo

calo

rie

/yr)

Time

Food Production

Water use increase

Base

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Po

pu

lati

on

(B

illi

on

)

Time

Global Population

Water use increase

Base

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Increased food production scenario (global) 19|


15200

15300

15400

15500

15600

15700

15800

15900

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Su

rfa

ce w

ate

r (k

m^

3)

Time

Available Surface Water

Increase in food production

Base

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO

2co

nce

ntr

ati

on

(p

pm

)

Time

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration


Base

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Po

pu

lati

on

(B

illi

on

)

Time

Global Population


Base

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Carbon tax scenario (regional) 20|


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

10

9G

J

Time

Total Energy Used in the Production of Aggregate Energy

Services (Canada)

With Tax

Base

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO2

Emis

sion

s (G

t)

Time

Industrial CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (Canada)

With Tax

Base

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Th

ou

san

d $

Time

GDP Per Capita (Canada)

Base

With Tax

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Increased water use scenario (regional) 21|


0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Wa

ter

Str

ess(

dim

ensi

on

less

)

Time

Water Stress (Canada)

Water use increase

Base

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO

2em

issi

on

s (G

t)

Time

CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (Canada)

Water use increase

Base

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – Increased food production scenario (regional) 22|


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Fo

od

(tri

llio

n k

ilo

calo

rie/

yr)

Time

Food Production(Canada)


Base

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Wa

ter

Str

ess(

dim

ensi

on

less

)

Time

Water Stress (Canada)


Base

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – lessons learned 23|


• Systems approach • System dynamic simulation – complexity and integrated

modelling • Integration of simulation and optimization • Scenarios

• Global modelling

• Regional modelling

• ….

WEF Modelling Example ANEMI – conclusions 24|


• WEF nexus • New challenges • High level of integration • High level of complexity • Common concerns

• Systems approach

• Modelling of the whole system • System dynamics simulation (and optimization)

• Modelling of various scales

• Global • Regional • ….

• ANEMI model example

WEF Modelling Resources 25|


• Simonovic, S.P., and E.G.R. Davies (2006), “Are we modeling impacts of climate change properly?”, invited commentary, Hydrological Processes Journal, 20, pp.431-433.

• Davies, E.G.R. and S. P. Simonovic (2009). Energy Sector for the Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Economic-Climatic Model. Water Resources Research Report no. 063, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 191 pages. ISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2712-1; (online) 978-0-7714-2713-8.

• Davies, E.G.R, and S.P. Simonovic, (2010) “ANEMI: A New Model for Integrated Assessment of Global Change”, the Interdisciplinary Environmental Review special issue on Climate Change, 11(2/3):127-161.

• M. Khaled Akhtar,M.K., S. P. Simonovic, J. Wibe, J. MacGee and J. Davies (2011). An Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Energy-Economy-Climate System: Model Description. Water Resources Research Report no. 075, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 211 pagesISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2896-8; (online) 978-0-7714-2903-3.

• www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> fids

http://www.eng.uwo.ca/research/iclr/fids/publications/products/63.pdf














http://www.slobodansimonovic.com/

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