A speculative futures scenario as a critical tool for new ..._Andrew_McEwen.pdfFrom eco to ethical...
Transcript of A speculative futures scenario as a critical tool for new ..._Andrew_McEwen.pdfFrom eco to ethical...
A speculative futures scenario as a critical tool for new thinking
and transformative actionAndrew McEwen
From eco to ethical and sustainable bioregional tourism
Are we too late already?Mathis Wackernagel Ecological Footprinting
We will see it only when we believe it.
Business and political sea change• Roy Morgan have been saying for years
global warming matters to 85% of people • Lowry Institute survey 2006 global
warming matters to ordinary people• Branson $3B commitment to addressing
greenhouse challenge September 2006• Murdock Sky B Carbon neutral September• Howard linking droughts to climate change• Sir Nicholas Stern: Stern Report 5% drop
global GDP if do nothing. October 2006
In the 1986 we passed our sustainable global footprintWWF Global Footprint October 2006
Global footprints red in debt WWF Global Footprint October 2006
High income countries consume 6 times their share of ecological resources
Beyond the point of denial
“The evidence is so strong that we should put an end to the debate about whether humanity is causing global warming”
Science Vol 309 2005 Tim Barnet
A review of 928 papers on local climate change and published by Science indicate that there was no contrary evidence.
Science Vol 306 2004 Naomi Oreskes
Overshoot carrying capacity leads to catastrophe
Mathis Wackernagel Ecological Footprinting
Choice or chance in global ecological footprints
WWF Global Footprint 2006
Ecological debt overwhelms Global GDPWWF Global Footprint 2006
Possible survival strategyWWF Global Footprint 2006
Prudent Risk management strategy
Climate change is speeding up towards criticalthresholds from which we will not easily return
Whether it is Peak or Plateau Oil 2010 or 2035 prices will multiply
.
Energy Crunch
Global WarmingUnsustainable
EcologicalFootprint
Critical Natural Systems Thresholds
CrisisCatastrophe
or Creativity
Depending on how resilient our societies and communities are!
We need to change fundamentally by 2015 From To
Globalisation• Limited economic markets• Intense energy (oil & gas)
• Low energy costs• Global markets goods-services
• Long complex logistic value chains• Highly interdependent regions• Focus on Wealth creation • Risk management• Free trade• Unrestrained consumption• Carbon economy
Glocalisation• Full cost Ecological markets• Less intense energy (renewables)
• High energy costs• Global markets for knowledge and
learning• Short simple logistics value chains• More self sufficient regions• Focus on Resilience creation• Harm minimisation• Fair and free trade• Measured consumption• Renewable economy
Decarbonising societyHow much? How soon?
“The best evidence indicates that we need to reduce our CO2 emissions by 70% by 2050”
“The Weather Makers” Tim Flannery 2005
To stabilise the planet… “In rich countries this means an average cut of (CO2)around 90%.”
“Heat” 2006 George Monboit
“Richer countries should take responsibility for between 60-80% in emission reduction from 1990 -2050.”
Sir Nicholas Stern Review Yesterday
Implications of Jet travel
“On a return flight from London to New York every passenger produces roughly 1.2 tonnes of carbon of carbon dioxide, the very quantity that we will each be entitled to emit in a year once a 90% cut in emission is made”
“Heat” 2006 Monboit
Dis-ecology of jet travelLondon to New York 1.2 tonnes CO2 X 2.7 for other greenhouse affects = 3.24 tonnes
At 90% cut that equals 2.8 years carbon allocation per person
At 70% that equals 2.2 years carbon allocation per person
“Estimated that by 2050 50% carbon emissions in UK will come fromaviation. If the target of government is at 550 part per million 101% if target is 450 ppm.”
“If you include other greenhouse gas produced it is respectively 134% and 272% respectively.”
UK Tyndall Climate Centre
CO2 emissions short haul flight UK DOT
CO2 Emissions 298 k distance
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
plane car train coach
Type of vehicles
Kil
og
rmm
es
Series1
Critical Uncertainties and the Big Questions
• When (or if) will climate change accelerate?• When is the peak-plateau for oil and gas?• How fast can renewable energies be introduced? • What will be the level of eco disruption and negative
feedback?• What is the supply and demand of ingenuity required?• What is the level and capability to reduce carbon load
(particularly for jet travel)?• Will we find an energy source with the energy intensity
of oil-gas?• When and high large will carbon taxes and trading be?• Are we approaching or past some critical thresholds?
From eco to ethical tourismparameters of the debate
• Fast tourism• High energy• Experiences• Un-costed carbon load• Regular adventure• What I take• Dependency on trade• Affluence & wealth• Pleasure & indulgence• Low cost mass tourism
• Slow tourism• Low energy• Learning• Carbon neutrality• Irregular project• What I leave behind• Bioregional production• Equity and justice• Ingenuity & Innovation• High cost elitist or?
New ecological economics
Return = Numbers x Yield x Days x Multiplier
Modified return: = traditional return and+ or – opportunity costs alternate strategic investment - ecological costs and damage- reduced self sufficiency of bioregion+ resilience and sustainable learning for bioregion+ ingenuity and innovation unleashed for planet
sustainable tourism some thoughts
• Efficiency measures to reduce greenhouse • Slow and longer tourism• Bioregional tourism (neutral carbon load)• Medium pace train to bioregion (slow-medium fast train)
• Equity tourism voucher• Sustainability corps• Learning tourism• Pressure to reduce levels of inequality
From speculation to action
• We have at best ten years possible as little as 5• There is no choice:- No change is no strategy.• We will need an ethical position and a strategy
to address the carbon load and to maintain relevant market image and market share.
• We will need to build more resilience within the tourist bioregion operators.
• A learning region strategy is prudent and makes sense.
Market features of a Sustainable Tourism
Sustainable Tourism
ParadigmEquity & Justice
Learning& Innovation
Slow Food
Slow Tourism
Carbon Neutrality
Bioregional Self sufficiency
Fair TradeTrade in Knowledge Ecological
Markets
Where are we heading?
Increased Energy
ProductivityCompetition
Increased Speed &intensity
Hunting & Gathering160,000BC-10,000BC
Agricultural10,000BC-1700
Industrial1700AD-1970AD
Information1980AD-2010AD
Creative Wisdom2010AD - ?
Where are we heading?
Increased Speed, Energy, Productivity &
Complexity
IncreasedEquity, Justice,
Resource Efficiency
Higher Order SystemHigh productivity
New Wealth CreationGlobal Free markets
Qualitative New System
Ecological, EquitySustainable,
Co-operative , PeacefulEcological Collapse
Minimal SurvivalExtinction
Bifurcation Point
Ingenuity and Caring Gap
.
Supply of Ingenuity
Time Crisis
Maturity
Demand forIngenuity
Scale of Crisis
Investment in learning innovation and creativity
Ingenuity gap as crisis emergeand mature
Global footprints
“As more people and businesses place greater strain on living systems, limits to prosperity are to be determined by natural capitalism rather than industrial prowess”
“Natural Capitalism: The Next Industrial Revolution.”Paul Hawken and Amory and Hunter Lovins (Earthscan, London 1999)
Equality in growth and consumption will take 4-5 planets to provide the resources required