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A Solution to the Decision-making Process: GIS-based System for Winthrop's First Responders and Decision Makers During a Flood Evacuation Test Case: Evacuating Winthrops Elderly Population University of Massachusetts College of Management Honors Thesis Researcher: Michele N. Karas May 23, 2008 Presentation Slide 2 Winthrop, Massachusetts Coastal Community Peninsula of 1.6 square miles 7 miles of shoreline Slide 3 Demographic Characteristics: Total Population 18,303 + 20,000 Elderly > 65 3,024; 16.5% + 4,177; 22.8% (US Census Bureau 2000) Slide 4 Emergency Management Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency State EOC; National Guard; MDC Officials 1990s changed to Emergency Management National level MEMA FEMA Slide 5 Planning on a Regional Level Tragedies of 9/11 November 2002, Homeland Security Act of 2002 January 2006, US Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff importance of regional cooperation UASI (Urban Area Security Initiatives) Metro-Boston Homeland Security and City of Bostons Mayor Coalition Slide 6 Winthrops Emergency Management Agency Slide 7 Decision Makers Emergency Management Director Incident Commander: Fire Chief advises & informs TM of incident Town Manager declares state of emergency & PIO Slide 8 First Responders Police Fire DPW EMT BOH IT Slide 9 Steps to Research Literature Review Hands-on Research & Analysis/Tools: Course work within the Science & Math College, since Jan 08: EEOS265 Computer Applications Geography EEOS261 Statistics for Earth & Geographic Sciences EEOS381 Applications of GIS Slide 10 Methodology GIS Data Model Overview Reality Conceptual Model Logical Model Physical Model Human-oriented Computer-oriented Increasing Abstraction Slide 11 Methodology: Reality Winthrop Coastal Storms Flooding Elderly residents Roadways Shelters location and accessibility Evacuation routes - existing Elevation Storm Surge Slide 12 Spatial Analysis: Answering What if scenarios Mapping where things are Mapping density Finding whats near by Patterns Normative Process: Develop or prescribe new or better designs (e.g. evacuation route) Slide 13 My Data Model: Objective Choose the best route of egress for evacuation route, Identify the area of residency of elderly population, Within Winthrop: Identify shelter in place and critical evacuation areas, Outside Winthrop: Identify shelters Slide 14 Data Collection Raster - Primary: Ortho/digital aerial photos Secondary: DEM Vector points/lines/polygons Secondary: shape files, data layers, tables, database Commonwealth of MA - MassGIS Office of Geographic and Environmental Information (Exec. Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs www.mass/gov/mgis Slide 15 Software used: Geodatabase & Map project ESRI: ArcGIS Desktop Version 9 ArcMap v9.2 ArcCatalog v9.2 ArcToolboxv 9.2 Slide 16 Winthrops Geodatabase: Geodatabase Feature Classes: Town polygon Town survey (lines) Storm Surge Roads (EOT) shapefile Census 2000 Block Group data Schools shapefile (points) Town Halls shapefile Police Departments shapefile Fire Departments shapefile Hospital & Long Care Facilities shapefile Slide 17 Slide 18 Other data/Symbology: Analysis Data Used: DEM Ortho/aerial Slide 19 Steps to Identify Winthrop Evacuation Route Bostons evacuation route Winthrops major roadways Winthrops points of exit Slide 20 Defining Winthrops evacuation route Fire Chief knowledge & history Past storms Slide 21 Defining Winthrops Elderly Population Census 2000 Blocks data Group > 65 yrs. Sub-group > 80 yrs. Slide 22 Slide 23 Slide 24 Slide 25 Slide 26 One Red & one Green Area: Review closer One Blue, one Green & one Yellow Area: in an area of categorized as > 6 ft above sea level. Persons in this area can be Sheltered in Place. Slide 27 Shelter in place Slide 28 Critical Evacuation Area Slide 29 Analysis: Schools for Shelters within Winthrop High School Middle School Fort Banks Elementary Cummings Elementary Criteria Location Accessibility Slide 30 Discarded School Shelter Sites High School Middle School Location Neither ADA Compliant Slide 31 Shelters in Winthrop Cummings School EOC Fort Banks DPW Bldg/Yard Slide 32 Transport to Shelters Outside of Winthrop High elevations Close to Winthrop Facilities: Care for elderly Food Medicine Amenities Slide 33 Don Orione Home 111 Orient Ave., East Boston Quigley Memorial Hospital 91 Crest Ave, Chelsea Soldiers Home 91 Crest Ave, Chelsea Slide 34 Q & A Thank you.