A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets,...
Transcript of A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets,...
A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET
Warsaw CBDCompletely transformed skylineCompletely transformed skyline…
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Warsaw CBDin just 20 years…in just 20 years
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Contents
INVESTMENT OVERVIEW
OFFICE MARKET
1
2
RETAIL MARKET
INDUSTRIAL MARKET
3
4
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1 INVESTMENT OVERVIEW
POLAND INVESTMENT VOLUMES
6 000€4.0 bn2015
4 000
5 000
ualy
(bn
€)
56%
€5.0 bn2016 FORECAST
3 000
4 000
Tran
sact
ions
annu 2015 CE deals concluded
in Poland
1 000
2 000
T
02002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
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Retail Office Industrial Other Total
POLAND PRIME YIELDS
5.50%OFFICE
5.25%RETAIL
6.75%INDUSTRIAL
11%
12%Prime Yields
9%
10%
6%
7%
8%
4%
5%
6%
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Retail Office Logistics
KEY 2016 YTD AND ANTICIPATED DEALS
HALA KOSZYKI & RENOMA FASHION OUTLET PORTFOLIOSector Retail Sector Retail
PRIME CORPORATE CENTRESector OfficeSector Retail
Location Warsaw & WrocławSeller Griffin Real EstateVolume EUR 250mn
Sector Retail Location nationwideSeller PeaksideVolume EUR 245mn
Sector OfficeLocation WarsawSeller Golub GethouseVolume EUR 90mn
GALERIA SŁONECZNA PZU PORTFOLIOQ22Sector OfficeLocation Warsaw
Sector Retail Location Radom
Sector IndustrialLocation nationwideS ll PZUSeller Echo/Griffin
Volume EUR 220mnSeller WhitestarVolume EUR 195mn
Seller PZUVolume EUR 155mn
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2 OFFICE MARKET
OFFICE MARKET
16%
18%
800 000
900 000
16%
18%
700 000
800 000
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
canc
y ra
te
sq m
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
canc
y ra
te
sq m
0%
2%
4%
6%
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F
Vac
0%
2%
4%
6%
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
Kraków Wrocław Tricity Katowice Poznań Łódź
Vac
• Record high demand driven by decreasing rents • High developers activity record supply of over 450 000 sqm expected in
• Unchanged BPO/SSC strong interest driven by access to qualified but competitive labour high language skills and modern office space
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F
Supply Absorption Take-up Vacancy
Kraków Wrocław Tricity Katowice Poznań Łódź
Stock 2015 Take-up Vacancy
• High developers activity – record supply of over 450,000 sqm expected in 2016
• Emerging locations – CBD West & CBD North• Supply level to decrease in 2017• Increased pressure on effective rents due to the oversupply very likely to
be continued in 2016
competitive labour, high language skills and modern office space availability
• Kraków classified as the top outsourcing destination in Europe and ranked 9th in the world
• Strong fundamentals for further development• Rents to remain stable in the mid term
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be continued in 2016• Oversupply may push the vacancy rate to ca. 16% during 2016
• Rents to remain stable in the mid-term• Increasing interest in secondary cities
3 RETAIL MARKET
FACTS & FIGURES
EUR 2 3 bn160 700 000EUR 2.3 bnEXPECTED 2016
INVESTMENT VOLUMEWarsaw
100
120
140
€/sq
m/m
onth
400 000
500 000
600 000
sqm
GLA
Plan (by the end of 2019)
UC
Łódź
Wrocław
Poznań
Tri-City
Szczecin
Kraków
Katowice40
60
80
Prim
e re
nt in
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
Supp
ly in
s
2015
2014
2016-2019 – big cities shall return as retail developers’ top destinations About 530,000 sqm GLA – total amount of modern retail area to be delivered
Tri-City201,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0% 4,5% 5,0%
Vacancy rate
0Warsaw Kraków Poznań TriCity Katowice Łódź Szczecin Wrocław
(Galeria Północna in Warsaw, Serenada in Kraków, Wroclavia in Wrocław, Forum Gdańsk)
Posnania – with 100,000 sqm GLA under construction it is the largest retailscheme under construction in Poland
in Warsaw in 2016 – 2019
Warsaw, Kraków and Silesia remain the most expensive destinations for the most attractive retail units
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Except for Warsaw, Poland’s top retail markets remain very similar with regards to prime rents, stock and vacancy rates
4 INDUSTRIAL MARKET
POLAND INDUSTRIAL MARKET
12%Warsaw 3 000 000
Take-up in Poland
6%
8%
10% 3,067,308 sqmTricity327,741 sqm
C t l P l d
Wrocław1,391,445 sqm
U Sil i1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
sq m
acan
cy
0%
2%
4%
Kraków212,712 sqm
Central Poland1,335,088 sqm
Poznań1,481,076 sqm
Upper Silesia1,849,898 sqm
-
500 000
1 000 000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1
s
Va
Warsaw remains the largest CE distribution hub Substantial pipeline with 630,000 sqm of modern warehousespace under construction
1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00 4,50 5,00 5,50 New deal Renewal of a deal Space extension Grand TotalHeadline Rent €/sqm/month
Increasing stake of regional industrial destinations in total Poland’sstock
Take-up increased by 20% in 2015
space under construction
Headline rents in the largest warehouse markets remains stable
Vacancy clusters mainly linked to older stock and/or less attractive
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locations
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