1

A Review of CPC’s Monitoring Efforts A Review of CPC’s Monitoring Efforts for the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)for the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)

Presentation for the Presentation for the

CFSR Science Advisory BoardCFSR Science Advisory Board

November 8, 2007November 8, 2007

2

CFSRR – What is at stake for CPC?CFSRR – What is at stake for CPC?

• A LOT!!!A LOT!!!

• At present, climate/ENSO, monitoring and prediction at CPC At present, climate/ENSO, monitoring and prediction at CPC depends on CDAS1 (how old is the model ?) and CFS depends on CDAS1 (how old is the model ?) and CFS Reforecasts.Reforecasts.

• Once the new CFSR(R) is complete CPC would want to move to Once the new CFSR(R) is complete CPC would want to move to a new 1981-2010 (30 yrs) WMO standard base period.a new 1981-2010 (30 yrs) WMO standard base period.

• CFSRR products will help us much with our Monthly/seasonal CFSRR products will help us much with our Monthly/seasonal forecasts of forecasts of

- T/P over US, - T/P over US,

• Develop Objective, Model based:Develop Objective, Model based:

- NOAA hurricane Outlooks,- NOAA hurricane Outlooks,

- Drought Outlooks, - Drought Outlooks,

• Monitoring and Prediction of Global Oceans/Global Monsoons! Monitoring and Prediction of Global Oceans/Global Monsoons! etc!etc!

• Quality of data set as compared to R1/R2 ?Quality of data set as compared to R1/R2 ?

– – as good an analyses as we can get.as good an analyses as we can get.

• CPC has extensive experience in monitoring R1/R2CPC has extensive experience in monitoring R1/R2

3

CPC’s Monitoring Philosophy CPC’s Monitoring Philosophy for the CFSRfor the CFSR

• Monitor for large scale errors against existing Monitor for large scale errors against existing observational and reanalysis datasets (e.g., R1, R2, observational and reanalysis datasets (e.g., R1, R2, ERA40;…)ERA40;…)

• Alert EMC if consistent (or abrupt) deviations from Alert EMC if consistent (or abrupt) deviations from observational and reanalysis occur !!!observational and reanalysis occur !!!

• Monitoring efforts will include:Monitoring efforts will include:

– Comparison of basic statistics (RMS, Correlation, …)Comparison of basic statistics (RMS, Correlation, …)

– Spatial mapsSpatial maps

– Hovmöller diagramsHovmöller diagrams

– Monitoring of regional climate indicesMonitoring of regional climate indices

– Time series of global variablesTime series of global variables

4

Categorization of CPC’s Monitoring Categorization of CPC’s Monitoring EffortsEfforts

• Dedicated Monitoring Leads (with help from others Dedicated Monitoring Leads (with help from others in CPC)in CPC)

• Time series of basic statistics (POC: Wesley Time series of basic statistics (POC: Wesley Ebisuzaki)Ebisuzaki)

• Stratospheric monitoring (POC: Craig Long)Stratospheric monitoring (POC: Craig Long)

• Tropospheric monitoring (POC: Muthuvel Chelliah)Tropospheric monitoring (POC: Muthuvel Chelliah)

• Surface monitoring (POC: Wanqiu Wang)Surface monitoring (POC: Wanqiu Wang)

• Ocean Monitoring (POC: Yan Xue)Ocean Monitoring (POC: Yan Xue)

Note: Others in EMC and CPC have their monitoring requirements included via the respective POC

5

Schematics of Data Availability to CPC for Monitoring

1 Jan 1979

31 Dec 1979

Available Data

On Sep 30 1979

Note: Dates in blue refer to date of the month the Reanalysis is currently at

Dates in red refer to beginning and end dates of the Reanalysis data that is available for monitoring

5 Mar 1980

30 Sep 1979

On Feb 05 1980

On Mar 05 1980

1 Feb 1980

1 Jan 1979

1 Jan 1980

1 Jan 1980

6

CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for Monitoring EffortsMonitoring Efforts

• Monthly means of all atmospheric variables Monthly means of all atmospheric variables contained in following datasets contained in following datasets (available both at the (available both at the original Gaussian grid resolution of 1152x576 and interpolated at original Gaussian grid resolution of 1152x576 and interpolated at 2.5x2.5 lat/lon grid)2.5x2.5 lat/lon grid)

– PGB files (2.5 x 2.5 degree)PGB files (2.5 x 2.5 degree)

– FLX files (T62 Gaussian grid)FLX files (T62 Gaussian grid)

– D3D filesD3D files

– IPV filesIPV files

• Monthly means of ocean fields at 1x1 lat/lon gridMonthly means of ocean fields at 1x1 lat/lon grid

7

CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for Monitoring Efforts –Contd..Monitoring Efforts –Contd..

• 6-Hourly6-Hourly datasets for the atmospheric variables datasets for the atmospheric variables (available both at (available both at the original Gaussian grid resolution of 1152x576 and interpolated at the original Gaussian grid resolution of 1152x576 and interpolated at 2.5x2.5 lat/lon grid)2.5x2.5 lat/lon grid)

– sfc. Pre, precipitable water, prcp, evap (hourly)sfc. Pre, precipitable water, prcp, evap (hourly)

– height at 5 given levels (200, 500, 700, 850, 1000)height at 5 given levels (200, 500, 700, 850, 1000)

– temp at 12 levels (1,2,5,10,50,100,150,200,500,700,850,1000)temp at 12 levels (1,2,5,10,50,100,150,200,500,700,850,1000)

– u-wind at 4 levels (1,2,5,10,50,100,150,200,500,700,850,1000)u-wind at 4 levels (1,2,5,10,50,100,150,200,500,700,850,1000)

– v-wind at 4 levels (200, 500, 850, 1000)v-wind at 4 levels (200, 500, 850, 1000)

– omega at 1 level (500)omega at 1 level (500)

– psi & chi at 4 levels (200,500,850,1000)psi & chi at 4 levels (200,500,850,1000)

– moisture (q) at 5 levels (1000,850,750,500,300)moisture (q) at 5 levels (1000,850,750,500,300)

– PV at 3 levels (450,550,650K)PV at 3 levels (450,550,650K)

– mslp, pwat, presfcmslp, pwat, presfc

– shtfl, lhtfl, u10m, v10m, prate, tmp2m, tmin, tmax, q2m, ustrs, shtfl, lhtfl, u10m, v10m, prate, tmp2m, tmin, tmax, q2m, ustrs, vstrs, dlwsfc, dswsfc, ulwsfc, uswsfc, ulwtoa, uswtoa, soil moisture vstrs, dlwsfc, dswsfc, ulwsfc, uswsfc, ulwtoa, uswtoa, soil moisture at 4 levels, gflux, snow depth, runoff, top soil temp (T62 Gaussian at 4 levels, gflux, snow depth, runoff, top soil temp (T62 Gaussian grid)grid)

8

CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for Monitoring Efforts – Contd..Monitoring Efforts – Contd..

• Daily datasets for the oceanic variables Daily datasets for the oceanic variables (available 1x1 (available 1x1 lat/lon grid)lat/lon grid)

– Depth of 20C isothermDepth of 20C isotherm

– Ocean heat content Ocean heat content

– Sea level heightSea level height

– Sea surface temperatureSea surface temperature

– Vertical velocity at 50-meter depthVertical velocity at 50-meter depth

– Ocean Current (u,v) at 15-meter depthOcean Current (u,v) at 15-meter depth

9

Comparison Datasets Assembled by Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC: Stratospherethe CPC: Stratosphere

• R2R2

– Temperature, Height, PV, U winds [100-10 hPa]Temperature, Height, PV, U winds [100-10 hPa]

• ERA40 (provided by EMC)ERA40 (provided by EMC)

– Temperature, Height, PV, U winds [100-1 hPa]Temperature, Height, PV, U winds [100-1 hPa]

• CPC AnalysisCPC Analysis

– Temperature, Heights (50,10,5,2,1 hpa monthly fields)Temperature, Heights (50,10,5,2,1 hpa monthly fields)

– Total ozone (monthly zonal means)Total ozone (monthly zonal means)

10

Comparison Datasets Assembled by Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC: Tropospherethe CPC: Troposphere

• R1, R2R1, R2

– Entire archiveEntire archive

– 6 hourly, daily, monthly6 hourly, daily, monthly

– All available levelsAll available levels

– 1979-present1979-present

• ERA 40 (to be made available by EMC)ERA 40 (to be made available by EMC)

11

Comparison Datasets Assembled by Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC: Surfacethe CPC: Surface

• R1 (rainfall, cloudiness, OLR, radiation fluxes)R1 (rainfall, cloudiness, OLR, radiation fluxes)

• R2 (rainfall, cloudiness, OLR, radiation fluxes)R2 (rainfall, cloudiness, OLR, radiation fluxes)

• CMAP (rainfall)CMAP (rainfall)

• ISCCP cloudinessISCCP cloudiness

• SRB (Surface Radiation Budget)SRB (Surface Radiation Budget)

• Leaky-bucket soil model outputLeaky-bucket soil model output

• GLDAS (soil moisture, evaporation, runoff)GLDAS (soil moisture, evaporation, runoff)

• GDAS sea ice fraction and thicknessGDAS sea ice fraction and thickness

• CPC T2mCPC T2m

• NA Regional Reanalysis (NARR) (snow depth, 10-40, 40-100, 100-200 soil NA Regional Reanalysis (NARR) (snow depth, 10-40, 40-100, 100-200 soil moisture)moisture)

• NOAA OLRNOAA OLR

12

Comparison Datasets Assembled by Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC: Oceanthe CPC: Ocean

• GODAS (monthly and pentad)GODAS (monthly and pentad)

• OI SST (monthly and pentad)OI SST (monthly and pentad)

• Altimetry seas surface height (1993-2007; monthly and pentad)Altimetry seas surface height (1993-2007; monthly and pentad)

• Oscar surface currents (1993-2007; monthly and pentad)Oscar surface currents (1993-2007; monthly and pentad)

• Ocean-Atmosphere Flux (WHOI; 1982-2002; monthly)Ocean-Atmosphere Flux (WHOI; 1982-2002; monthly)

• World Ocean Atlas 2001 (Climatology)World Ocean Atlas 2001 (Climatology)

13

Monitored Plots: Statistical Monitored Plots: Statistical ComparisonsComparisons

• Time series – quick way to see problems, changesTime series – quick way to see problems, changes

– goodness of fit (rms, correlation, maximum goodness of fit (rms, correlation, maximum difference) to other analyses (i.e., reanalyses, difference) to other analyses (i.e., reanalyses, observations)observations)

– bias (ex. look for satellite bias problems) bias (ex. look for satellite bias problems) maximum difference between adjacent grid maximum difference between adjacent grid points (gradient) looks for physical points (gradient) looks for physical “reasonableness”, e.g., ocean should be ice “reasonableness”, e.g., ocean should be ice covered but isn't will show as a large gradient in covered but isn't will show as a large gradient in the surface temperaturethe surface temperature

14

Monitored Plots: Statistical ComparisonsMonitored Plots: Statistical Comparisons

• These statistical comparisons will be broken down byThese statistical comparisons will be broken down by

– latitude band: global, 90S-60S, 60S-30S, 30S-30N, 20S-latitude band: global, 90S-60S, 60S-30S, 30S-30N, 20S-20N, 30N-60N, 60N-90N20N, 30N-60N, 60N-90N

– land, waterland, water

• Comparisons on daily, pentad (some obs), monthly dataComparisons on daily, pentad (some obs), monthly data

• The time series will span the monthly/yearly boundariesThe time series will span the monthly/yearly boundaries

• Only a few of the comparisons will be plotted but will Only a few of the comparisons will be plotted but will keep the data files for all the computed statistical keep the data files for all the computed statistical comparisons.comparisons.

15

Monitored Plots: StratosphereMonitored Plots: Stratosphere

• Time Series (refer to slides 12-13)Time Series (refer to slides 12-13)

– Temperature: Daily (12Z), NH, Trop, SH, zonal means : 50, 10, 5, 2, 1 hPa

– PV: Daily (12Z), NH, SH, zonal means : 450, 550, 650 K

• Time Series—IndicesTime Series—Indices

– QBO winds: (10N-10S U comp ) : Monthly : 50, 30, 20, 10 hPa : For Entire Length of Each Stream

– v*T* (40-70 N & S) : Daily: 100 hPa : For Each Year

• Spatial Maps (x-y)Spatial Maps (x-y)

– Total Ozone : Monthly

– Temperature : Monthly : 50, 10, 5, 2, 1 hPa

– Height : Monthly : 50, 10, 5, 2, 1 hPa

• Zonal MeansZonal Means

– Temperature (P vs lat) : Monthly : 1000 – 1 hPa

– U comp (P vs lat) : Monthly : 1000 – 1 hPa

– Ozone Mixing Ratio (P vs lat) : Monthly : 1000 – 1 hPa

• Hovmöller Hovmöller

– The Following are to be Maintained for Entire Length of Each Year

– Temperature (60-90 N & S) (P vs time) : Daily : 1000 – 1 hPa

– U comp (60-90 N & S) (P vs time) : Daily : 1000 – 1 hPa

– The Following are to be Maintained for Entire Length of Each Stream

– Total Ozone (lat vs time) : Monthly

– Temperature (lat vs time) : Monthly : 100, 70, 50, 30, 10, 5, 2, 1 hPa

– QBO Winds (P vs time) : (10N-10S U comp) : Monthly : 100 – 1 hPa

16

Monitored Plots: TroposphereMonitored Plots: Troposphere• Basic Time Series:Basic Time Series:

a) 6-hrly – a) 6-hrly – 1 month at a time:1 month at a time:

1)1) As CFSR is compared with say R1 (or R2 or ECMWF) plot As CFSR is compared with say R1 (or R2 or ECMWF) plot most statistical quantities, such as mean, rms difference, most statistical quantities, such as mean, rms difference, maximum difference, max gradient between successive maximum difference, max gradient between successive points, etc. over the globe 2) same as 1) but for different points, etc. over the globe 2) same as 1) but for different latitude bands.latitude bands.

b) Daily Time seriesb) Daily Time series – from beginning of calendar year to last – from beginning of calendar year to last day of current month -day of current month -1 year (max) at a time:1 year (max) at a time: same as under same as under a). a).

c) Monthly time series – from beginning of each run stream c) Monthly time series – from beginning of each run stream (at least 4 years)(at least 4 years): same as a) – If possible this time series : same as a) – If possible this time series could be extended to cover the entire CFSR period.could be extended to cover the entire CFSR period.

• Climate Signal Time Series—Indices:Climate Signal Time Series—Indices: (PNA, NAO, 850/200 mb (PNA, NAO, 850/200 mb zonal wind indices over Nino regions, RSOI, EQSOI: zonal wind indices over Nino regions, RSOI, EQSOI: based on based on CFSR monthly mean dataCFSR monthly mean data as compared with the same from as compared with the same from CDAS1 and CDAS2.CDAS1 and CDAS2.

17

Monitored Plots: Troposphere (cont.)Monitored Plots: Troposphere (cont.)• Spatial Maps (x-y):Spatial Maps (x-y):

a) Daily 3 panel map (CFSR/CDAS1/CDAS2)a) Daily 3 panel map (CFSR/CDAS1/CDAS2) of selected of selected variables such as variables such as 1)1) SLP, SLP, 2-3)2-3) 850/200 mb vector V, 850/200 mb vector V, 4)4) 500mb Geop.H, 500mb Geop.H, 5)5) 1000 mb specific humidity q, – print 1000 mb specific humidity q, – print cor/rms at top, cor/rms at top,

b) Monthly mean 3 panel maps b) Monthly mean 3 panel maps of selected variables of selected variables (CFSR/CDAS1/CDAS2)(CFSR/CDAS1/CDAS2)

c) Full Gaussian resolution maps of selected variablesc) Full Gaussian resolution maps of selected variables (nothing (nothing to compare)to compare)

• Zonal Means (x-p x-sections):Zonal Means (x-p x-sections): based on monthly mean databased on monthly mean data for for (1000-10mb) u, v, T, H, and q(1000-300mb) – at lats Eq., 15 (1000-10mb) u, v, T, H, and q(1000-300mb) – at lats Eq., 15 deg. N/S, and 45 deg. N/S - for CFSR as compared with CDAS1 deg. N/S, and 45 deg. N/S - for CFSR as compared with CDAS1 and CDAS2. and CDAS2. Diabatic heating rates (convective heating, Diabatic heating rates (convective heating, moistening, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation)moistening, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation)

• Hovmöller (x-t; y-t x-sections):Hovmöller (x-t; y-t x-sections): at Eq, 30 deg. N/S, and 60 deg. at Eq, 30 deg. N/S, and 60 deg. N/S. (for x-t plots), and at 0/90/180/270 deg. longitudes (for y-t N/S. (for x-t plots), and at 0/90/180/270 deg. longitudes (for y-t plots) - plots) - based on daily mean databased on daily mean data from beginning of calendar from beginning of calendar year – 500 mb omega, 850 mb q, 200 mb H from CFSR year – 500 mb omega, 850 mb q, 200 mb H from CFSR compared against CDAS1 and CDAS2, MJO (vel. pot.).compared against CDAS1 and CDAS2, MJO (vel. pot.).

18

Monitored Plots: SurfaceMonitored Plots: Surface

• Time Series (for all variables as those for spatial maps; same frequency Time Series (for all variables as those for spatial maps; same frequency as the spatial maps)as the spatial maps)

– Basic Statistics (see slide 12-13)Basic Statistics (see slide 12-13)

• Global mean time Series (6-hourly without verification)Global mean time Series (6-hourly without verification)

– Dry surface pressureDry surface pressure

– Surface pressureSurface pressure

– Precipitable waterPrecipitable water

– EvaporationEvaporation

– PrecipitationPrecipitation

– E-PE-P

• Spatial Maps (x-y) (CFSR together with verifications)Spatial Maps (x-y) (CFSR together with verifications)

– Daily mean (North American: snow depth, 10-40, 40-100, 100-200 Daily mean (North American: snow depth, 10-40, 40-100, 100-200 soil moisture)soil moisture)

– Pentad mean (Global: precipitation, OLR)Pentad mean (Global: precipitation, OLR)

– Monthly mean (Global: precipitation, cloudiness, OLR, solar Monthly mean (Global: precipitation, cloudiness, OLR, solar radiation, longwave radiation, T2m, evaporation, runoff, sea-ice radiation, longwave radiation, T2m, evaporation, runoff, sea-ice fraction, sea-ice thickness, surface pressure)fraction, sea-ice thickness, surface pressure)

19

Monitored Plots: OceanMonitored Plots: Ocean

• Time series – Mean, RMS, AC for each ocean basinTime series – Mean, RMS, AC for each ocean basin

(all variables listed under spatial maps, Monthly and Pentad(all variables listed under spatial maps, Monthly and Pentad))

• Time series – Indices (Monthly and Pentad)Time series – Indices (Monthly and Pentad)

– Pacific: Niño Indices; Heat content; Warm Water Volume; TauxPacific: Niño Indices; Heat content; Warm Water Volume; Taux

– Indian: Dipole Mode Index; heat content; Warm Water Volume; TauxIndian: Dipole Mode Index; heat content; Warm Water Volume; Taux

– Atlantic: TNA, TSA, TNA-TSA, ATL3 SSTAtlantic: TNA, TSA, TNA-TSA, ATL3 SST; ; heat content; Warm Water Volume; heat content; Warm Water Volume; TauxTaux

– Coastal upwelling indices for California Current EcosystemCoastal upwelling indices for California Current Ecosystem

– Global and Regional basin average heat content, SST, SSHGlobal and Regional basin average heat content, SST, SSH

• Vertical cross sections of T, U, V, etc. at equator, 5N, 5S, 20N, 20S, 40N, 40S, etc.Vertical cross sections of T, U, V, etc. at equator, 5N, 5S, 20N, 20S, 40N, 40S, etc.

• Spatial maps (Monthly and Pentad)Spatial maps (Monthly and Pentad)

– Temperature, Salinity (5-2000m, selected levels)Temperature, Salinity (5-2000m, selected levels)

– Zonal current (15m); W (50m); heat content, D20C, SSHZonal current (15m); W (50m); heat content, D20C, SSH

– Taux and Tauy; Latent and Sensible Heat FluxTaux and Tauy; Latent and Sensible Heat Flux

• Hovmöller Diagrams (Pentad)Hovmöller Diagrams (Pentad)

– Eq. Temperature; zonal current (15m); heat content; D20C; Taux, TauyEq. Temperature; zonal current (15m); heat content; D20C; Taux, Tauy

20

21

22

Thank You!Thank You!