A Remote Sensing Study of Some Impacts of Global Warming on … · 2012-02-25 · 34 chapter 3 a...

A Remote Sensing Study of Some Impacts of Global Warming on the Arab Region

31

EMAN GHONEIM

CHAPTER 3

I. INTRODUCTION

Global warming is one of the most serious chal-lenges facing us today. Under the projected cli-mate changes, many parts of the planet willbecome warmer. Droughts, floods and otherforms of extreme weather will become more fre-quent, threatening food supplies, economicassets, and human lives. Plants and animalswhich cannot adapt to the changed weather con-

ditions will die. Sea levels are also rising and willcontinue to do so, forcing millions of people incoastal zones to migrate inland.

This study uses remote sensing techniques todepict the consequences on the Arab world of var-ious climate change impact scenarios, rangingfrom conservative to extreme. It neither attemptsto endorse a specific level of impact, a matter dis-cussed in other chapters of the report, nor attempts

A REMOTE SENSING STUDY OF IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE ARAB REGIONCHAPTER 332

SIMULATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS AT DIFFERENT LEVELSFIGURE 1

to be inclusive of all impacts of climate changewhich can be traced using remote sensing.

In light of the uncertainty surrounding the exactdynamics of climate change and scientific projec-tions, this study takes into account the rangefrom 1 m to 5 m SLR, without ascribing partic-ular likelihoods to any particular value withinthat range; as such, the study seeks more to illu-minate the potential disastrous ramifications of

SLR, whatever the exact SLR will be.

II. IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THEARAB COUNTRIES

The past century has witnessed a 17 cm rise inthe sea level (IPCC, 2001) at a mean rate of 1.75mm per year (Miller and Douglas, 2004). TheIPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report published in

ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 33

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2007 predicted sea-level rise of up to 59 cm by2100, excluding effects of potential dynamicchanges in ice flow (IPCC, 2007). Taking intoaccount the full “likely” range of predictedincreases in temperature, SLR could even beamplified to up to 1.4 m by the year 2100(Rahmstorf, 2007). Other researchers have pre-dicted between 5-6 meters SLR in the event ofthe West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse (Tol et al.,2006). As an indication of recent upward revi-sion of projected climate change scenarios,Christopher Field, an American member of theIPCC and founding director of the CarnegieInstitution’s Department of Global Ecology atStanford University, said at the annual meetingof the American Association for theAdvancement of Science in February 2009 that

the pace of climate change exceeds predictions, asemissions since 2000 have outpaced the estimatesused in IPCC 2007 report.

Without any doubt, SLR is a global threat. Withvarying predictions on the extent of SLR, basedon different variables which cannot all be fore-seen, there is a near consensus on the need toapply precautionary principles to global warm-ing. This explains why studies of impact, mainlythose carried out by the World Bank, considerSLR scenarios between 1-5 meters. The threatemerges from the fact that a large percentage ofthe earth’s population inhabits vulnerable coastalzones. About 400 million people live within 20km of a coast, worldwide (Gornitz, V., 2000).Worryingly, if the sea level rises by only 1 m, it


SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO AT 1 METERFIGURE 2

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SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO AT 2 METERSFIGURE 3

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would affect more than 100 million individuals(Douglas and Peltier, 2002). “The melting orcollapse of ice sheets would eventually threatenland which today is home to 1 in every 20 peo-ple” (Stern, 2006).

The coastal zone of the Arab world is no excep-tion to the threat of SLR. Similar to many partsof the world, capital cities and major towns ofArab countries lie along the coast or on estuaries.Their expansions are extremely rapid and, there-fore, these metropolises are at great risk of SLR.

To view more closely the effect of SLR on theArabian coastline and highlight those countrieswith high potential risk of SLR, a simulation forSLR has been conducted using the Geographical

Information System (GIS) and the Shuttle RadarTopography Mission (SRTM) data. These data,which are widely used in many scientific investi-gations, are considered to comprise the bestDigital Elevation Model (DEM) on a global scalewith consistency and overall accuracy (Suna etal., 2003; Ghoneim and El-Baz, 2007, Ghoneimet al., 2007). Figures 1 to 5 show results of thissimulation.

Under the 1 m SLR scenario, the simulationreveals that approximately 41,500 km2 of the ter-ritory of the Arab countries would be directlyimpacted by the rise of the sea level. Projectedincreases in sea levels will displace a quicklygrowing population into more concentratedareas. At least 37 million people (~11%) will be



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directly affected by SLR of 1 meter. In the case of2, 3 and 4 m SLR scenarios, around 60,000,80,700 and 100,800 km2, respectively, of theArab coastal region will be seriously impacted. Inthe extreme case of 5 m SLR, such impact will beat its highest, as it is estimated that up to 113,000km2 (0.8%) of the coastal territory would beinundated by sea water (Figure 1-5).

Potential impacts of SLR, however, are notuniformly distributed across the Arab region.From Figure 6a it is obvious that the SLRimpact will be particularly severe in some coun-tries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Algeria andMorocco, whereas it will have a lesser impacton others such as Sudan, Syria, and Jordan.

Egypt will be by far the most impacted countryof the Arab world; at least 12 million Egyptianswill be displaced with the 5 m SLR scenario. Infact, approximately one third of the Arab pop-ulation impacted will be from Egypt alone. Atthe nation level, the United Arab Emirates(UAE), Qatar and Bahrain will witness thehighest SLR effect in terms of the percentage ofpopulation at risk from the total country pop-ulation. Here, we project that more than 50%of the population of each country will beimpacted by 5m SLR (Figure 6b). The currentanalysis indicates that Bahrain and Qatarwould experience a significant reduction ofabout 13.4 % and 6.9%, respectively, of theirland as a result of the 5 m SLR scenario.


POPULATION AT RISK AT EXTREME 5 METERS SEA LEVEL RISEFIGURE 6

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III. COASTAL URBANIZATION

There are factors – both human and natural –that might contribute and intensify the impact ofthe SLR. For example, for most parts of the Arabworld, rapid and uncontrolled urbanization isoccurring at a large scale along the vulnerablecoastal areas. Continuation of such urbanizationpatterns will draw still greater populations intothese low-lying hazardous zones and, conse-quently, SLR would most likely have a profoundimpact on the people and on infrastructure devel-opment in the coastal areas of the region.

Monitoring historical changes in urbanizationcan be used to identify future trends in urban

expansion independent from climate change, andtherefore suggest places that will need to betterincorporate climate risks into planning processes.Based on satellite image classification and changedetection analysis of the present study (Figure 7),it is estimated, for example, that in Dubai, urbangrowth (including green areas) has almost tripledits surface area in less than 20 years (between1984 and 2003). With the addition of the newurbanized area of the Dubai Palm Islands project,the percentage of people and infrastructure likelyto be affected by coastal inundation or floodingwill be immense.

In order to estimate the total extent of the areasat risk by SLR in more detail, a Digital


BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGE CLASSIFICATION AND CHANGE DETECTIONANALYSIS, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT IN ONE OF THE STUDY SITES IN THE UAE,URBAN GROWTH HAS EXPANDED ALMOST THREE TIMES IN AREA (FROM 78.54KM2 TO 226.11 KM2) DURING THE LAST 20 YEARS (1984 TO 2003). GREEN LANDSOF THE SAME STUDY SITE HAVE ALSO DOUBLED IN THEIR SURFACE AREA (FROM26.62 KM2 TO 47.57 KM2) DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

FIGURE 7

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Elevation Model (DEM), for the coastal zone ofthe three Emirates of Sharjah, Ajman and UmmAl-Quwain, has been constructed from topo-graphic maps. Based on the derived-DEM, itwas found that approximately 332 km2 of theland area of the three Emirates lies below 10 mand is hence highly vulnerable to SLR. Resultsreveal that a projected SLR of 1 m would inun-date approximately 8.1% of the Emirate ofAjman, 1.2% of the Emirate of Sharjah and5.9% of the Emirate of Umm Al-Quwain(Figure 8b). With the 5 meter scenario, theseflooded lands will be increased to reach about24%, 3.2% and 10% for the three Emirates,respectively (Figure 8c).

IV. IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ONTHE NILE DELTA

In the Arab region, locations that occupy low-lying areas, such as deltaic plains, will face evenmore serious problems due to SLR. River deltasare particularly vulnerable since increases in sealevel are compounded by land subsidence andhuman interference such as sediment trappingby dams (Church et al., 2008). In the Arabworld, the two major deltaic areas are that ofthe Nile River in Egypt and the Tigris and


DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL OF THE THREE EMIRATES OF SHARJAH, AJMAN ANDUMM AL-QUWAIN WHICH SHOWS THAT A SEA LEVEL RISE OF 1 METER WOULDINUNDATE 1.2% OF SHARJAH, 8.1% OF AJMAN AND 5.9% OF UMM AL-QUWAIN.

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ZERO METER SLRFIGURE 8b

UNDER THE EXTREME CASE OF5 METER SLR SCENARIO, 3.2%OF SHARJAH, 24% OF AJMANAND 10% OF UMM AL-QUWAIN LANDS WOULD BEINUNDATED BY SEA WATER.

FIGURE 8C

Euphrates in Iraq. These locations are highlypopulated areas and among the most importantagricultural lands in the region. As illustratedfrom the computed SLR (see Figure 1), thesetwo areas are regionally the most vulnerable. Infact, impacts will be much bigger when com-bined with increase in the incidence of extremeevents on low-level areas.

The total area of Egypt is slightly over one mil-lion km?, most of which has an arid and hyper-arid climate. Roughly 94% of Egypt’s land massis made up of desert. The fast growing popula-tion, now approaching about 81 million, inhab-its less than 6% of the country’s land area. Thisland area, which is located in the Nile Delta andthe Nile valley, contains the most productiveagricultural land and hence the main foodsource for the entire country. The Nile Delta,which is about 24,900 km2 in area, aloneaccounts for about 65% of Egypt agriculturalland. This delta, once the largest depocenter inthe Mediterranean, is an extreme example of aflat low-lying area at high risk to SLR (El-Raey,1997). The delta is presently retreating due to

accelerating erosion along the coastline. Thishas generally been attributed to both humanand natural factors. The construction of theAswan High Dam (1962) and the entrapmentof a large amount of sediments behind it, inLake Nasser, are major factors causing erosionin the Nile Delta. The entrapment of anotherconsiderable quantity of Nile sediments by theextremely dense network of irrigation anddrainage channels and in the wetland of thenorthern delta has also contributed greatly tothe delta’s erosion (Stanley, 1996). At present,only a little amount of the Nile River sedimentsis carried seaward to replenish the Nile Deltacoast at its northern margin. Even the verysmall remaining amount of the delta sedimentpresently reaching the Mediterranean isremoved by the strong easterly sea currents.

Moreover, the delta’s subsidence of about 1 to5 mm per year (Stanley, 2005), due to both nat-ural causes and heavy groundwater extraction, isinfluencing the coastal erosion tremendously.Such coastal impact is evident in satelliteimages, where coastal erosion can be clearly


LANDSAT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW VAST COASTAL EROSION IN THE NILE DELTAWITH A RETREATING RATE OF UP TO 100 METERS PER YEAR IN SOME AREAS

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seen close to the Rosetta and Damiettapromontories (Figure 9). Analysis of Landsatimages reveals that the promontory of Rosetta,in particular, has lost approximately 9.5 km2 inarea (Figure 9b) and its coastline has retreated 3km inland in only 30 years (1972 - 2003). Thismeans that this part of the delta is retreating atan alarming rate of about 100 m per year.

Under SLR scenarios, much more of the NileDelta will be lost forever. Remote sensing andGIS analysis depict areas of the Nile Delta atrisk of 1 m SLR and the extreme case of 5 mSLR (Figure 10). Based on this figure, it is esti-mated that a sea level rise of only 1 m wouldflood much of the Nile Delta, inundating aboutone third (~34%) of its land, placing importantcoastal cities such as Alexandria, Idku,Damietta and Port-Said at a great risk. In thiscase, it is estimated that about 8.5 % of thenation’s population (~7 million people) will bedisplaced.

In the extreme case of 5 m SLR, more than half(~58%) of the Nile Delta will be facing destruc-tive impacts, which would threaten at least 10major cities (among them Alexandria,Damanhur, Kafr-El-Sheikh, Damietta,Mansura and Port-Said), flooding productiveagricultural lands, forcing about 14% of thecountry’s population (~11.5 million people)into more concentrated areas to the southernregion of the Nile Delta, and thus would con-tribute to worsening their living standards.

V. IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ANDURBAN HEAT ISLAND

The southern part of the Nile Delta is present-ly suffering from the uncontrolled urbanizationof the city of Cairo, the capital city of Egypt.Results of the current investigation show thatthe total built-up area in Cairo has expandedsignificantly over the last few decades. The high


SLR SCENARIOS OF 1-5 METERS IN THE NILE DELTA REGIONFIGURE 10

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economic growth and employment opportuni-ties in this city caused an influx of labour migra-tion. Local increase of population plus migrantscaused the city to expand rapidly and in anuncontrollable fashion. As shown in Figure 11,the Cairo metropolitan area has doubled in sizein less than 20 years (1984-2003). Presently,the city has a population of about 17.5 millionpeople, making it the largest and most populousmetropolitan area in the Arab world.

As Cairo grows outward, a host of problematicissues are raised. The first of these issues is theloss of prime cultivated lands to urban expan-sion and development, due to the increase inhousing demand. Analysis shows that about12% (~62 km2) of the farmland areas in thevicinity of Cairo were lost in 18-year time spanbetween 1984 and 2002 (Figure 12). Manylarge cities of the MENA region (for exampleBeirut, Figures 14 and 15) show the same dis-turbing trend of green cover and agriculturalland loss for urban expansion. Once these landshave been converted to urban use, green areasand agricultural lands are generally lost forever,cutting down the carbon sinks, and in the longterm could cause food scarcity.

Another problematic issue that relates to urban-

ization is the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI),for which the temperatures of central urbanlocations are several degrees higher than thoseof nearby rural areas of similar elevation.


CAIRO METROPOLITAN AREA HAS DOUBLED IN LESS THAN 20 YEARSFIGURE 11

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12% OF THE FARMLANDAREAS IN THE VICINITY OFCAIRO WERE LOST IN 20 YEARS

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RAPID URBAN GROWTH IN CAIRO BETWEEN 1984-2002 CAUSED SIGNIFICANTRISE IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SHOWN IN RED COLOR), REFERRED TO ASURBAN HEAT ISLAND (UHI) EFFECT

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Urbanization can have significant effects onlocal weather and climate (Landsberg, 1981),which in turn can contribute greatly to globalwarming. Urban expansion usually arises at theexpense of vegetation cover when open space isconverted to buildings, roads, and other infra-structure. Urban materials used to build thesestructures do not have the same thermal prop-erties as vegetation cover, and consequently, canlargely influence the local urban climate. Theurban geometry of a city can increase surfacetemperatures as well by obstructing air flow andpreventing cooling by convection.

Studies on surface temperature characteristics ofurban areas using satellite remote sensing datahave been conducted primarily using the ther-mal-infrared band from Landsat EnhancedThematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data. As illus-trated in Figure 13, Cairo shows a significantrise in surface temperature with a general trendof warmer urban areas versus cooler surround-ing cultivated land.

In the future, urban climate change will be ofimportance to a larger and larger number of resi-dents of the Arab world. With such a significantand rising fraction of the Arab world’s populationconcentrated in urban areas, local climatic effectswill be felt by a great number of people.

VI. DUST STORMS IN THE ARAB DESERTS

Aerosol pollution caused by dust storms canmodify cloud properties to reduce or preventprecipitation in the polluted region. Aerosolcontaining black carbon can impact the climateand possibly reduce formation of clouds. Thedecrease in precipitation from clouds affectedby desert dust can cause drier soil, which in turnraises more dust into the air, consequently pro-viding a potential feedback loop to furtherdecrease rainfall. Moreover, anthropogenicchanges of land use exposing the topsoil can ini-tiate such a desertification feedback process.(Rosenfeld et al., 2001)

Urbanization not only increases the local tem-perature but also creates industrial districts thatcause atmospheric pollution and reduce localair quality. With the continuous build-up of cli-mate change emissions in the atmosphere fromunregulated industrial emissions, many desertregions will get hotter and drier in a phenome-non called the amplification effect; that is,already hot and dry places on Earth will becomeeven more so. Consequently, dust storms in thedesert will become more frequent and intense.

Research shows that dust storms are increasing

in frequency in specific parts of the world,including Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Forexample, the annual dust production hadincreased tenfold in the last 50 years in manyparts of North Africa. Dust storms are alsoaccelerating in the Arab region due to the factthat local soil cover is being loosened by off-road vehicles (e.g., the effect of the Iraq wars),livestock grazing, and road development for oiland gas production, particularly in the Gulfregion.


EXPANSION OF URBANIZATION IN COSMOPOLITAN BEIRUT BETWEEN 1984 AND2006: 15.8% OF THE GREEN COVER WAS LOST

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The availability of large and daily coveragesatellite imagery by, for instance, theMODIS Terra and Aqua sensors enable usto monitor dust storms on a daily basis andidentify their main source globally. Forexample, as shown in Figure 16a, a thicksnake of yellowish dust originating from theborder of Iraq with a southwest movingfront can be clearly seen in one of theMODIS-Aqua images (acquired in May2005). This storm is so thick that it hides alarge part of the Red Sea beneath it. Imageclassification accentuates such phenomenaand reveals the mega dimension of such duststorms; Figure 16b shows a storm whichreached up to 1700 km in length. Thisstorm crossed Saudi Arabia and all the waypast the green ribbon of the Nile Valley tothe western desert of Egypt.

Another example of a mega dust-storm iscaptured by a MODIS-Terra image(acquired in May 2004). Here, a thick pallof sand and dust can be seen blown out fromthe Iranian Desert over the Gulf and engulf-ing Kuwait, the eastern coast of SaudiArabia, Bahrain, Qatar and United ArabEmirates (see Figure 16a).


16(a), LEFT: A MODIS-AQUA IMAGERY SHOWS A MEGA DUST STORMORIGINATING FROM IRAQ IN 2005 16(a), RIGHT: A MODIS-TERRA IMAGERYILLUSTRATES A THICK PALL OF SAND AND DUST BLOWING FROM THE IRANIANDESERT IN 2004 16(b): SATELLITE IMAGE CLASSIFICATION DEMONSTRATES THEMEGA DIMENSION OF A DUST STORM THAT REACHED 1700 KM IN LENGTH. THISSTORM CROSSED SAUDI ARABIA PAST THE GREEN RIBBON OF THE NILE VALLEYTO THE WESTERN DESERT OF EGYPT

FIGURES

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VII. CONCLUSION

In the Arab world, segments of coastal areas areimportant and highly populated centres of indus-try, manufacturing and commerce. With its near-ly 34,000 km of coastline, the Arab world is sus-ceptible to sea level rise. The potential exposure ofmany of its countries and cities such asAlexandria, Dubai and many more to the impactof sea level rise may be fairly significant, based ontoday’s socio-economic condition in coastal areas.After accounting for future development andpopulation growth in these regions, sea level risehas been shown to pose important policy ques-tions regarding present and future developmentplans and investment decisions.

Notably, urbanized sandy coasts have been exten-sively cited as particularly vulnerable if futuredevelopment is concentrated close to the shore-line and if sensitive ecosystems exist in close prox-imity to these urbanized areas. Such regions willexperience problems such as inundation, coastalerosion and impeded drainage. Moreover, thecontinuing rapid and dense urban developmentof many areas in the Arab world would result in adramatic alteration of the land surface, as naturalvegetation is removed and replaced by non-evap-orating, non-transpiring surfaces. Under such cir-cumstances, surface temperature of these areaswill rise by several degrees. On the long term,such urban Heat Island effect (UHI) could havesevere negative consequences on the local weatherof the Arab region, which in turn would con-tribute significantly to global warming.

Furthermore, the increasing frequency of duststorms is one of the serious environmental chal-lenges facing the Arab region. Such storms wouldinduce soil loss, decrease of precipitation and agri-cultural productivity, dramatic reduction of airquality and ultimately affect humanhealth.Although it seems that we are not totally preparedto face all such destructive effects of the SLR, UHIand dust storms, recent advances in remote sens-ing, increased availability of high resolution spaceimagery and the accessibility to more detaileddatasets of digital elevation, population and landcover-use, have all the potential to provideimproved surveillance of such negative effects andtheir associated impacts on the entire Arab world.Such observational data can then be used as a solidbasis upon which policies could be made.


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Douglas, B., R. Peltier, (2002). ‘The puzzle of globalsea level rise’. Physics Today, 55 (3): 35-39.

El-Raey, A. (1997).’ Vulnerability assessment of thecoastal zone of the Nile delta of Egypt, to the impactsof sea level rise’. Ocean & Coastal Management, 37(1): 29-40.

Ghoneim, E. (2008). ‘Optimum groundwater locationsin the northern Unites Arab Emirates’. InternationalJournal of Remote Sensing, 29 (20): 5879-5906.

Ghoneim, E. and El-Baz, F. (2007). ‘The application ofradar topographic data to mapping of a mega-paleodrainage in the Eastern Sahara’. Journal of AridEnvironments, 69: 658-675

Ghoneim, E., C. Robinson, and F. El-Baz, (2007).‘Relics of ancient drainage in the eastern Sahararevealed by radar topography data’. InternationalJournal of Remote Sensing, 28 (8): 1759-1772

Gornitz, V. (2000). Coastal Populations, Topography,and Sea Level Rise. NASA GISS, Science Briefs.

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Landsberg, H.E. (1981). The Urban Climate. NewYork: Academic Press.

Miller, L., and B. Douglas (2004). ‘Mass and volumecontributions to twentieth-century global sea levelrise’. Nature, 428: 406-409.

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REFERENCES


Images produced and analyzed for AFED 2009 Reportby E. Ghoneim at the Center for Remote Sensing,Boston University.

NOTE

Stern, Nicholas (2006). Stern Review on theEconomics of Climate Change. Report to the PrimeMinister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer on theEconomics of Climate Change. UK.

Suna, G., K.J. Ranson, V.I. Kharuk, and K. Kovac(2003), ‘Validation of surface height from shuttle radartopography mission using shuttle laser altimeter’.Remote Sensing of Environment, 88: 401-411.

Tol, R.S.J., M. Bohn, T.E. Downing, M.L. Guillerminet,E. Hizsnyik, R. Kasperson, K. Lonsdale, C. Mays, andCo-authors (2006). ‘Adaptation to five metres of sea-level rise’, Journal of Risk Research, 9: 467-482.

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