A Regional Prototype System for a National Problem

PowerPoint Presentation

A Regional Prototype System for a National ProblemChesapeake Inundation Prediction SystemBridging the Gap from Forecast to Impact

Presented to:MARACOOS Annual Meeting15 December 2011

Company Confidential/Proprietary1Good Afternoon...Im Mike Koterba, a Hydrologist at the U S Geological Survey, and the representative for theUSGS, an affiliate member organization in CBOS. I also Chair the CBOS Affiliate (chiefly, Federal Agency) MemberOrganizations. Im here today to present a brief overview of the CBOS Chesapeake Inundation PredictionSystem or CIPS. CIPS is a CBOS three-year user-driven prototype development project, funded by a NOAA CSCIOOS grant, to provide Local NWS Forecast Offices at Wakefield and Sterling VA and Mt. Holly NJ the potentialcapability to predict high resolution wind and barometric fields and storm surge inundation throughout the CB.On behalf of CBOS, I appreciate your attending this conference and providing us the opportunity to speak toall of you today about CIPS.

What Emergency Managers Get Now

CurrentTextStorm Surge Forecast2What Emergency Managers WantWhere will it flood?

When will it flood?

How deep will it be?

How long will it last?

What is the uncertainty in the forecast?

Forecast Impact3

From ForecastTo ImpactMATURING TECHNOLOGY Regional scale atmospheric wind forecast modelVery high-resolution hydrodynamic models with land flooding Very high-resolution land elevation data (LIDAR) Emerging GIS and visualization capabilities for integrated, high-resolution pictures and productsBridging the GapCompany Confidential/Proprietary4

Project Management: Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS)/Old Dominion UniversityChesapeake Research ConsortiumAtmospheric Modeling and Validation:NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices Wakefield, VA; Sterling, VA; Mt. Holly, NJWeatherFlow, Inc.Hydrodynamic and Hydrologic Modeling and Validation:Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & MaryUniversity of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES) Horn Point LaboratoryNOAA NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast CenterOverland Inundation Validation:USGS Water Science Centers in VA and MDUSGS Office of Surface Water, Reston, VAVisualization and Validation: Noblis, Inc.Economic Valuation and User Engagement: UMCES Chesapeake Bay LaboratoryCBOS/Old Dominion UniversityData Management and Communications: NOAA Chesapeake Bay OfficeChesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS) Partners

Company Confidential/Proprietary5CIPS ComponentsForecast wind fieldsForecast major river dischargeForecaston-land floodingVisualize on-land floodingNWS Weather Forecast OfficeNWS officesWeatherFlowMiddle Atlantic River Forecast CenterVIMSUMCESNoblisGuidance to brief emergency managementData Management System NOAA CBO, ASATransmit forecastTransmit forecastRetrieve wind field andriver discharge forecastsTransmit flooding forecastRetrieve flooding forecastTransmit visualized flooding forecastRetrieve visualized flooding forecastValidate land floodingUSGSEconomic Evaluation - UMCES

AlexandriaRichmondNorfolkAnnapolisWashingtonHamptonBaltimoreCIPS Forecast DemonstrationVeterans Day Noreaster11-13 November 2009Potomac RiverJames RiverChesapeake BayDelaware BaySusquehanna River7NorIda Storm Tide - NOAACO-OPS Data Nov 10-13, 2009

Watch IssuedWarning IssuedMinorModerateMajorTueWedThuFri8Coastal Flood WatchIssued 4 AM Tue Nov 10, 2009408 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009 ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL ALLOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THE APPROACHING NEW PHASE OF THE MOON...IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES OF AROUND 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE IN THE WEEK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.9Forecast Impact10

Flooded AreaAll three forecastsTwo of three forecastsOne of three forecastsHamptonNewport NewsNorfolkVirginia BeachJames RiverPoquosonPortsmouthLangley AFBChesapeakeHampton RoadsChesapeake Bay Bridge-TunnelChesapeake BayAtlantic OceanNaval Base NorfolkNorIda Maximum FloodingCompany Confidential/ProprietaryForecast Validation11Poquoson

Flooded AreaAll three forecastsTwo of three forecastsOne of three forecastsCompany Confidential/ProprietaryFlooding Forecast with Uncertainty12

Flooded AreaAll three forecastsTwo of three forecastsOne of three forecastsLangley AFBCompany Confidential/ProprietaryFlooding Forecast with Uncertainty13


Flooded AreaAll three forecastsTwo of three forecastsOne of three forecastsPoquosonHamptonNewport NewsCompany Confidential/ProprietaryFlooding Forecast with Uncertainty15




Flooded AreaAll three forecastsTwo of three forecastsOne of three forecastsWhere Jay Titlow LivesCompany Confidential/Proprietary

Jays HomePoquoson High SchoolPublic Works DeptPolice DeptFire DeptPublic Works DeptFire DeptFlooding Forecast with Uncertainty20

Jays HomePublic Works DeptFire DeptPolice DeptPoquoson High SchoolFlooded AreaAll three forecastsTwo of three forecastsOne of three forecastsCompany Confidential/ProprietaryFlooding Forecast with Uncertainty21

Jays HomePublic Works DeptFire DeptPolice DeptPoquoson High SchoolFlooded AreaAll three forecastsTwo of three forecastsOne of three forecastsCompany Confidential/Proprietary

From Forecast

To Impact

Bridged the GapCompany Confidential/Proprietary22

A Regional Prototype System for a National Problem

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