A practical framework for planning pro-development climate policy

8/2/2019 A practical framework for planning pro-development climate policy

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Copyright United Nations Environment Programme, 2011.

This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any ormor educational or non-prot purposes without special permissionrom the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement o the source is

made. UNEP would appreciate receiving a copy o any publication thatuses this publication as a source.

No use o this publication may be made or resale or or any

other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission inwriting rom the United Nations Environment Programme.

Disclaimer

The designations employed and the presentation o the

material in this publication do not imply the expression o any opinionwhatsoever on the part o the United Nations Environment Programme

concerning the legal status o any country, territory, city or area or oits authorities, or concerning delimitation o its rontiers or boundaries.Moreover, the views expressed do not necessarily represent the

decision or the stated policy o the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, nor does citing o trade names or commercial processesconstitute endorsement.

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Forew

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UNEP

Climate is an inordinate challenge but also an inordinate

opportunity to transorm economies onto a low-carbon, resource-ecient Green Economy path.

Catalyzing clean energy will not only cut greenhouse-gas

emissions as part o eorts to limit a global temperature rise to under2 degrees C or more, it also represents a way o curbing health-hazardous air pollution while oering a rapid path to address energy

poverty, especially in rural areas o developing economies.Meanwhile enhancing ecosystems such as orests,

mangroves and seagrasses in order to conserve their carbon stocks

can also trigger multiple benets rom boosting water suppliesand improving agriculture to maintaining natural sea deences andnurseries or sh. The 17th Conerence o the Parties meeting in

Durban, South Arica, later this year presents the world with anotheropportunity to advance the climate agenda and co-operative action

under the UN Climate Convention.It is crucial that those actions are designed within a coherent

and robust policy-planning ramework to ensure that they are both

cost-eective and compatible with broader social, economic andenvironmental goals. For developing countries, sound climate-policy planning will also enhance access to climate nance rom the

developed ones.Climate-policy planning is a complex undertaking. Many

developing countries are only just starting to consider how to go

about it and some require improved access to the requisite knowledge,expertise and technical skills. Drawing upon best practices, triedand tested in other parts o the world, is clearly an advantage.

The MCA4climate, a new UNEP initiative, is designed to assistpolicymakers, particularly in the developing world, in that endeavour.It oers concrete guidance and recommendations on a number o

critical issues and proposes a ormal ramework or evaluating climatemitigation and adaptation policies, paving a practical way orward so

that countries evolve sustainably and grow their economies in a waythat keeps humanitys ootprint within planetary boundaries. It drawson the work o leading experts on climate policymaking rom around

the world and uses an innovative approach to assessing policiesthat ensures that climate policies and strategies take ull account odevelopmental concerns and objectives.

The MCA4climate initiative refects UNEPs mission toprovide leadership and encourage partnership in caring or theenvironment by inspiring, inorming and enabling nations and

peoples to improve their quality o lie without compromising that outure generationsissues at the centre o Rio+20 next year in Brazilas governments look to scale-up and accelerate the implementation

o the agreements, including those relating to climate change,established in Rio in 1992.

Achim Steiner,UN Under-Secretary General and Executive Director

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)


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UNEP is the convenor o the MCA4climate initiative, which was launched

at the end o 2009 with nancial support rom the Government o Spain.Our role is to bring together leading experts rom around the world, toco-ordinate their analysis, to manage the consultation process and to

ensure the legitimacy o their ormal submissions. The UNEP team, parto the Division o Technology, Industry and Economics based in Paris andworking on MCA4climate comprises:

erban Scrieciu: project management, climate economics andpolicy evaluation ramework.

Sophy Bristow: multi-criteria decision support tool, casestudies and outreach.

Daniel Puig:programme management.

UNEP also acknowledges the assistance o Trevor Morgan in

preparing this report.

Main partners

Several acclaimed international experts have contributedtowards the development o the MCA4climate initiative and on

dierent parts o the guidance package. Some have helped us deneour approach and develop guidance documents, while others haveapplied the generic methodology to a specic mitigation or adaptation

theme. Our main partners are listed below in alphabetical order:

Frank Ackerman (Stockholm Environment Institute US):

guidance on climate-change economics and critical issues orclimate-policy analysis.

Valerie Belton (University o Strathclyde): guidance on multi-

criteria decision analysis and methodology development. Kornelis Blok (Ecoys): mitigation theme guidance on

improving energy eciency and saving energy. Ariane de Bremond(University o Maryland): adaptation

theme guidance on increasing terrestrial ecosystems

resilience. Zaid Chalabi (London School o Hygiene and Tropical

Medicine): methodology development and adaptation theme

guidance on reducing human health impacts and risks. William Cheung (University o East Anglia): adaptation theme

guidance on increasing marine ecosystems resilience.

Heleen de Coninck(Energy Research Centre o theNetherlands): mitigation theme guidance on capturing andstoring emissions o CO

2.

William Easterling(Penn State University): mitigation themeguidance on improving land use management.

MCA4climate

ForewordbyUNFCCC

At the UN Climate Change Conerence in Cancun in

December 2010, the countries o the world laid the oundation or themost ar-reaching collective eort the world has ever seen to reducecarbon emissions, and to build a system which makes all countries

accountable to one another or those emission reductions.Under the Cancun Agreements, all industrialized nations

made ocial their reduction pledges, and committed themselves to

develop low-carbon development plans or strategies. Developingcountries made ocial their nationally appropriate mitigation actions(NAMAs) which seek a deviation rom business-as-usual emissions by

2020, and were encouraged to develop low-carbon growth strategies.In addition, the Cancun Agreements provide the strongest

signal countries have ever given to the private sector that we are

moving toward low-carbon economies, by committing to a maximumtemperature rise o 2 degrees Celsius, and a consideration o a

maximum o 1.5 degrees in the near uture.It is clear that the poorer developing countries will

need substantial nancial and technical support in preparing and

implementing mitigation and adaptation actions. The agreementsin Cancun on mobilizing nance or developing countries, includingthe establishment o a Green Climate Fund and a registry to match

action with unding and other types o support, constitute major stepsorward. So do the agreements on a new Technology Mechanism andAdaptation Committee.

All countries accept the need or collective action on climatechange. But national responses to it will need to vary accordingto each countrys circumstances and potential. It is the job o

governments to set laws and regulations to drive changes in businessand public behaviour that mitigate greenhouse gas emissions andenhance our capacity to adapt to climate change.

For the developing countries, climate plans will need tobe compatible with and supportive o their development goals. I

developing countries are convinced that there are major developmentbenets to be drawn rom climate action, such as aster long-termgrowth, better employment prospects and reduced poverty, they

will be much more likely to embark on policies to put them on alow-carbon development path.

That is why UNEPs MCA4climate initiative, which provides

valuable guidance to policy makers on drawing up and improvingtheir climate plans taking account o the ull range o socio-economicand environmental concerns, can prove highly eective in stimulating

cost-eective national actions.I wish this initiative every success.

Christiana Figueres,Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework Convention

on Climate Change (UNFCCC)


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Acknowledgements

Paul Ekins (University College London): guidance on

interactions between climate change and scal sustainability. Nathan Engle (Battelle Pacic Northwest National

Laboratory / Joint Global Change Research Institute):

adaptation theme guidance on increasing terrestrialecosystems resilience.

Gnther Fischer (International Institute or Applied

Systems Analysis): adaptation theme guidance on reducingagricultural output losses.

Stphane Hallegatte (Centre International de Recherche sur

lEnvironnement et le Dveloppement): adaptation themeguidance on increasing inrastructure resilience.

Sari Kovats (London School o Hygiene and Tropical

Medicine): adaptation theme guidance on reducing humanhealth impacts and risks.

Reinhard Mechler (International Institute or Applied SystemsAnalysis): adaptation theme guidance on reducing extremeweather event impacts.

Kathleen Miller (National Center or Atmospheric Research,Colorado): adaptation theme guidance on improving waterresources management.

William Moomaw (Tuts University): mitigation themeguidance on increasing the share o low-carbon energysources in the uel mix.

Trevor Morgan (Menecon Consulting): guidance onmeasurement, reporting and evaluation.

Robert Nicholls(University o Southampton): adaptation

theme guidance on improving coastal zone management. Stean Speck (European Environment Agency): guidance on

interactions between climate change and scal sustainability.

Elizabeth A. Stanton (Stockholm Environment Institute US):guidance on developing baselines.

Rashid Sumaila(University o British Columbia): adaptationtheme guidance on increasing marine ecosystems resilience.

Erika de Visser (Ecoys): mitigation theme guidance on

improving energy eciency and saving energy.

Other contributing experts

We would also like to acknowledge the contribution o otherexperts who have been involved in dierent stages o the MCA4climate

initiative. These include: Robert Wilby (Loughborough University)and Bekele Debele Negewo (World Bank) on the Sanaa Basin, Yemenadaptation case study; Glynn Morris (AGAMA Energy) on the South

Arican mitigation case study; Benjamin Jones (ormerly with the IMF) onproviding guidance on the linkages with scal policy; Jan Coree-Morlot

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(Organisation or Economic Co-operation and Development) and K.

Narayanan (Indian Institute o Technology Bombay) on the Mumbai, Indiaadaptation case study; and Thanakvaro Thyl De Lopez and Anne Olho(UNEP Ris Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development) on

helping dene the themes and objectives o the project.

Steering committee

We are grateul to the ollowing, who have acted as a SteeringCommittee, particularly in the earlier stages o the MCA4climate

initiative: Preety Bhandari (UNFCCC); Rmy Paris (OECD); AliciaMontalvo Santamaria and Ana Pint Fernndez (Spanish ClimateChange Oce, Ministry o Environment, and Rural and Marine

Aairs); Juan C. Mata Sandoval (Ministry o Environment and NaturalResources o Mexico); Colin KirkpatrickandClive George (University o

Manchester); and Mark Kenber (The Climate Group).

External reviewers

We would also like to thank our external reviewers o theseveral documents issued under the MCA4climate initiative: Ian Parry

(International Monetary Fund); Anthony Janetos and Elizabeth Malone(Joint Global Change Research Institute - Pacic Northwest NationalLaboratory / University o Maryland); Susanne Akereldt (Ministry o

Finance o Sweden); Terry Barker (University o Cambridge); StephenDeCanio (University o Caliornia, Santa Barbara); Ellina Levina(International Energy Agency); Brendan Beck (South Aricas National

Energy Research Institute / IEA);Raghu Murtugudde (University oMaryland); Chu Thai Hoanh (International Water Management Institute,Laos); Bob Scholes (Council or Scientic and Industrial Research in

South Arica); Jared Bosire (Kenyan Marine and Fisheries ResearchInstitute); Sumana Bhattacharya (Windrock International India, New

Delhi); Mala Rao (Indian Institute o Public Health, Hyderabad); CarlosCorvalan (The Pan American Health Organisation / WHO); Shri P.G.Dhar Chakrabarti (National Institute o Disaster Management, Ministry

o Home Aairs, Government o India); Hilary McMahon (UnitedNations Development Programme); Roger Street and Patrick Pringle(UK Climate Impacts Programme); Heather McGray and Margaret

Steadman (World Resources Institute); Jane Ellis (Organisation orEconomic Co-operation and Development); Ana Pint and SaraAagesen (Spanish Climate Change Oce); and Noriko Yamada (UNEP).

This report draws on inputs rom all main partners and experts

mentioned above. We ully and grateully acknowedge the Government

o Spain or nancially supporting the MCA4climate initiative andproviding helpul reviews through its Spanish Climate Change Oce.


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Foreword by UNEP

Foreword by UNFCCCAcknowledgements

1 IntroductionBackground and rationaleObjectives and scope o the MCA4climate initiative

Purpose and structure o this report

2 Policy options or mitigation and adaptation

Developing a climate-change policy planMitigation policy optionsAdaptation policy options

3 MCA4climate policy evaluation ramework

Multi-criteria analysis and its rationaleApplying the MCA4climate policy evaluation ramework

4 Case studiesMumbaiSana'a Basin, Yemen

South AricaLessons learned

5 Guiding principles or climate-policy planningEconomic analysis o climate-policy optionsDeveloping baseline projections

Dealing with risk and uncertaintyEvaluating scal implicationsMeasurement, reporting and verication

Annex A: Reerences

Annex B: International sources o data and projectionsAnnex C: About the UNEP Division o Technology, Industry

and Economics

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1 IntroductionMCA4climate is a major new UNEP initiative providingpractical assistance to governments in preparing their climate changemitigation and adaptation plans and strategies. It aims to helpgovernments, particularly in developing countries, identiy policies and

measures that are low cost, environmentally eective and consistentwith national development goals. It does this by providing a structuredapproach to assessing and prioritizing climate-policy options, while

taking into consideration associated social, economic, environmentaland institutional costs and benets. In doing so, it seeks to counter thewidely held perception that tackling climate change is costly, highlight

the potential developmental benets o addressing climate changeand encourage action to that end.


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Background and rationale

At the climate talks in Cancn in December 2010, thelong-term goal o limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius

in comparison with pre-industrial levels and Annex I and non-Annex Ipledges o greenhouse gas emission reduction targets were ormallyincorporated into the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The Cancn Agreements urther encourage non-Annex I parties mainly developing countries to develop low-carbon strategies andrequire them to take national appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs)

in the context o sustainable development aimed at achieving adeviation in emissions relative to business-as-usual emissions in 2020.They also take on board a commitment made by developed countries

at the Copenhagen meeting a year earlier to provide $30 billion inast-start nance in 2010-2012 or developing country NAMAs and

national adaptation plans and actions (NAPAs), and to mobilize $100billion a year o public and private nance by 2020.

In addition, the Agreements establish a Green Climate Fund

to manage a portion o this unding. Many developing countries arestill at an early stage o developing ormal climate change policy plans,identiying specic mitigation and adaptation policy options, and

deciding on which ones to adopt. There is widespread and increasingwillingness to take this process orward and to take advantage o theunding that is on oer. But, in many cases, the planning process is

complicated by the sheer complexity o the linkages and trade-osbetween climate-related policy goals and broader developmentalpolicy goals, as well as a lack o communication about the range o

policy options available and how to go about evaluating their eects.Developing countries can oten benet rom assistance in devisingsound, low-cost and pro-development climate action plans.

Objectives and scope o the MCA4climate initiative

The MCA4climate initiative is intended to help meet this need, byproviding practical help and guidance to governments, especially

in developing countries, in ormulating their climate-policy plans inthe context o broader economic and social policymaking. It hopesto support current and uture work on assessing how investment

in low-carbon and climate resilient technologies could lead to jobcreation, growth, improved health prospects and other developmentbenets. Specically, it enables governments to:

Identiy the developmental benets o climate mitigationand adaptation in order to strengthen the case or such

action and better integrate climate policy into national-leveldevelopment-policy planning.

Assess systematically the complex linkages and trade-os

between the multi-aceted dimensions o climate change andits policy responses.

Prioritize investments related to curbing greenhouse-gas

emissions or adapting to climate change when decidingon the allocation o limited nance across a large array opossible climate actions.

Deal with dierent or conficting interests and objectives .

The principal way in which MCA4climate seeks to provide

this assistance is through the application o the MCA4climate policyevaluation ramework a powerul analytical tool that has beendeveloped specically or the MCA4climate initiative by UNEP with

assistance rom a number o leading international experts. Thisramework, as the name indicates, is based on a multi-criteria analysis

(MCA) approach a well-established technique or aiding decision-making that has already been successully deployed in non-climateareas o policymaking. The MCA4climate policy evaluation ramework

is intended to be used as a practical step-by-step tool or identiyingand prioritizing mitigation and adaptation policies, consistent withdevelopmental goals. It ensures that all the dierent dimensions o

climate policies, including those that cannot be easily measured inmonetary terms, are taken into consideration. It also acilitates theengagement o stakeholders in the policy-planning process.

At the heart o this ramework is a hierarchical criteria treecontaining a set o generic criteria, against which climate-policy plannerscan evaluate proposed policy actions and their potential contribution to

a broad range o developmental objectives. Those policy actions havebeen categorized into 12 areas, or themes our covering mitigationand eight covering adaptation to provide a comprehensive guide to

the various policy options available. For each theme, detailed criteriaand indicators have been developed to enable the multi-dimensional

eects o each policy to be evaluated. Recommendations have alsobeen drawn up on appropriate orms o assessment and data sources.The potential interactions across the various themes have also been

identied. In order to test the MCA4climate policy evaluation rameworkand demonstrate that it works, we applied the ramework in threeseparate casestudies: two on adaptation (food risks and inrastructure

resilience in Mumbai, India and water management in the Sanaa Basinin Yemen) and one on mitigation (moving the electricity sector inSouth Arica towards low-carbon sources). Applying the MCA4climate

policy evaluation ramework or, indeed, any approach to ormulatingclimate policy is conronted by a number o practical issues . We haveanalyzed in depth some o the most critical issues and prepared some

guiding principles and practical recommendations on how to addressthem. These issues include assessing the economic implications o the


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various policy options, dealing with risk and uncertainty, developingand using baselines, understanding the scal implications o climate

policies and undertaking the measurement, reporting and vericationo policy actions and their eects. This guidance is intended to be opractical value to government ocials directly involved in applying this

ramework or in analyzing climate policies more generally, as well as toother stakeholders involved in the climate policymaking process.

Purpose and structure o this report

This report is intended to provide a ormal record o theresults o the MCA4climate initiative to date. It contains our

substantive sections, the ndings o which can be used independentlyto address specic issues or as a whole to conduct a comprehensiveevaluation o climate policy plans (Figure 1). The sections are as ollows:

Climate policy options: an overview o the nature o thepolicy challenge posed by climate change and o the policy-

planning process, and a ull description o the range oclimate mitigation and adaptation policy options availablecategorized according to the 12 themes.

The MCA4climate policy evaluation ramework: a descriptiono the climate policy evaluation ramework, how it works and

how it can be applied in practice across the themes. Thisincludes the MCA4climate criteria tree which is a practicaltool or evaluating the multiple dimensions o climate policies.

Case studies: an exploration o the practicalities o applyingthe MCA4climate ramework to real policy problems in threedierent locations. Each case study was designed to test dierent

elements o the ramework, and the lessons learnt contributedto the development o the overall MCA4climate initiative.

Guiding principles or climate-pol icy planning: a summary on

cross-cutting aspects o climate-policy planning and analysis,including practical recommendations.

Further inormation on the MCA4climate policy evaluationramework and approach, all o the detailed reports on each o thethemes (theme reports), the guidance on critical aspects o climate-

policy planning (also labelled as guiding principles) and the casestudies, together with more inormation about the background to the

MCA4climate initiative, can be downloaded rom the MCA4climatewebsite: www.mca4climate.ino.

Next steps

It is hoped that this report will encourage policymakers in

developing countries and other stakeholders to consult and make useo the theme reports and guidance documents and to consider thepossibility o applying the MCA4climate policy evaluation ramework

at the national level. It is envisaged that applying the ramework ullywill require the direct involvement o external experts who have beenengaged in the initiative or are amiliar with using this ramework.

The next steps that UNEP envisages in taking the MCA4climateinitiative orward are:

Climate Policy Analysis

Identication and prioritizationo climate policy options

Mitigation

Adaptation

LAND USEMANAGEMENT

LOW-CARBONFUEL MIX

CARBON CAPTUREAND STORAGE

ENERGYEFICIENCY

AGRICULTURE

INFRASTRUCTURETERRESTRIALECOSYSTEMS

COASTALZONES

MARINEECOSYSTEMS

WATER

EXTREMECLIMATE

HEALTH

FISCALLINKAGES

CLIMATEECONOMICS

MEASUREMENT,REPORTING,

VERIFICATIONBASELINES

PRO-DEVELOPMENT CIMATE ACTION PLANS & STRATEGIES

CLIMATE POLICY OPTIONS

MCA4CLIMATE POLICYEVALUATION FRAMEWORK

RISK & UNCERTAINTY

Figure 1: The structure o the MCA4climate initiative


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Building partnerships: UNEP is currently working with the

French development agency (AFD) and other bilateralagencies to promote the goals o the MCA4climate initiativeat the national level.

Piloting in countries: work is underway in Mexico andpreparations are well advanced in other emerging economies.

Government ocials and other stakeholders looking to learnmore about the MCA4climate initiative and how it could helpclimate-policy planning in your country should contact Mark Radka at

[email protected].


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2 Policy options for

mitigation and adaptation

All Parties to the Conerence are required to develop climate

policies in order to contribute to the overall objective o the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change to stabilizegreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that

will prevent dangerous human intererence with the climate system.The Convention recognizes the importance o scientically sound,long-term national plans and strategies to mitigate climate change by

reducing the sources or enhancing the sinks o greenhouse gases or toadapt to it, though there is no legal requirement on Parties to preparea plan as such. There is also a growing recognition o the need to

prepare or and adapt to climate change as a certain degree o changeappears to be inevitable.

A climate plan sets out how a package o policy instruments

and specic measures are to be implemented and how they areexpected to contribute to meeting stated policy goals. In ormulating

that plan, policymakers must identiy and evaluate mitigation andadaptation policies drawn rom the ull range o options available,taking account o national circumstances.


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Developing a climate-change policy plan

A national climate policy comprises our elements:

A statement o objectives , or policy goals.

A strategy, or a plan, or achieving them. A set o policy instruments and specic measures. An institutional ramework, or both ormulating and

implementing the policy.

A climate-policy plan, thereore, is the means by which a

government goes about trying to achieve its overall policy goal. Thatgoal is usually ocused on contributing to international eorts tomitigate the impact o climate change, by reducing anthropogenic

emissions o greenhouse gases. Increasingly, the goal involves adaptingto climate change that will result rom past and uture emissions.

The plan may involve quantitative targets or emissions, orreductions relative to a baseline: all Annex I and some non-Annex Icountries have adopted such targets. Those non-Annex I countries that

have not committed themselves to quantitative emissions reductionsare required under the Framework Convention to take NAMAs.Although there is no strict denition o what a NAMA is, it is typically

taken to reer to the implementation o a set o policy instrumentsor specic projects that result in a reduction in emissions below abaseline or business-as-usual. Although there is no requirement on any

country under the Convention to adopt NAPAs, the Cancn Agreementsdo include measures, notably the Cancn Adaptation Framework, toenhance adaptation eorts by all countries and help the least developed

and most vulnerable countries develop and implement NAPAs.The climate-policy plan comprises a specic set o

instruments or measures (oten called simply policies) that are to

be implemented over a given timerame. The policies that actuallymake up the plan are drawn rom a range o options or mitigating

the impact o climate change or adapting to it. The MCA4climateinitiative categorizes these options into 12 areas, or themes our owhich concern mitigation and eight adaptation (Table 1). The themes

chosen or the mitigation actions correspond to the main ways inwhich greenhouse-gas emissions can be abated, while the adaptationthemes mirror the issues covered by the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change in its most recent assessment report (IPCC, 2007),with the addition o the theme on extreme-weather events. Themitigation themes were not based on those o the IPCC, which is made

up o sectors such as industry or transport, as it was elt that thiswould result in excessive overlap in view o the type o analysis beingundertaken or the MCA4climate initiative.

In practice, governments need to balance action to mitigategreenhouse-gas emissions and action to adapt to actual and imminent

THEME NOTES

MITIGATION

Improving energyeciency and conserv-ing energy

Adopting technologies or practices to provide the same energyservice with ewer energy inputs (increased energy eciency)and/or changes in behaviour that result in reduced demand orenergy services (energy conservation).

Improving land-usemanagement practices

Increasing carbon absorption or reducing carbon- dioxideemissions via changes in orestry or agricultural practices (mainlythrough livestock and ertilizer input management), by reducingand avoiding deorestation, orest management, orest restora-tion, aorestation and reorestation.

Increasing the shareo low-carbon energysources in the uel mix

Reducing the carbon content o the uel mix, including switchingbetween ossil uels (or example, rom coal to gas) and rom os-sil uels to nuclear energy or renewable sources o energy (solarenergy, wind energy, geothermal energy, biomass energy,hydropower, tidal and marine energy).

Encouraging carbon-dioxide capture andstorage

A process involving the separation and capture o carbon dioxiderom industrial and energy-related sources, and its transporta-tion and long-term storage underground.

ADAPTATION

Improving coastal zonemanagement

Integrating likely ecological and human impacts o climatechange into management plans and p ractices or low-lying areasand shallow coastal waters.

Reducing human healthimpacts and risks

Adopting emergency preparedness and response mechanismsto respond to climate-related causes o ill-health, notablyunder-nutrition, diarrhoeal diseases and malaria.

Reducing agriculturaloutput losses

Maintaining or enhancing agricultural productivity (notably,by improving water use, agricultural input, soil management,land-use management, and crop-diversication practices), andincreasing the resilience o crops and livestock to adverse cli-matic conditions.

Increasing inrastruc-ture resilience

Adopting emergency preparedness and response mechanismsto respond to climate-related impacts on equipment, utilities,enterprises, installations and services.

Improving waterresource management

Integrating possible impacts o climate change on reshwatersystems and their management, including seasonal shits instreams fow, salinization, and fooding and drought risks.

Increasing terrestrialecosystems resilience

Adopting natural resource management techniques such asexpansion o reserve systems and actions to reduce climatechange-induced stresses on terrestrial ecosystems.

Increasing marineecosystems resilience

Adopting natural resource management techniques toreduce climate change-induced stresses on marine ecosystemsand their resilience.

Reducing extremeweather event impacts

Adopting emergency preparedness and response mechanismsto respond to severe but inrequent climate-related events.

Table 1: Mitigation and adaptation themes


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climate change. This balance needs to take account o the type ocommitment made to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, the scale and

nature o the risks rom climate change, and the cost o adaptation. Allthese actors depend on national circumstances.

Each o the themes is described below, including the principal

policy options, which are generally categorized according to the typeo instrument: market-based, regulatory, public investment, inormation-based, and voluntary agreements or international co-operation.

The classication is only indicative and provides a consistent taxonomyacross all themes. The analysis developed by the theme experts isintended to provide an in-depth reerence resource to inorm

the development o potential policy and action plans or evaluation.

Mitigation policy options

Improving energy eciency and conserving energy

Improving energy eciency reers to a reduction in the

amount o energy consumed in providing an energy service, such as

heating, cooling or mobility. Energy conservation is the savings inenergy use rom orgoing an energy service, such as walking insteado using a car. Energy intensity measures the amount o energy

used in aggregate or economic activity; at the highest level, energyintensity is measured as the total primary energy consumption

1per

unit o economic output or gross domestic product (GDP), while at the

lowest level, it can be measured or individual processes or individualappliances. Energy intensity is aected by energy eciency, but also

by economic structure. A country with a large industrial sector may

use energy relatively eciently but have a high intensity.In many countries, energy is used ineciently or wasteully

in a wide range o applications. Oten, this is because the capital

stock is obsolete and could be replaced by modern equipment andappliances which use energy much more eciently. In some cases,prices are held below market levels, oten or social reasons, reducing

the incentive or energy users to conserve energy or use it moreeciently. Government policies can drive more ecient energyuse by persuading, encouraging or obliging households, motorists,

businesses and public bodies to change their energy-consumptionbehaviour and their purchases o energy-using equipment, appliancesand vehicles, through a variety o market-based, regulatory and

inormation-based instruments. Governments can also directly aectenergy use by investing directly in inrastructure or by negotiating

voluntary agreements with businesses to reduce energy use (Table 2).Major barriers against energy-eciency improvements in developingcountries include lack o awareness on the importance and the

potential o energy-eciency improvements, lack o nancing, lack oqualied personnel and insucient energy service levels. Inormationprogrammes are especially important in developing countries, where

lack o inormation has been identied as a major barrier or energyeciency and renewable-energy investments. Subsidy reorm,involving raising energy prices to ull market levels, is generally among

the least-cost policy options and may be no-regrets, i.e. the net cost tothe economy is at or below zero, not even allowing or the environmentalbenets rom lower emissions o greenhouse gas and pollutants. This

is because reducing energy use may bring about important economicbenets, including cost savings, lower imports or increased availabilityo energy or export and a reduced burden on the central government

budget or state-owned enterprises.

Improving land-use management practices

Climate change can be mitigated through improving

land-use management practices that increase carbon absorptionor reduce emissions o carbon dioxide (CO

2). This can be achieved

through changes in orestry by reducing or avoiding deorestation,

better orest management, orest restoration, aorestation orreorestation or in agriculture by better soil carbon managementand the use o bio-char to sequester carbon and by reducing

emissions with better livestock and ertilizer management. Theseactivities are collectively known as Land Use, Land-Use Change, andForestry (LULUCF). Increasing carbon in the terrestrial biosphere is a

relatively low-cost way to help mitigate the increasing concentrationo CO2

in the atmosphere, while providing co-benets, such as

1 Energy extracted or captured directly rom natural resources such as crude oil, hardcoal, natural gas, or produced rom primary commodities or sources, such as uranium,hydropower or solar energy.

INSTRUMENT POLICY O PTIONS

Market-based Energy/carbon pricing. Tradable certicates. Subsidies and taxbreaks (exemptions, credits and rebates). Loan acilities.

Regulatory Energy eciency perormance standards or equipment andappliances. Mandatory improvements in eciency or intensity(such as or feet vehicle purchases).

Public investment Research and development. Inrastructure provision.

Inormation-based Labelling. Energy-perormance certicates.Training and capacity-building.

Voluntary agreements Agreements on energy eciency and/or intensity improvements withindustry.

Table 2: Policy options to improve energy eciencyand conservation


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protecting orests, biodiversity, water quality and soil ertility.

Land-use management practices in agriculture can mitigate climatechange through carbon sequestration and emissions reduction.Carbon sequestration can be boosted mainly through agronomy

(on-arm practices that increase crop and pasture productivity,thereby generating more biomass and increasing carbon uptake);management o residues and water to reduce methane emission

and increase soil carbon, notably in rice growing; optimized grazingpractices; and restoration o degraded land. Several agriculturalpractices have shown promise or reducing agricultural carbon

emissions, including nutrient management; conversion to covercrops; re management; and management o organic soils andmanure. In orestry, the principal climate change mitigation practices

include reducing or avoiding deorestation, orest management andrestoration; and aorestation and reorestation. The most eective

short-term strategy or mitigating climate change through orestry isundoubtedly to reduce rates o deorestation. There is a rich portolioo policy instruments available to governments to promote climate

change mitigation through improved land-use management (Table3). In practice, LULUCF mitigation policies will need to be ormulatedand implemented within the context o broader agricultural and

orestry policies. In many cases, the objectives o the latter policies

may confict with the goal o mitigating climate change, especially

where they are aimed at maintaining armer livelihoods through ruraldevelopment and underpinning ood security.

Increasing the share o low-carbon energy sources in the uel mix

Globally, nearly 60% o heat o global warming is caused

by the CO2

that is emitted rom the combustion o ossil uels (IPCC,2011). Methane leaks rom natural gas and oil production and use andother greenhouse gases emitted rom burning ossil uels, as well as

black carbon rom burning biomass, are additional sources. Fossiluels currently account or over 80% o primary energy use worldwide(IEA, 2010a). And ossil-uel consumption is set to continue to grow:

without a change in government police, global ossil energy use wouldexpand by 44% between 2008 and 2035 a development that would

be compatible with an increase in global temperature o more than 6Celsius (IEA, 2010b).

Individuals and businesses consume energy or the

services they provide, including cooking, lighting, rerigeration,communications and entertainment, mechanical work, mobility,heating or comort and hot water. End-use energy to supply these

services is provided by dierent energy carriers such as the heatgenerated by burning uels or electricity. The end-use carriers oenergy come through a technological conversion process that

utilizes a source o primary energy such as biomass or ossil uels,nuclear energy, solar, wind, hydro, geothermal or ocean energy.With economic development and population growth, the worlds

demand or end-use energy will certainly grow. Consequently, tomitigate climate change, it will be necessary to set in motion a rapidtransormation o the worlds energy system away rom ossil uels

as primary energy sources and towards low-carbon alternatives essentially nuclear power and renewable energy sources.

There are number o policy instruments that governmentscan use to encourage or orce such a transormation (Table 4: Seenext page). In principle, market-based instruments are the most

economically ecient approach, but other instruments may provemore eective as a result o market barriers. Because needs or energy services are so dierent or societies

at dierent stages o development, the appropriate policies neededto boost the role o low-carbon uels to supply those services also dier:

Least developed countries are in need o the most basic energy

services. Consequently, the main policy objectives are likely toinclude improving cooking services through the introductiono improved stoves; the deployment o distributed renewables-

based technologies such as solar-powered lanterns, radios andmobile phone chargers; and creating electricity services or

INSTRUMENT POLICY OPTIONS

Market-based Tradable permits or allocating emissions/carbon absorptions.Taxes and charges, e.g. to discourage orest clearing.

Regulatory Mandatory actions concerning on-arm practices andtechnologies, such as GPS-assisted precision ossil uel-basedertilizer applications (in agriculture) or a per ormance standardor lowering the rate o orest-to-agricultural land conversion(in orestry).

Public investment Research and the development o new knowledge and innova-tive land-use practices and technologies, e.g. to improve cropproductivity.

Inormation-based Public relations and education campaigns and mandatory emis-sions disclosures to encourage climate change mitigation behav-iour (e.g. to educate armers that conservation tillagenot only increases carbon absorption in the soil, but alsoimproves soil water-holding characteristics).

Internationalco-operation

Multi-lateral treaties to voluntarily reduce emissions orsequester carbon.

Table 3: Policy options to improve land-use management practices


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urban areas such as distributed generation. The most importantpolicy actions that governments o these countries canestablish are those that build capacity.

Developing country policies concern primarily more extensivelow-carbon electrication o services in rapidly growingurban regions while still meeting the needs o rural users.

Economy-wide policy instruments need to be implementedalongside the development o specic large-scale low-carbon

projects. Removing subsidies or ossil uels is an importantpolicy action needed in many developing countries.

Emerging economies policy needs are similar to those or

developed countries. Financial as well as regulatory policieshave proven eective in moving to low-carbon technologiesor delivering energy services. These countries oten have

the capacity to manuacture and install major low-carbontechnologies, and have policies in place to encourage thoseindustries. For example, China and India have become major

producers o wind turbines and solar PV panels. Developed countries have well-developed energy systems

that vary enormously in terms o carbon intensity.

This presents a challenge since there is so much o theenergy system that is 'locked-in' to existing high-carbon

inrastructure. These countries need to use a combination o

policy instruments to shit investment towards low-carbontechnologies and accelerate the retirement o existing ossil-energy-based capital stock.

Encouraging carbon-dioxide capture and storage

Carbon-dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is a technologythat reduces greenhouse-gas emissions by separating CO

2rom the

fue gases o a large, stationary point source, transporting it, and

isolating it rom the atmosphere by injecting it into a geologicalreservoir that is suitable or permanent storage, such as a depleted oilor gas eld (IPCC, 2005). In principle, CCS can reduce CO

2emissions

rom power plants or large industrial acilities that burn ossil uels byup to 85% compared with conventional technology.

However, CCS has yet to be deployed commercially in thepower and industrial sectors, and the eectiveness o the technologyand its cost remain uncertain. There are also uncertainties about

the saety and integrity o long-term geological storage o CO2

andwhether sucient suitable storage capacity exists to make this awidespread option. CCS has so ar been used solely in the oil and gas

industry, in instances where there is a need to separate out CO2 romnatural gas; the CO

2is then used either or enhanced oil recovery, or is

stored permanently underground. A number o demonstration plants

involving the use o the technology in power generation are underdevelopment or planned in several countries, the biggest being the1GW FutureGen project in the United States. The demonstration

Table 4: Policy options to increase the share o low-carbonenergy sources


Market-based Carbon price or tax. Tax credits. Carbon emission standard.

Regulatory Mandatory deployment o CCS or coal- or oss il -uelledinstallations.

Public investment R&D support. Demonstration subsidy. Funding pipeline network.Funding o storage assessments.

Inormation-based Academic education programmes. Regulatory capacity building.Public engagement programmes around projects. Inormationportal and documentation.


Regional technology knowledge networks.Internationaldemonstration und or CCS.

Table 5: Policy options to promote CCS


Market-based Carbon cap and trading schemes. Carbon and energy taxes (thatpenalize ossil uels). Subsidies to renewables and nuclear energy,e.g. eed-in taris and low interest rates. Remove subsidies toossil uels.

Regulatory Mandates on the share o low-carbon uels/technologies . Removebarriers to innovation, such as restrictions on distributed generationor maximum amounts o renewable energy on the grid. Establishclear interconnection rules or power grids and ensure that theyencourage the use o ecient low-carbon technologies.

Public investment Direct investment in low-carbon energy inrastructureor technologies. Spending on research and development olow-carbon sources.

Inormation-based Awareness-raising and educational programmes. Educationand training in engineering and policy. Provide assessments olow-carbon resources.


Co-operative programmes on technology research and develop-ment, e.g. through partnerships and IEA implementing agreements.


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Table 6: Natural system eects o sea-level rise

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phase is likely to last or over a decade. In the longer term, CCS could

emerge as a potential mitigation option in certain locations. There area number o ways in which a government can seek to encourage thedevelopment, demonstration and deployment o CCS technology i it

decides that CCS should rom part o its portolio o mitigation actions(Table 5: See previous page). Most o these policy options, especiallyrelated to awareness-raising and public investment, would probably

be a pre-requisite or CCS to take o. Some economic instruments arecomplementary, especially those addressing dierent technologicalmaturity phases, even to the extent that the one is not eective

without the other; other instruments would address the same problem.

Adaptation policy options

Prioritizing adaptation actions at the global level is hard

because o the huge array o potential climate impacts, the dierenttypes o societies they will hit and the wide range o potential adaptationstrategies and measures. For any given country, the choice o appropriate

policy options, as well as decisions on timing, sequencing and levels oinvestment, depend very much on the specic national context and therange o projected climate changes and their consequences.

Improving coastal zone management

Climate change and its causes are expected to lead to majorchanges in coastal areas including decreasing seawater pH, rising sealevels and sea surace temperatures, and changing storm, wave and

run-o characteristics. Rising global-mean sea levels due to thermalexpansion and the melting o land-based ice are already being observed,and this rise is likely to accelerate through the 21st century: the IPCCs

Fourth Assessment Report projects a rise o 20 to 60 centimetres by the2090s (IPCC, 2007). Some recent analyses have suggested that, while

highly unlikely, a rise o 2 metres by 2100 cannot be discounted. Thereis also increasing concern about higher extreme sea levels due to moreintense storms superimposed on these mean rises, especially or areas

aected by tropical storms. While higher sea levels only impact coastalareas, these are the most densely populated and economically activeland areas on Earth and they also support important and productive

ecosystems that are sensitive to sea-level change. It is airly certain thatsea level will continue to rise due to human-induced global warming arbeyond the 21st century due to the large thermal inertia o the oceans.

Three distinct generic types o adaptation actions to risingsea levels can be identied:

Protect, i.e. reduce the probability o rising sea levels occurring.

Accommodate, i.e. reduce its impacts. Retreat, i.e. reduce exposure to it.

NATURAL SYSTEM EFFECT INTERACTINGFACTORS:CLIMATE

INTERACTINGFACTORS:NON-CLIMATE

SOCIO-ECONOMICSYSTEMADAPTATION

Inundation,food and stormdamage

Surge (sea) Wave/stormclimate; erosion;sediment supply

Sedimentsupply; foodmanagement;erosion; landclaim

Dykes/surgebarriers [P].Building codes/food-wisebuildings [A]Land-useplanning/haz-ard delineation[A/R]

Backwatereect (river)

Run-o Surge (sea)

Wetland loss/change

CO2

ertilization;sediment supply

Sediment supply;migration space;direct destruction

Land-useplanning [A/R]Managedrealignment/orbid harddeences [R]Nourishment/sedimentmanagement

[P]

Erosion Sediment sup-ply; wave/stormclimate

Sediment supply Coastaldeences [P]Nourishment[P]Buildingsetbacks [R].

Saltwater intru-sion

Suracewaters

Run-o Catchment man-agement and landuse

Saltwaterintrusionbarriers [P].Change waterabstraction[A/R]

Groundwater Rainall

Rising watertables/impededdrainage

RainallRun-o

Land and aquieruse; catchmentmanagement

Upgradedrainagesystems [P]Polders [P]Change landuse [A]Land-useplanning/hazarddelineation[A/R]

Some interactingactors, such assediment supply,appear twice as theycan be infuencedby both climate andnon-climate actors.[P] Protection, [A]Accommodation,[R] Retreat. Sources:Nicholls and Tol(2006).

The application o these measures needs to take place within

the context o coastal management, which is concerned with managingall the drivers threatening the coastal zone, not just climate change.Given that our scientic understanding is ar rom complete in coastal

areas, there is much to be learnt rom monitoring our interventions. Thisis consistent with adaptive management approaches (Figure 2).


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There is a very large number o individual measures

available to implement these actions. The main measures concernthe construction o physical barriers and changes to land use andare presented in Table 6 (See previous page). In addition, enhancing

the capacity or coastal management is also an important step inenhancing the capacity to adapt to climate change in coastal areas.

Reducing human health impacts and risks

The potential impacts o climate change on population health

include a wide range o diseases and health outcomes, rom inectiousdiseases and chronic diseases to malnutrition and injuries. Adaptation,broadly dened, would include all activities or interventions that

reduce or prevent these additional cases o disease or deaths. Anobvious example is the health impacts o extreme weather events,

such as heat waves, foods and droughts. There is a wide range opolicy options in the area o traditional public health activities thatocus on disease prevention and control policies in low and middle

income countries (Table 7). Some o these options can be appliedequally to developed countries. There are many other actions outsidethe health sector that are also needed to improve health, which


Market-based Subsidize or oer tax exemptions to pharmaceutical companiesto provide medications (e.g. cholera immunization).

Regulatory Introduce regulations (e .g. water and air qual ity standards).

Public investment Improve inrastructure, capacity and access to primary andsecondary healthcare services. Carry out research to evaluateex ante the eectiveness and cost-eectiveness o policies toreduce attributable health impacts. Increase healthcare work-orce and invest in their training. Provide up-ront public invest-ment to purchase drugs(e.g. insecticide-treated bed nets or malaria) or develop newdrugs (e.g. anti-malarials).

Inormation-based Develop and implement health orecasting and early warningsystem. Increase investment in health-promotion p rogrammes.


Provide global health orecasting systems

Table 7: Policy options to reduce human health impacts and risks

Adaptation

Mitigation

CLIMATEVARIABILITY

CLIMATECHANGE

IMPACTS

EXISTING MANAGE-MENT PRATICES

MONITORINGEVALUATION

IMPLEMENTATIONPLANNING

DESIGN

POLICY CRITERIACOASTAL DEVELOPMENT

OBJECTIVES

INFORMATIONAWARENESS

OTHERSTRESSES

Figure 2: Conceptual ramework or coastal adaptation

are addressed by the other climate-policy themes. These actionsinclude, or example, the strengthening o coastal and river deences

against foods and improving water supply and sanitation. Healtheects should always be considered in decision-making concerningenvironmental policies, particularly those policies that may cause

harm. Climate-change impacts and health priorities will vary greatlyboth between and within countries.

Reducing agricultural output losses

Widespread hunger and rising global ood demandsnecessitate better use o the worlds water, land and ecosystems.With world population expected to grow to about 9 billion by

2050, agricultural production will need to increase by about 70%globally and by 100% in developing countries. An enormous eortis required to achieve such growth. Some 1.6 billion hectares o land

are currently used or crop production, with about 1 billion undercultivation in developing countries. As people strive to get themost out o land already in production or exploit virgin territory to

develop more agricultural land to grow ood, the damage infictedon the environment will grow. About 40% o the worlds arable landis already degraded to some degree and will be urther impacted by

climate change, including by expected extreme weather events andclimate variability.


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Table 8: Policy options to reduce agricultural output losses

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Food insecurity is compounded by water scarcity. Some 30

countries already ace water shortages, and by 2050 this numbercould increase to over 50 countries, most o them in the developingworld. About one-quarter o the worlds population live in areas

categorized as physically water scarce and one-sixth in areas oeconomic water scarcity (UNESCO [United Nations Educational,Scientic and Cultural Organization] [2006], Water A Shared

Responsibility: The United Nations Water Development Report 2,UNESCO/Berghahn Books, Paris/New York). While current researchconrms that crops would respond positively to elevated CO

2in

the absence o climate change, human activities primarily ossiluel burning and deorestation are causing massive atmospheric


Market-based Review and adjust agricultural subsidies and taxes, e.g. to supportnew technology, crop varieties/seed material, the introduction oimproved climate-change resistant livestock breeds and improvedand ecient irrigation technologies. Water pricing. Paymentor ecosystem services, such as watershed protection, carbonsequestration andbiodiversity protection. Create local ood and eed banks orpeople and livestock. Risk bearing and sharing schemes, nationaldisaster unds and crop insurance.

Regulatory Review agricultural pol ic ies or consistency with c limate changeadaptation and mitigation policies. Impose caps on irrigationwater use; regulate irrigation water distribution. Establish inte-grated land use planning and zoning. Promote stakeholder-leddevelopment planning and adaptation strategies.

Public investment Develop new crop varieties or improved resistance to drought,heat and salt tolerance and climate-change resistant livestockbreeds. Establish programmes or soil-ertility maintenance.Improve management and maintenance o existing water supply.Dam construction or irrigation. Build desalination plants. Main-tain emergency ood stocks.

Inormation-based Raise public awareness on climate change and adaptation.Improve orecasting or arming, extreme events and disastermanagement and develop monitoring and early warning systems(weather, crop yield; pest & disease). Establish/enhance educa-tion and outreach programmes on conservation and managemento soil and water. Provide education and capacity building orimproving arm level production decisions and or local communi-ties to assist in disaster relie actions.


Negotiate agreements on sharing transboundary water resources,technology transer, gene banks/germplasm, pest and diseasemonitoring and warning, agricultural knowledge sharing. Supportinternational data collection and analytical capacity building,relie and reconstruction programmes and new risk hedginginstruments and international insurance pools.

concentrations o greenhouse-gas emissions, leading to higher

temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased requencyo extreme events, such as drought and foods. This combinationo actors will likely depress agricultural yields and increase ood

production risks in many world regions in the uture, particularly inmany o the current ood-insecure countries.

As noted in IPCC (2007), the array o potential adaptive

responses available to human societies is very large, ranging rompurely technological (e.g. sea deences), through behavioural (orexample, altered ood choices) to managerial (e.g. altered arm

practices) and to policy (such as planning and regulations). Thereare also many barriers, limits and costs or adaptation, ranging romenvironmental, economic and inormational to socio-cultural and

behavioural. There are similarly a range o policy options available togovernments to drive these responses (Table 8).

Increasing inrastructure resilience

Physical inrastructure, such as water supply, sanitation,energy, transportation and communication services, and institutionalsystems like delivering healthcare, security, and re control and other

services, are vulnerable to long-term climate change in two ways:it infuences average weather conditions and can, thereby, reduceinrastructure service quality, quantity or reliance; and it can give rise

to more requent extreme weather events. Changes in inrastructuredesign, operation or management, including response mechanisms,are required to increase the resilience o inrastructure so as to

minimize the negative impacts o these threats when they materialize.Formulating policies to achieve this is complicated by the act

that uture climate change is still extremely uncertain. Nonetheless,

the resilience o inrastructure and risk-management systems in mostcountries is already sub-optimal regardless o any potential change

in climate, so polices to increase resilience are oten 'no-regrets'.This would be the case in many developing countries or electricitynetworks or drinking water networks. Such policies cannot, thereore,

be assessed purely rom a climate-change perspective.There is a broad range o options, categorized by type

o instrument, that can be implemented to increase short-term

resilience (the ability to cope with extreme weather events) orlong-term resilience (the ability to cope with longer-term changesin environmental conditions, like gradual soil deterioration) or both

(Table 9). These options are sometimes synergetic, i.e. they increaseboth short-term and long-term resilience, but they sometimesconfict, i.e. there is a trade-o between the two. In practice, there

can be trade-os between inrastructure resilience and eciencyin normal times; or instance, redundancy o assets may increase


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resilience (or example, an ensemble o two bridges is more resilient

than a single bridge), but also increases costs. So there may belittle incentive or inrastructure investors and managers to increaseresilience without government policies to either oblige or encourage

them to do so.

Improving water resource management

Climate change could have substantial impacts on wateravailability, water quality, the requency and magnitude o food

and drought events, and on aquatic ecology. There is considerableevidence that global warming will result in a general acceleration othe global hydrologic cycle the continuous movement o water on,

above and below the surace o the Earth. Surace water will evaporatemore readily and the moisture-holding capacity o the atmosphere will

increase, leading to an overall increase in atmospheric water vapourand a greater likelihood o both extremely heavy precipitation eventsand longer, hotter dry spells. Evidence rom climate models points to

increased precipitation in ar northern and southern latitudes, drierconditions in many subtropical locations and wetter again in someareas along the equator, though the extent o these changes is highly

Table 9: Policy options to increase inrastructure resilience


Market-based Policies to create incentives to promote resilience, such aspenalties or unreliable inrastructure perormance or subsidizingenhanced reliability.

Regulatory Technical building codes and construction standards andregulations, and procedural standards (such as requirementsto carry out vulnerability studies, adapted to take into accountclimate change and the resulting change in natural risks).

Public investment Additional investments by government and/or local authorities(including through public-private partnerships) to increaseinrastructure reliance and resilience, either through retrottingexisting inrastructure, building new inrastructure or d uplicatingexisting inrastructure to augment redundancy and resilience.

Inormation-based Gathering and dissemination o inormation by public bodies, orexample, through the unding o research and development. Forexample, in the United Kingdom, t he UKCIP programme handlesboth research and accessibility o inormation to businesses,regional government agencies and households.

Institution-based Pooling o emergency response capability. Adapting crisis-man-agement systems can be a no regret measure as it can oten bejustied by existing natural risks.

uncertain. In addition, warmer air temperatures will have signicant

impacts on the timing o snow-melt run-o, evaporative losses romsoil and surace water, and plant-water use. Rising sea levels willcause saline intrusion into coastal aquiers as well as fooding o some

coastal areas.Many countries are already struggling to manage water

eectively and climate change will complicate that challenge. Water

and inrastructure management will need to adapt to deal with thethreats to humans, aquatic environments and to ecosystems generallyposed by the changes in hydrologic systems that are expected to be

caused by climate change. The threats to humans include increasedvulnerability to foods and droughts, and longer-term changes inwater availability and quality, as well as greater health risks caused

by contaminated drinking water, insucient water or drinking andsanitation and exposure to diseases spread by mosquitoes and

other water-dependent vectors. Ensuring sucient water supply orirrigation, which now accounts or approximately 70% o all waterwithdrawn rom streams, lakes and aquiers or human use, will be a

major ocus o attention. Sound water-policy planning has to strike abalance between protecting human uses o water as a resource andprotecting waters role in maintaining healthy ecological systems. So,

policymakers need to explicitly consider how any specic policy ormeasure could aect the many inter-linked acets o water use andits ecosystem services. In doing so, they need to take account o the

unpredictability o hydrologic systems and the uncertainty about howclimate change will aect them. This requires developing a strategythat is robust to the plausible range o uture hydrologic change, while

preserving both resilience to surprises and options to modiy plansas the need arises. There are many policy options to improve waterresource management in ways that would help to maintain water

quality and the reliable provision o water or human and ecologicaluses despite the impacts o climate change (Table 10: See next page).

In many cases, appropriate policy design will require basic inormationon the state o the water resource system, existing water-use practices,hydrologic variability over time, and the status and sensitivity o

water-dependent ecological resources. Policies ocused on buildingthat inormation base are oten good candidates or early investmentand continued support.

Increasing terrestrial ecosystems resilience

Terrestrial ecosystems are vital to the maintenance ohuman well-being and play a vital role in the global carbon cycle,removing three gigatonnes o carbon rom the atmosphere every

year. Accelerating changes in the global climate are expected tohave widespread negative eects on terrestrial ecosystems, through


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altered patterns o temperature and precipitation, which govern the

rates o many biological and chemical reactions and control criticalecosystem processes. Global distribution o vegetation is expected to

shit pole-ward and altitudinally, prompting shits in species climaticzones, patterns o migration and abundance, while warmer (equatorial)ecosystems are expected to experience increased vulnerability to pests,

re and competition. Such shits in terrestrial ecosystem processes willaect humans everywhere; communities and regions where livelihoodsare closely tied to natural resources are especially vulnerable. Proound

changes in resource-management systems are, thus, required torespond to and limit biodiversity loss, reduced access to clean water,and altered orest and crop productivity and yields. Improving

terrestrial ecosystems' resilience dened as the capacity to maintainsimilar structure, unctioning and eedbacks despite shocks andperturbations must orm a central part o climate adaptation actions.

There are a host o adaptation options or increasing theresilience o terrestrial ecosystems, many o which are based on

Table 11: Policy options to increase terrestrial ecosystem resilience


Market-based Costing ecosystem goods and services to create new markets orthem. Subsidies to eco-tourism (market-based conservationschemes). Permits (tradable or not) or species extraction/use

and mineral/abiotic extraction. Taxes and tax incentives ormaintaining ecosystem structure and unction.

Regulatory Legal protection o endangered species and habitats.Sustainable ecosystem products (e.g. eco-labelling and greenmarketing). Import taris and subsidies that protect criticalspecies and habitat in other countries and removal o exportsubsidies that lead to species and habitat loss within the country.Quotas or species, minerals and water extraction. Water, soil,and other abiotic quality standards and controls. Zoningrequirements (e.g., limiting food-plain development and build-ing in sensitive areas).

Public investment Integrated water management and adaptive managementinstitutions and programmes. Livelihood-diversicationprogrammes to reduce pressure on land, land-based resources,and biodiversity. State and local land reserves, including communalmanagement o protected areas. Transition programmes that helpspecies anticipate climate shits. Removal o government investmentpolicies that can have a negative impact on ecosystems. Targetedinvasive species elimination and/or harvesting to restore currentand uture habitat or native ecosystems.

Inormation-based Monitoring levels o ecosystems goods and services within asystem. Seasonal, annual and decadal climate orecasts.Consulting model outputs and scenarios to construct narrativeso possible uture climate conditions (and the respective impactsand adaptation decisions). Improved monitoring o weather (e.g.through hand-held devices). Improved education and mediareporting or understanding climate risk.


Debt or nature deals. Widespread distribution o alternativetechnologies and practices. International treaties and conventions,and bi- and multi-level agreements on cross-boundary resourcemanagement issues. International agreements outside the envi-ronmental sector that take ecosystem health into account.

Table 10: Policy options to improve water resource management


Market-based Introduce metering and volumetric pricing o water use, includingirrigation. Remove subsidies on electric power and diesel uel orirrigation pumping. Allow water-right owners to sell or lease waterto other users.

Regulatory Improve documentation o water entitlements , clariy quantitativeand temporal limits, and dene how entitlements will changewith changes in water availability. Create a ormal legal role orcommunity organizations in dening, documenting andenorcing water entitlements, and orums or watershed to basin-scale water policy-planning.

Public investment Build reservoirs, food by-pass inrastructure with activegroundwater recharge projects (where easible) and food-controlprojects as an alternative to traditional dams and levees.Encourage investment in small-scale rain-water capture systemsand urban storm drainage systems. Relocate or redesignsewerage-treatment inrastructure to avoid damage/malunctiondue to fooding.

Inormation-based Establish network o weather stations, stream gauges andmonitoring wells, and publish real-time inormation onwatershed/aquier conditions. Establish a phone network to

convey fash-food warnings. Set up educational programmes onecient irrigation practices.


Establish joint scientic programmes among nations sharingtrans-boundary water resources. Identiy rigidities in existing treatiesand environmental agreements relating to these water resources andevaluate their potential consequences. Negotiate contingency plansand joint investment projects with neighbouring countries.

well-established, classical natural resource management approaches

(some o the main types o policies are summarised in Table 11).In general, simply implementing what is already known to protectterrestrial ecosystems will likely be benecial or adapting to climate

change. However, policymakers need to consider a number oactors that make some adaptation policies unique, including theneed to take both ast-moving variables such as extreme-weather

events and slow-moving variables such as changes in hydrology andsediment concentration into account. And the impact on humanso changes that have already occurred need to be considered: an

adaptation policy that restores an ecosystem to its natural state,


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Table 12: Policy options to increase marine ecosystem resilience

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such as through dam removal, may improve ecosystem resilienceat the expense o humans whose livelihoods and security are

dependent upon the current conguration o the ecosystem, such asthrough food protection and energy production. The interaction oadaptation policies with mitigation measures also needs to be taken

into account. For example, an adaptation policy that encouragesreorestation can improve resilience by increasing biodiversity andhabitat permeability, while also increasing mitigation benets through

additional capture and storage o carbon in the enhanced plant andsoil matter. On the other hand, an adaptation policy that protects

critical habitat or endangered species might prevent the developmentand commercialization o available renewable energy resources withinthe protected area (such as wind, geothermal and solar energy). The

most successul adaptations policies are likely to include those thatemphasize adaptive management and governance, research into socialsciences, and developing incentives and disincentives or altering

behaviour.

Increasing marine ecosystems resilience

Empirical observations and models indicate ocean conditionshave been changing over the last 100 years and will most likely change

more rapidly in the uture. Major changes include ocean warming,acidication and expansion o oxygen minimum zones (the zone in


Market-based Tradable shing quotas (e.g. inter-transerable quotas). Fishingcapacity buybacks. Polluter-paid schemes. Sustainablecertication schemes. Tax incentives (or disincentives).Elimination o bad subsidies.

Regulatory Fishing input controls. Fishing output controls . Legislation orthe conservation o threatened species. Ecosystem andenvironmental standards (e.g., Marine Strategy FrameworkDirective). Integrated marine spatial planning.

Public investment Sewage treatment acility. Investment in protected marine areas.Investment in resource-management research. Development oalternative livelihoods or shing communities.

Inormation-based Control surveillance and vessel monitoring system. Integratedassessment o marine ecosystems. Public education.


International agreement on sheries, shipping, biodiversity anddumping. Regional shery management organizations. Internationalresearch collaboration and agreements on technological transer.

which oxygen saturation in seawater in the ocean is at its lowest).

Biological responses to these ocean changes have been observedin the marine biomes. Climate change could lead to high rates ospecies invasion in high latitude regions and local extinction along

the tropics. Marine climate change aects primary productivity,species distribution and community and ood-web structure, whichhave direct and indirect impacts on distribution and productivity o

marine organisms. These have implications or the goods and servicesprovided by the marine ecosystems to human societies.

Marine ecosystems are constantly changing as a result o

changes in environmental conditions or human disturbance. In manycases, such changes are reversible, but only when environmentalchanges or disturbances are not too large. Ecosystem resilience is

the magnitude o perturbation resulting rom external human andenvironmental pressures that an ecosystem can withstand beore

such irreversible ecosystem changes occurs. Marine biodiversity,productivity and ecosystem unctioning have already been alteredsubstantially by human activities, (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

2003). The main human impacts include overshing, pollution andhabitat destruction, which have increased ecosystem vulnerability andreduced its resilience, and exacerbated the impacts o climate change.

Improving ecosystem resilience must orm an importantelement o climate-change adaptation policies. The main approachis to develop eective policy responses that regulate and manage

human activities, and reduce other impacts on marine ecosystems.In doing so, it is important to understand the role o dierent socio-economic drivers in inducing pressures on the marine environment,

leading to changes in the ecosystem states and impacts on the welareo people and communities. A range o policy options may be applied,most o which aim to manage or reduce pressures rom human

activities on marine ecosystems (Table 12).

Reducing extreme weather event impacts

Economic losses and human suering caused by extreme

weather events such as foods, droughts and other climate-relatedevents have escalated alarmingly in recent decades. Annual monetarylosses rom large-scale events have risen globally by an order o

magnitude within our decades, an increase that cannot be ullyexplained by population or economic growth (Mills, 2009). Accordingto the IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report, anthropogenic climate

change is very likely to lead to increases in intensity and requencyo weather extremes throughout this century (IPCC, 2007). Low- andmiddle-income countries, and especially vulnerable people within

these countries, suer the most. Not only are there considerabledierences in developed and developing countries in the immediate


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DISASTEROCCURS

DISASTERCYCLE

RISK &VULNERABILITY

ANALYSIS

REHABITILATION& RESTORING SERVICES

EMERGENCYRELIEF

DisasterResponse

DisasterPreparedness

PREDICTION & EARLYWARNING

AWARENESSRAISING & DISASTER

MITIGATION

RECOVERY &RECONSTRUCTION

RISK SPREADING& TRANSFER

Figure 3: Disaster management cycle

human and economic burden, but also in insurance cover. In the richest

countries, about 30% o the losses are insured compared with onlyabout 1% in low-income countries.

Many highly exposed developing countries do not have the

means to raise capital to replace or repair damaged assets and restorelivelihoods ollowing major disasters, exacerbating the impacts odisaster shocks on poverty and development. Exposed countries

oten have to rely on donors to 'bail' them out ater events, thoughonly partial relie and reconstruction unding is usually made availableand, even then, it oten does not reach those most in need. Bilateral

and multilateral donors currently allocate 98% o their disaster-management unds or relie and reconstruction and only 2% orproactive disaster risk management. Nonetheless, over the last ew

years, there has been a shit in international responses to naturaldisasters towards more proactive activity and upgrading the role o

pre-disaster risk management. These eorts tie in with the distinctionin climate-change policies between reactive (gradual coping with theconsequences over time) and proactive climate adaptation (planned

actions to prepare or climate change and reduce the associatedadverse impacts) (Figure 3).

This gure showspreparedness (riskmanagement) andresponse (respondingto impacts)

Policy options to reduce the various impacts o weather-

related disasters and manage risk relate to assessing risk, reducing risk(prevention and preparedness), preparing or impacts, transerring andspreading it to a larger basis (risk nancing) and, nally, responding to

an event through reconstruction and rehabilitation (Table 13: See nextpage). Prevention and preparedness options reduce the losses, whileinsurance and other risk nancing instruments lessen the variability

o losses by spreading and pooling risks. The policy options covershort-term disaster-risk management (aimed at reducing current andnear-uture risk up to, or example, a decade ahead), to long-term

climate adjustment (or example, land-use planning to respond to therisk o fooding) or both.


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Table 13: Policy options to reduce extreme weather event impacts

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POLICY OPTION CATEGORY TIME HORIZON

MARKET-BASED

REGULATORY PUBLICINVESTMENT

INFORMA-TION-BASED

INTLCO-OPERA-TION

SHORTTERM(10YRS)

Risk assessment Hazard assessment

Vulnerability assess-ment

Risk assessment

Hazard monitoring& orecasting

Risk reduction Physical & structuralrisk reduction works

Land-use planning& building codes

Economic incentives

or proactive riskmanagement

Education, training& awareness raising

Preparedness Early warning sys-tems, communica-tion systems

Contingency plan-ning

Networks o emer-gency responders

Shelter acilities& evacuation plans

Risk nancing Risk transer

Alternative risktranser

National and localreserve unds

Calamity unds

R es po nse Hu ma ni ta ri an as si s-tance

Clean-up, temporaryrepairs & restorationo services

POLICY OPTION CATEGORY TIME HORIZON

MARKET-BASED

REGULATORY PUBLICINVESTMENT

INFORMA-TION-BASED

INTLCO-OPERA-TION

SHORTTERM(10YRS)

Damage assessment

Mobilization orecovery resources

Reconstructionand rehabili

A practical framework for planning pro-development climate policy

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