Karachi’s Transport Issues More Questions Than Answers

Karachi Conference 2014 Karachi Arts Council November 22, 2014

Mansoor Raza mansooraza@gmail.com

Credits • This Presentation is based on the

work done by Mr. Arif Hasan, Urban Resource Center, Karachi and the presenter. Iqbal Shadab, a student at SZABIST, also contributed to the presentation

Sources

• Understanding Karachi, Planning and Reforms for the future, By Arif Hasan and others

• Various Census Reports • Various researches on Karachi‘s

transport issues and acceptability of motorbikes/scooties by Arif Hasan and associates

• CDGKP Plan 2020 • Report by JICA

Architecture of the

Presentation

The Linkages • Demographics

• Livelihoods

• Family Structure

• Housing

Karachi’s Demographics Year Karachi

Urban Population

1941 394,917

1951 1,068,459

1961 1,912,603

1972 3,515,402

1981 5,208,132

1998 9,339,235

2014 (oft. cited)

Above 20 million

Total Addition 1941-1998 8,944,318 Total Addition 1951-1981 (30 years) 4,139,673

IS APPROXIMATELY EQUAL TO Total Addition 1981 -1998 (17 years) 4,131,103 In 1951 for every male there were 3.2 Females, and in In 1998 for every male there were 1.16 Females, so the gender gap is narrowing (we will see further in upcoming slides) Does transport sector has the capacity or necessary support to cater to the changing realities?

Year PA Growth

1941- 1951 10.47%

1951-1961 6 %

1961-1972 5.69%

1972-1981 4.46%

1981-1998 3.5%

Without Mass Transit…!!! • 56 percent of employment in

manufacturing is in SITE Area, Landhi and Korangi Area

• More than 80 percent of the business service are located in central area

• 50 percent of the employment in wholesaling and transport is in the central area. *

• Trip lengths is in the range of 20-40 km for working class commuters.**

• There are 24.2 million person trips generated in Karachi every day, out of which at least 60% are realized through the existing system of public transport**

• 60 percent of those trips are made by students in various categories

• City has an equally large informal sector, that is dispersed throughout the City.

• Karachi has to generate 3.5 million jobs at every five year interval for the rapid population growth

Mass transit of a wide network is absolutely necessary…with a provision for parking and place for vendors… as commuters, transport and shopping facilities are inseparable entities.

At a Glance 1% 0% 2%

4%

50%

38%

5%

Minbuses Buses Taxi Rickshaw

Motorcycles Cars Others

Registered Vehicles 2011

Minbuses 15,807

(8,773, in 1998) 0.60%

Buses 6,506

(14,854, in 1998) 0.25%

Taxi 47,165

(13,613, in 1998) 1.80%

Rickshaw 105,684

(23,337, in 1998) 4.04%

Motorcycles 1,296,481 49.59%

Cars 998,920 38.21%

Others 144,017 5.51%

Total* 2,614,580 100.00%

1. Public transport (including para transport) is only 7 percent.

2. Motorcycles and cars cumulatively 88 percent (approx)

3. ‘Others’ includes trucks, lifters, ambulances, oil tankers etc.

4. Number of buses reduced to 65 percent in 13 years

How safe Karachi Roads Are

Total Accidents from 2008 - 2013

Percent of Total Accidents

Motorbikes 3,532 37.47

Bus/Minibus Coach

1,252 13.28

Car 1,011 10.73

Truck 592 6.28

Dumper 341 3.62

Others…. …. ….

Total in 6 Years

9,425

1. The number of fatal accidents, over the last 6 years has shown a downward trend.

2. In 2013, the fatal accidents were less than 1400.

3. The two big sources of accidents are motorbikes and bus/coach & minibuses.

4. Only rickshaws and oil tankers have shown an increasing tendency.

5. In 2000, majority of the accidents, though, took place in Saddar Town, but fatality rate was highest for Bin Qasim Town; 15.34/100,000 population. Its close to fatality rates of USA in that particular year.

Infrastructure Issues

• Entry and Exit of underpasses and flyovers points clogged during peak hours.

• Pedestrians bridges are few and far off.

• Pedestrian bridges are insensitive to old agers and patients of rheumatic arthritis.

• Signal free corridors promotes speeding, resulting in serious accidents – and promote an elitist mindset.

• Establishing CNG stations along main arteries causes serious traffic jams.

The city district government of Karachi had identified 320 spots as potentially dangerous and installed 45 pedestrian bridges in the city, But at least Rs 4 billion would be needed for all 320 sites. ----Year 2011

CNG CONNUDRUM • Each CNG Kit costs Rs. 150,000 to 200,000

• By December 2014, total production in Pakistan is 400 mmcfd

• Sindh CNG stations draws only 2 percent of the total production

• Use of gas to produce electricity by both domestic and commercial sector

•Unaccounted for gas permissible limit is 4 percent but it has increased from 4 percent to 13 percent •Savings by using CNG instead of petrol is Rs.10,000 to Rs. 15,000 per month •Industries use gas despite national grid is available to those Once converted to CNG, a bus cannot be reverted back to diesel

Diesel Petrol Gas

Cost of producing electricity per unit

Rs. 40 Rs. 17 Rs. 6 /7

Commuters’ Perspective • Majority is ‘bi-modal’; bus and

rickshaw – but bus occupies the major chunk of the pie

• It is hard to find transport on strike days

• It gets difficult to get bus, after dusk – bus operators are tired, not safe and to have CNG for the next day

• Prolonged travel time – as number of buses plying are few, traffic congestion, lack of traffic disciplines- bus waiting time etc…

•Overcrowding •Termination of trip and u-turns •Injuries due to high foot rest and irregular loading and off-loading •Unsafe installation of CNG cylinders •Irregular bus fares because if dysfunctional regulatory authorities •Safety and security – robberies •Per annum expense is Rs. 18,000 approx. 624 hours is per annum commutation time – equivalent to 78 work days…and the time loss is double otherwise

Women Perspective

Karachi Women 1981 1998

Total Married 66.06% 59.18%

Married (b/w 15-24 years)

37.42% 28.19%

Total Employed 64,126 115,409

Total Literate 48.84% 62.88%

Educational Attainment

20.87% 27.7%

Divorced 0.23% 0.51%

•Less space in available due to segregation and old design of buses

•Female seats are occupied by males •Harassment is a common experience both in buses and Qingqis and as well at bus stops.

•Radicalization of attire creates insecurity

•Not safe to travel after sun set

•High foot paths (2ft instead of 1 ft) cause difficulties for veiled women to off-load

•Women cannot travel on roof top of minibuses (Four points why people travel on roof tops)

2. Despite increased participation in public spheres, women are not facilitated by the transport sector, adequately

1. Transport, not the credentials, becomes the sole determinant for women’s choice of job…!!!

Bus Owners Taxi/Yellow cab/Rickshaw

Mazda /Coaches

No. of vehicles? Decreasing Decreasing (though data is otherwise)

Bank Loans Available? No No

Credit Terms ? Unfriendly Unfriendly Unfriendly

Is Business Profitable? No No No

Vehicle Maintenance ? Bad/Expensive Bad Bad

Police Behavior? Bribery Rampant (Rs. 3000 per month/per vehicle)

Irritating Bribery Rampant (in 1999 Rs. 3000 per month/per vehicle)

Reasons for Traffic Jams? Public Inclination towards Private Transport

Mismanagement by traffic police

Insurance Facilities ? No No No

Major threat to Operations?

Less Fares and Security Situation

Less Fares and Security Situation

Three Operators’ Perspective

Bus Owners Taxi/Yellow cab/Rickshaw

Mazda /Coaches

Affect of change of land use?

Yes (Saddar for instance)

Compensation by govt. for arson?

No/insufficient Rs. 200,000 for a bus of Rs 4 million)

Sometimes /inadequate

No/insufficient

High Maintenance b/c of Ill-maintained roads and spare parts high cost

Ill-maintained roads and spare parts high cost

Why Ticket system dropped?

To save money To save money Last time 1992

What the bare minimum fair should be?

Rs. 48 According to the cost of the vehicle… !!!

Operators’ Perspective..cont…

The Second Opinion

• Thousands suffer from pulmonary and cardiac diseases because of air pollution, particularly those living in high density areas

• Noise pollution is not believed to be cause of any disease but a catalyst for late age mental disorders

• SOxs and NOxs are supposed to be responsible for the dilapidation of architectural heritage

• Lead (Pb) acts directly on CNS. Particularly dangerous for children as it acts 1-2 feet above the ground.

• Carbon-mono-oxide is a familiar enemy and is responsible for many illnesses. (reduce oxygen carrying capacity of blood)

• Particulate matter from break pads contribute to green house effect

Officials’ Perspective

• Traffic police is short of man power • A total of 2,188 traffic police personnel

for the roads spread over 10,000 km and for 100,000 vehicles

• 3.3 million vehicles are registered in Karachi, with a daily addition of 900 vehicles

• In the year 2000, 140 routes of minibus were approved, out of which 60-65 are operational

• In the year 2000, 60 routes for buses and were approved and only 20 are operational.

• Transporters are converting their vehicles into contract carriages, trucks and goods’ vehicle

• No new investments are made by transporters and 20 to 60-year-old vehicles are plying on the road.

• No limit to life of vehicle is defined by the provincial government

“NO IMMEDIATE SOLUTION TO TRAFFIC WOES IS POSSIBLE.”

Housing Transport Connect

• Living on periphery means increased cost of transportation, associated discomfort and more time spent on commutation.

• It also means that women who have to look after families cannot work

And then.. • There is an increase in travelling cost

So.. • Its cheap to rent a place in the center of the city…resulting in densification

Just to know that…

1. Low income group constitutes 68 percent of Karachi’s population.

2. Density is 6,000 persons per square kilometer

3. Between 1998 and 2011, average HH size has increased from 6.7 percent to 7.3 percent. Its due to shortage of housing and not because of any increase in fertility rates.

4. 88 percent of the houses are built on 120 and less square yards

5. Houses built on 400-800 square yards are 2 percent of the total houses and they occupy 21 percent of the total 36 percent of the residential land of Karachi

Family in Transition • According to the Karachi Strategic

Development Plan 2020 Survey, 89 percent of families in Karachi are nuclear. In the 1989 Survey the figure was 54 percent.

• Education of Children, the want for independence, different life styles of immediate family members and upward social mobility are some of the reasons for spin off.

• Affordability, security and availability of the transport to commute to job place and educational institution dictates the choice of residence for the separating couples.

Same holds true for all other institutions. To name the few … •Education •Health •Marriage •Love •Sports •Parenting •Deviance and Crime…

So it’s a society in transition.

Qingqi – The alternative • Almost 50,000 unregistered Qingqi in the

city • Generating a revenue some where

between 2.5 to 3 million a day by transporting approximately 250,000 passengers

• Operated from informal ‘addas’. • Addas are operated under the patronage

of political parties. Almost all Qingqi’s have to give Rs. 150/day. Total amount Rs. 7.5 million per day…!!!

• Blamed for slowing down of other vehicles and creating congestion

• Used by women freely with complains of harassment, mostly by motorcyclists

• City has a need of further 80,000 Qinqqis

WHY IT IS POPULAR 1. No mass

transit plan 2. Fare is

cheaper 3. No waiting

time 4. Can stop

any where

Motorbike – The Alternative?

Figures • 1990 --- 450,000 • 2004 --- 500,000 • 2010 --- 1,000,000 (1 million) • 2030 --- 3,600,000 • Almost 57 bikes for 1,000

person • By 2030, there will be 115

bikes for every 1,000 persons

Popularity Reasons: • A cheaper means of travel than public transport, (Bus Rs. 1570 and bike Rs. 784)

• Provide flexibility, and • Save time in commuting.

Challenges are • Those cause congestion on the roads, • Adding to noise and air pollution. • A major source of fatal accidents. • Women, though willing, are restricted to drive, because of cultural reasons

What needs to de done? •Design need to be improved for back view mirror and to make it culturally sensitive.

•Extension of credit and easy-to-pay installments.

•Allocation of separate lane.

CONCLUSION

1 The Rail based mass transit will cater up to to 5-6 percent of the commuting public. Delhi caters to 4.8 percent and Bangkok 3 percent

Rail based transit is expensive. BRT is comparatively cheaper but without subsidy it cannot operate. Lahore is Rs. 20/person (shadra- gajomata, for a track of 27 Km. Govt. is pushing for Rs. 40/person) and without a subsidy of Rs. 1 Billion it will go upto Rs. 80/person

2

Hence, para-transit will always be needed… and 3

We need to answer…

1

2 Do we want to promote those?

If yes to point number 2 then what policies are required to facilitate the two pro-poor modes of conveyance….and …any planning/engineering should not be divorced with the social realities of masses.

Do we want to curtail Motorbikes and Qinqis?

OR