A P R I L 2 0 0 8A P R I L 2 0 0 8 I M G A B O A R D M E E T I N GI M G A B O A R D M E E T I N G...
-
Upload
godfrey-may -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
1
Transcript of A P R I L 2 0 0 8A P R I L 2 0 0 8 I M G A B O A R D M E E T I N GI M G A B O A R D M E E T I N G...
A P R I L 2 0 0 8
I M G A B O A R D M E E T I N G
Prepayment market update
S T
R I
C T
L Y
P R
I V A
T E
A N
D
C O
N F
I D E
N T
I A L
I M G A
This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the JPMorgan client to whom it is directly addressed and delivered (including such client’s subsidiaries, the “Client”) in order to assist the Corporation in evaluating, on a preliminary basis, the feasibility of a possible transaction or transactions and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure, in whole or in part, to any other party. This presentation is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by JPMorgan. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be disclosed or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of JPMorgan.
The information in this presentation is based upon any management forecasts supplied to us and reflects prevailing conditions and our views as of this date, all of which are accordingly subject to change. JPMorgan’s opinions and estimates constitute JPMorgan’s judgment and should be regarded as indicative, preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. In preparing this presentation, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was provided to us by or on behalf of the Client or which was otherwise reviewed by us. In addition, our analyses are not and do not purport to be appraisals of the assets, stock, or business of the Client or any other entity. JPMorgan makes no representations as to the actual value which may be received in connection with a transaction nor the legal, tax or accounting effects of consummating a transaction. Unless expressly contemplated hereby, the information in this presentation does not take into account the effects of a possible transaction or transactions involving an actual or potential change of control, which may have significant valuation and other effects.
Notwithstanding anything herein to the contrary, the Client and each of its employees, representatives or other agents may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the U.S. federal and state income tax treatment and the U.S. federal and state income tax structure of the transactions contemplated hereby and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided to the Client relating to such tax treatment and tax structure insofar as such treatment and/or structure relates to a U.S. federal or state income tax strategy provided to the Client by JPMorgan.
JPMorgan’s policies prohibit employees from offering, directly or indirectly, a favorable research rating or specific price target, or offering to change a rating or price target, to a subject Client as consideration or inducement for the receipt of business or for compensation. JPMorgan also prohibits its research analysts from being compensated for involvement in investment banking transactions except to the extent that such participation is intended to benefit investors.
IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters included herein (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone not affiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties.
JPMorgan is a marketing name for investment banking businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries worldwide. Securities, syndicated loan arranging, financial advisory and other investment banking activities are performed by a combination of J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., J.P. Morgan plc, J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. and the appropriately licensed subsidiaries of JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Asia-Pacific, and lending, derivatives and other commercial banking activities are performed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. JPMorgan deal team members may be employees of any of the foregoing entities.
This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMorgan entity to underwrite, subscribe for or place any securities or to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services.
I M G
A
B O
A R
D
M E
E T
I N G
Agenda
Page
I M G A
Outlook for 2008
Market environment
Background
1
1
6
13
I M G
A
B O
A R
D
M E
E T
I N G
I M G A
Prepayments completed ($millions)Prepayments completed ($millions)
Energy prepayments began in the 1990s, but interest has surged in the last 24 months
207 174 398749 660
1,698
775
10,676
9,462
1,049
Pre-1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000-2003 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
Treasury Review
No energy prepayments completed
*Projects completed 2008 YTD
2B A
C K
G R
O U
N D
I M G A
Total = 1800 Bcf
How much gas has been prepaid?
Municipal utilities use approximately 1800 Bcf of natural gas a year1
Public gas utilities 1200 Bcf/year Public electric utilities 600
Bcf/year
For deals completed in 2006 and 2007, prepaid gas volumes average approximately 330 Bcf/year through 2015, or 19% of total load per annum
Municipal Utilities’ Annual Load ProfilesMunicipal Utilities’ Annual Load Profiles Prepaid Volumes Comprise 19% of Total Load Prepaid Volumes Comprise 19% of Total Load
¹Source: Energy Information Administration
Total = 1800 Bcf
3B A
C K
G R
O U
N D
I M G A
Natural gas prepayments in 2007
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
Main Street$528$527
Main Street$528$527
Southeast
Alabama$907
Southeast
Alabama$907
Lower Alabama
$383
Lower Alabama
$383
Salt River
$1,159
Salt River
$1,159
Roseville
$198
Roseville
$198
Long Beach$886
Long Beach$886
PEAK$451PEAK$451
Main Street$497
Main Street$497
Indiana Bond Bank$309
Indiana Bond Bank$309
TX GAS$1,934
TX GAS$1,934
San Antonio CPS$644
San Antonio CPS$644
SCCPA
$500
SCCPA
$500
SMUD
$758
SMUD
$758
Market highlightsMarket highlights
15 gas prepayments executed in 2007 - $10.2 billion
10 gas prepayments executed in 2006 - $9.6 billion
JPMorgan led the market with $2.2 billion in 2007
Denotes JPMorgan involvement as senior manager, gas supplier, commodity swap counterparty or credit provider
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Dec
Central Plains$529
Central Plains$529
4B A
C K
G R
O U
N D
I M G A
Gas
Prepayment
Debt
Serv
ice
Bond
Pro
ceeds
Fixe
dPa
ymen
tFl
oatin
gPa
ymen
tFixed
Payment
Floating
Payment
JPMorgan Ventures
Tennergy
MunicipalBondholders
JPMorganChase & Co. Guaranty
12
3
Review of Tennergy project mechanics
IMGA andother participants
Gas
Index gasminus discount
4
BP NorthAmerica
3
2 6Commodity Swap: Tennergy and JPMVEC execute matched gas swaps with BP North America to convert pricing from fixed to a floating Index
Guaranty: JPMorgan Chase & Co. unconditionally guarantees JPMVEC’s financial obligations to Tennergy
Gas Purchase Agreement: Tennergy pays JPMorgan Ventures (JPMVEC) upfront for a 20 year supply of firm natural gas
Bond issuance: To finance the prepayment, Tennergy sells tax-exempt debt secured only by revenues from the project, non-recourse to the Participants
Gas Supply Agreement: Tennergy delivers daily gas volumes to IMGA and the other participants in exchange for a floating Index price less a discount and annual refund
1
Flo
ati
ng
Paym
ent
Gas
BP Energy
6
4Source of gas: JPMVEC enters into a 20 year physical natural gas supply contract with BP Energy
Annual Refund
5
5
5B A
C K
G R
O U
N D
Agenda
Page
I M G A
Outlook for 2008
Market environment
Background
6
1
6
13
I M G
A
B O
A R
D
M E
E T
I N G
I M G A
Prepayments depend of several value drivers
Increase in interest rates should produce greater savings
MMD/LIBOR relationship is at its lowest since June 2003 As spread widens, prepayment savings will increase
Interest Rates
Tenor
Longer prepayments typically result in greater savings by capturing more of the taxable vs. tax-exempt differential
Savings are not always linear
Natural Gas Prices
Absolute levels could be higher but stability has been helpful Higher gas prices increase the value of a prepayment
Shape of forward curve could be more contango Lower near-term pricing and less backwardation will
support prepayment savings
Prepaid Gas
Volumes
Seasonal sculpting can increase savings
Increasing prepaid volume later in the project will also improve savings (backloading)
Credit Markets
Tax-exempt prepayment bond spreads are likely to remain wide
Subprime exposure has pushed supplier credit spreads wider and even resulted in credit rating downgrades for some
?
?
?
7M A
R K
E T
E N
V I
R O
N M
E N
T
I M G A
High interest rate environment is generally more favorable
Spread between taxable and tax-exempt rates is a primary value driver Historically, the spread between tax-exempt and taxable rates widens as rates rise Wider tax-exempt/taxable spreads, or a lower MMD/LIBOR ratio, improves project
savings
Market movements have been severe in 2008, but have recently improved
3%
4%
5%
6%
Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 J ul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 J an-07 Mar-07 May-07 J ul-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
10-year LIBOR 10-year MMD MMD-LIBOR Spread
Historical 10-year AAA MMD vs. 10-year LIBOR1Historical 10-year AAA MMD vs. 10-year LIBOR1
MMD & LIBOR Rates LIBOR/MMD Spreads
1Reflects market conditions as of April 21, 2008
Optimal environment: High rates and high spread between MMD and LIBOR
8M A
R K
E T
E N
V I
R O
N M
E N
T
I M G A
Ultimately, it is the combination of interest rates and credit spreads that are a key factor
Illustration - Taxable funding levels vs. tax-exempt prepayment pricingIllustration - Taxable funding levels vs. tax-exempt prepayment pricing
Gas supplier’s cost of capital is a function of LIBOR plus a specific credit spread
Municipal issuer’s cost of capital is a function of MMD plus a specific credit spread
Gas Supplier Municipal Issuer
LIBOR
Credit Spread
MMD
Credit Spread
Prepayment Value
VS.
9M A
R K
E T
E N
V I
R O
N M
E N
T
I M G A
Gas suppliers’ credit spreads have increased sharply since August 2007
As financial institutions have taken over $206 billion of write-downs on their exposure to subprime mortgages
These write-downs created anxiety among investors and, in part, led to investors demanding increased credit spreads
Source: The Wall Street Journal, 01/18/08
5Y Credit default swap spreads (bps)
Source: JPMorgan DataQuery, as of April 15, 2008
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
Feb-07 Apr-07 J un-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08
J PMorgan (Aa2/ AA-/ AA-)
Bank of America (Aa1/ AA/ AA)
Citigroup (Aa3/ AA-/ AA)
Goldman Sachs (Aa3/ AA-/ AA-)
Merrill Lynch (A1/ A+/ A+)
10M A
R K
E T
E N
V I
R O
N M
E N
T
I M G A
As supplier credit spreads have increased, so have credit spreads for prepayment bonds
Source: JPMorgan DataQuery, as of April 15, 2008. Spreads to MMD.
10Y MMD vs. the spreads of prepayment bonds10Y MMD vs. the spreads of prepayment bonds
Spreads (bps)
MMD Rates
Prepayment bond ratings are based primarily on gas supplier’s credit
Prepayment bond credit spreads in some cases have increased more on a percentage basis than gas suppliers credit spreads have increased
11M A
R K
E T
E N
V I
R O
N M
E N
T
I M G A
NYMEX natural gas curve as of April 23, 2008NYMEX natural gas curve as of April 23, 2008
Gas market dynamics appear stable
The stability in gas prices, especially compared to the rates and credit markets, has been conducive to the execution of prepayments
A gas curve that is more contango would create more savings Natural gas prices are notoriously unpredictable due to their correlation with
weather
*JPMorgan forecast as of March 10, 2008
12M A
R K
E T
E N
V I
R O
N M
E N
T
Agenda
Page
I M G A
Outlook for 2008
Market environment
Background
13
1
6
13
I M G
A
B O
A R
D
M E
E T
I N G
I M G A
Outlook for balance of 2008?
Taxablevs
Tax-Exempt Rates
Tax-ExemptPrepayment
Bond Spreads
Gas Supplier’sCost of Capital
Investor Demandand
Market Access
Alternative FundingStructures
Absolute Level ofInterest Rates
14O U
T L
O O
K
F O R
2 0
0 8
I M G A
Interest rates expected to trend slightly higher
Interest Rate Forecast (%)Interest Rate Forecast (%)
Economic Data1 (%ch q/q, saar, unless otherwise noted)Economic Data1 (%ch q/q, saar, unless otherwise noted)
1 Data as of 4/18/2008* Q4/Q4 change
04/18/08 06/30/08 09/30/08 12/31/08 03/31/09
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Security Current Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Fed Funds Target 2.25 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
3-Month LIBOR 2.91 2.15 1.95 2.00 2.15
3-Month T-bill 1.35 0.90 0.85 1.05 1.20
2-Year T-note 2.17 1.50 1.80 1.90 2.00
5-Year T-note 2.95 2.65 3.00 3.05 3.15
10-Year T-note 3.74 3.80 4.05 4.10 4.15
30-Year T-bond 4.52 4.65 4.85 4.90 4.90
Source: J PMorgan, MorganMarkets.
JPMorgan economic forecast
15O U
T L
O O
K
F O R
2 0
0 8
I M G A
Supplier credit spreads have shown some improvement
5Y Credit default swap spreads (bps)
Source: JPMorgan DataQuery, as of April 15, 2008
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
Oct-07 Dec-07 J an-08 Apr-08
J PMorgan (Aa2/ AA-/ AA-)
Bank of America (Aa1/ AA/ AA)
Citigroup (Aa3/ AA-/ AA)
Goldman Sachs (Aa3/ AA-/ AA-)
Merrill Lynch (A1/ A+/ A+)
16O U
T L
O O
K
F O R
2 0
0 8
I M G A
The MMD/LIBOR relationship has rebounded from extreme levels
The spread on 10 year MMD vs. 10 year LIBOR bottomed at just 11 basis points from a high of nearly 170 basis points on July 6th , it has since rebounded by approximately 60 basis points
Though the future is uncertain, market movement in recent weeks is encouraging
3.00%
3.25%
3.50%
3.75%
4.00%
4.25%
4.50%
4.75%
5.00%
4-J an 11-J an 18-J an 25-J an 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb 29-Feb 7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10-year LIBOR 10-year MMD MMD-LIBOR Spread
2008 10-year AAA MMD vs. 10-year LIBOR12008 10-year AAA MMD vs. 10-year LIBOR1
MMD & LIBOR Rates LIBOR/MMD Spreads
1Reflects market conditions as of April 15, 2008
Low of 11 bps
17O U
T L
O O
K
F O R
2 0
0 8
I M G A
What does this mean for prepayments?
Potential for continued market improvement and project execution MMD vs. LIBOR spread Supplier credit spreads Prepayment bond spreads
Is investor demand returning to the fixed rate bond market? Long term market seeing some strength Size constraints improving
Can additional projects get done with variable rate financing structure? Credit availability Prepaid supplier funding considerations Additional termination events
Prepayment market depends on future market technicals and economic news Municipal market supply/demand Tax-exempt vs. taxable ratios News/earnings reports for investment banks/commercial banks Overall credit cycle
18O U
T L
O O
K
F O R
2 0
0 8
I M G A
Tennergy project team
• Lance Etcheverry – [email protected]
• Melissa Houskamp – [email protected]
• Robert Servas – 212-834-7155
McKee NelsonMcKee Nelson
• Doug Bird – [email protected]
JPMorgan Ventures EnergyJPMorgan Ventures Energy
• Chris Calger – [email protected]
• Mark Lenczowski – [email protected]
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. BP Corporation North AmericaBP Corporation North America
• Troy Black – [email protected]
• Don Black – [email protected]
Bass, Berry & SimsBass, Berry & Sims
• Mark Mamantov – [email protected]
• Russ Miller – [email protected]
Tennergy CorporationTennergy Corporation
• Philip Bell – [email protected]
• Mechele Williams – 731-422-7254 [email protected]
Hunton & WilliamsHunton & Williams
• Darrell Smelcer – [email protected]
• Lynn Gavin – [email protected]
19O U
T L
O O
K
F O R
2 0
0 8