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2015

RNoAF Academy

Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy3 February - 5 February 2015

A new Russia?Consequences for Norway

and the Royal Norwegian Air Force?

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Welcome to the Air Power Conference 2015!

On behalf of the Chief of Staff of the Royal Norwegian Air Force, the Air Force Academy once again welcomes you to the Air Power Conference here at Kuhaugen in Trondheim.

The focus of this year’s Conference is Russia and how a more aggressive Russian foreign and defence policy will affect the West, Norway, and the Norwegian Air Force. Russia demonstrates an ability and a willingness to use its military power in order to promote its interests beyond its own borders. The Russian annexation of Crimea, and the subsequent conflict in Eastern Ukraine, has unsettled a significant segment of the Western world. It has severely affected the relationship between Russia and NATO/EU,

both in terms of security policy and economy. Meanwhile, we see an unprecedented renewal and modernisation of the Russian military capacity, with new platforms and weapons systems introduced, which gives our neighbour in the East new opportunities and alters operational procedures.

This year’s Conference sets out to illuminate the background for these choices in Russian politics, and to explore what this means, in terms of the political and the military, for NATO, the EU and, ultimately, for the Norwegian Air Force.

The Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy educates officers for the future Air Force and Defence Force. The Academy considers it crucial that these officers understand the political context and the framework within which air power is exercised. As a consequence, the Air Power Conferences at the Air Force Academy set out to illuminate their chosen topic, initially from a political and strategic level, moving down to the operational and tactical level as the Conference progresses. This year’s Conference follows the same pattern. I would claim that this year we have again managed to achieve this with a highly topical and interesting subject, and the interest around this year’s Conference would seem to confirm this.

A Conference at the Air Force Academy should not be limited to the professional; it should also be a social arena in which good experiences are created. The traditional Wednesday cod dinner is the pinnacle of this social interaction, but there should definitely be room for both social and cultural arenas beyond this.

I wish every one of you the best of luck with this year’s Conference, and I hope you will pass some rewarding days at the Air Force Academy!

Morten HenriksenColonelCommandant, The Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy

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ProgramTuesday 3 February

Welcome speech by the Commandant of the RNoAF Academy, Colonel Morten Henriksen.Opening remarks by the Chief of Staff of the Royal Norwegian Air Force, Major General Per Egil Rygg. Conference introduction and administrative information by project officer for the Air Power Conference 2015, Captain Marianne Eidem.

Dr. Timofey Bordachev is the Director of Center for Comprehensive International and European Studies at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. He is one of the leading experts in Russian foreign policy, and an author of several books and publications. He is also a senior academic advisor of Valdai International Discussion Club and Director of Studies in Council for Foreign and Defence Policy.

Dr. Julie Wilhelmsen is a Senior researcher at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI). She speaks Russian and delivered her PhD on the Chechen–Russian conflict (When Global Conflict fuels local war) at the University in Oslo. She has edited the book (2011) “Russia’s Encounter with Globalization. Actors, Processes and Critical Moments”.

Carl Bildt was Sweden’s Prime Minister (1991-1994) and the Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs (2006-2014). He was the European Union’s Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia (1995) and the United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Balkans (1999-2001).

Jonas Gahr Støre was the Norwegian Ministerof Foreign Affairs (2005-2012) and Minister ofHealth and Care Services (2012-2013). He iscurrently the leader of the Norwegian LabourParty and a member of the Parliament’s ForeignAffairs and Defense Committee.

Siri Lill Mannes is a journalist and former news anchor (TV2) and news correspondent in Russia and Chechnya. She speaks Russian and has spent a substantial amount of time in Russia and the surrounding nations of the former Soviet Union. She has won national awards for her journalism, and in 2003 she published the book: Bodyguard in hell – Aleksandr and the war in Chechnya.

Do We See a New Russia? 12:00 - 12:30 Seminar Opening

The Royal Norwegian Air Force Band

Welcome speech by the COM RNoAF Academy Colonel Morten Henriksen

Opening remarks by the CoS RNoAF Major General Per Egil Rygg

Conference introduction Captain Marianne Eidem

12:30 - 13:00 What are Russia’s Foreign Policy Ambitions?Dr. Timofey Bordachev

13:00 - 13:30 How to Explain the Dynamics of Russia’s Foreign Policy?Dr. Julie Wilhelmsen

13:30 - 14:00 Coffee14:00 - 14:30 Russia seen from the EU

Carl Bildt14:30 - 15:00 Neighbourhood with Russia

- a Norwegian PerspectiveJonas Gahr Støre

15:00 - 15:30 Panel discussion:Is Russia on the offensive or on the defensive? Do we see a new Russia?

15:30 - 15:50 EpilogueSiri Lill Mannes

19:00 Informal gathering in the Officers’ Mess.

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ProgramWednesday 4 February

Dr. Peter Mattson works at the Swedish National Defence College in Stockholm. He is an expert in Russian military strategy and doctrines for a sustained period of time.

Dr. Lars Peder Haga works at the Airpower Department at the Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy in Trondheim. Haga speaks Russian and has studied Russian culture and history for a sustained period of time.

Assistant Professor Ann Karin Larssen works at the Airpower Department at the RNoAF Academy in Trondheim. Larssen has studied political science and teaches Russian defence and foreign policy at the RNoAF Academy.

Colonel Gerhard Larsen is the Executive Officer of the operations section at the Norwegian Defence Operational Headquarter. He has a broad national and international experience within the Air Force.

Major General Michael Bydén is the Chief of Staff of the Swedish Air Force. He spent most of his early career as a fighter pilot, before taking on positions as Commanding officer, Air Attaché at the Swedish Embassy Washington D.C and Chief of Staff at ISAF Regional Command North HQ.

Colonel Jaak Tarien is Chief of Staff of the Estonian Air Force. He is a graduate of the United States Air Force Academy, earned his Master’s degree from the Air Command and Staff College of the USAF Air University, and graduated from the Higher Command Studies Course at the Baltic Defence College. He has been serving as Chief of Staff of the Estonian Air Force since 2009.

Lieutenant General (r) David Tevzadze was Minister of Defence in Georgia from April 1998 to February 2004. He has a Ph.D. from the Georgian Academy of Sciences Institute of Philosophy, and has education from NATO Defence College in Rome.

Captain Helge Øglænd is a Cadet at the RNoAF Academy. He is a Norwegian fighter pilot, and participated in Operation Unified Protector in Libya (2011).

Russian Military Strategy – Perspectives on Russia seen from

the outside08:30 - 08:40 The RNoAF Band08:40 - 08:45 Opening remarks

Associate professor Øistein Espenes

08:45 - 09:10 Russian Military Strategy and Doctrine Dr. Peter Mattson

09:10 - 09:35 Russian AirpowerDr. Lars Peder Haga

09:35 - 09:55 Coffee09:55 - 10:20 Russia, Norway, and the High

NorthAssistant Professor Ann Karin Larssen

10:20 - 10:45 Panel discussion: Is the new Russian military doctrine a doctrine for increased influence in the High North?

10:45 - 10:50 Information parallel lunch-session

10:50 - 13:00 Lunch & parallel sessions

Lecture A: Russian Military Air Activity in the North. Colonel Gerhard Larsen

Lecture B: Russian Military Activity in the Baltic Sea. Major General Michael Bydén

Lecture C: Russia Seen from the Baltics. Colonel Jaak Tarien

Lecture D: The Russian-Georgian War in 2008, why Russia went to War.Lieutenant General (r) David Tevzadze

Lecture E: The Russian Nuclear Factor. Captain Helge Øglænd

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ProgramWednesday 4 February

Magnus Nordenman is the Deputy Director of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC. He writes and speaks on transatlantic security, Nordic-Baltic defense, and US military affairs. He is the author of, among other things, the recent Council policy report NATO in an Era of Global Competition.

Colonel Ihor Kosiak has been appointed at several positions in Main Operational Directorate of General staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2007. At the moment he is Chief of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Directorate of J3 Main Directorate.

Dr. Stefanie Babst is the Head of the Strategic Analysis Capability Team of the NATO Secretary General and Chairman of the Military Committee. She was NATOs Acting Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy from 2006-2012. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science.

Dr. Tor Bukkvoll is a researcher at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI). He is an ex-pert in political and military development in Russia and Ukraine. He speaks fluent Russian and Ukrain-ian, and has spent long periods in both countries.

13:00 - 13:30 Russia Seen from USAMagnus Nordenman

13:30 - 14:00 Lessons from Ukraine 2013-2014 Colonel Ihor Kosiak

14:00 - 14:25 Coffee14:25 - 14:55 Russia Seen from NATO

Dr. Stefanie Babst14:55 - 15:40 Panel discussion:

Russian Expansion - Is there a “Red line” for USA and NATO?

15:40 - 16:00 EpilogueTor Bukkvoll

18:30 - 24:00 Mess Dinner in the Officers’ Mess.

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ProgramThursday 5 February

Lieutenant General (r) Freek Meulman is leading the project Future Vector Programme, focusing on the development of European airpower towards 2040. During his long career he has held a number of important positions, including Deputy Commander Air at ISAF Headquarters, Netherlands Deputy Chief of Defense, Netherlands Permanent Military Representative to NATO and the EU Military Committee in Brussels.

Brigadier Lars Christian Aamodt is the Chief of Air Operations in the Royal Norwegian Air Force. He started his career as a fighter pilot, and has acquired a broad military and civilian experience, including civilian and military air operations. He holds a master of science in Resource and Security Strategy.

Brigadier General Jan Ove Rygg assumed responsibility as Head of the Norwegian National Air Operations Centre (NAOC) 1. August 2014. He started his career as an fighter pilot. He has a broad operational background, amongst other assignments, six years in NATO CAOCs, and he served in OUP CFACC at CAOC Poggio Renatico as Director Operations (2011).

Lieutenant Colonel John Olav Birkeland works at the NATO Allied Maritime Command at Northwood. His operational background is from the MPA (Orion). He has three Master degrees: in Political Science, Military Science and History, and Military Operational Art & Science.

Peter Normann Waage is a writer, translator, journalist, cultural historian and a specialist on Russian culture. He has published several books on historical and political topics. He is honored with several awards, and is appointed state stipendiary as of 2013.

Consequences for Norwegian Air Power?

08:30 – 08:35 Opening remarks Major Freddy Moland

08:35 – 09:05 Russia, NATO, and the Air Power Challenges toward 2040Lieutenant General (r) Freek Meulman

09:05 – 09:30 Airpower in the High North – the Way Ahead?Brigadier Lars Christian Aamodt

09:30 – 10:00 Coffee10:00 – 10:25 Russia, Norwegian Crisis

Management and the Establishment of the New National Air Operations Centre (NAOC) – Norwegian Airpower in a National PerspectiveBrigadier General Jan Ove Rygg

10:25 – 10:50 Norwegian Air Power – Are We Debating the Right Issues in the Right Manner?Lieutenant Colonel John Olav Birkeland

10:50 – 12:00 Lunch12:00 – 12:45 Panel Debate:

Norwegian Air Power: a multi-tool for Crisis Management in the High North?

12:45 – 13:15 Seminar Epilogue: Russia, Ukraine and the West – Do We Understand Each Other? Peter Normann Waage

13:15 - 13:30 Closing remarks Representative of COS RNoAF Brigadier Øyvind Strandman