Vulnerability Assessment

A multi-scale trans-disciplinary vulnerability assessment

Multi-Scale

Acknowledgements

Future Forest Ecosystem Scientific Council

BC Ministries of Environment & Forest Lands and Natural Resource Operations

Bulkley Valley Research Centre Don Morgan BC Ministry of Environment and Bulkley Valley Research Centre Dave Daust Consultant and Bulkley Valley Research Centre Ken Zielke Symmtree Consulting Rick Budhwa Crossroads Consulting and Bulkley Valley Research Centre

Core Project Team

Project Objectives: 1. Forest Management Vulnerability Assessment:

• assess vulnerability of existing forest management regimes (i.e., objectives and strategies for selected ecosystem services) to climate change in the Nadina; • use stakeholder workshops to develop local adaptation policy considering a range of climate change scenario narratives (based on vulnerability); • develop a Multi-scale Vulnerability Assessment Framework to link multiple disciplines and to link local, regional, provincial and national climate change

adaptation policy. 2. Community Adaptive Capacity:

• apply livelihood assessment methods to evaluate linkages among people, resources, the environment and the changing climate, and to map out community assets for adaptation;

• apply integral theory to build community capacity and to understand how climate change and adaptation influence people’s lives.

climate

site conditions (moist. & nutr.)

natural disturbance rate

regeneration & growth rate

tree species maladaptation

timber supply

surviving volume

dead volume

climate

site type (moist. & nutr.)

natural disturbance

plant community

seral stage animal community

species tolerances

succession

other biodiversity

species interactions

climate

peak flow

vegetation cover (ECA)

bed/bank scour

road location, design & maintenance

landslides soil saturation; toe slope integrity

summer low flow

rainfall road scour

sediment

logging

riparian management

warm water input (ditches, logged wet sites)

stream temperature

disturbance

infrastructure

upstream water bodies

Clean water Sustenance lifestyle

Jobs

Local Forest managers and communities

Adaptation

Benefits

Biodiversity

Timber

Hydrology

West Kootenay

Kamloops

Nadina

Canada

BC Climate Impacts

Ecosystem Services Vulnerability

Climate Adaptation

Adaptation Workshop

Scoping Workshop

Forests

Hydrology

Biodiversity

Barrier Importance rating

Lack of provincial-scale concern XXX Lack of knowledge X Lack of planning capacity XX Lack of implementation capacity

(mandate/resources) XXX

Lack of implementation capacity (restrictive legislation and policy)

X to XXX

Key Messages/Recommendations 1) Future climates will directly influence species assemblages, affecting ecosystem function and resilience. 2) Disturbance will increase relative to historic rates, due to disease (5 – 10 X), insects (1.5 – 2 X), fire (1 – 2 X), drought (5 -10% loss of forest area) and extreme weather. 3) Almost every aspect of forest management will be affected by climate change. 4) Adaptation responses fall into two groups: --reduce risks to managed forest by a) limiting anthropogenic stress, b) promoting ecological diversity, c) guiding ecological transformation and d) beefing-up infrastructure --second, increase forest sector capacity by a) increasing monitoring and detection, b) increasing emergency response capacity and c) increasing harvesting/processing diversity and flexibility. 5) Lack of incentive is the largest barrier to adaptation. Regional-scale managers have limited discretion to act, due to legislation, provincial policy and economic imperatives. Companies are unwilling to take steps that increase cost or risk. Only the provincial government can address this significant barrier. 6) Climate change adaptation should not only focus on objective technical-scientific aspects, but also include the subjective human-cultural components of the social-ecological system.

Livelihood Assets Natural

Physical

Social

Financial

Human

Historic Adaptation Assets

Current Asset Inventory

Trans-Disciplinary

Canadian Institute of Sustainable Living

Issue Response (adaptation) Loss of old forest ecosystems and focal habitat • Increased disturbance (warmer mean temperatures

increase pests and fire hazard) • Changing species assemblages (altered microclimate

and soil moisture affects species differently) • Increased invasive species (warmer winters favour

southern species; intense fires and salvage harvesting increase soil disturbance)

• Maintain connected reserves, corridors and focal habitats (redundant reserves; flexibility to move reserves)

• Increase unroaded area • Control invasive species

Potential extirpation of culturally important plants • Changing species assemblages • Reduced seed banks (intense disturbance)

• Avoid harvesting sensitive sites • Create conditions that favour threatened plants

Reduced timber supply • Increased disturbance • Increased growth rate, but likely less than mortality

(longer, warmer growing seasons increase growth, subject to available moisture; increased CO2 increases efficiency of water use and photosynthesis)

• Control insects, disease and fire, where possible • Preferentially harvest susceptible stands • Shorten rotations • Fertilize to reduce harvest age • Regenerate diverse stands that resist insects and

disease

Loss of productive forest landbase • Changing species assemblages • Warmer climate may lead to increased human

habitation

• Avoid harvesting sensitive sites • Partially-cut stands on dry sites • Promote rapid site recovery

Increased plantation failures • Increased disturbance • Changing species assemblages

• Retain downed wood to store moisture • Regenerate diverse stands • Influence successional pathways

Reduced water quality • Increased peak flows, landslides and erosion (more

precipitation fall to spring; more rain-on-snow; more storms; less buffering capacity)

• Limit ECA to 30 to 50% of THLB • Avoid unstable terrain • Design roads to accommodate increased peak flow

and bedload transport

Infrastructure damage • Increased peak flows, landslides and erosion

• As above

Degraded fish habitat • Increasesd scour and sedimentation of spawning

gravel • Reduced summer low flows (warmer summers; less

precipitation; changes in snowpack; human use)

• As above • Limit human water use

Shift of stream ecosystem from perennial to intermittent or ephemeral (affects aquatic community and isolates fish) • Reduced summer low

• Limit human water use • Limit ECA

Possible lethal temperatures for salmonids (low elevation streams) • Increased stream temperature

• Retain riparian cover • Manage warm water sources (e.g., ditches;

deactivated roads) • Avoid harvesting sites with high water tables

Chaotic Transformation

Hail Mary Pollyanna

Oh Frick! 5o

1o

Moderate Climate Change

Rapid Climate Change

Drivers: • Technological

innovation • Participatory

governance • Increase local control • Decline of

corporatization • Economy managed for

change

Drivers: • No new technology • Low democracy • Corporate control • Low global

cooperation • Business as usual

shift to economic survival

• Increase military

Drivers: • Technological

innovation • Democracy • Balance between

local/global • Global agreements • Economy focus on

sustainability

Drivers: • New sequestration

technology • Low democracy • Corporate control • High global

cooperation • Business as usual

Oil drops rapidly (no oil remaining) Oil slow decline (oil remaining)

Scenario Planning

Future

Livelihoods and

community resilience

Vulnerability Context

Responses: • Moderately extreme

ecological degradation • Food shortage, local food

production • Managed climate

migrants • Poverty • Population shifts, some

regions with die-offs

Responses: • Very extreme ecological

degradation • Food shortage, variable

local food, famine • Un-managed random

climate migrants • Extreme poverty, in-

equity • Massive population

decline, disease, climate hazards...

Responses: • Moderate ecological

degradation • Global food system • Few climate migrants • Global inequity and class

inequity • High populations

Responses: • Minor ecological

degradation • Local food production

increases, less global • Few climate migrants • High standard of living,

equitable society • Moderate population

increase Livelihood Assessment