A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from Rockets & Missiles ISMOR 2011

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August2011 1 CSA A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from Rockets & Missiles ISMOR 2011 Maj. Barak Corem Center of System Analysis Planning Division IDF

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A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from Rockets & Missiles ISMOR 2011. Maj. Barak Corem Center of System Analysis Planning Division IDF. Contents. Background Motivation Study Questions Scope The Method Numerical Example Method’s Limitation Summary. Background. WW-II - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from Rockets & Missiles ISMOR 2011

Page 1: A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from  Rockets & Missiles ISMOR 2011

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A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from

Rockets & MissilesISMOR 2011

Maj. Barak CoremCenter of System Analysis

Planning DivisionIDF

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ContentsBackgroundMotivationStudy QuestionsScopeThe MethodNumerical ExampleMethod’s LimitationSummary

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BackgroundWW-II

The battle on London

The blitz57 continuous bombing days

43,000 casualties 1,000,000 destroyed buildings

V1/V2 attacks11,500 launches9,000 casualties

200 Al-Hussein & SCUD Missiles 700 casualties

Iran-Iraq War“War of the Cities”

300 air strikes20,000-50,000 casualties

WW-IIAttacks on Berlin

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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BackgroundDesert Storm 1991

39 Al-Hussein Missiles (SCUD) were launched at Israel 10,000 Apartments suffered damage

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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2nd Lebanon War 2006 ~4,000 rockets were fired at Israel

Hundreds of apartments were damaged

About 40 civilian casualties

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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Motivation for the AnalysisHezbollah & Hamas Massive Arming

Civilians are targeted

Israel Protected Rooms / SheltersAdvanced Warning Systems

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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Study QuestionsHow many apartments are expected to

suffer damage in a future war?Estimation of structural damageHome Front Command preparations

How many casualties are expected in a future war?

Deployment of missile defense assetsHMS Preparations

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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Scope of the AnalysisConventional rockets & missiles, not NBC

weaponsCivilian damage only

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

Civilian Damage Assessment MethodThreat to Civilian

Targets

Construction & Population

Characteristic

Number of Damaged Apartments & Casualties

Intelligenceestimation

Damage from Single Rocket/Missile

IntelligenceWarhead Testing

Population Behavior

Civilian Database

AmmunitionSpecifications

Analysis

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Threat to Civilian

RemainingThreat

InitialThreat

LegendEnemy Capabilities

Offensive AchievementsInterception

Remaining Threat

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

Construction DataBuilding-level statistics

Built Area (sq. km)Density (buildings / sq. km)Height (m)

Apartment-level statisticsArea (sq. m)Volume (cubic m)

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Weapon Damage Criteria

HeavyMediumMinor

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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Explosion on the Roof (illustration)Explosion point

volume of the damage

Upper half - no damage

Affected apartments

Affected volume* Buildings densityApartment volume

No. of affected apartments=

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

Raw damage estimate(Accuracy( X)population density)

Crisis factorsSelf evacuationReserve forces mobilization

Population Density

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Illustration of Density Calculation

High “average density”

Medium “average density”

Low “average density”

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

Medium “average density ”

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Missile B Missile A Rocket B Rocket A Protection Status

5 3 0.4 0.2 Street

3 2 0.3 0.15 Building

1.5 1 0.2 0.1 Concrete Room

1 0.5 0.1 0.05 Shelter

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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Population Behavior (Protection)

Distribution of People Protection Status

0%4 Building

30% Concrete Room

20% Shelter

10% Street

 100% Sum

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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Casualties from Single Rocket/Missile

Average Density

Ammunition Damage

 Distribution of People

Protection Status

2.4

3

2 0%4 Building

0.9 1 30% Concrete Room

0.3 0.5 20% Shelter0.9 3 10% Street

4.5 Expected casualties by single rocket/missile

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

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Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background

High variance between hits (a few extreme events might cause a large proportion of the casualties)

High levels of uncertainty:Population ObedienceOpponent Strategy

Method’s Limitation

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A method for civilian damage assessment was presented

Apartment damageCasualties

Method applicationsPrioritization of missile defense asset deployment Interception policyDefense systems build-upHome front command units deploymentPreparation of the civil authorities

Summary

Summary Method’s Limitation

Numerical Example The Method Scope Study

Questions Motivation Background