A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from Rockets & Missiles ISMOR 2011
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Transcript of A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from Rockets & Missiles ISMOR 2011
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A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from
Rockets & MissilesISMOR 2011
Maj. Barak CoremCenter of System Analysis
Planning DivisionIDF
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ContentsBackgroundMotivationStudy QuestionsScopeThe MethodNumerical ExampleMethod’s LimitationSummary
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BackgroundWW-II
The battle on London
The blitz57 continuous bombing days
43,000 casualties 1,000,000 destroyed buildings
V1/V2 attacks11,500 launches9,000 casualties
200 Al-Hussein & SCUD Missiles 700 casualties
Iran-Iraq War“War of the Cities”
300 air strikes20,000-50,000 casualties
WW-IIAttacks on Berlin
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
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BackgroundDesert Storm 1991
39 Al-Hussein Missiles (SCUD) were launched at Israel 10,000 Apartments suffered damage
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
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2nd Lebanon War 2006 ~4,000 rockets were fired at Israel
Hundreds of apartments were damaged
About 40 civilian casualties
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
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Motivation for the AnalysisHezbollah & Hamas Massive Arming
Civilians are targeted
Israel Protected Rooms / SheltersAdvanced Warning Systems
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
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Study QuestionsHow many apartments are expected to
suffer damage in a future war?Estimation of structural damageHome Front Command preparations
How many casualties are expected in a future war?
Deployment of missile defense assetsHMS Preparations
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
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Scope of the AnalysisConventional rockets & missiles, not NBC
weaponsCivilian damage only
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
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Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
Civilian Damage Assessment MethodThreat to Civilian
Targets
Construction & Population
Characteristic
Number of Damaged Apartments & Casualties
Intelligenceestimation
Damage from Single Rocket/Missile
IntelligenceWarhead Testing
Population Behavior
Civilian Database
AmmunitionSpecifications
Analysis
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Threat to Civilian
RemainingThreat
InitialThreat
LegendEnemy Capabilities
Offensive AchievementsInterception
Remaining Threat
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
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Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
Construction DataBuilding-level statistics
Built Area (sq. km)Density (buildings / sq. km)Height (m)
Apartment-level statisticsArea (sq. m)Volume (cubic m)
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Weapon Damage Criteria
HeavyMediumMinor
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
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Explosion on the Roof (illustration)Explosion point
volume of the damage
Upper half - no damage
Affected apartments
Affected volume* Buildings densityApartment volume
No. of affected apartments=
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
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Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
Raw damage estimate(Accuracy( X)population density)
Crisis factorsSelf evacuationReserve forces mobilization
Population Density
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Illustration of Density Calculation
High “average density”
Medium “average density”
Low “average density”
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
Medium “average density ”
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Missile B Missile A Rocket B Rocket A Protection Status
5 3 0.4 0.2 Street
3 2 0.3 0.15 Building
1.5 1 0.2 0.1 Concrete Room
1 0.5 0.1 0.05 Shelter
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Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
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Population Behavior (Protection)
Distribution of People Protection Status
0%4 Building
30% Concrete Room
20% Shelter
10% Street
100% Sum
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
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Casualties from Single Rocket/Missile
Average Density
Ammunition Damage
Distribution of People
Protection Status
2.4
3
2 0%4 Building
0.9 1 30% Concrete Room
0.3 0.5 20% Shelter0.9 3 10% Street
4.5 Expected casualties by single rocket/missile
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
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Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background
High variance between hits (a few extreme events might cause a large proportion of the casualties)
High levels of uncertainty:Population ObedienceOpponent Strategy
Method’s Limitation
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A method for civilian damage assessment was presented
Apartment damageCasualties
Method applicationsPrioritization of missile defense asset deployment Interception policyDefense systems build-upHome front command units deploymentPreparation of the civil authorities
Summary
Summary Method’s Limitation
Numerical Example The Method Scope Study
Questions Motivation Background