A Map of Fukushima

8/4/2019 A Map of Fukushima

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A new map from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) shows the long-term radiation risks to people living near

Japan's ailing Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

DOE-sponsored aerial surveys began measuring radiation around the plant about 1 week after the reactor was hit by

a tsunami on 11 March. The maps released before, however, have been reporting current radiation levels. Now DOE

has projected what the first-year dose would be to people living around the plant up to about 80 kilometers away

(see map). The analysis, released on 18 April, takes into account the fact that radiation levels are slowly falling

mainly due to the decay of iodine-131, which has a half-life of 8 days. It shows the high end of external exposures

what people would receive if they didn't evacuate after the accident and didn't follow advice to stay indoors.

In the red swath of land northwest of the plant where weather deposited a lot of fallout, potential exposures exceed

2000 millirems/year. That is the level at which the U.S. Department of Homeland Security would consider relocatingthe public. The area includes the places outside the 20 kilometer evacuation zone where Japanese officials advised

that people evacuate last week. (Yesterday, Japan announced it will begin enforcing a ban on entering the

evacuation zone itself.)

Although 2000 millirems over 1 year isn't an immediate health threat, it's enough to cause roughly one extra cancer

case in 500 young adults and one case in 100 1-year-olds, says Owen Hoffman, a radiation risk expert with SENES

Oak Ridge Inc. in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Still, there are parts of the worldin Guarapari, Brazil for example

where natural background radiation levels are even higher. Also worth keeping in mind is that the normal disease

A Map of Fukushima's Radiation Risksby Jocelyn Kaiseron 22 April 2011, 11:17 AM | 7 Comments

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rate is much higher: four in 10 people will eventually develop cancer without exposure to extra radiation, Hoffman

notes.

Japanese officials will need to decide whether people should be allowed to return to these areas (and hot spots with

even higher radiation levels) and explain the risks, says Hoffman. "It depends on how much hardship is associated

[with long-term evacuation]. They will have to balance social and economic considerations against future health

risks."

*This item has been amended to confirm that DOE-sponsored aerial surveys began measuring radiation around the

plant about 1 week after the reactor was hit by a tsunami, not 10 days.

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Yulia Rudy

"four in 10 people will eventually develop cancer without exposure to extra radiation" - are you sure?

Jocelyn Kaiser

Yes, unfortunately the risk of developing cancer in one's lifetime is about 4 in 10 in the United States. You

can see detailed statistics here: http://www.cancer.org/Cancer/CancerBasics/lifetime-probability-of-

developing-or-dying-from-cancer

Aaron Rizzio

Keep in mind the average dose to someone living in the US is about 400 millirems/yr (including modern medical treatments),

so basically for most people living within the 30 km exclusion zone a year's worth of radiation five times above natural

background; this is too small of a dose to be statistically measurable in terms of any future cancer rate even using the linear-

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no-threshold model. As the article partly relates areas of Brazil, India, China, and Iran have long been known to be naturally

more radioactive due to either thorium-rich monozoite beach sands or radon emissions from natural spring water.

Norman Stone

Doesn't the DOE get paid for underrating radiation risks?

Jorge

I cannot understand how can anybody say that radiation from Fukushima is harmless. Electrics: There is too much money for

gambling!

Chuck P.

No one is saying it's harmless.

Aaron Rizzio

I'll say it's harmless. The vast bulk of empirical evidence on radio-carcinogenesis indicates no statistically

measurable cancer increases below about 25 times ambient radiation levels; however extensive data

gathered to date appear to indicate there are clearly measurable "bio-positive" DECREASES in cancer rates --

the so called hormesis effect. The tens of thousands of residents who are being forcibly evacuated (even the

elderly!), if they were allowed to remain, even if they lived full-time out-of-doors, face no health risk from

any radiation emitted from the four burned-out reactors. Even 20 years of UN World Health Organization data

indicated only about 25 latent fatalities from Chernobyl -- yes thousands of apparently statistically anomalous

thyroid cancers which, fortunately, are successfully treatable in 99% of all cases.


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