“A LPB demonstration project”

Celeste Saulo CIMA and Dept. of Atmos. and Ocean Sciences

University of Buenos Aires Argentina

Christopher Cunningham Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies

National Institute for Space Research Brasil

Area: 3.100.000 km2

Inhabitants: 201.656.965

WHY LA PLATA BASIN?WHY LA PLATA BASIN?

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

GIFS-FDP PROPOSALGIFS-FDP PROPOSAL

• It is proposed to establish a GIFS Forecast It is proposed to establish a GIFS Forecast Demonstration Project (GIFS-FDP) focusing on La Plata Demonstration Project (GIFS-FDP) focusing on La Plata Basin.Basin.

• The main motivation is the variety of meteorological The main motivation is the variety of meteorological systems and scales that interact to produce the systems and scales that interact to produce the climatological summer (ONDJFM) rainfall patterns in the climatological summer (ONDJFM) rainfall patterns in the La Plata basinLa Plata basin

• In other words it is suggested that the La Plata basin is a In other words it is suggested that the La Plata basin is a suitable “test bed” for the assessment of model suitable “test bed” for the assessment of model performance and the development of  specific tools for performance and the development of  specific tools for high impact weather forecasting, among othershigh impact weather forecasting, among others

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

The ultimate objective would be to develop and The ultimate objective would be to develop and test TIGGE-based products that meet the needs test TIGGE-based products that meet the needs and requirements of the operational weather and requirements of the operational weather forecast community, in order to evaluate the forecast community, in order to evaluate the benefit of those products in an operational benefit of those products in an operational context context

GIFS-FDP OBJECTIVEGIFS-FDP OBJECTIVE

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

Potential benefits derived from implementation of Potential benefits derived from implementation of GIFS-FDP at LPB:GIFS-FDP at LPB: • Assessment of the TIGGE models performance Assessment of the TIGGE models performance

in a key region of the planetin a key region of the planet• Building of intellectual capacity (i.e., enhancing Building of intellectual capacity (i.e., enhancing

capacity building at several levels, including capacity building at several levels, including scientific, operational and decision making)scientific, operational and decision making)

• Exchange of expertise among the nations Exchange of expertise among the nations involvedinvolved

GIFS-FDP BENEFITSGIFS-FDP BENEFITS

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

• Focus on heavy rainfall prediction, since advantages of ensemble forecasting applied to severe weather have to be fully demonstrated

• Focus on producing forecast tools tailored to users needs• Synchronize this FDP agenda with the agenda of the field

experiment CHUVA• Science: use this unique opportunity to calibrate/verify

ensembles with more observations than usually available and possibly address questions like: 

• which is the impact of extra data on forecast quality? (this includes data assimilation community)

• How can we use model error statistics to understand which processes are strongly affecting forecast quality so that key problems can be isolated ad models improved?

GIFS-FDP CENTRAL IDEASGIFS-FDP CENTRAL IDEAS

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

Importance of looking closer into two different but related scales: • WEATHER: Early detection of events of extreme

precipitation in short-term forecast horizon (1-5 days)

• EXTENDED WEATHER (intraseasonal): Estimation of changing probabilities in the near future

GIFS-FDP CENTRAL IDEASGIFS-FDP CENTRAL IDEAS

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

• Capacity building: organize short-intensive courses, before the “forecast demonstration” phase, with specific focus on:o statistical techniques for optimal use of ensemble

forecasting - probabilistic forecastso ensemble verification/calibration

• Promote liaisons with decision making sector (energy, early warning, water management, …)

• Develop bias corrected TIGGE model outputs• Statistically downscaling of TIGGE model outputs to

main cities in LPB

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland

GIFS-FDP ACTIONSGIFS-FDP ACTIONS