A Look at Portland and Salem’s Economy · 2021. 1. 4. · Unemp. Rate 4.7% 3.9% Unemployed 59,800...

A Look at Portland and Salem’s Economy

April 26, 2018

Employment and Wages (U.S. Summary)• Employment continued to grow at a modest pace

• Persistent labor market tightness and brisk demand for qualified workers

– Increased activity at staffing placement services

• Worker shortages across most sectors, especially construction, information technology, and manufacturing

• Wage growth picked up to a modest pace

• Employers raising wages and expanding benefit packages in response to tight labor market conditions.

Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 1

Federal Reserve Bank: The Beige Book, March 7, 2018

Employment and Wages (Western U.S.)

• Labor market conditions remained tight and upward wage pressures increased

• Labor shortages in various sectors, especially for high-skilled positions.

• Difficulty finding workers experienced in information technology, accounting, and finance

• Banking sector reported moderate wage growth for entry-level positions to increase retention

• Health insurance sector increasing their use of offshore labor and automation in response to tight labor market conditions.

• Minimum wage laws continued to put upward pressure on labor costs

Support Business ∙ Promote Employment

Federal Reserve Bank: The Beige Book, March 7, 20182

What are some of the results of the

tight labor market?

• Our economy hasn’t experienced this level of competition for workers since the 1990s and early 2000s.

• Increased opportunities for workers. Job seekers with little work experience, limited skills, or that may have been previously discriminated against (ex-felons and current inmates, people with disabilities).

• Employers become more flexible for applicants lacking experience. Increased importance of OJT. (On the job training)

• Job growth in recent years has caused employment to grow fastest among those with less formal education.

• Wage growth has occurred, but not very strong. Could that change?


Portland Metro Area

Another Solid Year for the Portland Metro Area

2016 2017

Unemp. Rate4.7% 3.9%

Unemployed 59,800 51,300

Jobs 1,145,100 1,172,900

Labor Force 1,275,700 1,310,400

Hourly Earnings $26.96 $27.87

6

Full Employment(or close)

Full Employment

Low unemployment (3%)8

Unemployment

Definition of unemployed

To be counted as unemployed (in the regularly used definition), an individual must be age 16 or older, not on active duty in the military, not in an institution, and:

– Not employed

– Available for work

– Making specific efforts to find employment within the last four weeks.

Note: whether or not an individual has applied for, is receiving, or has ever received unemployment insurance benefits is not a factor in the statistical definition of the unemployed.

10 10

Portland’s jobless rate hit a new low in 2017

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2,018

11.3% in summer of 2009

Portland Metro

United States

Source: Oregon Employment Department , U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

3.5% inspring of 2017

11

Unemployment in Portland (2016)

12

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

White Asian AfricanAmerican

AmericanIndian

Hispanic 16-19 20-24

By Race and Ethnicity By Age

New to the workforce: 42%

Lost job: 42%

Left job: 15%

13

Why are Oregonians Unemployed?

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Oregon Unemployment by Reason [Trend]

Entrants

Job Losers

Job Leavers

Source: Oregon Employment Department, CPS

13

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

24.0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Oregon's U-6(Bar Represent NBER Recessions)

Source: Oregon Employment Department and National Bureau of Economic Research

14

Ancient History

900,000

950,000

1,000,000

1,050,000

1,100,000

1,150,000

1,200,000

1,250,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Employment in Portland Metro

82,000 jobs lost(-7.8%)

Fully recovered by October 2013

February 2018:133,500 above pre-recession

16

2014 and 2015 were very good years…

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Portland Metro- Annual Job Growth

1,600

3,000

2,600

2,0001,800

17

Broad-Based Growth

18

Something Happened on the Way to 2017

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Portland Metro- Annual Job Growth

1,600

2,300

2,8003,000

2,600

2,000

1,8002,200

19

A Broad-based Slowdown

Education& Health

Finance AllIndustries

Government

Construction

Trade, trans.,

util.

Information

Prof. & business

svcs.

Leisure &hospitality

Manufacturing

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Portland's Industry Growth, 2017 vs. 2016

2016 2017Growth across all industries:

2016: 3.3%2017: 1.9%

Growth across all industries:2016: 3.3%2017: 1.9%



20

Cranes by US City

Seattle : 45

LA : 36

Denver : 36

Chicago : 36

Portland : 32

San Fran : 26

DC : 27

NY : 18

21

Income

Wasn’t a Low-Wage Recovery…

23

… Isn’t a Low-Wage Expansion

24

Portland incomes are nearly 9% higher than before the Great Recession. The typical metro has yet to recover.

Portland has jumped from 32nd highest to 19th highest among the 100 largest metro areas (2007, 2016).

26

Median Household Income- Portland Metro

28

Median Household Income

US Census, ACS Table S1903

Hispanic

Black

White

28

$21,972

$22,423

$23,050

$23,499

$23,793

$24,264

$24,590

$24,628

$25,892

$26,883

$31,618

$32,472

$33,014

$34,259

$36,004

Josephine

Umatilla

Linn

Klamath

Douglas

Marion

Jackson

Polk

Lane

Yamhill

Benton

Deschutes

Multnomah

Washington

Clackamas

2015 Per Capita

Income

By Oregon County

89% of Oregonians live

in one of the 15 largest

counties.

Multnomah is the 3rd

wealthiest of the large

counties.

2015 Per Capita Income

By Oregon County

$21,972

$22,423

$23,050

$23,083

$23,499

$23,793

$24,264

$24,590

$24,628

$25,892

$26,883

$31,618

$32,472

$34,259

$36,004

$38,735

Josephine

Umatilla

Linn

Multnomah - East

Klamath

Douglas

Marion

Jackson

Polk

Lane

Yamhill

Benton

Deschutes

Washington

Clackamas

Multnomah - West

Divide Multnomah County between

“East” and “West” along 82nd Avenue.

“West Multnomah” would be the

wealthiest Oregon county with an

average income 68% higher than “East

County”. If it were a US state, it would be

the 2nd wealthiest state.

“East Multnomah” would be among the

poorer counties, but with a population

greater than Linn, Umatilla and

Josephine combined. If it were a US

state, it would be the 49th wealthiest,

between West Virginia and Mississippi.

Population

Net Migration is Back

Who Moves to Portland?

Outlook• More moderate, sustainable growth

– Closer to 2% (statewide)

• Will outpace the average state

• Low probability of recession in the near term


Salem Metro Area

Unemployment rates are near historic lows in

Salem and nationally.


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

US

Oregon

Salem MSA

Salem’s employment is nearly 8% or 12,000 jobs

above its pre-recession peak in 2008.


125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17

Salem MSA Total Nonfarm Employment (Seasonally Adjusted) 2007-Present

However, those employment gains have varied

significantly by industry.


-1,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Mining, logging, and construction

Manufacturing

Trade, transportation, and utilities

Information

Financial activities

Professional and business services

Education and health services

Leisure and hospitality

Other services

Government

Salem MSA Employment: Change from 2008 to 2017

Salem’s construction employment is back up to its level prior to the recession.


2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Salem MSA Construction Employment: 2001-2017

Marion County’s building permits have seen a

steady rise in recent years.


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Marion County Total Building Permits

Much of the increase in Polk County has been due

to growth in West Salem.


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Polk County Total Building Permits

Similar to other areas, the inventory of houses for sale in the Mid-Valley is very limited.


-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Salem Metro Area: Housing Inventory

Salem’s average rent has shot up above the

national average in recent years.


$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

No

v-1

0

Feb

-11

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Feb

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Average Monthly Rent

United States

Salem, OR

Source: Zillow

Salem’s population has a larger share of young residents compared to the state.


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65 65+

PE

RC

EN

T O

F TO

TAL

PO

PU

LAT

ION

Age Distribution 2016

OREGON

Salem MSA

Salem has been Oregon’s 3rd fastest growing MSA

since 2000, behind Bend and Portland.


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro

Eugene-Springfield

Medford

Salem

Corvallis

Bend-Redmond

Percent Population Growth 2000-2016

Population Growth From 2000 to 2016

Central Oregon and Portland are

expected to grow the fastest…

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Oregon

Portland Tri-County

Columbia Gorge

Central Oregon

South Central

Douglas

South Coast

Northeast

Southeast

Columbia Basin

Rogue Valley

Northwest

Lane

Mid-Valley

Total employment Job Growth 2014-2024

Patrick O’Connor, Regional EconomistOregon Employment [email protected]

(503) 400-4374

Amy Vander Vliet, Regional EconomistOregon Employment [email protected]

(971) 804-2099

To find this presentation online, go towww.QualityInfo.org

and use the search box to look up our names

Join the conversation:OregonEmployment.blogspot.com

Twitter @OrEmployment

A Look at Portland and Salem’s Economy · 2021. 1. 4. · Unemp. Rate 4.7% 3.9% Unemployed 59,800...

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Transcript of A Look at Portland and Salem’s Economy · 2021. 1. 4. · Unemp. Rate 4.7% 3.9% Unemployed 59,800...