A green revolution for Mozambique, march 5, 2015

[email protected] Tel. +44 (0) 207 594 9337 Twitter:@Ag4Impact Facebook: One Billion Hungry

Sir Gordon Conway Professor of International Development,

Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College

A Green Revolu,on for Mozambique? Maputo, Mozambique March 6th, 2015

The Global Crises

Financial

Food security

Water

Civil Strife

Climate Change

Energy Supply

Ecosystem Functions

‘A Perfect Storm’

The Global Crises

Imperial College, London

We have to Intensify


Survival line

Months

Pote

ntia

l har

vest

(ton

s/ha

)

1

2

3

2 3 1 4

Weeds Pests

Drought

An Insecure Farm


Survival line

Months

Poten,

al harvest (ton

s/ha

)

1

2

3

2 3 1 4

Weeds Pests & diseases

Drought Soil Fer)lity

>2 t/ha

Resilient Crops

A Secure Farm


The Key Ingredients of a Mozambique Green Revolu,on

•  And from Value Chains to Local, Na,onal, Regional and Interna,onal Markets

•  Linked via Warehouses to Value Chains and Food Processors •  BEGIN WITH •  Farmers with rights to land and belonging to Farmer Associa,ons

•  With easy access to seeds, fer,lisers, credit through Agrodealers

•  Provided by local seed and fer,lizer blending companies and local banks

•  PLUS •  Investments both technological and financial •  Poli,cal Leadership and appropriate Enabling Environments

Sustainably Intensifying the links between farmers

Farmer Associations Cooperatives Cereal Banks Contract Farms Outgrowers

Farmer Associa,ons


Input Markets Input Markets


Seed companies


Warehouse Uganda


Warehouse Mozambique


Maize Cob Sheller

Youthful entrepreneurs Uganda


URBAN LIVELIHOODS

RURAL DEVELOPMENT

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

NATIONAL MARKETS

ASSUMED RISK NUTRITION

WASTE

ADDED VALUE

RURAL LIVELIHOODS

REGIONAL MARKETS

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

FOOD PRODUCTION

VALU

E CH

AINS

LAND TENURE

BUILD RESILIENCE


Ethiopian Commodity Exchange


¡ There is not much more new arable

land available and water is scarce

¡ We have to intensify ¡ More with Less ¡ Greater productivity but minimised

environmental footprint

We have to Intensify


But it has to be sustainable

•  With efficient and prudent use of inputs •  Pesticides, herbicides, fertilisers

•  Minimising emissions of Greenhouse Gases •  Methane, nitrous oxide, CO2

•  While increasing natural capital and environmental services •  Soil moisture, natural enemies of pests

•  Strengthening Resilience •  Reducing environmental impact


We need Precise Technologies

Microdosing in Niger


Microdosing Water

Drip Irriga,on


Targeted Fer,lisers Ethiopia


Targeted Fer,lisers Mozambique


Blended N, P, K Zn, Mo, Bo, S Plus Lime 4-‐6 tons / ha

Mul,ple Approaches

•  Ecology

•  Gene,cs

•  Socio-‐economics

•  plus Integrated Imperial College, London

•  Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices

•  e.g. – Agroforestry – Integrated Pest

Management – Organic farming In

Sustainable Ecological

Intensifica,on


Intercropping maize and cowpea

Rotate with Legumes


Sustainable Genetic Intensification

•  Plants more nutritious –  carbohydrate and protein – micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc)

•  Plants more resilient to –  pests and diseases –  climate change

•  Plants more efficient at –  converting sunlight to food –  taking up nitrogen from

the atmosphere –  using water

Modern Plant Breeding

Sustainable Gene,c Intensifica,on


Orange Fleshed Sweet Potatoes


Sustainably Intensifying the links between farmers and markets

Kenya Sussex

Sustainable Socio-‐economic Intensifica,on

Tanzania Imperial College, London

•  Integrated Pest Management (IPM)

•  Integrated Soil Management (ISM)

Integrated Approaches


Africa’s Soils are Degrading Rapidly

For SSA land degrada,on hotspots affect 26% of the land area The economic loss is about $68 billion a year affec,ng 180 million people Imperial College,

London

Healthy Soils

A Healthy Soil is strong in Structure With an op,mal mix of large and small par,cle sizes Providing good permeability and water holding capacity. It is highly fer,le with rich humus and sufficient nutrients for high yields It is also rich in soil biota and contains no pollutants.

REPAIR, RESTORE, ENHANCE AND CARE Imperial College, London

Soil Pit Chimoio, Mozambique


Maize plus mulch only Mozambique


Combining Conserva,on Agriculture with Microdosing

Microdosing

Conserva,on Agriculture


Emissions con,nue to rise over next century, leading to about 40C above preindustrial

IPPC, 2014. Summary for Policy Makers

If Greenhouse Gas Emissions remain High


More than 5% reduction in length of

growing period

Average Annual Max Temp > 300C

Source: Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics

Climate Smart Soil

CLIMATE SMART SOIL HELPS AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS BECOME BETTER ADAPTED AND RESILIENT TO THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, WHILE MINIMISING THE

EMISSIONS OF GHGS AND RESTORING THE LOST CARBON IN THE SOIL


Adapta,on

•  Reducing the impact of high temperatures – Eg by Mulching

•  Conserving moisture – Eg Terracing

•  Drought Tolerant Varie,es – Eg Maize


Increasingly frequent and severe droughts, floods, and storms Fer,le lowlands good crops but can be destroyed during flood Highlands good crops of maize and cassava during flood years, but less produc,ve otherwise

hOp://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/landscape/projects/adap)v... Eduardo Mondlane

Resilience in Nwadjahane, Mozambique


Mi,ga,on


Carbon Sequestra,on

•  Key is Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) •  SOC lost due to agricultural prac,ces •  Can be put back – Conserva,on farming – Agroforestry


Risk and The Dynamics of Resilience

The Dynamics of Resilience


Farmer Innova,on in the Sunderbans India

How do we build Resilient Livelihoods?


Poli,cal Leadership


President John Kufuor, Ghana

President Filipe Nyusi, Mozambique

Rural Economy

Farm Household in a Farmer Association

Seed Co

Agro dealer

Fertiliser Co

Banks for microcredit

Local trader

Connectivity

Regional trade

National trade

Model of Alliance for a Green Revolu,on for Africa (AGRA)

An Enabling Environment

It is about People

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A green revolution for Mozambique, march 5, 2015

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