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A Global Challenge

Antonio NavarraINGV

Centro EuroMediterraneoper i cambiamenti climatici

Atmosphere

Oceans

The Climate System

Biosphere

Soil MoistureRun-off

PrecipitationEvaporation

Sea Ice

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A scientific consideration of climate (I)

Crucial experiments like the famous experiment of Michelson e Morley are not possible in climate science

How is it possible a scientific investigation of climate ?

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A scientific consideration of climate (II)

We can male experiments if we represent the climate system via a set of mathematical relations: the equation of climate.

We can then treat very complex mathematical equations, paying the price of a enormous number of elementary operations.

The equation of climate are very difficult, but they can be solved by numerical methods.

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The next generation of numerical models will be like new, more powerful, telescopes or particle accelerators and they will allow us to look further into the working of the Earth climate more accurately, extensively and reliably.

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Grids for Earth

Sort of crowded at the pole

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T42 IPCC standard resolution (~ 300Km)

T106 INGV-IPCC run resolution (~ 120Km)

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T106 INGV-IPCC run resolution (~ 120Km)

Next INGV-CMCC model resolution (~ 60Km)

Scenarios CO2

CH4

N2O

(2061-2090 minus 1961-1990)

Surface Temperature Differences JAS

(2061-2090 minus 1961-1990)

Precipitation Differences JAS

Projected sea level change is not globally uniform

Sea level change due to ocean density and circulation change during 21st century (2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999) under A1B, average of 16 AOGCMs, shown relative to global mean. Spatial variation is about 25% of global mean.

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Numerical Simulations

Agricultural Impacts:Forests

Agricultural Impacts:Crops

Impacts:Energy and Economy

Impacts:Health

Impacts:Mediterranean Sea

Numerical Methods Software Development

Impacts:The Coastal Zone

The Structure of the CMCC

Climate Research

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CIRCEClimate Change and Impact ResearCh:

the Mediterranean Environment

An FP6 Project of the European Union

Chair: Antonio Navarra and Laurence Tubiana

The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle.

The economic and social consequences of climate change shall be evaluated by analyzing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economicsystem. CIRCE will moreover investigate the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and theirimpacts will be assessed.

The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean area.

CIRCE Strategy

Climate Dynamics

Impacts

SocialDynamics Case

Studies

Policy

What can we do ?

Mitigation: remove the causes of climate change,

i.e. emissions

Adaptation: prepare for the coming climate change

Mitigazione e Adattamento,Entrambi necessari,Entrambi limitati

Mucche olandesi, dopo l’adattamento

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Elements for Post-Kyoto RegimeEffective – Capable of realizing significant

emission reduction

Empowering – Allowing emerging countries to continue their development path

Fair – Recognizing the historical responsibility of mature economies

Shared – A large societal consensus is needed to implement effectively the policies

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Coalition Building

General Social Survey USA (I)

• 86% - Satisfied of their job

• 76% - Satisfied of their income

• 62% - Expect their position to improve within the next three years

• 65% - Over all satisfied of their lives

General Social Survey USA (II)

• 25% - Think the country is not “on the right track”

• 80% - Think the Congress has accomplished nothing

• 60% - Expect next generation will be worst off

”Happiness Gap”

US citizens ( probably typical of other countries) are happy with their lives, but they feel the threat of outside forces beyond their control (climate change, terrorism, credit crisis) and they are doubt of the government capability to handle them effectively

There is a private-public happiness gap

Policy ?

In this situation the demand on policymakers is to devise a policy to tackle with determination these large problems, but without touching the sphere of private satisfaction of the individual.

Is it possible to define a policy addressing these demands ?

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Optimists

But Concerned