A GIS Analysis of the Mexican Drug War

Will Gilrain

Background

Drug war started in 2006 when Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared war on the drug cartels

Between December 2006 and January 2011 at least 30,196 people were killed as a result of the drug war› 12,456 died between January and

November of 2010

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Reasons for participating Sometimes the only

source of income for people, especially in rural areas

Many alluring factors to people with little to no money and very little education

Income provided by growing marijuana and poppies is much higher than other crops or sources of income

The smugglers pay the peasants in illegal drug production much better than legitimate agriculture

Cartels pay Urban youth 10-12 thousand pesos per month and train them in the use of violence to protect their business

Lack of education

The people employed by the drug industry include chemists, lawyers, managers of laboratories, merchants, and transporters

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Sabet, K., and Rios, V. (2008). Evaluating the Economic Impact of Drug Traffic in Mexico. Harvard University, Department of Government.

Benefits Rural areas A few industries benefit from the drug production

and violence› Construction› Vehicle armoring

Cartel leaders enjoy building churches and extravagant mansions› Has generated economic benefits for some local construction

businesses and suppliers of construction materials Armored car industry has seen an increase since the

start of the drug war› $80,000 to $100,000› Includes bulletproof glass, armor plates, tires that still

operate when flat, and James Bond-style gadgets such as electrified door handles and push-button smokescreens

› In the past only people of very high prominence had their cars armored but now it is becoming more commonplace

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Impacts Tourist industry Taxi drivers targeted

› Serve as eyes and ears on the street for cartels› In the run-up to most major cartel battles, each side tries to

“blind” the other by reducing their surveillance assets Cruise lines removing ships from Mexican area

› Affects both Mexico and US cities Multinational corporations growing uneasy

› Not looking to open new businesses in Mexico › Looking at other places to shift operations to in case the

situation in Mexico reaches a crisis› Cost of production increasing due to increased security costs

Local businesses› Some 10,000 businesses have shut down in the past 18 months

in Juarez alone Cities losing revenue

› Monterrey (Mexico’s wealthiest city)› Juarez (Deadliest city in Mexico)

Over 3,000 drug war related deaths in 2010 People are afraid to go out at night which hurts businesses 5

Effects Violence

› In Sinaloa, around 360,000 people have left the region due to fear of violence

› Total economic losses due to violence are 12.3% of the total Mexican GDP

Corruption› Because Mexico is seen as corrupt, companies do not want to

invest in it This translates into losses that go from 0.01 to 1.66 billion

dollars annually› More criminal activity › Free press is restricted › Government productivity decreases

Drug addiction› From 1988 to 2002 cocaine consumption increased roughly

375%› Direct economic costs in terms of productivity and human

capital losses › Health care (both treatment and prevention)› Government expenditure (policies to prevent or treat drug

consumption)6

What can be done? Currently the United States and

Mexico employ a supply-side drug policy

Supplies cannot be cut off at the source and supply-side drug policy creates higher prices which leads to more crime

Policies that slash demand result in lower quantities and lower prices

With quantity and price both down, total revenue and the associated crime, should drop as well

Provide education and job opportunities as well as training for entrepreneurs for would-be drug dealers

Starting programs and support for self-employment can be a highly successful mechanism and relatively easy to do

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The GIS

Methods Techniques Data Used End Products

Methods

Conduct research and collect data› Reading articles, intelligence resources,

searching for data Create GIS using ESRI’s ArcMap

software› Performed spatial analyses such as density

analyses and interpolation› Combine multiple layers in order to

analyze the information and compare crime to different factors

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GIS Techniques

Heads up digitizing Cartographic modeling Address geocoding Data compilation and management

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Data Used

Place names for geocoding Population Cities Agricultural area 2005 Schools 2009 Electricity usage 2009 GDP 2009 Lack of vegetation 2005 Cartel influence areas Major drug trafficking routes Drug war murders by city December 2006 to

December 201013

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Spatial Analysis

Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation of murders by city› Chosen because the farther away a location is on the map

from a city, the less influence that city has on the number of murders at that location.

› Creates a raster that gives a value for the likely number of murders for every point in Mexico not just at the specific cities

Fuzzy membership› Correlation between the different attributes and the number of

deaths defined by the IDW interpolation was shown by the fuzzy membership with darker hues marking higher correlation and lighter ones marking little to no correlation

› Can be deceiving though because it just compares high values to other high values so for comparisons such as schools to murders where low schools might have higher murders the interpretation can be thrown off

End Products

GIS based on input data and methods applied

Online GIS prototype using ESRI’s ArcGIS.com

Hardcopy maps showing crime compared to different factors

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ArcGIS.com Map

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Conclusions

Overall this project has a lot of potential uses. It could be used by the general public or multiple agencies such as the Mexican or United States governments. There are still more analyses that could be performed and the online map could be added to quite a lot.

These maps show some areas that the government could focus on in the war against the drug cartels, and some factors that could influence the amount of violence that could be focused on as well. Lack of vegetation, schools, and GDP seem to be the biggest factors to focus on since they had the most correlation.

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