A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D....

A Drought History of A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Alabama, Georgia and the

Panhandle of Florida Panhandle of Florida

David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D.David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D.State Climatologist – Associate ProfessorState Climatologist – Associate ProfessorEngineering and Atmospheric SciencesEngineering and Atmospheric Sciences

The University of GeorgiaThe University of Georgia

[email protected]@engr.uga.edu706-583-0156706-583-0156

Drought in the SoutheastDrought in the Southeast


Is a normal component of the Is a normal component of the climate systemclimate system



Has occurred in the past and will in Has occurred in the past and will in the futurethe future



Has occurred in the past and will in Has occurred in the past and will in the futurethe future

No evidence of change in drought No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensityfrequency or intensity


Is a normal component of the climate Is a normal component of the climate systemsystem

Has occurred in the past and will in the Has occurred in the past and will in the futurefuture

No evidence of change in drought No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensityfrequency or intensity At least from a climatic viewAt least from a climatic view


Is a normal component of the climate systemIs a normal component of the climate system

Has occurred in the past and will in the futureHas occurred in the past and will in the future

No evidence of change in drought frequency No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensityor intensity

Societal Changes change our vulnerability to Societal Changes change our vulnerability to drought – both increasing and decreasing our drought – both increasing and decreasing our vulnerabilityvulnerability

Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast


Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II


Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II Accelerated growth since 1980Accelerated growth since 1980



1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1,000,0001960 – Metro Atlanta about 1,000,000



1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million




2008 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million2008 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million




2009 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million2009 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million 2009 – State of Georgia over 9 million2009 – State of Georgia over 9 million


Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II Accelerated growth since 1980Accelerated growth since 1980 Growth has be unevenly distributedGrowth has be unevenly distributed


Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II Accelerated growth since 1980Accelerated growth since 1980 Growth has be unevenly distributedGrowth has be unevenly distributed

Along the coast Along the coast Northern Piedmont – top of the water shedNorthern Piedmont – top of the water shed



Landscape changes Landscape changes



Landscape changes Landscape changes Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed

flow patternsflow patterns



Landscape changes Landscape changes Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed

flow patternsflow patterns Conversion of row crop fields to forest Conversion of row crop fields to forest

(started in 1920s)(started in 1920s)




Agricultural ChangesAgricultural Changes




Agricultural ChangesAgricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and Shift in amount in land in row crops and

treestrees




Agricultural ChangesAgricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and Shift in amount in land in row crops and

treestrees Increase in irrigationIncrease in irrigation




Agricultural ChangesAgricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and treesShift in amount in land in row crops and trees Increase in irrigationIncrease in irrigation Increase in urban agriculture – the “green” Increase in urban agriculture – the “green”

industryindustry

Climate Trends Across the Climate Trends Across the SoutheastSoutheast

Climate Trends Across the Climate Trends Across the SoutheastSoutheast

Since 1900 – No trend in yearly Since 1900 – No trend in yearly precipitationprecipitation

Since 1900 – No trend to slight Since 1900 – No trend to slight cooling in yearly average cooling in yearly average temperaturestemperatures

The DriversThe Drivers

Location, Location, LocationLocation, Location, Location

El NiEl Niño and La Nio and La Niñaa

Coupled Air-Sea Coupled Air-Sea InteractionsInteractionsThe El Nino/La Nina cycle is the

predominant mode of year to year climate variability.

“The CPC seasonal forecasts lack useful skill in the absence of a strong El Niño/La Niña event” - Bob Livezey

Tracking Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle

• Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean

•Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise

Winter Jet Stream Patterns Winter Jet Stream Patterns During During

El Niño and La NiñaEl Niño and La NiñaEl NiñoEl Niño La NiñaLa Niña

El Niño Effects on El Niño Effects on PrecipitationPrecipitation

La Niña Effects on La Niña Effects on PrecipitationPrecipitation

Alabama DroughtsAlabama Droughts

Georgia DroughtsGeorgia Droughts

Annual North Central Annual North Central GeorgiaGeorgia

Annual West Central Annual West Central GeorgiaGeorgia

Annual Alabama Piedmont Annual Alabama Piedmont PlateauPlateau

Annual Southwest GeorgiaAnnual Southwest Georgia

Annual Coastal Plain Annual Coastal Plain AlabamaAlabama

Annual Northwest FloridaAnnual Northwest Florida

The Seasonal The Seasonal Distribution is Distribution is IMPORTANT IMPORTANT

Typical Recharge in North Typical Recharge in North GeorgiaGeorgia

- Courtesy SERFC

Response of Hydrologic Response of Hydrologic SystemsSystems

Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, Florida

ENSO and Flow RatesENSO and Flow RatesApalachicola River at

Chattahoochee, Florida

Rainfall By SeasonsRainfall By Seasons

Winter North Central Winter North Central GeorgiaGeorgia

Spring North Central Spring North Central GeorgiaGeorgia

Summer North Central Summer North Central GeorgiaGeorgia

Fall North Central GeorgiaFall North Central Georgia

Winter West Central Winter West Central GeorgiaGeorgia

Spring West Central Spring West Central GeorgiaGeorgia

Summer West Central Summer West Central GeorgiaGeorgia

Fall West Central GeorgiaFall West Central Georgia

Winter Piedmont Plateau Winter Piedmont Plateau AlabamaAlabama

Spring Piedmont Plateau Spring Piedmont Plateau AlabamaAlabama

Summer Piedmont Plateau Summer Piedmont Plateau AlabamaAlabama

Fall Piedmont Plateau Fall Piedmont Plateau AlabamaAlabama

Winter Southwest GeorgiaWinter Southwest Georgia

Spring Southwest GeorgiaSpring Southwest Georgia

Summer Southwest GeorgiaSummer Southwest Georgia

Fall Southwest GeorgiaFall Southwest Georgia

Winter Coastal Plain Winter Coastal Plain AlabamaAlabama

Spring Coastal Plain Spring Coastal Plain AlabamaAlabama

Summer Coastal Plain Summer Coastal Plain AlabamaAlabama

Fall Coastal Plain AlabamaFall Coastal Plain Alabama

Winter Northwest FloridaWinter Northwest Florida

Spring Northwest FloridaSpring Northwest Florida

Summer Northwest FloridaSummer Northwest Florida

Fall Northwest FloridaFall Northwest Florida

Tree Ring Drought Tree Ring Drought InformationInformation

Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99)< -0.99) 1756-17601756-1760 1762-17641762-1764 1797-18021797-1802 1855-18571855-1857 1896-18991896-1899 1925-19271925-1927 1954-19561954-1956 1998-20021998-2002 2006-20092006-2009


Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99)-0.99) 1756-17601756-1760 1762-17641762-1764 1797-18021797-1802 1855-18571855-1857 1896-18991896-1899 1925-19271925-1927 1954-19561954-1956 1998-20021998-2002 2006-20092006-2009

Long-term drought about once in 40 yearsLong-term drought about once in 40 years


Long-term Droughts Long-term Droughts (2 or more years PDI (2 or more years PDI < -0.99)< -0.99)1756-17601756-1760 1762-17641762-1764 1797-18021797-18021855-18571855-1857 1896-18991896-1899 1925-19271925-19271954-19561954-1956 1998-20021998-2002 2006-20092006-2009

Adds the following yearsAdds the following years 1708-17091708-1709 1714-17151714-1715 1839-18401839-1840 1844-18451844-1845 1914-19151914-1915


Long-term Droughts Long-term Droughts (2 or more years)(2 or more years)1756-17601756-1760 1762-17641762-1764 1797-18021797-18021855-18571855-1857 1896-18991896-1899 1925-19271925-19271954-19561954-1956 1998-20021998-2002 2006-20092006-2009

Adds the following yearsAdds the following years1708-17091708-1709 1714-17151714-1715 1839-18401839-18401844-18451844-1845 1914-19151914-1915

Return interval is now once in 25 Return interval is now once in 25 yearsyears

Some Drought Some Drought Monitoring ToolsMonitoring Tools

US Drought MonitorUS Drought Monitor

Lawn and Garden IndexLawn and Garden Index

Summer Drought and Moistness Index Summer Drought and Moistness Index Alabama 900-2009Alabama 900-2009

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

15422007

9th Driest

SummarySummary

SummarySummary

Droughts are a normal component of Droughts are a normal component of the climate systemthe climate system

SummarySummary


We will have droughts in the futureWe will have droughts in the future

SummarySummary



No trend in southeastern climate No trend in southeastern climate since 1900since 1900

SummarySummary Droughts are a normal component of the Droughts are a normal component of the

climate systemclimate system


No trend in southeastern climate since No trend in southeastern climate since 19001900

More people but the same amount of More people but the same amount of waterwater

A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D....

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