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A disaster waiting to happen? Tsunamis, elderly people and rest homes in Mt Maunganui

Rachael McMillan

Research Officer,

National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis

Student dissertation

Presentation to PANZ Conference

Wellington, NZ

27-28 June 2013

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Background

• Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction 2009

• Elderly people suffer more than the general populace from natural hazard events both in the event itself and the aftermath

• More than 70% of deaths related to Hurricane Katrina were from elderly people – they made up 15% of the population

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• Is there a problem?

• Would building rest homes out of at risk areas be feasible?

Overall place vulnerability - likelihood of an event occurring, location, mitigation or reduction measures, and social conditions

Case study - Mt Maunganui and elderly people

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• Ethics approval – University of Waikato

Mixed method approach:

• Technical reports GNS, NIWA, BOPRC etc. hazard zones, risk levels

• Census data

• Ministry of Health data

• Semi-structured interviews from retirement villages, rest homes, District and Regional Councils, Civil Defence, and District Health Board

Research design

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Tsunamis – how likely?

(Berryman, 2005)

Tsunami sources

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Return period - Palaeotsunami data

Estimated

tsunami

run-up

height

< 0.5m

0.5-1 m

1-3 m

3-5 m

> 5 m

No. of

events

> 6

1

4-5

*

5-6

Summary of known past tsunami events - Bay of Plenty (historical

and sediment deposits - last 4000 years)

(Bell, et al., 2004) * these cannot yet be identified through soil deposits

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• Modified landscape

• Low lying

• Limited escape routes

• No vertical evacuation structures

Landscape

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If the big one happened!

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Bay of Plenty – Population aged 65+

(Statistics NZ, 2007), NIDEA

Medium projections

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

% o

f p

op

ula

tio

n 6

5+

Census year

Bay of Plenty

New Zealand

80,660

44,810

61,280

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Coastal communities - Age 65 +

(Statistics NZ, 2006)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Mt MaunganuiNorth

Omanu Arataki Te Maunga Pacific View Palm Beach

Age

65

+ %

of

po

pu

lati

on

Census area unit

NZ average 12.3%

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• Mobility problems and lack of physical strength

• Medical and dietary care needs are “rarely taken into account” in the aftermath of a disaster (Ngo, 2012, p. 449)

• Elderly people suffer physically, psychologically, socially and economically

Elderly and disaster

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Level of disability, by age and residential status, 2001

(Source: Ministry of Health, 2002; Cornwall and Davey, 2004)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mild Moderate Severe Mild Moderate Severe

Household population Residential care population

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f e

lde

rly

pe

op

le

65-74

75+

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Rest homes and retirement villages in Mt Maunganui

Rest homes 3 183 beds

Retirement

villages

2 307 dwelling

units

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Rest homes/Retirement villages/Elderly in the community

• Rest homes – evacuation plans (largely ineffective)

• No vertical evacuation facilities

• Loss of power

• Potential loss of staff to rescue own families

• Elderly people in rest homes are at very high risk

• Low priority for evacuation

• Elderly people of limited mobility/severe disability in the community are just as risk as those in rest homes

Evacuation issues

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Yes there is!

Is there a problem???

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Design and location strategies to reducing risk to built vulnerability

• Location – land use planning, zoning

• Design – building codes, vertical evacuation structures, requiring rest homes to be built with several levels

Taking action

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• Social spatial issues – there to fulfil a demand

• Perceptions of risk

• Risk and responsibility – individual risk vs community resilience

• Human rights

• Political challenges

• Economic practicalities

Feasibility – rest homes

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Building rest homes out of at risk zones will:

• Improve community resilience and enable faster recovery (only marginally)

• Reduce pressure on rescuers

• Face intense challenge

• Have minimal impact on the vulnerability of the wider community

Conclusion

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Policy suggestions

• Government policy – elderly people in their own homes for longer

• Elderly people policy – consider location, vulnerability and risk

• Planning for elderly people – further social vulnerability studies

• Pro-active strategies required

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“The more lead up time, the better. The risk is real.”

“We’ve got the ability to assess the risk. I think we ought to have the compassion to respond to the risk, address it and manage it.”

Final comments

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• Thank you

• Enquiries welcome

• rmcmilla@waikato.ac.nz

• www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea

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Evacuation structures

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Bay of Plenty – Age group distribution

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

65-69 years 70-74 years 75-79 years 80-84 years 85+ years

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f p

op

. age

d 6

5+

Age groups

1996

2001

2006

“SUPPOSING WE COULD MANAGE TO LOAD UP ALL 86 PEOPLE AND HEAD FOR [HIGH GROUND], THEN YOU HAVE PROBLEMS THEREAFTER; TOILETS, HOT AND COLD WATER, EVEN IF YOU DO GET TO A SAFE ZONE. WE COULD BE TAKING THEM FROM ONE DANGER TO ANOTHER.” – REST HOME MANAGER

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Fatalism

• “If it comes, I hope it is sudden and devastating and it gets rid of me” – Elderly participant

• “[They say] I can’t walk, I can’t do anything, I may as well sit here, have a glass of sherry and let it happen” – Participant

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Triage or evacuation priorities?

• “Looking at who you can save, [the authorities] will look at pre-schoolers and school age children and rest homes will probably be further down the list.”

– Professional participant

• Who gets out? - “Is your responsibility to your staff or to your residents? – It’s a hell of a question” – Participant

• “[If the tsunami was close] it would only be staff who go. Nobody else would get time to go. You couldn’t get [the elderly] to go. They wouldn’t move fast enough to get out.” – Rest Home Manager

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Perceptions of risk - feasibility

• “It didn’t occur to me when I came [into the retirement village] that [tsunamis] could be an anxiety I would have. I am conscious of the risk that I hadn’t thought of.” – Elderly Participant

• “There are always those who think it is not going to happen to me and I am probably in that category.” – Elderly Participant

• “The resident community [at the retirement village] would fiercely oppose being told where [they could or] couldn’t live because there was a slight risk that a natural disaster could impact on them more than on younger folk.” – Retirement Village Manager