Data Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics; UN DesaFig i: Pakistan’s Population: Past, Present and Projected

0

2

4

6

8

10

5 Cr

ore

6 Cr

ore

7 Cr

ore

8 Cr

ore

9 Cr

ore

10 C

rore

11 C

rore

12 C

rore

13 C

rore

14 C

rore

15 C

rore

16 C

rore

17 C

rore

18 C

rore

19 C

rore

20 C

rore

21 C

rore

Num

ber o

f Yea

rs

Population in CroresIt took 10 years for Pakistan’s population to increase from 4 Crore in 1953 to 5 Crore in 1963.

And it took 2 years for it to increase from 20 Crore in 2015 to 21 Crore in 2017.

Data Source: Pakistan Bureau of StatisticsFig ii: Time taken for the population to increase by each crore

Pakistan is world’s 6th most populous country. In 2017, the country’s population reached 207.8 million (excluding Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan), showing an increase of 75.4 million people in 19 years. This means that since 1998, the country has seen 57% increase in its population.

Fig i. shows the trend line of country’s population from 1951 till 2047. Population projections were drawn by two methodologies. The first uses UNDESA‘s high fertility variant growth rates and the second uses 2017 Census’ average population growth rate (2.4%). According to our first method, by 2047 country’s population is expected to have increased by another 137.5 million, while the latter suggests an increase of 215.5 million.

Fig ii. shows the number of years it took to add one crore (10 million) to Pakistan’s population. It helps understand how the population growth rate has changed dramatically over time. From 4 crore in 1953 to 5 crore in 1963, it took 10 years for the country’s population to increase by its first crore. While it only took 2 years for it to increase from 20 crore in 2015 to 21 crore in 2017.

POPULATIONGROWTH

Urban

36%

Rural

64%Population

207.8Million

AverageHousehold

Size

6.45 Persons

Sex Ratio

105.1Households

32.2Million

AverageDensity

261 Persons/ sq. km

6th Population & Housing Census 2017A Comprehensive Summary of Results

ANALY

SIS

2018

Punjab SpatialStrat gye

2016-2040

Authors: Dr. Nasir Javed, Maira Khan

0

50

1 00

1 50

200

250

300

350

400

1951

1955

1959

1963

1967

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

2027

2031

2035

2039

2043

2047

Popu

latio

n in

Mill

ions

1961 1972 1981 1998 2017 2037

Observed Projected

33.7 42.9

65.384.3

132.4

207.8

253

298.5

345.3

263.4

333.9

423.2

Projected Population - Method 1: UN Desa growth ratesProjected Population - Method 2: 2.4% population growth rate

0

1

2

3

4

195

0

195

3

195

6

195

9

196

2

196

5

196

8

1971

1974

1977

198

0

198

3

198

6

198

9

199

2

199

5

199

8

200

1

200

4

200

7

2010

2013

2016

More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed regionsPakistan

2.43%

3.9%

2.87%2.69%

2.4%

Av. A

nnua

l Gro

wth

Rat

e

Fig iii: Pakistan’s population growth rate in comparison with less and least developed regionsData Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics; UN Desa

Indi

a

Paki

stan

Chi

na

USA

Bang

lade

sh

020

4060

80100

120

Year

s

129

97

6057

29

Fig iv: Population Doubling Time

Data Source: Pakistan Bureauof Statistics; UN Desa

Population Growth Rate by Level of Development & Population Doubling TimeToday, Pakistan’s annual average population growth rate is 2.4%. Fig iii. visualizes how the population growth rate has changed worldwide for the various levels of development overtime, and where does Pakistan stand in their comparison. Developed countries reached highest population growth rates long ago and their population growth rates have been falling for many decades now. Less developed countries' growth rate peaked in the late

1960s and in the least developed countries the population growth rate peaked around 1990. Pakistan’s growth rate reached its pinnacle around the 1971 East Pakistan War at 3.9%, higher than that observed for any of the levels of development, and has been on a decline ever since. Over the last two decades we are seeing declining population growth rates in countries at all stages of development, including Pakistan. Pakistan’s growth rate (2.4%) is also significantly higher than that of other largely populated countries like China (0.54%), India (1.24%), USA (0.72) and Bangladesh (1.16%). Population doubling time, calculated using the ‘Rule of 70’, shows that given Pakistan’s current growth rate, it will take the country aprox. 29 years for its population to double. While the aforementioned countries will take much longer (see fig iv).

2THE URBAN UNIT1

With 110 million residents, Punjab remains Pakistan’s most populated province. Though, its share in the country’s population pie has declined from 55.6% in 1998 to 52.9% in 2017. Balochistan, KPK and ICT are the beneficiaries of this reduction in Punjab’s share. Balochistan’s share went up from 5 to 6%, KPK’s increased from 13.4 to 14.7% and ICT’s from 0.6 to 1%, while Sindh and FATA’s shares remained consistent at 23% and 2.4% respectively.

Population Growth at Provincial Level

Fig. vi shows each province’s population increase in 20 year intervals. Population added every two decades is increasing exponentially. Punjab alone observed an increase of 19 million between 1957 and 1977, 29 million between 1977 and 1997 and 38 million between 1997 and 2017.

1997-20171977-19971957-1977

Balochistan

Sindh

Punjab

KPK

GB

Jammu andKashmir

Balochistan

Sindh

Punjab

GB

Jammu andKashmir

GB

Jammu andKashmir

Balochistan

Sindh

Population Change ('000' persons)No Data<1,2501,251 - 2,5002,501 - 6,000

12,001 - 17,00017,001 - 30,00030,001 - 40,000

6,001 - 12,000

Fig vi: Population change observed by Pakistan’s provinces in 20-year intervals.Data Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

FATA

ICT

AJK

FATA

ICT

AJK

FATA

ICT

AJK

KPK FATA PUNJAB SINDH BALOCHISTAN ICT

0

200

400

600

800

1 ,000

1 ,200

1 951 1 961 1 971 1 981 1 991 2001 201 1

Popu

lati

on(1

00

Tho

usan

ds)

Years1 9981 972 201 7

Data Source: Pakistan Bureau of StatisticsFig v: Pakistan’s Population at Provincial level: Past and Present

Punjab Punjab

KPK KPK

560 KM

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

KPKFATA PunjabSindhBalochistanICT Pakistan

Fig x: Pakistan’s Sex Ratio Data Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

105

200 KM

1. Lahore 11 Million

2. Faisalabad 7.9 Million

3. Rawalpindi 5.4 Million

4. Gujranwala 5 Million

10. Sialkot 3.89 Million

5. Rahim Yar Khan 4.8 Million

7. Muzaffargarh 4.3 Million

6. Multan 4.7 Million

8. Peshawar 4.27 Million

9. Karachi West District3.9 Million Fig vii: Pakistan’s population at District

Data Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

No Data

1 - 100,000

100,001 - 250,000

250,001 - 500,000

500,001 - 750,000

750,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 - 2,500,000

2,500,001 - 5,000,000

5,000,001 - 7,500,000

7,500,001 - 10,000,000

>10,000,000

Population 2017

Population at District and Municipal Corporation Level8 out of the 10 most populated districts in the country are located in Punjab. These include Lahore, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Rahim Yar Khan, Multan, Muzaffargarh and Sialkot. Lahore, with 11.1 million residents is on top of the list. Peshawar’s population has doubled between 1998 and 2017, changing its rank from 19th in 1998 to 8th most populated district in 2017. Karachi West District stands 9th with a population of 3.9 million residents.

3 THE URBAN UNIT

Fig viii: 10 most populated Pakistani citiesData Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

Karachi is Pakistan’s largest city, followed by Lahore. Karachi alone has 14.9 million residents i.e. 31% of entire Sindh province’s population. Lahore makes up for 10% of Punjab’s population. Together, Lahore and Karachi comprise 34.4% of Pakistan’s said Urban population (75.6 million).

Population DensityPakistan’s average population density is 261 per sq. km. In past 19 years, it has increased by almost 100 per sq. km. Of the four provinces, Punjab has the highest density i.e. 536 per sq. km, followed by KPK and Sindh with average densities of 410 and 340 per sq. km respectively. Balochistan is extremely low in density, with an average number of 36 residents per sq. km. ICT, being mostly urban, has an average density of 2215 per sq. km. While FATA’s density is 184 per sq. km.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1951 1961 1972 1981 1998 2017Pakistan Punjab Sindh KPK Balochistan FATA

42persons/

sq. km

54persons/

sq. km

82persons/

sq. km

106persons/

sq. km

166persons/

sq. km

261persons/

sq. km

Dens

ity (p

erso

ns /

sq. k

m)

Fig ix: Pakistan’s population density at provincial levelData Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

MALE106.4 Million

51.23%

FEMALE101.3 Million

48.76%

TRANSGENDER10.5 Thousand

0.01%Pakistan has a sex ratio of 105. This means that there are 105 male residents in the country per 100 females. ICT has the highest sex

ratio i.e. 111 males per 100 females.

Gender Distribution

Kara

chi C

ity

Laho

re Ci

ty

Faisa

labad

Rawa

lpind

i

Gujra

nwala

Pesh

awar

Popu

lation

in M

illion

s

Mult

an

Hyde

raba

d

Islam

abad

Quet

ta

5

10

15

0

1. Lahore 1758 thousand

2. Faisalabad 1225 thousand

3. Rawalpindi889 thousand

5. Gujranwala 757 thousand

10. Bahawalpur 585 thousand

6. Rahim Yar Khan 702 thousand

668 thousand

4. Multan 761 thousand

9. Sargodha

600 thousand

8. Karachi West District

634 thousand Fig xiii: Number of households at district level.Data Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

200 KM

# of Households 2017No Data

1 - 100,000

100,001 - 200,000

200,001 - 400,000

400,001 - 800,000

800,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 - 1,200,000

1,200,001 - 1,400,000

1,400,001 - 1,600,000

>1,600,000

2424

Average Household SizePakistan’s average household size has declined from 6.82 persons in 1998 to 6.45 persons in 2017. With an average number of 9 persons in each household, FATA has the largest household size, followed by KPK (7.9), Balochistan (7), Punjab (6.4), ICT (6) and Sindh(5.6). Besides Balochistan, the average household size of all the regions has reduced since 1998.

Number of Households by District9 out of 10 districts with the highest number of households are located in Punjab. Lahore is at the top of the list with 1,758 thousand households, followed by Faisalabad, Rawalpindi, Multan, Gujranwala, RYK, Muzaffargarh, Sargodha and Bahawalpur districts. Karachi West District in Sindh ranks 8th with 634 thousand households.

KPKFATA

Punjab

Sindh

Balochistan

ICT

Pakistan

Fig xii: Average household size at provincial levelData Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

5

6

7

8

9

1981 19912001

2011

Num

bers

19982017

Balochistan

Sindh

Punjab

KPK

FATAICT

AJK

GB

Jammu and Kashmir

97%

3%

63%37%

48%52%

72%

28%

81%

19%

49%51%

Urban Population 2017

141,898 - 1,014,825

1,014,826 - 3,400,876

3,400,877 - 5,729,634

5,729,635 - 40,387,298

No Data Available

Fig xi: Urban vs. Rural population at provincial levelData Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

503 - Shaheen Complex, Edgerton Road, LahorePh: 042 - 99205316 - 22 Fax: 042 - 99205323E-mail: uspmu@punjab.gov.pk www.irispunjab.gov.pk

www.urbanunit.gov.pk

Urban vs Rural PopulationAccording to the 2017 Census results, 36% of the country’s population lives in urban areas. Punjab is the most urbanized province with 63% of its residents settled in urban areas. It is worth mentioning here that the 2017 census only considers the people residing in metropolitan and municipal corporations, municipal committees or cantonments as urban. All the residual are rural. Since this criteria assumes that people living in contiguous areas outside of these administrative boundaries are rural, the country’s urban population is largely under-estimated.

URBAN 12,192,314

36%

RURAL 20,012,797

64% 225 KM