A competitive South African Wheat Industry Is Paramount To Food Security

A Competitive South African Wheat Industry Is

Paramount To Food Security

Cobus le Roux

ARC-Field Crops Division

Curiosity Rover makes near-perfect landing on Mars

Undernourishment

Source: FAO

World estimates: Total grains

Source: International Grain Council

09/10

10/11

11/12 12/13

est

forecast

23.08 28.09

TOTAL GRAINS*

Production 1799 1751 1850 1779 1767

Trade 240 243 268 249 249

Consumption 1769 1785 1845 1809 1806

Carryover stocks 401 367 372 338 332

year/year change 30 -34 5 -40

Major exporters a) 173 140 129 103 99

a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States

* Wheat and coarse grains

09/10

10/11

11/12 12/13

est

forecast

23.08 28.09

WHEAT

Production 679 653 696 662 657

Trade 128 126 145 133 132

Consumption 653 659 691 679 679

Carryover stocks 199 193 197 180 175

year/year change 26 -6 4 -22

Major exporters a) 78 72 70 54 51

a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States

World estimates: Wheat

Source: International Grain Council

Per capita food production, calories (kcal/day, 2009)

Today the world’s population is growing at 200 people per minute and is forecasted to reach 12 billion by 2050. The daunting task for us as agricultural sector is to produce double the amount of food in the next 50 years, than what we produced since the beginning of agriculture 10 000 years ago.

As for the future, our task is clear ………

Access: South African, supply and demand

Source: Landbouweekblad

Production, consumption, trade, price of South African wheat

Production Consumption Imports

Th

ou

san

d t

on

s

Affordability: Poorest 30% of South African household’s budget spent on food and non-alcoholic beverages

• 2005/2006 14,5%

• 2008/2009 19,3%

• 2011/2012 36,4%

Affordability: SA consumers are paying more for food …

Source: M & G

Affordability: Bread and cereals are increasing the most

Source: M & G

Factors affecting competitiveness of the South African Wheat Industry:

Wheat/Maize price ratio

Ra

nd

/to

n

Factors affecting competitiveness of the South African Wheat Industry:

Wheat/Maize price ratio

Wheat Soybeans Maize

Factors affecting competitiveness of South African Wheat Industry

Wheat Price fluctuations

High production costs

Source: BFAP, 2011 and www.agribenchmark.org


Comparison of international wheat production cost in 2011

Argentina USA Germany Australia Canada RSA Dryland *

RSA Irrigation

Yield (t/ha) 4.17 3.7 7.62 2.54 3.14 2.3 8.37 Total Cost ($/ha) 627 638 1734 517 573 799 1621 Cost per ton ($) 150 172 227 204 182 347 194 Government Supp ($/ton)

0 7.37 56.40 2.86 0 0 0

http://www.agribenchmark.org/

Challenging production environment

• Winter rainfall area: Stable

• Irrigation summer rainfall area: Stable

• Dryland summer rainfall area: Unstable and changing


Challenging environment: USA

Source: Time Magazine


Profile: South African Wheat Industry

• Commercial 99%

• Small-Holder <1%

• Dryland Production 56%

• Irrigation Production 44%

• Past 10 years: Production <19%

Consumption >17%

• Imports 37%

Profile: Small-holder wheat farmer

• 8% own land

• 42% farm on commercial land

• 45% members of farmer organisations

• 61% of farms are smaller than 10 ha

• 77% of farmers have (on average) 9 years experience

Access to sound scientific data on production practices, cultivar performance, etc.

Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/ food security

Recommended cultivars:

• 20 Irrigation

• 11 Spring Dryland

• 16 Intermediate Dryland

Access to long-term Cultivar Performance Data


Average yield (ton/ha) of entries for the Swartland area during the full or partial period from 2008 - 2011

Cultivar 2011 R 2010 R 2009 R 2008 R 4 year average

R 3 year average

R 2 year average

R 2008 - 2011 2009 - 2011 2010 - 2011

Baviaans 3.54 9 3.07 8 3.62 11 4.27 6 3.62 6 3.41 9 3.30 7

Duzi 3.87 10

Kariega 3.48 10 3.08 6 3.66 10 4.21 7 3.61 7 3.41 8 3.28 10

Kwartel 3.56 8

PAN 3408 3.86 1 3.26 2 4.00 4 4. 42 3 3.89 1 3.71 1 3.56 1

PAN 3434 3.40 12 3.18 4 3.85 7 4.34 5 3.69 5 3.48 7 3.29 9

PAN 3471 3.78 3 3.08 6 3.93 6 3.60 5 3.43 3

PAN 3492 3.76 11

Ratel 3.77 4

SST 015 3.79 2 3.04 10 4.10 3 4.35 4 3.82 4 3.64 3 3.42 4

SST 027 3.58 7 3.06 9 4.11 2 4.60 1 3.84 3 3.58 6 3.32 6

SST 047 3.37 14 2.97 11 3.85 8 3.40 10 3.17 11

SST 056 3.60 5 3.17 5 4.23 1 3.67 2 3.38 5

SST 087 3.39 13 3.20 3 3.30 8

SST 096 3.45 11

SST 57 4.00 9

SST 88 3.58 6 3.29 1 3.94 5 4.57 2 3.84 2 3.60 4 3.43 2

Tankwa 3.33 15 2.91 12 3.81 9 4.08 8 3.53 8 3.35 11 3.12 12

Average 3.56 3.11 3.92 4.22 3.73 3.53 3.33

LSD t (0,05) 0.16 0. 17 0.18 0.08 0.09 0.11

Close the gap between on-farm yields and genetic potential of cultivars

Region Genetic Potential

(t/ha)

Real (t/ha)

Swartland 3,5 2,36

Northern Cape 8,46 6,9

Free State 2,47 1.68

Mpumalanga 6,31 5,6


• 1966 – 1979: 3,6% productivity growth per annum

High yielding semi-dwarf cultivars, improved cropping

practices, favorable policies and financial support

• 1984 – 1994: 2,8% productivity growth/annum

• 1995 – 2005: 1,1% productivity growth/annum

Green Revolution

Increase wheat productivity to 1%/year


Source: CIMMYT

Increase wheat productivity


Wheat yield and quality comparisons between Western Cape and Western Australia 2011

Region Yield (ton/ha) Hectolitre mass (kg/hl) Protein (%)

Rûens 4.31 79.60 11.98

Swartland 3.56 78.79 11.93

Mean 3.94 79.19 11.95

Region Yield (ton/ha) Hectolitre mass (kg/hl) Protein (%)

Agzone 1 3.71 73.35 11.81

Agzone 2 2.84 73.93 10.49

Agzone 3 4.63 74.82 12.26

Agzone 4 2.35 75.57 11.38

Agzone 5 2.34 72.02 12.92

Mean 3.18 73.94 11.77

013 *23 *23 *Evaluation

902729 *715 *956785 *833764 *Loaf volume

100g Baking test

2.64.0 *3.43.22.82.84.0 *Peak time

Mixogram

0.901.092.09 *1.012.09 *1.262.11 *P/L

38.026.1 *32.4 *51.230.5 *49.539.4Dough strength

Alveogram

4.01.7 *1.8 *5.52.3 *3.92.3 *Dev. time

61.155.2 *60.562.363.261.960.5Water absorption

Farinogram

-1.5-1.3-1.3-1.80.4-2.6-1.2Flour colour

75.773.1 *75.574.670.2 *74.573.9 *Flour yield

77.678.281.279.077.683.978.8Hlm

12.0010.64 *10.95 *14.2012.5412.1711.74Protein

RSAUSAGERCANBRAAUSARG

013 *23 *23 *Evaluation

902729 *715 *956785 *833764 *Loaf volume

100g Baking test

2.64.0 *3.43.22.82.84.0 *Peak time

Mixogram

0.901.092.09 *1.012.09 *1.262.11 *P/L

38.026.1 *32.4 *51.230.5 *49.539.4Dough strength

Alveogram

4.01.7 *1.8 *5.52.3 *3.92.3 *Dev. time

61.155.2 *60.562.363.261.960.5Water absorption

Farinogram

-1.5-1.3-1.3-1.80.4-2.6-1.2Flour colour

75.773.1 *75.574.670.2 *74.573.9 *Flour yield

77.678.281.279.077.683.978.8Hlm

12.0010.64 *10.95 *14.2012.5412.1711.74Protein

RSAUSAGERCANBRAAUSARG

Balanced approach towards wheat quality vs wheat productivity


Deviates from SA release criteria Comply with SA release criteria

Maintain disease and pest surveys


Distribution of Ug99-lineage Stem rust races in South Africa

2SA106 2SA107 2SA88+ SrMtlb



Maintain disease and pest surveys Biotype distribution: RWASA1-8% RWASA2-30% RWASA3-18% No RWA found-24% Not screened-19%



Biotype distribution: RWASA1-29% RWASA2-2% RWASA3-9% No RWA found-48% Not screened-9%


• There was a dramatic change to CA in the winter rainfall area

over the last decade

• In 2002 an estimated 10% of wheat area under CA systems

• In 2012 an estimated 70% under CA

• Input costs decreased drastically, especially seeding rate and

nitrogen applications

• Biggest challenge in CA systems is herbicide resistance

Extend the successes achieved with conservation agriculture to rest of South Africa, including small holder farmers


• ARC-SGI currently curates the largest and most diverse

collection of entomopathogenic nematodes in South Africa

(>135 isolates)

• Two new species in the genus Steinernema currently being

described

• Research on the use of epn’s against soil-borne pests such as

false wireworm and cutworm currently underway

Infected adult of false wireworm Gonocephalum simplex

Increased focus on the development of bio-insecticides in an endeavour to lower input costs


• Myco-insecticide against African bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (prototype product in final year of field-testing before registration)

• Myco-insecticide against oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi (vector of BYDV in wheat under irrigated conditions)

• >500 isolates of Beauveria bassiana in ARC-SGI collection; currently screening to identify most virulent strain

Infected larva Field trial 2011

Infected oat aphid

Increased focus on the development of bio-insecticides in an endeavour to lower input costs


• Higher and stable yields especially in the Highveld production areas

• Drought/heat tolerance in the marginal, low input, low decision-

making areas

• Concentrate on the different nutrient and water-use efficiencies of

cultivars and production systems. Kg grain produced/ml water

• Lower input costs

• A diversified approach towards herbicide resistance

• Re-introduce higher levels of rust resistance in commercial cultivars


Interventions needed from National Government

• Focus on small-holder productivity

• Increase and continuously align capacity building with changing

needs

• Lobby Government support in an endeavour to attain wheat

security through at least 85% local production

• Access to a viable local wheat market and industry

• Government supported seed and drought insurance schemes

• Constant access to supply, demand, market and value-chain data

Conclusion

Profitable Wheat Production System

+

Supportive Government

+

Affordable Wheat Products

Wheat Secure Africa

Emphasis on local productions

+

A competitive South African Wheat Industry Is Paramount To Food Security

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