A China Perspective · 2. China Aviation Industry Overview • China was already a key aircraft...

Private & Confidential

Presented by

Dennis Scott Ass, Chief Designer:

COMAC

(since August 2011)

[email protected] 2020-V3 All Rights Reserved 2020

A China Perspective• Domestic COVID-19 situation

• Aerospace Landscape

• Q&A

This PPT should be viewed in PRESENTATION

mode.

These views are my personal opinion

and do not reflect the position of COMAC.

mailto:[email protected]


Dennis Scott: China Perspective

1. Coronavirus Situation

• China has successfully completed the Coronavirus cycle (<5 new cases/<10 new symptomless cases per day).

• All businesses, schools, colleges, sports centres have re-opened. 3 vaccines undergoing trials.

• Currently, only Chinese nationals/Green Card holders allowed to enter China.

• Every person entering China is tested before being quarantined for 14 days. Testing widely available.



1. Coronavirus Situation

• Domestic flights now back up to 80+% of pre-virus level (trains are now essentially fully operational).

• Discussions ongoing with Dubai, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and New Zealand on how/when to re-start international flights, potentially from May 22nd (Emirates have started COVID-19 testing before check-in).

• Comprehensive financial support has been provided to Chinese airlines and business in general.

• Airline consolidation expected (Hainan Airlines + subsidiaries is a prime candidate).


4

• Drastic reduction/deferral of new aircraft orders and severe reduction in maintenance/after sales activities.• Aerospace supply chain facing a 30 to 50% reduction in order intake (short term).• Excess capacity and headcount is a global issue across the industry (but is not such a problem in China).



2. China Aviation Industry Overview

• China was already a key aircraft market before COVID-19, with 25% of Airbus and Boeing production going to Chinese airlines. Whilst the future delivery numbers will be less, the percentage will be higher, fueled by the early recovery in domestic and international travel.

• China continues to strive to reduce their dependency upon overseas companies (especially USA). “Trump factor”

• COMAC have 3 major commercial aircraft programmes: ARJ-21, C919 and CR929 (JV with UAC of Russia).

• Supply opportunities in airframe, systems and/or, GE or RR engine. Selections are ongoing and significant delays and operational difficulties are expected.

• AECC have 3 major commercial engine programmes (single Isle, wide-body and turbo-prop).

• Turbo-machinery, engine nacelle structures and systems. I.P. transfer is a challenge.

• AVIC have the AG-600 and MA700 aircraft projects (suppliers selected).

• Range of AVIC helicopter programmes (Many airframe JVs, SAFRAN engine JV with AECC).

• Antonov era, twin turboprop aircraft are being converted to RPVs for China Post, for overnight and off-shore deliveries. Many drone delivery projects ongoing.

• Wide range of Chinese military and space programmes (Not eligible).

• State owned airlines, commercial aircraft and aero-engine projects require local manufacture/assembly (JVs preferred).

• Airbus and Boeing complete A320, A330, A350 and B737 MAX aircraft in China (interiors and painting). Aircraft interiors is seen as a low I.P. risk by Airbus and Boeing, and local capability is being actively supported by COMAC for COMAC aircraft programmes.

• Airbus and Boeing need to place more supply chain value in China to meet industrial offset requirements.


Ongoing Aerospace Projects/Opportunities: Globally

200+ electric propulsion/e-VTOL aircraft projects globally: • UK government support; UKRI £125 million Future Flight Challenge

• RAeS Sponsored Design Competition,

• EASA Special Conditions issued, similar US/FAA initiatives.

• OEMs, Toyota, Hyundai, Start-ups: Alice, VoltAero, Volocopter, Lilium, Vertical Aerospace, SkyDrive (Japan)

• EHang lead the way in eVTOL in China. 36 cities actively evaluating.

EHang


Ongoing Aerospace Projects/Opportunities: Outside of China

• Numerous European “Blue Sky” or “Clean Sky” technology development projects (ongoing)

• Dassault 10X Business Jet (supplier selection completed?).• Aerion Supersonic business jet (Tier 1 supplier selection completed).• BOOM supersonic airliner (1/3 scale demonstrator under assembly).• FCAS UK/Sweden/Italy Fighter project (Concept phase).• Turkey fighter and trainer projects (Concept phase; BAe supporting).• France/Germany/Spain fighter project (Concept phase, UK excluded).• Japan and South Korea fighter projects (Concept phase, US supporting).• Numerous new military helicopter projects: USA, South Korea, Turkey, India, China

Summary• For new commercial aircraft projects, electric/hybrid, the CR929, and AECC engine

programmes offer the best short term supply opportunities.• In China, aircraft interiors offer significant opportunities for Airbus and Boeing

aircraft completion, and existing aircraft cabin retrofit/upgrades.• Airbus and Boeing are most likely to launch an A350 NEO and B787 MAX as their

next aircraft projects, Using RR Ultrafan and GE (Next Gen) engines.


Aircraft Interiors Initiative


• A typical single isle aircraft interior costs $5M, a twin Isle aircrafts interior costs $20M• Hygiene features: Air purifiers, anti-bacterial coatings on seat tables, arms, window

blinds, O/H lockers, ultraviolet cleaning of lavatories + cabins, non-touch sink taps and toilet flush and possibly doors.


What needs to be considered by overseas businesses for China based activities?

• Large state investments continue in a wide range of commercial, military and space programmes. Remarkable infrastructure investment at COMAC.

• China remains a low cost, high quality solution, however salaries and overheads are increasing. Some transitioning to other Asian countries for manufacture is ongoing.

• The Chinese government has created 3 primary development zones: Beijing, Shanghai and The Great Bay area.• Substantial funding and other practical benefits are available for the creation and operation of new, China based

activities, based on tax revenues and I.P. creation. Regions compete to attract overseas entities. However these “policies”/benefits are not “black or white”, but deliberately “grey” to provide flexibility. I have developed a good working relationship with the Shanghai and Great Bay regional governments and can facilitate if required.

• Business in China can be via Joint Ventures (JVs) or Wholly Owned Foreign Enterprises (WOFEs) [Tesla example]. Rules regarding share ownership are being relaxed, and the list of forbidden activities reduced. The company registration process is complicated, but assistance is available (I have personally registered 3 WOFEs and a Hong Kong company).

• COMAC cannot cope with tier 2 interfacing. Hence for traditional tier 2 businesses, a sub-tier, collaboration, consortium or JV approach is required. Collaboration with businesses already established in China is highly recommended.

• AECC are more open to tier 2 relationships because they are looking to access specialist expertise.• Working/cooperating/supplying to State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in China (COMAC, AVIC, AECC….), remains an

operational and financial/business case challenge. Use of local agents is rarely successful and is expensive. However, local knowledge, political connections and building robust relationships are essential.

• I.P. protection is important, and needs to be managed appropriately. China is introducing fast-track patent registration and protection measures, including infringement courts.


1. China is recovering well from the Coronavirus situation, both operationally and economically.2. The China aviation market will become even more significant in the short/medium term.3. Chinese aircraft projects are seen as stepping stones towards the end goal of self sufficiency, and are not

based on commercial principles. 4. COMAC/UAC CR929 aircraft and AECC commercial engine programmes offering supply opportunities in

2020. Non recurring costs can be paid.5. Aircraft interiors offer real opportunities.6. Substantial support “policies” are available to new entrants. WOFE rather than JVs offers the best

business model, if politically accepted.

7. Significant advantages in teaming with UK/overseas businesses that already have a well established presence in China.

8. SOE’s are struggling to adopt industry best practice, tools and methods due to the SOE operational mindset. Adaptation is required. This transition is proving a challenge, with little progress being made.

9. Companies wanting to do business with SOE’s need to invest time and resources to establish local relationships and “Guanxi”. Knowledge of the local operational landscape is essential. It not about being the cheapest solution. Local agents rarely prove successful. First hand experience is needed.

10. Your business case, operating budgets and schedules need to compensate for the working in-efficiencies, decision delays, a lack of openness and low project visibility when working with SOEs (as opposed to private enterprise).

11. Intellectual Property protection is a risk, but can be managed.12. China offers a new market opportunity for some, and the possibility to product diversify and reallocate people

and resources, for others.

China Perspective: Summary

How do we protect our Intellectual

Property in China?

12

What couple of things?

What we do and how we do it……

The Americans aren’t objecting in principle to a merger down the line, as long as we build a Chinese wall to keep a couple of things secret from the Chinese……

A China Perspective · 2. China Aviation Industry Overview • China was already a key aircraft...

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