Cargese Summer School July 2010Tim Stelzer MadGraph/MadEvent 5.
"A Brief History of Data-Drivenness", Fabian Stelzer
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Transcript of "A Brief History of Data-Drivenness", Fabian Stelzer
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A Brief History of Data-Drivenness
@fabianstelzer
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Data-Driven Decisions
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800 BC - Pythia
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Divination-Driven Decisions
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Divination < Interpretation > Decision
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Divination < Interpretation > Decisionmanual-opaque manual
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800 BCI Ching
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Divination < Interpretation > Decisionsystematic manual
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Divination < Interpretation > DecisionBogus manual
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Information < Interpretation > Decision
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800 AD - Al Kindi
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1670s - Leibniz
Instrumentum Arithmeticum
01
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Should I really do this?
PROS CONS
“Moral Algebra”
1770s - Ben Franklin
Qualitative —> Quantitative
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Information < Interpretation > Decisionsystematic-quantitativeempirical-manual
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Information < Interpretation > DecisionProbability Theory
HeuristicsDecision Frameworks
NPV…
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*Builds rationalmachines.*
*Shows humansaren’t rational*
1950s - Herbert Simon
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“Increase decision quality with data”
1970s - IBM
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1. inconclusive impact on decision quality
2. interesting impact on shrinking decisional effort
DSSs - did they work?
;-)
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“Productivity Paradox”, 1987
“You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” - Robert Solow
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DSS vs Big Data
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Big Data + Machine Learning = Decisive AI?
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AI-automation of most/many decisions to minimize ‘human
factor’?
Will Larry Page fire himself when an AIwould be the better CEO?
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59
75
Visual Excitingness
Visual Clarity
3s
Qualitatative —> Quantitative
eyequant.com@fabianstelzer
@eyequantTHX!