A Brief Demography of California

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A Brief Demography of California Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California [email protected] November 30, 2010

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A Brief Demography of California. Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California [email protected] November 30, 2010. Outline. Demographic trends Sources of data. California Has a Large and Growing Population. Source: US Census Bureau, California Department of Finance. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of A Brief Demography of California

Page 1: A Brief Demography  of California

A Brief Demography of California

Hans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of

[email protected]

November 30, 2010

Page 2: A Brief Demography  of California

Outline Demographic trends Sources of data

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California Has a Large and Growing Population

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5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Population (in thousands) 1900-2009

Source: US Census Bureau, California Department of Finance

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Comparisons of Population Change1950=100

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United States

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Comparisons of Population Change1950=100

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United States

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Comparisons of Population Change1950=100

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MexicoCaliforniaUnited States

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California Population by Race/Ethnicity1970-2009

1970 1980 1990 2000 20090%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

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100%

White Hispanic Asian/Other African American Mulitracial

42%

13%12%

37%

2%6%

Source: United States Census Bureau, decennial censuses and American Community Survey

78%

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Ethnic Majorities by Census Tract, 2000

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Percent Foreign Born 1880-200637.5

33.9

30.3

22.6 22.920.9

18.5

13.2

108.5 8.8

15.1

21.7

25.927.2

14.413.2

15.8

13.314.7

13.211.6

8.86.9

5.4 4.76.2

7.9

11.212.5

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CaliforniaUnited States

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Latin America is the Leading Source of Immigrants

Latin America 5,319,000 (55%)Asia 3,264,000 (34%)Europe 685,000 ( 7%)Canada 138,000 Africa 136,000 Oceania 68,000

Source: 2005 American Community Survey

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Immigrants Come to California from Dozens of Countries

MEXICO PHILIPPINES CHINA VIETNAM EL SALVADOR KOREA INDIA GUATEMALA TAIWAN IRAN CANADA JAPAN HONG KONG GERMANY U.KINGDOM NICARAGUA PERU LAOS RUSSIA THAILANDARMENIA UKRAINE CAMBODIA HONDURAS INDONESIACUBA FRANCE COLOMBIA ISRAEL ITALYPAKISTAN EGYPT LEBANON PORTUGAL ARGENTINABRAZIL ROMANIA IRAQ POLANDNETHERLANDSBURMA IRELAND ECUADOR CHILE SYRIANIGERIA AFGHANISTAN AUSTRALIA ETHIOPIA PANAMASOUTH AFRICA BELIZE HUNGARY TURKEY SPAINYUGOSLAVIA GREECE COSTA RICA JAMAICABANGLADESHSWEDEN BELARUS JORDAN

Source: 2005 American Community Survey

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Projections for California Diverge Widely

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Latinos will become the single largest ethnic group

Source: California Department of Finance

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Race Ethnic Composition by Age California, 2000

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California Population by Age, 2009

0-45-910-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

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1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Source: 2009 American Community Survey

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California’s Population is Unevenly Distributed

Population Density by Census Tract, 2000

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Regional Population Distribution:Inland Areas Increasing Share

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100%

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Upper Sacramento ValleySierra FoothillsMountainsSac MetroSan Joaquin ValleyInland EmpireNorth CoastSan DiegoCentral CoastSouth CoastBay Area

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Outline Demographic trends Sources of data

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Sources of demographic data Decennial censuses Population estimates and projections Survey data Administrative data and other sources

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Census basics Why take a census?

– Apportion the House of Representatives– Determine political districts– Disburse funds for programs (more than

$400 billion in federal funds every year)– Develop a portrait of our nation

The 2010 Census:– Goal: Count everyone once, only once,

and in the right place– Questionnaire: Among the shortest in

history (10 questions for the first person, 7 for all others)

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Census content:2000 Census versus 2010 Census

2000 Census 2010 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census

For each resident For each household

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Census content:2000 Census versus 2010 Census

2000 Census 2010 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census

GenderAge Number of residentsHispanic origin TenureRace Type of housing unitRelationship to householder AcerageMarital status Mortgage amountBirthplace Mortgage paymentAncestry Property taxCitizenship Other owner costsYear of immigration RentYear naturalized Utility costsLanguage spoken Government subsidyAbility to speak English House valueEducational attainment Age of houseSchool attendance Characteristics of housing unitType of school PhoneEmployment status Type of heatingOccupation VehiclesIndustryHours and weeks workedIncome by sourceMigrationDisabilityVeteran statusLocation of workplaceCommuting

For each resident For each household

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Census content:2000 Census versus 2010 Census

2000 Census 2010 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census

Gender GenderAge Age Number of residents Number of residentsHispanic origin Hispanic origin Tenure TenureRace Race Type of housing unitRelationship to householder Relationship to householder AcerageMarital status Mortgage amountBirthplace Mortgage paymentAncestry Property taxCitizenship Other owner costsYear of immigration RentYear naturalized Utility costsLanguage spoken Government subsidyAbility to speak English House valueEducational attainment Age of houseSchool attendance Characteristics of housing unitType of school PhoneEmployment status Type of heatingOccupation VehiclesIndustryHours and weeks workedIncome by sourceMigrationDisabilityVeteran statusLocation of workplaceCommuting

For each resident For each household

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Census Questions on Hispanic Origin and Race

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Census Questions on Hispanic Origin and Race

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Census Terminology: IdentityRaceRace is a self-identification data item in which respondents choose the race or races with which they most closely identify.

Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish originOrigin can be viewed as the heritage, nationality group, lineage, or country of birth of the person or the person's parents or ancestors before their arrival in the United States. People who identify their origin as Spanish, Hispanic, or Latino may be of any race.

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Who gets a box?

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Sources of demographic data Decennial censuses Population estimates and

projections Survey data Administrative data and other sources

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Population estimates and projections Estimates are historical population

figures Projections are future population figures Produced by the US Census Bureau and

the California Department of Finance Estimates are based on decennial

census counts updated with recent administrative data

Projections are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality, and migration rates

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Type of estimates data available

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Census Bureau Dept. of FinancePopulation totals State X X Counties X X Cities (total population only) X XComponents of change Births X X Deaths X X Domestic migration X X International migration X XNumber and type of housing units XPopulation characteristics Age X X Gender X X Ethnicity X X

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Recent estimates diverge

33,000

34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

38,000

39,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

DOFCensus Bureau

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Total Population (in thousands)

1.5 million

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Sources of demographic data Decennial censuses Official population estimates and

projections Survey data Administrative data and other sources

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Two primary surveys of the U.S. population

Both surveys conducted by the Census Bureau

Current Population Survey– Monthly survey– Focus on labor market

American Community Survey (ACS)

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What is the ACS? Monthly survey conducted by the Census Bureau

Annually samples about 3 million households

Items covered are similar to those of the long-form questionnaire of the 2000 decennial census

Replaces the 2010 long-form of the census

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Topics Covered Demographic characteristics Income and employment Transportation Education Origins and languages Migration Disability and caregivers Housing: Physical characteristics Housing: Financial characteristics

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Advantages of the ACS Large sample relative to the Current Population Survey

– 3 million versus 60,000 households Timely data relative to the decennial census Topical coverage nearly identical to the census long-form Single year data not reliable for small areas

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Coverage in California is relatively good for counties

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Limitations of the ACS Not a count of the population Small sample relative to the decennial census

– Census long-form went to one in six households– ACS goes to one in forty

A moving average rather than a point in time Estimates for census tracts and block groups will be based on five year periods

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Sources of demographic data Decennial censuses Official population estimates and

projections Survey data Administrative data and other

sources

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Administrative and other sources of demographic and housing data California Statewide Database (UC

Berkeley)– Voter registration– Election outcomes

California Department of Education– School demographics– School test scores

California Employment Development Department– Unemployment rates– Occupations

Private sources 40

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A Brief Demography of California

Hans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of

[email protected]

November 30, 2010

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Notes on the use of these slidesThese slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact:

Hans Johnson: 415-291-4460, [email protected]

Thank you for your interest in this work.