A Breakthrough in Trading Technology Blue Apple Trends Your Future in Control.

A Breakthrough in Trading Technology

Blue Apple Trends Your Future in Control

http://www.blueappletrends.com/

Develop a Reliable Hedging StrategyFor NH3, Potash, and UAN

Develop a Reliable Hedging StrategyFor NH3, Potash, and UAN

Partnership Initiative Objective:

http://www.blueappletrends.com/

Our Hedging Strategy is made up of Three components

Our Hedging Strategy is made up of Three components

Blue Apple TrendsA breakthrough in trading technology


1. Timing Model for each market2. Bollinger Bands for each market3. Spread Ratio for each market

Following is a presentation of a hedging strategy that incorporateseach of these components for the markets of NH3, Potash, and UAN

NH3 Hedging Strategy (NH3HS):Is Comprised of

NH3 Forecasting Model (NH3FM) andNH3 Hedging Indicators (NH3HI)

NH3 Hedging Strategy (NH3HS)Is Comprised of:

NH3 Forecasting Model (NH3FM) and NH3 Hedging Indicators (NH3HI)



NH3 Hedging Strategy

NH3 Hedging IndicatorsNH3 Hedging IndicatorsBlue Apple TrendsA breakthrough in trading technology


Bollinger Bandsand

NH3/Crude Oil Spread Ratio

Bollinger Bandsand

NH3/Crude Oil Spread Ratio

NH3 Correlation with Crude Oil 1995-2009NH3 Correlation with Crude Oil 1995-2009

Blue Apple TrendsBlue Apple Trends

Building the Hedging Model: Stage 1 Building the Hedging Model: Stage 1



Create the Forecasting Model for NH3Create the Forecasting Model for NH3

NH3 Forecasting Model (NH3FM) NH3 Forecasting Model (NH3FM)



The Forecasting model combines Four intermediate-term cycle lengths to

Determine Buy and Sell dates

The Forecasting model combines Four intermediate-term cycle lengths to

Determine Buy and Sell dates

NH3 Forecasting ModelNH3 Forecasting Model


Create the Hedging Strategy: Stage 2 Create the Hedging Strategy: Stage 2



Combine the NH3 Forecasting Model (NH3FM) with Bollinger Bands


NH3 Forecasting Model with Bollinger BandsNH3 Forecasting Model with Bollinger Bands


What do we use to Hedge NH3? What do we use to Hedge NH3?



The NH3 Hedging Strategy tells us WHEN to hedge.

But WHICH markets do we use?

A market or some combination of markets that are MOST correlated to NH3:

At this time, the market that works the best isCrude Oil

The NH3 Hedging Strategy tells us WHEN to hedge.


A market or some combination of markets that are MOST correlated to NH3:


Create the Hedging Strategy: Stage 3 Create the Hedging Strategy: Stage 3




and NH3/Crude Oil Spread Ratio


and NH3/Crude Oil Spread Ratio


NH3 Hedging Model Graph 2002-2009NH3 Hedging Model Graph 2002-2009

Best Correlation of NH3 to Other Markets Best Correlation of NH3 to Other Markets



Crude Oil 86%Diesel 82%


Correlation of NH3, UAN, Urea and Potash with Crude OilCorrelation of NH3, UAN, Urea and Potash with Crude Oil


Correlation of Nitrates and GoldCorrelation of Nitrates and Gold


Correlation between Phosphates and US Treasury BondsCorrelation between Phosphates and US Treasury Bonds


Potash Hedging Strategy (PHS)

Combines Potash Forecasting Model (PFM) andPotash Hedging Indicators (PHI)

Potash Hedging Strategy (PHS)

Combines Potash Forecasting Model (PFM) and Potash Hedging Indicators (PHI)



Potash Hedging Strategy

Potash Weekly PricesPotash Weekly Prices


Potash Hedging Indicators Potash Hedging Indicators



Bollinger Bands

Potash/Treasury Bonds Spread Ratio

Potash Futures

Bollinger Bands


Potash Futures

Create the Hedging Strategy for Potash Create the Hedging Strategy for Potash



Combine the Potash Forecasting Model (PFM) with Bollinger Bands and


Combine the Potash Forecasting Model (PFM) with Bollinger Bands and



Potash Forecasting ModelPotash Forecasting Model

What do we use to Hedge Potash? What do we use to Hedge Potash?



The Potash Hedging Strategy tells us WHEN to hedge.


A market or some combination of markets that are MOST correlated to Potash:

At this time, the market that works the best is30-Year Treasury Bonds

The Potash Hedging Strategy tells us WHEN to hedge.


A market or some combination of markets that are MOST correlated to Potash:

At this time, the market that works the best is30-Year Treasury Bonds

Best Correlation of Potash to Other Markets Best Correlation of Potash to Other Markets



Crude Oil 65%30-Year Treasury Bonds 70%

Crude Oil 65%30-Year Treasury Bonds 70%

Correlations between Potash and 30-Year US Treasury BondsCorrelations between Potash and 30-Year US Treasury Bonds



Potash Hedging StrategyPotash Hedging Strategy

UAN Hedging Strategy (UANHS)

Combines UAN Forecasting Model (UANFM) andUAN Hedging Indicators (UANHI)

UAN Hedging Strategy (UANHS)

Combines UAN Forecasting Model (UANFM) and UAN Hedging Indicators (UANHI)



UAN Hedging Strategy

UAN Hedging Indicators UAN Hedging Indicators



Bollinger Bands

UAN/Crude Oil Spread Ratio

Bollinger Bands


Create the Hedging Strategy for UAN Create the Hedging Strategy for UAN



Combine the UAN Forecasting Model (UANFM) with Bollinger Bands and


Combine the UAN Forecasting Model (UANFM) with Bollinger Bands and


UAN Forecasting Model UAN Forecasting Model


What do we use to Hedge UAN? What do we use to Hedge UAN?



The UAN Hedging Strategy tells us WHEN to hedge.


A market or some combination of markets that are MOST correlated to UAN:


The UAN Hedging Strategy tells us WHEN to hedge.


A market or some combination of markets that are MOST correlated to UAN:


Best Correlation of UAN to Other Markets Best Correlation of UAN to Other Markets





UAN Forecasting Plus Bollinger BandsUAN Forecasting Plus Bollinger Bands


UAN Hedging Strategy CompleteUAN Hedging Strategy Complete


Urea Hedging Strategy (UHS)

Combines Urea Forecasting Model (UFM) andUrea Hedging Indicators (UHI)

Urea Hedging Strategy (UHS)

Combines Urea Forecasting Model (UFM) and Urea Hedging Indicators (UHI)



Urea Hedging Strategy

Urea Hedging IndicatorsUrea Hedging Indicators



Bollinger Bands

Urea/Crude Oil Spread Ratio

Bollinger Bands


Create the Hedging Strategy for Urea Create the Hedging Strategy for Urea



Combine the Urea Forecasting Model (UFM) with Bollinger Bands and


Combine the Urea Forecasting Model (UFM) with Bollinger Bands and


What do we use to Hedge Urea? What do we use to Hedge Urea?



The Urea Hedging Strategy tells us WHEN to hedge.


A market or some combination of markets that are MOST correlated to Urea:


The Urea Hedging Strategy tells us WHEN to hedge.


A market or some combination of markets that are MOST correlated to Urea:


Best Correlation of Urea to Other Markets Best Correlation of Urea to Other Markets





Urea Forecasting ModelUrea Forecasting Model


Urea Hedging Strategy CompleteUrea Hedging Strategy Complete


Nitrates Hedging Strategy (NHS)

Combines Nitrates Forecasting Model (NFM) andNitrates Hedging Indicators (NHI)

Nitrates Hedging Strategy (NHS)

Combines Nitrates Forecasting Model (NFM) and Nitrates Hedging Indicators (NHI)



Nitrates Hedging Strategy

Nitrates Hedging Indicators Nitrates Hedging Indicators



Bollinger Bands

Nitrates/Crude Oil Spread Ratio

Bollinger Bands


Create the Hedging Strategy for Nitrates Create the Hedging Strategy for Nitrates



Combine the Nitrates Forecasting Model (NFM) with Bollinger Bands and


Combine the Nitrates Forecasting Model (NFM) with Bollinger Bands and


Nitrates 3 Forecasting Model Nitrates 3 Forecasting Model


Nitrates Forecasting Model Nitrates Forecasting Model


Nitrates Forecasting Model with Bollinger BandsNitrates Forecasting Model with Bollinger Bands

Blue Apple TrendsBlue Apple Trends Ryco

What do we use to Hedge Nitrates? What do we use to Hedge Nitrates?



The Nitrates Hedging Strategy tells us WHEN to hedge.


A market or some combination of markets that are MOST correlated to Nitrates:


The Nitrates Hedging Strategy tells us WHEN to hedge.


A market or some combination of markets that are MOST correlated to Nitrates:


Best Correlation of Nitrates to Other Markets Best Correlation of Nitrates to Other Markets





Nitrates Hedging StrategyNitrates Hedging Strategy


Phosphates Forecasting Model Phosphates Forecasting Model


Next Steps



1. Consult with your company on risk tolerance issues

1. Determine whether to hedge with futures or options

1. Establish role of Blue Apple in ongoing hedging process

1. Analyze next markets for hedging strategy

1. Create a partnership between your company and Blue Apple to increase profitability of your companies trading operations

1. Consult with your company on risk tolerance issues

1. Determine whether to hedge with futures or options

1. Establish role of Blue Apple in ongoing hedging process

1. Analyze next markets for hedging strategy

1. Create a partnership between your company and Blue Apple to increase profitability of your companies trading operations

A Breakthrough in Trading Technology Blue Apple Trends Your Future in Control.

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