A 21ST CENTURY LOOKBACK WILL SUSTAIN

A COMMUNITY’S FOCUS ON DISASTER RESILIENCE

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

IF WE FORGET OUR PAST AND OUR PRESENT

VULNERABILITIES … WE WILL BE UNPREPARED TOMORROW WHEN SIMILAR EVENTS HAPPEN AND ROB

US OF OUR FUTURE

NOTE: THIS EXAMPLE, WHICH IS FOR

EARTHQUAKES IN THE CENTRAL USA, CAN BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE

ANY PAST NOTABLE DISASTER CAUSING EVENT

FACT

FOUR LARGE EARTHQUAKES OCCURRED IN THE NEW

MADRID SEISMIC ZONE, USA

16 DECEMBER 1811 –

7 FEBRUARY 1812

UPDATE YESTERDAY’S REALITY WITH TODAY’S

KNOWLEDGEADD NEW KNOWLEDGE FROM DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, ONGOING RESEARCH AND LONG-TERM MONITORING TO EXTRAPOLATIONS OF

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED WHEN FOUR GREAT EARTHQUAKES OCCURRED IN THE

CENTRAL USA IN 1811-1812

THE GREAT EARTHQUAKES

• 1811

• 16 DECEMBER: Estimated Mw - 8.2

• 16 DECEMBER: Estimated Mw - 8.2

• 1812

• 23 JANUARY: Estimated Mw-8.1

• 7 FEBRUARY: Estimated Mw-8.3

NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE

• The New Madrid Seismic Zone covers parts of five states in the Mississippi River drainage basin: Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, and Arkansas.

• Major demographic changes have occurred in the NMSZ since 1811 – 1812.

ONE OF WORLD’S LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS

ONE OF WORLD’S LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS

INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL

INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL

EXPOSURE EXAMPLE: MEMPHIS, TN

EXPOSURE EXAMPLE: ST LOUIS, MO

EXPOSURE EXAMPLE: CHICAGO, IL

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

• A COMPREHENSIVE INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FROM GEOLOGY, GEOPHYSICS, SEISMOLOGY, ARCHITECTURE, CIVIL ENGINEERING, AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL LIKE HAZUS

• Based on Increased Scientific and Engineering Knowledge and Regional Demographic Changes, … and

• A continuing dialog sampled in a Regional Workshop, March 17-19, 2008

• Mid-America Earthquake Center, Report 08-02

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

1)Damage and loss estimates and planning assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in the NMSZ

2) Date and time:13 December 2008 at 2:00 pm CST

3) The epicenter is located approximately 33 miles North North-West of Memphis, TN.

The geography of the multi-state area will change dramatically as a consequence of liquefaction and landslides induced by earthquake ground shaking.

The most notable impacts will occur in and around the Mississippi River drainage basin where the soils are unconsolidated and susceptible to liquefaction.

Over 260,000 people are displaced.Over 60,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities) are expected.

Damage will occur over a wide area, especially in locations underlain by soft soil. Multiple fires will occur as a consequence of damage to natural gas pipelines crossing the 5-state region.

Utilitiy systems will be damaged with power, water, gas, and waste disposal outages occurring over a wide area.

Critical infrastructure (highway structures, utility systems, power plants, dams) located throughout the region will be seriously compromised

Essential infrastructure (schools, universities, hospitals) throughout the region will be seriously compromised

Transportation systems (highways, bridges, airports, river traffic) throughout the region will be severely impacted

Communication throughout the region will be seriously impacted.

Over 250,000 buildings will sustain damage, and an additional 100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong ground shaking.

Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion.

Over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving more than 120,000 people displaced and over 15,000 casualties.

Total direct economic losses in Missouri are expected to approach $40 billion.

Public Safety and Security Response (ESF 13) Evacuee Case Management (ESFs 6 & 8)

Economic and Community Recovery (ESF 15) Fire Protection (ESF 4)

Critical Resource Logistics and Distribution  (ESF 7) Restoration of Lifelines (ESFs 3 & 12)

Hazardous Materials (ESF 10) Evacuee Case Mgmt / Family Reunification )  (ESF 6 & 8)

RISK MANAGEMENT

• PREVENTION

• MITIGATION

• PREPAREDNESS

• PREDICTION AND WARNING

• INTERVENTION

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• RECOVERY

RISK MANAGEMENT

• PREVENTION

• MITIGATION

• PREPAREDNESS

• PREDICTION AND WARNING

• INTERVENTION

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

SCENARIOS WILL IMPROVE THE FOUR PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS

POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS

RESEARCHRESEARCH