9th YES CAMP Lectures
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Transcript of 9th YES CAMP Lectures
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION and
DISASTER PREPAREDNESS -
a challenge for development
Youth Environment Summit - Baguio 2 May 2011
Going to school on a bamboo raft
Wind Direction and Wind Speed
Hourly Rainfal, Average Pressure and Winds in Manila Observatory (26 Sep 2009)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
12 AM 3 AM 6 AM 9 AM 12 PM 3 PM 6 PM 9 PM
Time (pht)
Rai
n (m
m)
985
990
995
1000
1005
Pres
sure
(hPa
)
Rain
Barometric Pressure
• The highest rainfall was measured in Manila Observatory between 9 AM
and 1 PM.
• Highest rainfall of 61.4 mm/hr was measured at 10 AM
Weekly Accumulated Rain = 459.8 mm
Accumulated Rainfall in Manila Observatory (21-28 Sep 2009)
0
100
200
300
400
500
9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28
Dai
ly R
ain
(mm
)
Accumulated Rain
Daily
Normal Monthly Accumulated Rain for September
Daily Rain 26 Sep 2009 368.6 mm
• “Ondoy” brought a total of 368.8 mm of rain over Manila Observatory on September 26, 2009.
• This daily rain measured in Manila Observatory is higher than the monthly normal (330.3mm) in the Port Area.
8 meters high
5 meters high
Marcos Highway Bridge on Marikina River.
Inundation of the Provident Villagein Marikina City
Closer Look
Mangahan Floodway: How efficient is it now.
Originally designed with a width of 260 m with a high water level at 14 m at the exit section of floodway with 1 m freeboard.
During Typhoon Ondoy, about 3,000 CMS went through MangahanFloodway resulting in 2-3 meters flooding above the freeboard.
The Ondoy tragedy is due to an extreme event …
BUT…..
Magnitude and extent could have been much less
Given wider and deeper channel ways
Greater capacities of natural retention ponds
For the future, among others we should:
increase, widen and deepen our channel ways,
implement easement rules strictly,
reforest,
allocate retention ponds
Climate Change: our changing world
What’s it all about? Global Fever
(Sources: Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, Data set TaveGL2v, Jones and Moberg, 2003)
Warming trends of the last century
Prof. Dr. Anders Levermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Climate ChangeObserved facts, future projections and risks in a warming world
PFCs
HFCs
SF6
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm.
H2O
Water vapor
CO2
Carbon DioxideCH4
Methane
NO2
Nitrous Oxide
CO2
CH4
N2OHFCs
PFCs SF6
CO2CO2
CH4CO2 N2OCH4HFCs
SF6 SF6
CO2 CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2CO2 CO2
CH4
N2O
Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate!
The Greenhouse Effect
CO2
Global temp
CH4
A DangerousExperiment
Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Change Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers
• Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane & nitrous oxide have increased as a result of human activities since 1750.
– Pre industrial value: 280 ppm
– 2005 value: 379 ppm
• 11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the 12th warmest years since 1850
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers
Source: 1994 Philippine GHG Inventory
TOTAL: 103,085 kt CO2
(50,038 kt CO2)(9,198 kt CO2)
(33,137 kt CO2) (10,711 kt CO2)
GHG Sources in Phil.
What’s it all about?
To summarize…
World has gotten warmer.
It will continue to get hotter in this century and beyond.
We are causing this dangeroustrend.
More precipitation
from increased
evaporation due to higher
temp
Annual mean precipitation expected to increase about 14% in East Asia – but this is not distributed evenly in the region
Changes in annual mean precipitation in %
(period 2071/2100 compared to 1961/1990, SRES A2)
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm
Projected precipitation changes
ADB Study on Economic Impacts of CC in Southeast Asia:- Indonesia, Thailand and
Vietnam will begenerally drier in next 2-3 decades
- Philippines will be generally wetter til the end of this century
Cotabato, August 2009400,000 people displaced
Laguna, Sept 2009
Sept 27, 2009 - Mindoro Occidental
Baguio, Oct 2009
Pangasinan, Oct 2009
A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology
HAZARD
Risk: Climate Change(Rainfall)
Rainfall Hazards
Disasters: Earth falls
Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte (Feb 2006)
San Ricardo, Southern Leyte (Dec 2003)
• Mudslide happened after heavy rains dumped 459.2 mm of rain on the area in the space of 3 days.
• In Dec 2003, at least 200 died from landslides and flooding after the area experienced the heaviest rainfall in 25 years.
• Inundate wetlands and other low lying lands
• Erode beaches
• Intensify flooding
Rising Sea
Levels
Observed consequencesSea level rise of past 140 years
15 - 20 cm
Sea
leve
l ris
e re
lativ
e to
188
0 (c
m)
Year
Metro Manila
Many of our LGUs are highly vulnerable –located in coastal areas
• Inundate wetlands and other low lying lands
• Erode beaches
• Intensify flooding
• Increase the salinity of rivers, bays and groundwater tables
Rising Sea
Levels
Developing countries,
will be hit soonest and hardest.
Adaptation provides the way to prepare for
and respond to these impacts.
This is the challenge
we face.
SALTWATERINTRUSION
2003
WATER RESOURCESCountry Total Resources 2000
m3/personWorld 42,655.0 7,045
Asia 13,508.0 3,668
United States of America 2,460.0 8,838
Japan 460.0 3,393
Lao People’s Democratic Republic 190.4 35,049
Malaysia 580.0 26,074
Myanmar 880.6 19,306
Indonesia 2,838.0 13,380
Cambodia 120.6 10,795
Vietnam 366.5 4,591
Philippines 146.01/ 1,9071/
Thailand 110.02/ 1,8542/
• Only 2.56% of the world’s water is freshwater
At Manila’s South Harbor mean sea level rose at about 2 millimeters per year from 1902 to the early 1960’s. . .
. . then started rising ten times as fast. WHY?Groundwater withdrawal!
<20 million liters per day (MLD)
250 MLD
778 MLD
1770 MLD in 2004 (CEST 2004)
989 MLD in 1990 (JICA 1992)
Metro Manila`s
groundwater demand is
still increasing.
Consequent subsidence
will continue and may
even accelerate!
Benchmarks used for re-leveling (1978 vs 2000) survey (Jacob 2004)
Tuff
Coastal/Alluvial
0.95
1.40
1.46
0.76
0.790.1
60.77 0.9
6
0.96
0.88 0.5
7
0.67
0.95
0.73
0.61
0.59
0.51
0.57
0.43
0.46
0.46
0.46 0.4
7
0.64
Maximum magnitude of subsidence – 1.46 m (6.1 cm/y)
Change in height of maximum high tide, from 1991 to 2002 based on social survey ranges from 0.5 - 1.0 m (4.5 – 9.1 cm/y)
There appears to be an acceleration in rate of subsidence in recent years.
Lateral variation in magnitude of subsidence is not a function of underlying lithology.
* Winter temps will change more than summer temps.
• Minimum daily temp will increase more than max. daily temp
• Land will warm more than oceans, causing stronger monsoon
• Higher latitudes and altitudes will experience greater warming
• Number of frost days will decline, precipitation more rain that snowfall
Based on the IPCC middle
range scenario,entire East
Asia Region will
experience temperature rise of about
2.5C by end of the century
Risk: Climate Change (Temperature)
TemperatureHazards
Across SocietyVulnerable sectors
– Agriculture– Freshwater– Health– Biodiversity– Forests
ENSO drought events and rice
1oC increase leads to15% decrease in rice yield
From: www.sciencentral.com: Cassman, IRRI, National Academy of Sciences
El Niño and Philippine Crops
Source: Impacts of Climate Change in Asia, Burning our Future, Greenpeace
Climate Change Impacts
CORAL BLEACHING
& DEATH
• 1995 & 1998 coral bleaching events
World Wildlife Fund. Climate Change Scenarios for the Philippines
• June-Nov 1998 coral bleaching led to 46% decreasein coral cover and about 49% of overall coral death in the area
• Increase in sea surface temperatures of
Bolinao, Kalayaan Island Group, NW Palawan)
Arceo, et. al. Coral Bleaching in the Philippines. Disturbing Climate. 2001
about 0.50C can already initiate
coral bleaching
(e.g., Tubbataha Reef Marine Park,
Licuanan et al., 2001
Coral reefs occupy 1% of total earth’s surface but is home to 25% of marine life
40 Million Filipinos depend on seafoodas their primary source of protein.
50% of Filipinos depend on agriculture /mariculture
as their primary source of livelihood.
Direct Observations of Recent Climate
Change
There is observational evidence of increase intensity of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since 1970 correlated with the increase in sea surface temperature.
Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent. While hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent.
More intense and longer droughtssince 1970 particularly in the tropics and subtropics due to increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation.
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers
Graffiti over East Asia
CLIMATE CHANGE…• These changes are happening
faster than ever before.
• They have begun & will continuefor the foreseeable future.
• They are non-linear and no one knows when they will end.
• There are no assurances that natural or human systems can adapt quickly enough.
In summary, harm’s way:
• Typhoon– Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)
• Drought (El Nino)– Mindanao (central, west)
• Climate Change – Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas
(central)– Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast),
Visayas (east)
Aggravated by loss of forests which serve as carbon sinks & watersheds
• Half of the forests that originally covered 46% of the Earth's land surface are gone.
• Only one-fifth of the Earth's original forests remain pristine and undisturbed
EROSION CLASSES, 1993Unclassified
1%
Moderate Erosion
28%
Slight Erosion
30%
Severe Erosion
17%
No Erosion24%
LAND RESOURCES
CLIMATE IMPACTS
Environmental Destruction Economic Disruption
Social DislocationPolitical Destabilization
- Due to its geographic location in the Pacific Ringof Fire , it has many fault lines
- Over 200 volcanoes, 20 of which are active
- Visited by an average of 20 typhoons annually
Philippines – one of the most vulnerable countries to natural
disasters
Historical typhoon track
in the Philippines
Geohazard
It is a condition/s of the environment brought about by a geological phenomenon/na, t hat has/have the potential of causing loss of lives and damage to property (Risk).
Hazard - rock will fall
HAZARD
Risk - rock fall will harm couple
RISK
Philippines – one of the most vulnerable countries to natural
disastersThe natural hazards of geologic & hydrometeorologicorigins:
(1) earthquake-induced landslide, (2) ground shaking(3) ground rupture(4) Liquefaction(5) volcanic eruptions(6) flooding;(7) storm surge; and (8) rain-induced landslide.
- Urgent need for Disaster Risk Reduction, not justDisaster Response
- To be done under the Hyogo Framework for Action(HFA) adopted in January 2005 during the World Conference on Disaster Reduction.
- HFA calls for the effective implementation of DRR efforts to substantially reduce disaster losses by 2015in terms of lives and in the social, economic, andenvironmental assets of communities and countries,as an essential condition for sustainable development.
Philippines and Natural Disasters
Disaster Risk Reduction:
People and institutions involved in preparedness, mitigation, and prevention activities associated with extreme events.
Disaster Myths:• People panic during disasters, they
cannot be relied upon to react rationally
• The chaos that follows disasters encourage many people to engage in anti-social behavior – looting
• External experts are the main agents in risk reduction and disaster response
Disaster Myths:
• People are fatalistic about disasters and do not take action to protect themselves
• When disaster strikes, people are helpless, passive dependent victims incapable of carrying out even basic tasks
Average Annual Impact in the Philippines
• 1,025 deaths• 835 people
injured• 252,915 people
displaced• P8B worth of
damages
Emergency Response
Post-Emergency
Prevention & Mitigation
Preparedness
Framing Disaster Risk Reduction
Disaster Management Cycle
PREPAREDNESS
MITIGATION
RESPONSE
REHABILITATION
RECONSTRUCTION
Challenges, Opportunities & Gaps
Logistics andEquipment
Coherent institutional Coordination in DRR
Preparedness forSaving Properties
& Recovery
Enhancing Community Based DRR & Early Warning Systems
Linking DRR to ClimateChange Adaptation(management tools)
Need for a More Reliable Data
EvacuationCenters
With new threats like climate change and global warming, the risks of natural disasters are intensifying and could potentially reverse the gains achieved over the years on humandevelopment and the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals.
Natural Disasters and Climate Change
What is the business case for
ending life on earth?
New Rule
If we insist on ruining the planet, we have to stop
claiming we are a “superior species”
CONCLUSION• Business as usual is NOT AN OPTION!
• Unless action is taken now:- the standard of living will suffer far worse
consequences- poverty will be exacerbated
- there will be more damage to property & lives- decades of growth can be wiped out - man’s very survival is at great risk!
CONCLUSION• Climate change action
will require concerted effort of governments & their partners (PRIVATE SECTOR. NGOs, communities, development partners) to manage and adopt to a changing & more invasive environment
SHARED RESPONSIBILITY
WE MUST PLAN TOGETHER.
Under the framework of SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
1. Reduce carbon(mitigation)
2. Reduce risk(adaptation)
Some Mitigation Measures:• Energy Conservation• Improve energy efficiency• Shift to alternative, renewable fuel
(non fossil fuel)• Control urban sprawl• Improve mass transport system• Water conservation • Water recycling• Ecological Solid Waste Mgt – composting,
recycling & reuse • Stop burning of waste
Mitigation alone is not enough -
impacts of Climate Change a REALITY we need to adjust to and plan for
NOW!!!
Temperature - Mitigation & Adaptation Sound Practices
Tokyo & Singapore Roof-top gardens and roadside greening to reduce impacts of urban heat island effect
Seattle Urban greenery project
Albuquerque & Seattle (King County)
Improved building design and insulationGREEN BUILDINGS
GreeningGreen Walls (urban farming)
June 18
GreeningGreen Walls (urban farming)
June 18Aug 5
GreeningGreen Roofs (urban farming)
GK Office in Cagayan de Oro
Natural lighting
Vents to allow warm air to go out
Natural lighting &ventilation
GK Office in Cagayan de Oro
Natural lighting
Vents to allow warm air to go out
Natural lighting &ventilation
Sea level rise - Adaptation Sound Practices
Singapore Increase the ground level in all reclamation projects to factor in likely increase in sea-level
Shanghai 2 phase project to regulate water flow to reduce flooding and provide platform for water quality monitoring
London Redesign of Thames Barrier flood control system
• Relocate high risk settlements
Precipitation - Adaptation Sound Practices
London
Venice
Redesigning urban storm water drainage system considering change in frequency and intensification of rainfall79 gates at 3 lagoon inlets in Venice (air injected into hollow gates causing them to rise & block seawater
Tokyo Designing urban holding ponds under roads and parks to temporarily store run off water to avoid flash floods
Jakarta To construct storm water drainage canal system (East Canal) to provide adequate drainage for eastern part of city
Vietnam Build large & medium reservoirs upstream of big riversStrengthen extensive dike system (5000 kms of river dikes & 3,000 kms of sea dikes)
Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities
Sector Adaptation option/strategy
Water(Singapore)
Expanded rainwater harvestingWater storage & conservationWater re-use (NeWater)DesalinationWater use and irrigation efficiency
. We are blessed with more than140 Billion Cubic Meters of
rainfall, each year.
We lose nearly 80% of it
Promote the setting up of small lagoons/ ponds (water impounding) in the lowest portion of your area –(could be also used for aquaculture and agriculture)
Allow rainwater to recharge the aquifer
FLOOD HEIGHT: 4-5m
HOUSE DESIGN & STANDARDS
- Houses on stilt in Candaba (flooding)
- Build to withstand stronger typhoons
Photo by J. Ong
Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities
Sector Adaptation option/strategy
Agriculture Develop rice varieties that can withstand being under water for long periods and can also withstand drought;
Use rice farming method that requires less water
Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities
Sector Adaptation option/strategy
Infrastructure & settlements
RelocationSeawalls & storm surge barriersCreation of marshlands &
wetlands as buffer vs sea levelrise & flooding
Protection of existing natural barriers
Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities
Sector Adaptation option/strategy
Energy Strengthening overhead transmission & distributioninfrastructure
Underground cabling for utilitiesUse of renewable sourcesReduced dependence on single energy source
Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities
Sector Adaptation option/strategy
Public health Comprehensive vector surveillance program (to identify source of infectious disease to be identified and eliminated before it poses a threat to the population)
• Construct rainwater collection systems (including ponds where appropriate) in our premises to capture rainwater, recharge the aquifer and as hedge against coming droughts and saline water intrusion into the aquifers as sea level rises
• Support effective watershed management toprotect the source of our waters
• Implement the pertinent provisions of the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act and EcologicalSolid Waste Management Act.
Protect remaining forest resourcesand PLANT MORE
• Practice eco-waste mgt
• Supportreuse andrecyclingprograms
• Do not burnyour waste including agriculturalwaste
Methane Emission Reduction Project
• Annual reduction in greenhouse gases: 116,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent
• Total 10-year reduction: 1,163,394 tonnes from 2008 to 2017
QC partnered with PANGEA – an Italian firm
Benefits to the city:• Donation of Euro15 -32/CER sold• Free electricity for power plant• Free street lighting• Plantsahan ng Bayan
BIOGAS PLANT
PIPELINES
CERTIFIED CLEAN DEVELOPMENTMECHANISM (CDM)
After 6 years operation, more than 10M tons dumped in the facility. Saw another OPPORTUNITY –
Landfill Gas to Energy Project
Montalban bidded the project. Montalban Methane Power Corp ( a joint venture of the Zamora group with
a British firm won)
Financial benefits to Montalban, Rizal:
Royalty of 10% gross revenues
Project Revenue Profile:2/3 Power Tariff 1/3 CER Revenue
Estimated emissionreduction of 8.1M tons of CO2e
Investment of $38M c/o MMPC
THE WORLD IS CHANGING.
Are we on board as leaders or merefollowers?
VOTE EARTH!Be Part of the EARTH HOUR
• Switch off your lights from 8:30pm to 9:30pm on the last Saturday of March
• 2011 - Go Beyond the hour
Join the Celebration of Earth Day - April 22
Be part of the Movement!
2010 Theme: HAMON ng PANAHONCLIMATE CHANGE
2011 Theme: Earth Day Every Day!
We have no choice.
We have to adapt to this more invasive environment to ensure our very survival!
AVOID the UNTHINKABLE!
ADAPT to the UNAVOIDABLE!
SECURING LIFEBOATS & LIFELINESUnderstanding Sea Level Rise / Storm Surge / Saltwater Intrusion
LAOAG
APARRI
HAGONOY
PUERTO GALERA
A comprehensive study involving over 20 experts and based on over 300 peer reviewed scientific articles.
El Niño Southern Oscillation Eventsare likely to continue as a significant source of inter‐annual climate variability in the Coral Triangle region.
Sea Surface Temperaturesare likely to be between 1 to 4oC warmer by the end of this century.
Tropical Cyclonesare likely to become more intense.There is no clear Consensus, however, as to whether the location or frequency of tropical cyclones will change in a warming world.
OVERVIEW
Rainfall and River Floware likely to become more extreme. The inter‐annual variability of monsoon rainfall will increase. The intensity of drought associated with a given rainfall deficit will be greater in a warmer world.
Sea Levelsare likely to rise from +4 to +6 meters due to the possibility of The melting of the large land-based ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. The possible timing of such events remain uncertain.
Ocean Acidificationwill likely make the aragonite saturation state “marginal” for coral reefs and marine life that require calcium carbonatewithin the period 2020‐2050.
OVERVIEW
CLIMATE CHANGE…
• These changes are happeningfaster than ever before.
• They have begun & will continuefor the foreseeable future.
• They are non-linear and no one knows when they will end.
• There are no assurancesthat natural or human systems can adapt to the rate or extentof this change.
SIMULATIONS
+2 METERS+4 METERS
+6 METERSPlus a
safety marginat +12 METERS
Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.
• High threat coastal sitesmay become increasingly inhospitable.
• Climate refugees maymigrate away from coastalareas to inland sites.
• Movement of people andgoods may be seriouslycurtailed.
• Basic services andinfrastructure may not beprepared to handle majorshifts in population.
POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUSECONOMIC & SOCIAL
DISLOCATIONS, AS WELLAS NEW ENVIRONMENTAL& POLITICAL PRESSURES.
These are flood simulations, they are not forecasts.At best, this might provide a very rough indicatorof areas that may be more vulnerable toSea level rise, Storm surge, Saltwater intrusionor a combination thereof.
The timing and extent of climate change remains uncertain.
These have been generated merely to illustrate the level of potential riskthat parts of the Philippines may be exposed to, in order to allow better preparation.
SEA LEVEL RISESIMULATIONS
THE PHILIPPINES
Laoag
+ 12m risk zone
APARRI
+ 12m risk zone
Lingayen Gulf
+ 12m risk zone
Central Luzon
+ safety margin
+ 12m risk zone
Metro - Manila
+12m risk zone
+12m risk zone
Batangas
+12m risk zone
Lucena City
+12m risk zone
Mindoro
+12m risk zone
BUSUANGA
Coron
Culion
+12m risk zone
EL NIDO
+12m risk zone
TAYTAY
+12m risk zone
SAN VICENTE
+12m risk zone
DUMARAN
+12m risk zone
ROXAS
+12m risk zone
PUERTO PRINCESA
+12m risk zone
NARRA
+12m risk zone
ESPANOLA
+12m risk zone
BATARAZA
+12m risk zone
BALABAC
Camarines Sur
+12m risk zone
Boracay
+12m risk zone
Roxas City
+ safety margin
+12m risk zone
Iloilo City
+ safety margin +12m risk zone
Negros Occidental
+12m risk zone
Cebu City / Mactan
+ safety margin
+12m risk zone
Leyte
+12m risk zone
Dumaguete
+ 12m risk zone
Bais
+ 12m risk zone
Surigao
+12m risk zone
Butuan
+12m risk zone
Bugo
+12m risk zone
Cagayan de Oro
+12m risk zone
Iligan
+12m risk zone
Panguil Bay
+12m risk zone
Carmen
+12m safety margin
Panabo
+12m safety margin
Davao
+12m safety margin
Digos
+12m safety margin
General Santos City
+12m risk zone
Cotabato
+ 12m risk zone
2
Malabang
+ 12m risk zone
3
Pagadian
+ 12m risk zone
4Ipil
+ 12m risk zone
Zamboanga
Zamboanga
+ 12m risk zone
5
Basilan
Jolo
Bongao
Tawi Tawi
Sitangkai / Sibutu
WATERFOODHEALTHLAND / HOMELIVELIHOOD
THE NAUTICALHIGHWAY
All major seaportswill require somere-engineering.
NEW AVIATION BACKBONE?Lower Risk to Sea Levels / Storm Surge
Located beyond +6 Meter flood levels
LuzonTuguegarao City ( R2 )Cauayan, Isabela ( R2 )Baguio City ( CAR )Angeles City ( R3 )Lipa City ( R4 )Naga City ( R5 )Legaspi City ( R5 )
VisayasSanta Barbara, Iloilo ( R6 )Silay City ( R6 )
MindanaoCagayan de Oro City ( R10 )Davao City ( R11 )General Santos City ( R12 )Jolo City ( ARMM )
ADDITIONAL “LIFELINE” ELEMENTS
• Social / Commercial / Political Institutions• Telecommunications• Energy• Banking & Finance• Insurance & Risk Coverage• Health Systems• Disaster Preparation & Response
Adaptive Management
CLIMATE ADAPTATION
We can prepare for this.Act now. Locally.