9th Philippine Meteorological Society Convention Proceedings

1 | 9 t h P M S C o n v e n t i o n P r o c e e d i n g s ( 2 0 1 4 )


CONVENTION RATIONALE By: Raymond Ordinario

In the past few years, the Philippines has been affected by extreme weather events such as

Tropical Storm Sendong (Washi) in 2011 which brought severe flooding in the cities of Cagayan

de Oro and Iligan, Typhoon Pablo (Bopha) in 2012 caused damages in coastal areas of Davao

Oriental and Compostela Valley, and recently Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) in 2013, the strongest

tropical cyclone of the century, struck Central Visayas which highly devastated coastal

communities of Samar and Leyte Provinces particularly Tacloban City due to storm surge.

Because of these extreme events that may be experienced again in the future, this year‟s PMS

Convention theme will be “State-of-the-Art Technologies in response to Extreme Weather and

Climate Events” which aims to introduce these new technologies and initiatives to help mitigate

their impacts. We envision linking the science of meteorology to disaster management and public

awareness. Furthermore, this convention will serve as a good venue to learn from local

experiences and foreign expertise.

CONVENTION SUBTHEMES

1. Understanding extreme weather and climate events

Experiences with Typhoon Yolanda 1: PAGASA

Experiences with Typhoon Yolanda 2: NGCP

El Niño: Dry Spell 2007/2009-2010

Habagat of 2012 and 2013

2. Update in Climate Change Projections and Climate Change Adaptation in the

Philippines

Updates on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

Mapping of Vulnerability on Food Security

Current Climate Change Projection in the Philippines

Climate Change Adaptation in the Philippines

3. Current initiatives related to extreme weather and climate events

Engineering and Structural Design

Agriculture and Food Security

Flood and Coastal Management

Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP)


4. State of the Art Technologies

RADAR

Satellite and Telecommunication Technologies

5. Current Development of Allied Sciences

PAGASA‟s acquired technologies

Application of satellite technologies to regional climate models


CONVENTION ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

Susan R. Espinueva, Ph.D.

Chairperson

Esperanza O. Cayanan, Ph. D.

PMS President

Ma. Cecilia A. Monteverde

Sharon Juliet M. Arruejo

Delia T. Basco

Robert Z. Quinto

Analiza S. Solis

Jorybell A. Masallo

Adelaida C. Duran

Raymond C. Ordinario

Aniceta B. Garcia

Rhonalyn L. Vergara

Joseph Q. Basconcillo

PMS Officers

Teresa Pajarillo

Mario Miclat

Judith Bomidiano

Claro Capulong

Convention Secretariat


CONVENTION PROCEEDINGS COMMITTEE


Lead Editor


Rhonalyn L. Vergara-Macalalad

Rosemarie Ann A. Marasigan

Section Editors

Jorybell A. Masallo

Layout


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Convention Rationale

Convention Organizing Committee

Session 1: Understanding Extreme Weather and Climate Events PAGES 7-12

Typhoon Yolanda: An In-Depth Analysis by Raymond C. Ordinario

Impact of Typhoon Yolanda on Power Transmission System by Lino Fabia

Comparison of Typhoon Yolanda with 1912 Typhoon by Hisayuki Kubota

Comparative Review of Habagat 2012 and Habagat 2013 by Ma. Cecilia A. Monteverde

Session 2: Update in Climate Change Projections and CCA in the Philippines PAGES 13-21

Update on the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) by Rosalina G. de Guzman

Current Climate Change Projection in the Philippines by Joseph Q. Basconcillo

Climate Change Adaptation in the Philippines: Government Perspective by Maria Lovella Segayo

Sea Level Rise by Rosa T. Perez

Mapping of Vulnerability on Food Insecurity by Eulito Bautista

Session 3: Current Initiatives Related to Extreme Weather and Climate Events PAGES 22-25

RAINWATCHER: Polarimetric Radar Rainfall Sensor with full Solid State Technology by Jose

Rolando Lamac and Vincent Gil Tuazon

DOST PAGASA Meteorological Satellite Facility and Its Relevance to WMO Space Program by

Vicente Palcon Jr.

Session 4: State of the Art Technologies PAGES 26-32

Agriculture and Food Security: International Setting by Reiner Wassman

Design of Structures for Wind and NCSP 6th Edition 2010 by Carlos M. Villaraza

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in the

Comprehensive Land Use Plan by Linda Malena- Hornilla


Session 5: Current Development of Allied Sciences PAGES 33-38

July 2007 Unconventional Dry Spell by Esperanza O. Cayanan

Storm Surge and Coastal Hazard Mapping in the Philippines by Nestor B. Nimes

Role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Social Network in Disaster

Management by Arnel R. Manoos

Dynamical Downscaling of Selected CMIP3 Models for Southeast Asia using the PRECIS

Regional Climate Model by Thelma A. Cinco

Roster of PMS Officers

Suggested Citation

Acknowledgment

SUGGESTED CITATION

Basconcillo, J., Ordinario, R., Macalalad, R., Marasigan, R., & Masallo, J. (2014). 9th PMS Convention

Proceedings. 9th PMS National Meteorological-Hydrological Convention (20-21 February 2014).

Quezon City: Philippine Meteorological Society.


SESSION 1

“UNDERSTANDING EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS”

Rhonalyn L. Vergara-Macalalad

Section Editor

Secretary, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines

Weather Specialist, PAGASA: Quezon City, Philippines

Engr. Fredolina Baldonado1

Session Chairperson

Former President, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines

Assistant Weather Services Chief, PAGASA: Quezon City, Philippines

Robert Z. Quinto

Session Rapporteur

Trustee, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines

Senior Weather Specialist, PAGASA: Quezon City, Philippines

Summary

Due to its geographical location, we cannot negate the idea that the Philippines is very prone to

the effects of tropical cyclones and other disaster-causing weather phenomena. In fact, history

has documented our country as a place where extreme to most extreme weather and climate

events were experienced. These experiences had deeply scarred the people due to the impacts

they have brought to lives and properties. We have seen how these very strong typhoons,

together with excessive or torrential rain-causing landslides, severe winds and storm surge had

caused deaths and massive destructions leaving billions of dollars of damages in the country.

Typhoon Yolanda is one of the many deadly tropical cyclones, being the strongest in history that

ever passed over the country and recorded in history. Indeed, it is one of the many events that

clearly defined how vulnerable our country is to extreme weather event. This leads the

organizers of the 9th

Convention of the Philippine Meteorological Society make the first session

to focus more on the said typhoon and its characteristics. With the topics namely a) Typhoon

Yolanda an in-Depth Analysis, b) Impacts of Typhoon Yolanda on Power Transmission System,

and; c) Comparison of Typhoon Yolanda with the 1912 Typhoon, one can fully understand what

had happened during its transit.

1 Engr. Baldonado is currently with the North Luzon Regional Services Division of PAGASA-DOST.


In an in-depth analysis of Mr. Raymond Ordinario about Typhoon Yolanda, the formation from

cyclogenesis down to its full development, taking into consideration those specific conditions

that made the said typhoon unique was clearly discussed. Also, the storm surge associated with

Typhoon Yolanda, as well as the destruction it brought to people living in the coastlines was also

reviewed. To mention some facts, Yolanda being classified as a Super Typhoon based on its wind

strength, attained a maximum sustained wind in a 10-min average of 240 kilometer per hour and

gustiness of 275 kilometres per hour when it made landfall in Guian, Eastern Samar. As it

headed towards Samar area, it generated storm surges of about 5 to 7 meters high that

inundated or flooded the coastal areas of islands in the Visayas. Worst hit is the city of Tacloban

due to the orientation of the coastline to the path of the typhoon. The effect of this typhoon-

induced storm surge in Central Visayas can be regarded as an extensive devastation. Based on

the report of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, a total of 6245 people

were killed while almost 3 million families were greatly affected. In terms of properties,

agriculture, bridges and infrastructures including churches and airports were severely damaged.

Power failure and water systems were destroyed were also extensive throughout the affected

areas as power lines and water systems were destroyed. As Engr. Lino Fabia of the National

Grid Corporation of the Philippines discussed in his presentation, the powerlines of Central

Visayas were greatly affected by the Typhoon Yolanda. He showed how extensive the power loss

in Cebu, Negros and Panay due to damaged power plants facilities and toppled transmissions

poles.

Meanwhile based on records from 1948 to 2012, there are about 236 tropical cyclones that

crossed over Visayas Regions. From this number, a total of 56 tropical cyclones occurred during

the month of November and 98% of these made landfall. Similarly, in a study made by Dr.

Hisayuli Kubota of Japan Agency for Marine –Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), he

mentioned that there are a lot of typhoon that hit Visayas from1897-2013 and five (5) of which

landed Tacloban and among those, three (3) produced storm surge damages – the 1897, 1912

Typhoons and 2013 Typhoon Yolanda. The storm surge produced by these typhoons ranges from

0.4 to 7 meters in height. This suggests that storm surge in those areas though not an unfamiliar

scene and new to their experience, it is something that people must prepare about.

Nowadays, not only strong typhoons are considered fatal to human lives but also torrential rains

and severe wind-related occurrence since they can also cause casualties from the flood causing

land/mudslides associated with them. In fact, the torrential rains carried by a “Habagat” for

instance are incidents which can cause damages similar to what a powerful typhoon could do.

With this, Ms. Ma. Cecilia A. Monteverde did a comparative review of Habagat happened in

2012 and Habagat in 2013. Her results showed that these events were both brought about by the

effect of an existing tropical cyclone positioned in Northern Luzon of in Taiwan

Okinawa area. This enhances the Southwest Monsoon which increases rainfall

intensity hence, bringing widespread flooding in certain areas like Metro Manila.


After realizing how exposed our country to extreme weather and climate events as what was

learned from Yolanda and Habagat, its people should start finding ways to prevent the

disastrous impacts brought by similar situations. A simple start of understanding and knowing

the science of typhoon is a good way of strengthening one’s capacity of formulating bigger

solution to weather related problems. This can be done through many different ways like

educating the students in school, educating the public through information and education

campaign for the locals and by simply exchanging ideas on how to respond to the negative

effects of storms when they finally come with the experts. Lastly, Typhoon Yolanda and the

Habagat remind us that not only lives but also our nature must be given the highest regard.

Typhoon Yolanda: An In-Depth Analysis




The chronological events related to Typhoon (TY) Yolanda (it also goes by its international

name “Haiyan) from its early development to a Low Pressure Area to full scale typhoon intensity

were discussed in this session. TY Yolanda entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

on November 6, 2014 and left on November 9, 2014. During its stay in the Philippines, it caused

unimaginable severe winds, storm surges, and damages to the Filipino people and their

properties. Indeed, Typhoon Yolanda is the strongest of its kind ever recorded and confronted.

TY Yolanda made landfall in Guiuan Eastern Samar specifically over Homonhon & Suluan

Islands. The last recorded pressure before its landfall at Guiuan station was 910.0 hPa. At this

pressure, the equivalent maximum sustained wind is 240kph near the center and gustiness up to

280kph.

Based on interviews and actual observations in the area, the eye of TY Yolanda passed between

the Municipalities of Dulag and Tolosa, Leyte between 5am to 6am of Nov 8, 2014. The

Provinces of Leyte and Eastern Samar were devastated by Typhoon Haiyan and associated storm

surges. A height of 5-6 meters was recorded in Tacloban to Palo, Leyte with inundation of 600 to

800 meters. In Basey, Samar, similar height and inundation were reported. Guiuan to Hernani,

Eastern Samar experienced higher wave height reaching up to 6 to 7 meters with inundation of

800 to 1000 meters.

TY Yolanda made six (6) landfalls: (1) Guian Eastern Samar, (2) Tolosa, Leyte, (3)

Daanbantayan, Cebu, (4) Bantayan Island, Cebu, (5) Concepcion, Iloilo, and (6)

Busuanga, Palawan. It took 7 days and 6 hours before it dissipated with lowest

pressure of 895 hPa. It stayed in PAR for 5 days with a maximum sustained wind


of 240 kph and 280 kph gustiness. Two RADOME at PAGASA Guiuan Station were destroyed

by strong winds on Nov 8, 2014 at 5 AM. The maximum observed sustained wind coming from

northeast was 191 kph recorded.

Impact of Typhoon Yolanda on Power Transmission System

Engr. Lino Fabia

National Grid Corporation of the Philippines: Quezon City, Philippines

During the passage of TY Yolanda, the whole Visayas power grid experienced total power loss.

NGCP automatically cuts of power system whenever there is a public storm warning signal

raised by PAGASA in any place. In the case of TY Yolanda, power was immediately restore in

Cebu, Negros and Panay (CNP) grid. One of the impacts brought by TY Yolanda is that several

power plants in Leyte and cannot operate due to damaged facilities. Several steel towers and

poles of transmission and sub-transmission lines in Leyte, Samar and Panay areas were also

damaged and toppled. Several NGCP substations control buildings and switchyards were

affected and reported damages but operations were reinstated immediately.

Lessons learned. In preparedness to extreme events, there are several lessons that can be

obtained from our experiences. NGCP noted that there should be improvement in the level of

stocks of materials to cater for unexpected emergencies similar to TY Yolanda. Warehouses or

staging areas for transmission line supplies and materials including accessories should be near

the sea port for faster mobilization to other regions. There is a need now to redesign the steel

towers that can sustain more than the previous highest wind speed. All control buildings design

should prioritize its sturdiness to typhoon than its architectural appearance. Remove/limit the

eaves of building roofing in the design of new buildings while the roofing eaves of

exposed/damaged existing buildings should be rehabilitated. The use of wide glass windows and

doors or it should be smaller in size should be limited with proper design and function.

Communication plan should be established in form of high-frequency radio, portable radio

repeater/satellite that has wider coverage areas and longer distance communication link in the

field workers, satellite command centers, and regional & overall command centers.


Comparison of Typhoon Yolanda with 1912 Typhoon

Hisayuki Kubota, PhD

Scientist, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science Technology (JAMSTEC): Kanagawa, Japan

In a study conducted by JAMSTEC, it was found out that there are many typhoons that have

landed near Tacloban in 1897-2013. Among these numbers, three tropical cyclones generated

storm surges other than TY Yolanda. Based on the report of the Monthly Weather Review (1912)

of Philippine Weather Bureau, the 1897 tropical cyclone recorded 925.2 hPa minimum station

pressure at PAGASA Tanauan. This resulted to maximum wave height of 7.3 m in Hernani, 4.9

m in Basey, and less than 1 m in Tacloban and Guian.

In 1912, another tropical cyclone was reported to have generated storm surge in the same areas

where TY Yolanda crossed. The Municipalities of Bobon, Tababao, and Sta. Rita in Samar

reported more than 6 m of wave height. Tacloban, this time, was hit by a 2 m storm surge height

and Capiz with 1 m. The minimum station pressure was observed in Tacloban at 924.0 hPa.

Kubota concluded the presentation by stating that recently Philippines tends to face strong

typhoon landfall due to warm subsurface temperature associated with climate regime shift

around 2008.

Comparative review of Habagat 2012 and Habagat 2013


Vice President, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines


The presence of tropical cyclone in the north of Northern Luzon or the Taiwan-Okinawa area

enhances the Southwest Monsoon which increases rainfall intensity hence, bringing widespread

flooding in particular areas. Southwest monsoon (locally known as Habagat) is a seasonal wind

blowing from the southwest direction. It causes extensive cloud development and rainfall at the

western sections of the country. It normally occurs during the months of June to October each

year.

With the continuous and massive precipitation during the two (2) successive southwest

monsoons in 2012 and 2013, severe flooding had been reported in most areas in Metro Manila

and nearby regions. Rainfall concentration during Habagat 2012 was observed over Metro

Manila while, during Habagat 2013, southern portions of Metro Manila suffered intense

precipitation. State-of-the-art meteorological tools play a vital and significant contribution

towards accurate and reliable weather-related information.


Improved forecasting and emergency response have lowered tropical cyclone casualty rates, but

as more people and infrastructures move into harm‟s way, storms are likely to become

destructive.

Section Editor’s Note

All discussions in this session were directly lifted from the presentations of our distinguished

panelists. Citations and references are exclusively ascribed to them respective to their

commitment to present before the Convention.


SESSION 2

“UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND CLIMATE

CHANGE ADAPTATION IN THE PHILIPPINES”


Session Chairperson and Section Editor



Delia T. Basco

Session Rapporteur



Summary

Changes in climate patterns are better understood if anchored on studying future world

scenarios, projected impacts, and subsequently formulate adaptation strategies. Through this

framework, the Philippine Meteorological Society hosted a session on different levels of climate

change studies from global efforts to local adaptation initiatives. The topics are as follows: (1)

Update on the 5th

Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC); (2) Current Climate Change Projection in the Philippines; (3) Climate Change

Adaptation in the Philippines; (4) Sea Level Rise; and (5) Mapping of Vulnerability on Food

Security.

Different people will have different adaptation strategies and coping mechanisms to changing

climate patterns. But to develop these strategies, it is necessary to provide good information

from which good decision making processes could be instigated.

Ms. Rosalina de Guzman shared some updates on recently concluded evidences of global

warming and how climate scientists crafted new future realities. Dr. Rosa Perez complemented

the foregoing presentation with her discussions on sea level rise and how it adversely affect the

livelihood and welfare especially in coastal communities and island nations.

Both topics were excellent jumpstarts of the Session because they provided insights on the

current state of the global climate system. It is realized, through these discussions, that

concerted efforts are vital to how we can mitigate climate change impacts. Concerted efforts, in

this sense, directly translate to the actions taken towards greenhouse gases

emissions among others.


Mr. Joseph Basconcillo presented projected changes in seasonal rainfall and mean temperature

over the Philippines as a result of an initiative developed with FAO AMICAF and PAGASA. Dr.

Eulito Bautista showed how climate change projections were used in various purposes such as

water resources and crop yield modeling, poverty and hunger incidence analysis, socioeconomic

policies analysis, and livelihoods’ adaptation strategies. Ms. Lovella Segayo presented the

efforts of the Philippine national government to support initiatives on climate change studies all

the way down to the community level.

With the new assessment of IPCC and the preliminary results on the climate projections in the

Philippines, the climate change adaptation and mitigation should take place to minimize the

impact of impending climate change. The Philippines’s adaptation strategy was mandated by

Climate Change Act of 2009 and having the fund to initiate these activities is thru another law

that will finance the adaptation and mitigation project on the local community with the use of

People Survival Fund. The involvement of the community to become climate change adaptive

and resilient is very crucial since it will cater the need of the people on the ground.

Sea level rise and food insecurity are one of the highly probable impact of changing climate both

on the global and local scale. Philippines being an archipelagic country is highly vulnerable to

climate change and most of the communities live in the coastal area which is highly exposed to

the impact of sea level rise. As our environment changes due to changing climate the issue on

food insecurity became one of the outmost concerns. With the result from the AMICAF project

shows that 49 provinces in the Philippines are vulnerable to food insecurity and three (3) out of

the 49 provinces was considered as very, very vulnerable to food insecurity.

In general, all topics under this Session concertedly suggested uncertainties as regards to

changes in climate patterns and how it could affect each individual and the community at large.

But they all agree that the springboard towards climate change adaptation is through good

climate information, no matter if it is scientific or psychosocial.

Update on the 5th

Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC)2

Rosalina G. de Guzman


Human Influence on Climate Change. The Philippines is among the countries that are vulnerable

to climate change specifically on sea level rise because it is an archipelago. This topic

concentrated on four topics namely: (a) observed changes in the climate; (b) what is causing

2 IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment

Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J.

Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and

New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.


these changes, (c) future projections of climate change; and (d) main conclusions and key

uncertainties. The emphasis on the contribution of human activities in the emission of

Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) was articulated in the presentation because it is likely that human

influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th

century. This

is due to the fact that the 40% increase in GHGs since 1750 is due to human activity and that it

exceeds the recorded in ice cores for the last 800,000 years according to IPCC.

Evidences of Global Warming. The warming of the global climate system is unequivocal and

many of the observed changes in both the maximum and minimum temperature extremes are

unprecedented since 1950s. The average warming of land and ocean surface temperature is 0.85

C from 1880 to 2012. Due to theses warming trends, the annual mean arctic summer sea ice

extent decreased with a rate of 3.5% to 4.1% per decade from 1979 to 2012. There was observed

positive net radiation or positive forcing which is related to warming. The largest contribution of

the positive forcing is associated with the increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon

dioxide (CO2) since 1750. The observed warming is consistent with simulations that include

anthropogenic factors. With this evidence of human influence in climate systems the new

assessment report was published by IPCC since the 4th

Assessment Report (AR4) dealt with (a)

long record of surface temperature, heat content; (b) less negative aerosol forcing based on

improved estimates; (c) reduced recent warming rate and (d) methodological changes using prior

assumptions while the 5th

Assessment Report (AR5) dealt with multiple line of evidence such as

(1) paleo-climatic observation, (2) observed climate change, (3) modeling and (4) feedback

analysis which supported to have high confidence.

The future climate can be determined partially by internal and external forcing. The internal

forcing involved natural processes in the atmosphere such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation

(ENSO); Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO); and the year-year and decade-decade

fluctuation in the atmospheric condition while external forcing involves the changes in the

radiative forcing by introducing changes in the concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs).

A New Way to Describe Future World. The two assessment reports of IPCC dealt with the future

projection on climate system. In previous future world descriptions, AR4 focused on four (4)

emission scenarios (denoted as Special Report on Emission Scenarios or SRES). Each scenario is

based on different assumptions of future greenhouse gases emission, land-use and other driving

force. As a more recent future world description, AR5 deals with the Representative

Concentration Pathways or RCPs.

RCPs are GHGs concentration trajectories at which each pathway describes a future value of

radiative forcing in the year 2100 with an aim to provide a range of climate model responses

rather than derived from socio-economic storylines. RCPs describe four possible climate futures,

all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are

emitted in the years to come. The four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and

RCP8.5) are named after a possible range of radiative forcing values relative to


pre-industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2) which is used in research and climate

modeling. The RCP4.5 is the medium-low emissions increasing scenario while RCP8.5 is the

fossil-fuel intensive scenario. By the end of the century, the increase of global mean surface

temperature above 1986-2005 levels is projected to be: 0.3-1.7˚C under RCP2.6 and 2.6-4.8˚C

under RCP8.5.

What is there to come? There is very high confidence that long-term warming will be larger over

land than over the ocean, and that the Arctic region will warm most rapidly. Ocean warming will

continue for centuries, even if greenhouse gas emissions are decreased. Extreme precipitation

events over most of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will be very likely

to become more intense and more frequent by the end of this century. Monsoon precipitation is

likely to intensify, along with a lengthening of the monsoon season. It is very likely that the

number of cold days and night has decreased and the number of warm days and nights has

increased in the global scale. Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century

due to thermal expansion of the ocean, loss of ice glaciers and ice sheets and reduction of liquid

water storage on land. In conclusion, (1) continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause

further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change

will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. (2) Cumulative

emission of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and

beyond. Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2

are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by

past, present and future emissions of CO2.

Current Climate Change Projection in the Philippines3


4

Assistant Secretary, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines

Weather Specialist, PAGASA : Quezon City, Philippines

FAO AMICAF Project. The presentation provided insights on preliminary climate change

projections in the Philippines up to its provincial boundaries using different storylines of SRES.

This initiative was developed under the FAO AMICAF Project with PAGASA. Under Project

Component 1: Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture, the Global Climate Model (GCM) was

statistically downscaled to provide projections for crop growth models and hydrological models.

The crop models will give yield projections that will be used by Provincial Agriculture Market

(PAM) model to have Provincial Agricultural Market Impact (PAMI) that will result to Food

Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis. On the other hand, the hydrological model will provide water

availability for irrigation that will be used as an input for PAM then to PAMI then

3 Developed under FAO AMICAF Project of PAGASA and AMICAF Philippines


to Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis. Since the project will deal with climate models it is

necessary to provide the basic concept of climate models as well as the climate scenarios.

Methods and Data. Climate model is a numerical representation of the interactions in the global

climate systems. The climate models were ran using the boundary conditions as an input and

these boundary conditions are from different climate scenarios. Climate scenarios are the

description of the future world through different storylines. In the project it is focused on the

A1B and A2 scenarios. A1B scenario is focused on balanced emphasis on all energy sources and

on the other hand, A2 is characterized by a world of independently operating, self-reliant nations,

continuously increasing population and regionally oriented economic development. These

climate models are global in scale which has a coarse resolution. The target is to have a climate

projection at the provincial level which requires finer resolution. To achieve this, statistical

downscaling was used and it is defined as the relationship between model output and

observations. The methodology described have three (3) process such as (1) statistical

downscaling that will use the past climate from PAGASA stations and GCM at around 200 km

resolution and will also do hind-cast using reanalysis data from ERA-INTERIM, then will have a

control or baseline data then the two (2) projection of SRES; (2) spatial interpolation that using

model output at station level from statistical downscaling will use the residuals and then the

predictions; and lastly the (3) spatial aggregation, in this process the station projection will be

aggregated to provide spatial information in the provincial level.

Preliminary Result. The result for rainfall in the A1B and A2 scenario showed that the entire

Philippines have increasing projections while the lowest projections are found in the eastern

Philippines and the highest projections are found in Luzon. There is an annual change in rainfall

of 3-14% under A1B scenario while 7-19% under A2 scenario. In terms of average temperature,

under both scenarios (A1B and A2) show that the entire Philippines will have increasing

projections and in A1B the highest project is found in National Capital Region (NCR) while in

A2 scenario, the highest projections are found in the urbanized region. The annual change in

average temperature is within the range of 0.2.-0.5 C under A1B scenario and 0.3-0.4 C under

A2 scenario. The preliminary key findings are as follows: (a) mountainous areas will have lower

increase in temperature by 2040 especially in June-July-August (JJA); (b) NCR and neighboring

provinces will have higher increase in temperature by 2040 by as much as 0.5°C in March-April-

May (MAM); (c) temperature will increase by as much as 0.9°C; and (d) greater rainfall will be

experienced ranging from 3-19% increase.


Climate Change Adaptation in the Philippines: Government Perspective

Maria Lovella Segayo Development Management Officer IV

Climate Change Commission (CCC) of the Philippines: Manila, Philippines

Climate Change Act of 2009. The climate change adaptation in the Philippines is crafted with the

establishment of the Climate Change Commission (CCC) through the Climate Change Act of

2009. The Climate Change Act of 2009 helped to strengthen, integrate and consolidate and

institutionalize the sector based initiatives on Climate Change. The law also calls for the

formulation of the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change which focused on ensuring

the adaptation of the communities and ecosystems but as the same time to charter a cleaner

development path highlighting the mutual beneficial relationship of mitigation and adaptation. In

2012, the Republic Act 10174 was passed to provide a long term finances stream to address

climate change that essentially established the People Survival Fund that will support adaptation

activities of the local government and communities.

Quo Vadis, Philippines? The Climate Change Act of 2009 also requires developing a National

Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) that will serve as the roadmap of the government for

climate change actions. It also set the strategic direction of the government to address climate

change thru adaptation and mitigation for 2011 to 2028. The Plan has adopted a practical

approach in clustering programs and activities along seven priority themes in which sectoral

agencies and interest groups can easily relate with. The thematic clusters include: food security,

water sufficiency, ecosystem and environmental stability, human security, climate smart

industries and services, sustainable energy, and a cross-cutting knowledge and capacity

development cluster. Furthermore, it is realistically phased into three plan periods – short,

medium and long terms. There are at least 326 planned initial activities. The climate change

Adaptations (CCA) at the national level is the project on “Managing risk of communities within

the 18 Major River Basins vulnerable to critical geological and hydro-meteorological hazards,

through enhancing local adaptive capacity and strengthening natural ecosystems‟ resilience to

climate change and disasters”. The NCCAP Anchor Program will run for 2.5 years focusing on

three (3) strategic priorities: (1) food security; (2) water sufficiency; and (3) human security that

include community farms and gardens, rainwater harvesting and management and the

institutionalization of CCA-DRR in Resettlement Design and Community Support System.

Down to the community level. At the local level, implementation of the action plan will be

packaged using the concept of ecologically stable and economically resilient towns or eco-towns.

Aside from increased adaptive capacity of communities and ecosystems, the tangible output of

eco-town is the local climate change action plan. The government‟s adaptation

measures will cover technical and infrastructure, governance and policy and

farming practices. The finance of the CCA is through the People Survival Fund

(PSF) which can be replenishing fund to finance adaptation activities of the local


government and communities. The PSF can be used to the following: (1) adaptation activities in

areas of water resources management, land management, agriculture and fisheries, health,

infrastructure development and natural ecosystems; (2) forecasting and early warning systems;

(3) institutional development for local governments; (4) guarantee for risk insurance needs; and

(5) community adaptation support programs. In conclusion, the CCA in the Philippines is using

the top down and bottom up approaches also it is a concerted efforts among national government

agencies and other stakeholders and lastly financing is the key element.

Sea Level Rise

Rosa T. Perez, PhD Senior Research Fellow

Manila Observatory: Quezon City, Philippines

What is sea level rise? In the future climate projection, one of the issues that are associated with

climate change and global warming is sea level rise. Sea level rise is defined as the increase in

the sea level. Sea level has risen around 130 meters since the peak of the last ice age about

18,000 years ago. Most of the rise occurred before 6,000 years ago. From 3,000 years ago to the

start of the 19th century sea level was almost constant, rising at 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr. Since 1900 the

level has risen at 1 to 3 mm/yr.; since 1992 satellite altimetry from TOPEX/Poseidon indicates a

rate of rise about 3 mm/yr. The processes that control sea level changes are climate, earth

movements and gravity and rotation. The uncertainty in the local prediction of sea level rise are

(1) global and regional component plus the land movement (e.g. land uplift will counter sea level

rise while land subsidence will exacerbate any global sea level rise), (2) lowering of land due to

natural compaction of underlying soil and sediment or by compaction sped by rapid withdrawal

of groundwater, (3) earthquake and volcanic activity, and (4) other dynamic oceanic and climatic

effects cause regional differences.

The Future World with Rising Sea Level. In the AR5 of IPCC states that the global mean sea

level will continue to rise during the 21st century and all the RCP scenarios show that the rate of

sea level rise will very likely to exceed that observed during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean

warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets. There is a mean of 53 cm

global sea level rise while low end of 36 cm and high end of 71 cm for 2081-2100 if there is a

late mitigation scenario or the RCP4.5. In RCP8.5 the mean rise is 74 cm and the range of 52-98

cm. The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from the

surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation. It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice

cover will continue to shrink and thin. Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease

during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises. Global glacier volume will

further decrease. Philippines is one of the regions vulnerable to sea level rise. The

impacts of sea level rise are as follows: (a) higher and more frequent flooding; (b)

shoreline erosion; (c) loss of wetlands and near shore coastal habitats; (d) upward


and landward migration of beaches or loss of beaches; (e) salt water intrusion in coastal

freshwater aquifers; (f) increased near-shore wave energy; (g) enhanced effects of storm surges;

(h) damage to coastal infrastructure; and (i) economic impacts. The responses to coastal change

are (a) deliberately do nothing, (b) retreat, (c) accommodation and (d) soft and hard protection.

In conclusion, sea level change is a slow process, but its effects can enhance other multiple

stressors; the Philippines, due to its geography and topography is physically vulnerable to sea

level rise; there are options available to address sea level rise.

Mapping of Vulnerability on Food Insecurity

Eulito U. Bautista, PhD National Project Manager, Philippines

AMICAF Project of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO): Quezon City, Philippines

The AMICAF Project. The AMICAF is a comprehensive framework by the Food and Agriculture

Organization (FAO) of the United Nations that aims to address climate change impacts and

adaptation planning targeted at improving the food security of vulnerable household groups and

also to address the link between Climate Change and Food Security. The AMICAF framework is

currently being implemented in the Philippines in coordination with the Department of

Agriculture that started in January of 2012 and will end on October 2014 with the funds from the

Government of Japan (GoJ). The same project was also implemented in Peru. As a result of the

project, there are 49 provinces that were classified as vulnerable to food insecurity. Out of the 49

provinces, there were 3 provinces were classified to be very, very vulnerable while 8 provinces

as very vulnerable, 38 and 10 provinces were considered vulnerable and less vulnerable

respectively. In the future climate change the following results were found: (a) the decrease in

the annual rainfall by 2030 will lead to 0.0013 increases in the probability of being food poor; (b)

similarly, the decrease in annual rainfall by 2050 will lead to increase in the probability of being

food poor by 0.44 percent; and (c) the decrease in the minimum temperature in 2030 will lead to

0.09 percent decrease in the probability of being food poor. On the other hand, the increase in the

minimum temperature in 2050 will lead to increase in the probability of being food poor by 0.3

percent.

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC said that the climate change is very, very likely due

to anthropogenic emission of greenhouse at which exceeds the recorded in ice cores for the last

800,000 years. Further, AR5 dealt with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

RCPs are four GHG concentration trajectories at which each pathway describes a future value of

radiative forcing in 2100 in the aim to provide a range of climate model responses

rather than derived from socio-economic storylines. However, the current

projection in the Philippines was still based on SRES of AR4 which had a


preliminary result on rainfall that in the entire Philippines have increasing trend in rainfall while

the lowest increase are found in the eastern Philippines and the highest increase are found in

Luzon. In terms of average temperature on the other hand, both projections (A1B and A2) show

that the entire Philippines will have increasing trend and in A1B the highest increase is found in

National Capital Region (NCR) while in A2, the highest increase is found in the urbanized

region.

Preliminary Results. With the new assessment of IPCC and the preliminary results on the climate

projections in the Philippines, the climate change adaptation and mitigation should take place to

minimize the impact of impending climate change. The Philippines‟s adaptation strategy was

mandated by Climate Change Act of 2009 and having the fund to initiate these activities is thru

another law that will finance the adaptation and mitigation project on the local community with

the use of People Survival Fund. The involvement of the community to become climate change

adaptive and resilient is very crucial since it will cater the need of the people on the ground.

Sea level rise and food insecurity are one of the highly probable impact of changing climate both

on the global and local scale. Philippines being an archipelagic country is highly vulnerable to

climate change and most of the communities live in the coastal area which is highly exposed to

the impact of sea level rise. As our environment changes due to changing climate the issue on

food insecurity became one of the outmost concerns. With the result from the AMICAF project

shows that 49 provinces in the Philippines are vulnerable to food insecurity and three (3) out of

the 49 provinces was considered as very, very vulnerable to food insecurity.






SESSION 3

“STATE-OF-THE-ART TECHNOLOGIES”


Section Editor




Session Chairperson

Vice President, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines


Jorybell A. Masallo

Session Rapporteur



Summary

The occurrence of extreme weather and climate events in the recent decade served as a

challenge to develop new technologies that will be used to mitigate the impacts and as response

mechanism in the future occurrence of these events. Recently the Philippine Weather Bureau,

PAGASA, adopt the use of Meteorological RADARs and continuously using the available

meteorological satellite. This leads to PAGASA to acquire the RAINWATCHER that it is cost

effective since it has high reliability, long life span and low maintenance cost and also had

polarimetric capability which can identify hydrometeor’s size, shape and type, identify regions

or area where there is a mixture of precipitation types such as rains and snow, be a good

indicator of high rainfall rate and reduces the impact of attenuation due to propagation through

precipitation. The continuous contribution of PAGASA to the spaced base improvement of

satellite based observation system in line with WMO Space Programme. There is a need for the

Philippines to invest more on the modern monitoring facilities to address the demand from

various stakeholders. As the technology improves the demand also increases and people should

also adapt to the improvement as we badly wanted to reach the goal.


RAINWATCHER: Polarimetric Radar Rainfall Sensor with full Solid State Technology

Engr. Jose Rolando Lamac

Chief Engineer

Engr. Vincent Gil Tuazon

Telecom Engineer

Japan Radio Company Ltd. Co.

PAGASA uses meteorological radar in monitoring and forecasting weather systems. Recently,

the Philippines is using the Doppler Radar system that has a capability to monitor not only the

amount of precipitation in the cloud but also the movement of these precipitation droplets. The

Japan Radio Company (JRC) introduces the use of solid state S-band Meteorological Radar in

the Philippines in 2011. JRC started developing the Doppler Radar sensor since 1981 and

developed the X-band Meteorological Radar in 2008 and in 2012 they introduced the

RAINWATCHER X-band Full Solid State Polarimetric Radar. JRC also supplied 18 out of the

29 radars installed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), 15 out of 56 radars installed by

the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT). Both of which are found in Japan. In

the Philippines, JRC installed three (3) solid-state radar located in Aparri, Cagayan, Virac

Catanduanes, and Guiuan, Eastern Samar.

In the coming years, JRC will provide the Mobile X-band Radar to the Philippines. The

RAINWATCHER of JRC is a polarimetric X-Band Radar System that uses Solid State Power

Amplifier (SSPA) to detect meteorological phenomena such as rain and snow within 80 km

radius. The system had (a) dual polarization and doppler function, (b) full solid state technology,

(c) compact and lightweight, (d) short time for start-up, no tuning and pre-heating required, (e)

low power consumption ≤1KVA @ 100-230VAC 1Ø, (f) minimal equipment configuration, (g)

suitable for fixed installation, mobile and transportable application, (h) high accuracy rainfall

sensor, (i) minimum observation area 150m mesh. JRC also develops its own software which

provides optimized observation data for easier meteorological analysis. The approximate weight

of the radome, antenna and pedestal is 600 kg. The RAINWATCHER also provide remote

monitoring by utilizing internet cloud where the radar task controller and meteorological product

workstation is connected via local area network (LAN) which is situated in the radar station

while the radar display workstation is situated remote from the radar station. The X-band Radar

can be used in aviation weather services, landslide monitoring, road and traffic management,

river or water management, dam discharge operation, urban flood warning system, landslide and

mud flow at volcanic area and weather information services for disaster management, mass

media, government offices for both local and national levels, public organization and academe.

On the other hand, the mobile X-band radar can be used in localize weather monitoring during

special event like Olympics and festivals, survey for the fix radar installation, fill the gap for the

blind spot of fix radar, detection of torrential rain, back-up unit for fix radar,

detection of wind burst at airport, rain gauge for dam basin during severe weather

condition and for the storm chasers. The RAINWATCHER can provide various


meteorological radar products for forecasting and warning, research and analysis. The difference

between the conventional radar and solid state radar is on the power generation or amplification.

Conventional radar uses vacuum tubes such as Magnetron, Klystron, etc. for power generation or

amplification that (1) the equipment start-up needs preheating and/or tuning, (2) high transmitter

output power, (3) high commercial power consumption, approx. 10kVA (S-Band), (4) bulky and

heavier equipment, takes time to do maintenance and (5) amplifier life-span of around 8k – 20k

hours. On the other hand, solid state radar uses RF semiconductor devices for power

amplification that (1) has quick equipment start-up, no preheating and tuning required, (2)

Effective low transmitter output power, (3) Lower commercial power consumption, approx.

8kVA (S-Band), (4) Compact and lightweight equipment, easy to maintain and amplifier life

span of around 128k hours. In summary of the comparison of conventional and solid state radar

that it is cost effective since it has high reliability, long life span and low maintenance cost and

also had polarimetric capability which can identify hydrometeor‟s size, shape and type, identify

regions or area where there is a mixture of precipitation types such as rains and snow, be a good

indicator of high rainfall rate and reduces the impact of attenuation due to propagation through

precipitation.

DOST PAGASA Meteorological Satellite Facility and Its Relevance to WMO Space

Program

Vicente Palcon Jr.5


The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Space Programme aims to promote availability

and utilization of satellite data and products for weather, climate, water and related applications

to WMO members. Also it coordinates environmental satellite matters and activities throughout

all WMO Programmes and gives guidance on potential of remote-sensing techniques in

meteorology, hydrology and related disciplines. The strategic plans of the programme prioritized

the space based sub-system of the Global Observing System (GOS) which includes operational

meteorological LEO satellites, operational meteorological geostationary satellites and

environmental research and development satellites. The Programme is moving toward WMO

Integrated GOS that can address 3 Earth-system domains (atmosphere, ocean, land) and 2 cross-

cutting themes (climate, natural disaster reduction). The GOS includes 12 operational

geostationary satellites, 6 operational sun-synchronous and R&D satellites in polar orbit. The

recently launched satellites are Megha-Tropiques (ISRO-CNES), Suomi-NPP (NOAA), FY-2F

(CMA), GCOM-W (JAXA), MSG-3 (EUMETSAT) and Metop-B (EUMETSAT). The

trends in space-based observation in terms of (a) technology: it increase in

5 Mr. Palcon is currently with the Weather Division of PAGASA-DOST.


performances and data flows , Earth Orbiting (EO) providers have more space-faring nations and

EO applications will be dominant data source of weather (NWP) & climate observation,

irreplaceable support for disaster management and potential for many other applications which

not fully realized; (b) users: it has an expanding global user community though not equally able

to access and benefit; (c) societal demand: EO services at minimum cost which demonstrate the

benefit to cost, optimize the global system and explore different business models. The 10-Year

GEOSS Implementation Plan focused on nine societal benefit areas such as natural and human-

induced disasters, environmental factors affecting human health, management of energy

resources, climate variability and change , water resource management / water cycle, improving

weather information, forecasting, and warning, terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems,

sustainable agriculture and combating desertification and biodiversity. In the Philippines,

PAGASA meteorological satellite facility includes NOAA AVHRR receiving system, MTSAT

ground receiving system, CMACast (Fengyun) receiving system, MODIS ground receiving

system and Suomi NPP Receiving System. One of the functions of PAGASA is to monitor

severe or significant weather system by using available tools and equipment such as satellite.

Satellite imagery is a powerful tool to support very-short range forecasting, including nowcasting

especially in the absence of operational radar coverage. This can be done through the provision

of near-real time products to monitor and track convective development, estimating rainfall rates,

wind speed and direction over large water surfaces, significant wave heights, water levels, sea-

surface temperature and many other parameters. Further, PAGASA aims to establish a network

of facilities ensuring enhanced and sustained provision of high-quality satellite products related

to nowcasting these are intended to cover: consistent basic nowcasting products, aviation

products, precipitation products and near-real-time ocean-surface vector winds. PAGASA also

needs to strengthen weather and climate forecasting capabilities to support disaster mitigation

activities may be supported with data and information derived from multi-spectral band imaging

instrument. The capability for environmental monitoring requires closer spatial and temporal

scales possible with multi-spectral observing system that brought to the need for modern

monitoring system for the Philippines.






SESSION 4

“CURRENT INITIATIVES RELATED TO EXTREME WEATHER AND

CLIMATE EVENTS”

Rosemarie Ann Marasigan

Section Editor



Edna L. Juanillo

Session Chairperson

Former President, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines



Session Rapporteur



Summary

For years, the effects of the extreme weather events have been exposed in the lives of the people.

The world knows how droughts, floods, typhoons, heavy rains, and even strong winds can

change the fate of their lives. However, despite of the great experiences we already had, we are

still being caught over and over again with surprise by the impacts of these catastrophic events

because of the same reasons: unawareness and unpreparedness. Because of this, the Philippine

Meteorological Society (PMS) introduced the current initiatives related to the extreme weather

and climate events. Among the focus of the session are the (1) agriculture and food security; (2)

design of structures for wind and NSCP 6th

edition 2010; and (3) comprehensive land use plan

(CLUP).

The sector that has the greatest vulnerability to the impacts of the extreme weather events is the

agriculture. It is among the sectors that are sensitive to the change of weather. As a matter of

fact, the success and failure in agriculture depends primarily to the weather. Extreme weather

events can bring threat to our national and local food security. In order for us to develop deep

understanding in dealing with this challenge, we need an organization that will directly focus on

this subject. Since the confidence of our food security generally depends on rice,

the initiatives of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in engaging to


the farmers, continuous study and developments for rice, and policy assistances are great help in

dealing with the extreme weather and climate events.

Due to the direct exposure to typhoons, there is a prominent hazards caused by strong winds

particularly at the eastern section of the country. The damages and loss of the properties were

the result of the insufficient attention to the suitable planning of the structural design and the

land use. To increase our security, we need to apply the proper constructions for strong winds.

The Association of Structural Engineers in the Philippines (ASEP) developed structural designs

for winds in order to cope with the changing climate. However, these designs would never be

effective as it supposed to be without the proper planning of land uses. Several laws have

already been enacted to incorporate adaptation and mitigation to CLUP.

Agriculture and Food Security: International Setting

Reiner Wassman, PhD

Senior Scientist, International Rice Research Institute: Laguna, Philippines

Extensive studies. IRRI started studying the effects of temperature on rice using growth chamber

technique in 1961. This one year of comprehensive study was continued only after a decade

when they performed studies on the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment on rice in open-

top chambers during 1971 to 1972. IRRI began to conduct researches and studies in 1991 on the

effects of UV-B and global climate change on rice. From that year up to 1999, they made their

broad studies on the effects of methane (CH4) emissions, temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2), and

UV-B effects and modelling. Since 2006, comprehensive program on mitigation, adaptations and

impacts assessments is being conducted in close collaboration with their national partners.

Practicality of results. In identifying the preferences of the stakeholders, IRRI is engaging the

farmers through participatory approaches to ensure realistic results. This involves the stakeholder

interaction and the participatory varietal selection.

The stakeholder interaction is the participatory selection of farmers‟ preferences and on-site

demonstration trials. It extends through farmer field school, seminars and workshops, and

training of trainers. The simple protocol for alternate wetting and drying (AWD), a controlled

irrigation that can reduce water demand and greenhouse gas emissions by eliminating methane,

is one of the applications for this approach.

To provide a venue for breeders and agronomists to learn which varieties perform

well and preferred by farmers, the participatory varietal selection is applied. This

incorporates social, economic, and gender analyses in rice breeding and involves


both men and women in the selection of new rice lines. When the improved variety of

“submarino” (flood-tolerant rice that can withstand submergence for up to two weeks) has been

released in the Philippines, IRRI used this kind of approach in their study.

Response to climate change. Mobile phone applications and yield forecast based on remote

sensing are among the tools and information that IRRI suggests in improving the response to the

changing climate.

The Climate-Informed Rice Crop and Low Emission (CIRCLE) Manager is a mobile phone

application that comprise of rice crop management and new modules. The first includes

information about nutrients, field preparation, and crop establishments while the new modules

involve greenhouse gas (GHG) emission calculator and climate-adjusted yield targets. These are

obtain site-specific information from the farmer or operator.

High resolution information on crop status in the form of rice crop maps can be used for yield

forecast. For decision-making related to food security, it is crucial to know when and where rice

is planted and harvested. Ongoing research under the Remote Sensing-based information and

insurance for Crops in emerging Economies (RIICE) project will provide even more detailed rice

crop calendars for each season. This information is capable to show rice areas and the late rice

areas. In the presentation that was shown in this session, Mr. Wassmann demonstrated that this

information has been useful in identifying the areas that were likely harvested before Typhoon

Yolanda hit Tacloban and the areas that were likely still in the field at the time of the typhoon.

Rice is highly susceptible to heat stress, particularly during the reproductive and ripening stages.

Very high temperatures during flowering stage can cause infertility while reduced grain filling

and poor milling quality can be the result during ripening. The daytime heat stress is the

maximum temperature that is greater than 35˚C for ten days during the period and the nighttime

heat stress is the minimum temperature greater than 25˚C for 15 days during the period. The

regional frequency of heat stress assess recent occurrence of heat stress instead of climate change

scenarios.

Policies. IRRI works with different stakeholders in the regional context of Southeast Asia

through policy advice. Policymakers of ASEAN and its member countries will be able to make

informed decisions on: (1) specific policy measures in the rice sector – including input subsidies,

price supports, national procurement or stocks; (2) possible adaptation option to enhance

resilience to climate variability, shocks, and progressive climate change; and (3) related policies

such as mitigation programs.


Design of Structures for Wind and NCSP 6th

Edition 2010

Engr. Carlos M. Villaraza Vice President, Association of Structural Engineers in the Philippines (ASEP)

The maximum sustained winds. The maximum sustained winds is always related to the intensity

of the tropical cyclone. Generally, it is along the eyewall. Thus, typhoons with higher maximum

sustained winds have greater damages. Among the well-known typhoons that brought great

destruction to the country are Typhoon Pablo and Typhoon Yolanda. These typhoons left the

affected areas totally devastated with a significant number of fatalities.

It is important that people are in a safe place during the passage of the tropical cyclone. Many

evacuation centers and even houses are not designed to withstand such strong winds. Thus, the

result becomes more tragic for the people living in the affected area.

Exposure Categories. In the latest edition of NSCP (National Structural Code of the Philippines)

6th

Edition of 2010 (NSCP 6e 2010), Exposure A was deleted. This category was defined from

the NSCP 5th

Edition of 2001 as large city centers with at least 50% of the buildings having a

height in excess of 21 meters. Exposure B (urban and suburban areas, wooded areas, or other

terrain with numerous closely spaced obstructions having the size of single-family dwellings or

larger) prevails in the upwind direction at a distance of at least 800 meters or twenty (20) times

the height of the building, whichever is greater. Exposure D (flat, unobstructed areas and water

surfaces; includes smooth mud flats and sat flats) prevails in the upwind direction for a distance

greater than 1500 meters or twenty (20) times the building height, which is greater. For all cases

where Exposure B or D is invalid, Exposure C is being applied. These are open terrain with

scattered obstructions having heights generally less than 9 meters. It includes flat open country,

grasslands, and all water surfaces in regions with records of extreme typhoons.

Wind Zone Map. Based from the NSCP 6th

Edition of 2010, the wind zone map of the Phillipines

are divided into three (3): Zone I (wind speed of 250 kph), Zone II (wind speed of 200 kph), and

Zone III (wind speed of 150 kph). Compared to the older edition of NSCP 5e 2001, the wind

speed for Zone III is only 125 kph. The proposed wind map divides Zone I into two (2): Zone 1A

(wind speed of 300 kph) and Zone 1B (wind speed of 250 kph). Zone III is also divided into

Zone 3A (wind speed of 150 kph) and Zone 3B (wind speed of 125 kph).


Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in the

Comprehensive Land Use Plan

Atty. Linda Malena- Hornilla

Commissioner, Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB)

What is land use? Land use is the rational and judicious approach of allocating available land

resources to different land use activities (residential, agricultural, and industrial) consistent with

the overall development vision and goal of a particular locality. It is associated with

Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP), a document embodying specific proposals for guiding

and regulating the growth and development of a city or municipality. The formulation and

updating of CLUP is a mandated function of all local government units (LGUs). Its legal

implementing tool is a zoning ordinance. Land use planning can determine the municipality‟s

susceptibility to hazards and climate change impacts, identify elements that can potentially be

affected, conduct risk and vulnerability assessments, define land use policy areas according to

level of risk and vulnerability, and select high risk areas and vulnerable sectors which need more

detailed assessment and planning.

CLUP Guidelines and Steps. Prior to the Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk

Reduction (DRR), there are twelve (12) steps to CLUP: (1) getting organized; (2) identifying

stakeholders; (3) setting the vision; (4) analyzing the situation; (5) setting the goals and

objectives; (6) establishing development and thrusts and spatial strategies; (7) preparing the land

use plan; (8) drafting the zoning ordinance; (9) conducting public hearing on the draft CLUP and

zoning ordinance; (10) reviewing, adopting, and approving the CLUP and zoning ordinance; (11)

implementing the CLUP and zoning ordinance; and (12) monitoring, reviewing, and evaluating

the CLUP and zoning ordinance.

The presentation of Atty. Hornilla was focused on the fourth step which answers „Where are we

now?‟ since the risk and suitability analysis such as the study of physical environment, existing

land use and development trends, natural hazards, ECAs/ ECPs, and preservation and

conservation areas are involved. The assessment for the demographic and sectorial studies and

projections are also considered in this process.

The CLUP Guidebooks is convenient to CCA and DRR in finding the (1) use of climate

information and projections; (2) climate indicators and relative risk or effects; (3) formulation

and implementation of risk mitigation plans, programs, projects and activities; (4) land use

policies and regulations; and (5) enforcement of comprehensive land use planning, building, and

safety standards and legislation.

HLURB initiatives in CCA and DRRM for the CLUP. The Climate Change Act of

2009 (RA No. 9729) and Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010


(RA No. 10121) integrates climate change adaptation and risk reduction in land use and

development planning through policies, actions, and tools for implementation over the long term

that will result in a reduction in vulnerabilities and hazard impacts. These also state that all the

information regarding the hazards and progression of risks that can affect a community should be

available for local planners.

The Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) has converge and partnered with CCA

and DRR for the (1) NEDA-Aus-Aid Project (integrating DRR and CCA in local development

planning and decision-making processes); (2) CC-UNDP-Aus-Aid (Project Twin Phoenix); (3)

NDRRMC-GMMA RESILIENCE Project (building community resilience and strengthening

local government capacities for recovery and disaster risk management); (4) NDRRMC-GMMA

READY Project (enhancing Greater Metro Manila Areas institutional capacities for effective

disaster and climate risk management towards sustainable development); and (5) HLURB-GIZ

eCLUP Project (enhancement of CLUP Guidelines and model zoning ordinance).

Enhanced CLUP. The Enhanced CLUP 2013 has eight (8) elements: (1) integration of CCA and

DRR; (2) adoption of the R2R framework; (3) integration of public and private land use

management; (4) integration of ancestral lands, biodiversity, cultural heritage, forestlands,

coastal and inland waters, and protected areas; (5)inclusion of green growth and urban design;

(6) inter-LGU and inter-agency arrangements; (7) precedence of spatial physical plans over other

forms of plans; and (8) linkage of CLUP to the PPFP and other plans. HLURB enhances the

CLUP Guidebooks not only to mainstream CCA and DRRM but to develop also an all-inclusive

physical plan through the integration of coastal and forest lands and other special planning areas

and concerns in the municipal land use planning. This will provide (1) guide in reviewing

existing local hazard information; (2) guide for hazard characterization; (3) data collection guide

of elements at risk; and (4) constructing a local climate change scenario.

Why involve CCA and DRR to eCLUP? Enhanced CLUP can improve the role of the CCA and

DRR. It can help them (1) prevent future development in possible areas that are highly

susceptible to hazards; (2) keep land use intensity, buildings value, and occupancy to a minimum

in areas where development cannot be prevented; (3) protect life and existing development from

losses; (4) conserve protective environmental systems; and (5) prevent future development from

creating conditions that contribute to risk.

Policy options and zoning regulations. The area is divided to five zones: (1) soft and hard

engineering approaches; (2) accommodation; (3) avoidance; (4) relocation; and (5) protection.

The soft and hard engineering demands ensuring existence of healthy habitats through

management of ecosystem integrity (soft) and employment of engineering

structures (hard). This applies to the coastal areas. In the settlement area,

accommodation recommends disaster resistant structures for essential facilities


and habitation. Avoidance means not building of future structures mainly at the agricultural land

area. Relocation entrails provisions for relocating existing structures from highly hazardous areas

and protection pertains to the security of the watershed for freshwater sources.

The area is also divided into (1) high risk zone; (2) medium risk zone; and (3) low risk zone.

Based from the policy options and regulations presented by Atty. Hornilla, each zones assigned

one evacuation area depending on the extent of the hazard such as sea level rise, storm surge and

tsunami. The low risk zone is the safest location of the evacuation area. The projected sea level

rise and erosion area, storm surge inundation area, and tsunami inundation area were also shown

in this zoning map.






SESSION 5

“Recent Development in the Field of Hydrometeorology and Other Allied Sciences”


Session Chairperson




Session Rapporteur



Summary

Extreme weather and climate events are becoming more frequent in recent years. Some of these

events include the July 2007 unconventional dry spell, Typhoon Yolanda in 2013, Habagat 2012

and 2013, and El Nino 2009-2010. Understanding these events through technological

advancements can steer proper decision and precautionary measures to reduce the possible loss

of lives and damages to properties.

One key component in this seeming understanding of hydrometeorology is development of new

technologies and practices such as high resolution weather and climate models, coastal hazard

mapping, social media platforms, ICT network, Doppler radar networks, and satellite and

remote sensing applications.

It is undeniable that ICT and advanced technologies provide us tools to mitigate if not to surpass

threats posed by disasters. Some countries are already using hard engineering structures to stop

tsunami waves while some have built mega dikes to prevent flooding. Other areas evaded

impending disasters because of good ICT network and communication platform.

This session will present technologies and scientific advancements available in the Philippines to

mitigate the effects of disasters and climate change impacts.


July 2007 Unconventional Dry Spell6

Esperanza O. Cayanan, Ph.D. President, Philippine Meteorological Society

Assistant Weather Services Chief, NCR-PAGASA Regional Services Division7

Drought or dry spell is an event associated with inadequate amount of water to fill in the

requirements for agriculture, energy, industrial and residential water, and environmental sector.

The measurement of drought or dry spell is expressed in terms of rainfall deficiency using

comparison between the observed rainfall and climatological normal in a given month. This is

referred to as percent of normal or the percentile part of observed rainfall against the average

rainfall over 30 years. The rainfall is categorize as above normal when there is greater than 120

percent normal, near normal if the percent normal is between 81-120%, below normal if the

range is in between 41-80%, and below normal if the percent normal is below 40%.

A drought is characterized by three (3) consecutive months of way below normal rainfall while

dry spell is defined as three (3) consecutive months of below normal rainfall. Low rainfall

amounts are usually recorded in the March-April-May in the Philippines, consequentially called

dry months and June-July-August-September as wet months. In this note, the July 2007 dry spell

is considered as unconventional since the dry spell happened on wet months particularly June-

July 2007. The affected areas include Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Cagayan

Valley, Central Luzon, and Metro Manila. This dry spell significantly affected the agricultural as

well as the water sectors in the Philippines. On a meteorological platform, the 2007 dry spell was

caused by the persistence of the ridge of North Pacific high pressure area towards Luzon and the

displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) to the south, which is normally

located across the country. The absence of tropical cyclone (TC) in the month of June and below

number of TC in July exacerbated the dry condition. Only one tropical cyclone entered the

Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) during July, compared to four (4) TC on the average for

the month. Massive information and education campaign was done by PAGASA to discuss and

explained this phenomenon that is very unusual.

A discussion on the effects and impacts of July 2007 Dry Spell were articulated in the paper of

Yumul et al. (2010).

1 Graciano P. Yumul Jr., Nathaniel A. Cruz, Carla B. Dimalanta, Nathaniel T. Servando, Flaviana D. Hilario. The 2007 dry spell

in Luzon (Philippines): its cause, impact and corresponding response measures. Climatic Change. June 2010, Volume 100, Issue 3-4, pp 633-644

7 Dr. Cayanan has been designated as the Officer-in-charge of PAGASA Weather Division as of this writing.

http://link.springer.com/search?facet-author=%22Graciano+P.+Yumul+Jr.%22

http://link.springer.com/search?facet-author=%22Nathaniel+A.+Cruz%22

http://link.springer.com/search?facet-author=%22Carla+B.+Dimalanta%22

http://link.springer.com/search?facet-author=%22Nathaniel+T.+Servando%22

http://link.springer.com/search?facet-author=%22Flaviana+D.+Hilario%22

http://link.springer.com/journal/10584/100/3/page/1

http://link.springer.com/journal/10584/100/3/page/1


Storm Surge and Coastal Hazard Mapping in the Philippines

Nestor B. Nimes8

Senior Weather Specialist, PAGASA: Quezon City, Philippines

One of the impacts of Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) is the loss of lives of more than 5000 people

and most of these numbers were attributed with the storm surge associated with the typhoon in

November 2013. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge were also experienced during the

passage of TY Yolanda. Storm surge is the sudden increase or abnormal rise in sea water level

associated with the passage of either tropical storm or typhoon. This is a combination of different

factors which includes push of strong winds on the water surface (wind setup), the piling up of

big waves (wave setup), the pressure setup (storm central pressure), and astronomical tide

moving towards the shore like a dome of water.

Astronomical tide is the increase in sea level due to lunar or solar tides and its effect to storm

surges is minimal. Pressure set up is the increase in seawater level due to the lower atmospheric

pressure in the interior of the tropical cyclone. Seawater rises approximately 1cm for every drop

in the atmospheric pressure. Wind set-up is the increase in seawater level due to the force of the

wind that produces currents in the surface layers of seawater. This is also a factor in shallow

areas, where seawater levels will rise pushed by the winds cannot flow out of the area as quickly

as it arrives and the effect of the wind is dominant if the depth is approximately less than 100

meters. Wave set up is the increase in the still seawater levels as result of mass transport by

breaking waves. Storm surges only happen at a landfall or passage of tropical storm or typhoon

in the locality and might be ahead, during or following the coming of strong winds from the

tropical storm or typhoon. The strong wind of a tropical cyclone is found at the right front

quadrant (RFQ) of its track. The effect of storm will depend on the following factors such as the

angle of attack, forward speed, coastal configuration, type of slope and surge effect.

In the Philippines, the storm surges can reach from 3 meters up to 10 meters high. The impact of

storm surges particularly those living in coastal area include destruction of offshore houses and

shelter, fishing vessels, loss of lives, coastal inundation, flooding in low lying areas, coastal

erosion, damage to dikes, sea walls and structures.

The people in the coastal communities are advised to take shelter to high and safe areas

whenever there is a threat of storm surge occurrence. Due to the impact of storm surge, in 2006

the READY project was conducted to do hazard mapping and assessment for effective

community-based disaster risk management that initiates the Storm Surge Hazard Mapping in the

8 For futher information on storm surge-related activities and research by PAGASA, Mr. Nestor Nimes is currently

with the Air-Sea Interaction Research Unit (ASIRU) of PAGASA-DOST


Philippines. There were 27 provinces covered by the READY project and hazard maps were

produced including the storm surge hazard maps.

Role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Social Network in Disaster

Management9

Arnel R. Manoos

Weather Facilities Specialist III, PAGASA: Quezon City, Philippines

According to United Nation Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (UN-

ESCAP), the Asia and the Pacific is the most disaster-prone region in the world. In 2011,

Tropical Storm Sendong (Washi), considered as one of the top 10 disaster in terms of number of

death, crossed the region (Annual Disaster Statistical Review, 2011.

According to the words from John D. Rockefeller “I always tried to turn every disaster into an

opportunity” we can transform these disasters into an opportunity to look back on how we can

better prepare ourselves for such eventualities”.10

It is essential to understand disaster management cycles in studying the roles of Information and

Communication Technology (ICT) in disaster management. Disaster management cycle involves

(1) mitigation, risk reduction and prevention, (2) preparedness, (3) response and (4) recovery

phases. In disaster risk reduction through risk assessment phase, ICT plays a vital role in

monitoring disaster using satellite communication and GIS tools, which can be used for drought,

flood, global warming, among others. Through early warning, ICT plays its role in disaster

preparedness by using all means of communication and latest technology such as meteorological

radar, radiosonde station, wind profiler, meteorological buoy and automatic weather stations and

utilizing the technology of integrated high performance computing system (IHPC) to process and

integrate into the high resolution numerical weather prediction model such as the Weather and

Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Also the use of telecommunications and ICT in

disseminating the warnings and forecasts to the public by using fixed and mobile telephones,

internet and email and social networking sites (SNSs) such as Twitter and Facebook. In

conclusion, ICT and the people working hand-in-hand can significantly reduce or mitigate the

losses brought by the disasters.

9 For further information on the ICT facilities and infrastructure of PAGASA-DOST, Engr. Arnel Manoos is

currently with the Engineering and Administrative Division of PAGASA-DOST 10

Reference is attributed to the presentation of Engr. Arnel Manoos of PAGASA-DOST before the Convention.


Dynamical Downscaling of Selected CMIP3 Models for Southeast Asia using the PRECIS

Regional Climate Model

Thelma A. Cinco Assistant Weather Services Chief, PAGASA: Quezon City, Philippines

A study on the dynamical downscaling of selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in Southeast Asia (ASEAN) using Providing REgional Climates for

Impact Studies (PRECIS) Regional Climate Model (RCM) aims to understand past changes in

the climate parameters of surface air temperature and rainfall for individual ASEAN countries in

order to also analyze future projections.

Climate modeling at the regional and national levels is an important decision & policy making

tool for assessing the impact of changing climate. This downscaling project was initiated because

Global Climate Models (GCMs) has coarse resolution and to capture local climate effects, finer

scale resolution models that should be used in climate studies.

RCM was used to dynamically downscale the output of GCM it also includes the atmosphere and

land surface components of the climate system (at least) and it contains representations of the

important processes within the climate system e.g. clouds, radiation, precipitation. An example

of a regional climate model is PRECIS, which can be applied to most areas at the global scale. It

can also be used to generate detailed projections of future climate. It has simple user interface to

set up and run an RCM and PRECIS provides utilities for users to manipulate RCM output.

Preliminary Results. The summary of results shows that the output surface air temperature from

the models for each individual ASEAN country was able to capture the variability of temperature

with different levels of confidence. Generally, the biases patterns of seasonal rainfall simulation

is much noisier that surface air temperature and the simulations produce moderate wet biases of

about 20-40% through the years, except over the western part of the Indo-China where the biases

are largely negative.

Large wet biases of greater than 80 percent were simulated over the Cambodia and central region

of the Borneo Island during December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM).

For the future climate projections, generally the temperature changes patterns are very similar

over the four seasons considered with slightly higher warming rate during DJF; seasonal mean

temperature increase by the middle of the century, the estimated temperature is 2-4°C warmer

than the present day and towards the end of the century with increment of 3-5°C.

The increment shows considerable spatial variations with faster rate of warming simulated over

the land area compared to the South China Sea area; unlike for temperature,

changes in rainfall show remarkable spatial and seasonal variations; the

projections show drier climate over the sea areas and wetter climate over the land.


The land-sea contrast is more obvious toward the end of the century. Drier climate is projected

over most areas during boreal winter except central Indo-China in all of the HadCM3Q driven

simulations; however, wetter climate was projected south of the equator in ECHAM5. During

June-July-August (JJA all the simulations projected wetter climate over the land area except

HadCM3Q10 with climate over the central Indo-China projected to be approximately 40% drier

compare to the baseline period. The projected changes for September-October-November (SON)

toward the end of century are very similar to that of the JJA with increasing season rainfall of 20-

40% over most of the areas that are projected to get wetter.

There is a reasonable representation of present day TCs (except for SCS in JJAS). There is a

consistent decrease in TC frequency projected, 10-23% mid-century, 32-53% by the end of the

century. A consistent increase in precipitation associated with a TC, 6-13% mid-century, and 12-

27% by the end of the century. The possible cause for the decrease in tropical circulation and

increased precipitation is due to increased water vapor content in warmer atmosphere.






PHILIPPINE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Board of Trustees & Officers

2013-2014


President


Vice- President


Business Manager

Delia T. Basco

Board of Trustee

Robert Z. Quinto

Board of Trustee

Analiza S. Solis

Board of Trustee

Jorybell A. Masallo

Board of Trustee

Adelaida C. Duran

Board of Trustee


Board of Trustee

Aniceta B. Garcia

Treasurer

Rhonalyn L. Vergara

Secretary


Assistant Secretary


PHILIPPINE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Board of Trustees & Officers

2014-2015


President


Vice- President


Business Manager

Delia T. Basco

Board of Trustee

Robert Z. Quinto

Board of Trustee

Ma. Cecilia Monteverde

Board of Trustee

Jorybell A. Masallo

Board of Trustee


Board of Trustee

Rhonalyn V. Macalalad

Board of Trustee

Aniceta B. Garcia

Treasurer

Rosemarie A. Marasigan

Secretary

Mary May Victoria Capulong

Assistant Secretary


ACKNOWLEDGMENT


SKYLAND TRAVEL & TOURS


In memoriam Dr. Susan R. Espinueva, Former PMS President and patron to the

advancement of meteorology and hydrology in the Philippines

9th Philippine Meteorological Society Convention Proceedings

Documents

Transcript of 9th Philippine Meteorological Society Convention Proceedings