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Transcript of 9 m11 results
9M11 Results
21/11/2011
Notice
This presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to the prospects of the business, estimates for
operating and financial results, and those related to growth prospects of OHL Brasil, these are merely
projections and, as such, are based exclusively on the expectations of OHL Brasil’s management concerning
the future of the business and its continued access to capital to fund the Company’s business plan.
Such forward-looking statements depend, substantially, on changes in market conditions, government
regulations, competitive pressures, the performance of the Brazilian economy and the industry and are,
therefore, subject to change without prior notice.
OHL Group
Results
Opportunities
Company Profile – OHL Group
1
4.417 km
37 km
80 hectares
2 million pass./year
TOLL ROADS
• 9
• 1 Argentina
• 3 Chile
• 6 Mexico
• 3 Spain
• 1 Peru
RAILWAYS
• 2 Spain
COMMERCIAL
PORTS
• 1 Spain
• 1 India
AIRPORTS
• 1 Mexico
MARINAS
• 4 Spain
2,431 berths
PARKING FACILITIES
• 1 Brazil
NATIONAL
CONSTRUCTION
• Civil Projects
• Buildings Construction
• Urban Services and
Infrastructures
INTERNATIONAL
CONSTRUCTION
• EUA
• México, Chile and Peru
• Central Europe
• Qatar and Argélia
CONCESSIONS
INDUSTRIAL
• Refinery
• Gas
• Petrochemical
• Energy
• Lands Movements
• Fire protection systems
ENVIRONMENTAL
• Sea and brackish water
Desalination
• Urban and Industrial
Water Purification
• Potable water treatment
DEVELOPMENTS
• Tourist Complexes
• Malls
Company Profile – Geographical Presence
2
Company Profile – OHL Group
OHL Group OHL Concesiones
3
International Group of construction, concessions and services,
listed in the Madrid Stock Exchange since 1991
Founded over 98 years ago and established in 21 countries
Portfolio of € 78 bn (9M11)
Summary of results:
Strategic position in Latin America: Brazil, México and Chile
Global operator of infrastructures: roads, ports, airports and railways
Expertise in Brazil through OHL Brasil
Broad international experience in the developing of efficient capital
structure for projects
Summary of results:
Revenue (Mn Euros) 2009 2010 9M11
OHL S.A 4,780 100% 4,910 100% 3,587 100%
Construction 3,426 72% 3,071 63% 1,972 55%
Others Activities 213 4% 330 7% 364 10%
Concessions 1,142 24% 1,509 31% 1,252 35%
EBITDA (Mn Euros) 2009 2010 9M11
OHL S.A 763 100% 1,005 100% 838 100%
Construction 310 41% 240 24% 183 22%
Others Activities 18 2% 18 2% 17 2%
Concessions 436 57% 747 74% 639 76%
Revenue (Mn Euros) 2009 2010 9M11
OHL Concesiones 1,142 100% 1,509 100% 1,252 100%
Argentina 10 1% 14 1% 11 1%
Brasil 432 38% 646 43% 555 44%
Chile 53 5% 68 4% 26 2%
Espanha 57 5% 75 5% 69 6%
México 65 6% 89 6% 81 6%
Peru 8 1% 14 1% 14 1%
Outros 518 45% 603 40% 497 40%
EBITDA (Mn Euros) 2009 2010 9M11
OHL Concesiones 436 100% 747 100% 639 100%
Argentina (3) -1% (3) 0% (4) -1%
Brasil 248 57% 356 48% 303 47%
Chile 39 9% 50 7% 20 3%
Espanha 21 5% 26 3% 45 7%
México * 133 31% 284 38% 255 40%
Peru 5 1% 8 1% 10 2%
Outros (8) -2% 27 4% 10 2%
Company Profile – Investment Criteria
4
Geographical Scope:
Strategic Countries like Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru and Spain
Selectively in other geographical areas
Level of Ownership: We favor majority holdings that confer decision-taking and control powers in
each concession.
Profitability: A 15% target in Euros, taking into account the effect of possible parity changes,
estimated as inflation differential.
Equity: Financed with cash flow put up by the Group.
Debt: Non-recourse and in local currency, free from exchange rate risk.
Company Profile – Corporate Structure
5
AUTOVIAS
FERNÃO DIAS
FLUMINENSE
PLANALTO SUL
LITORAL SUL
RÉGIS BITTENCOURT
LATINA MANUTENÇÃO
FEDERAL TOLL ROADSSTATE TOLL ROADS
CENTROVIAS
INTERVIAS
VIANORTE
OTHER BUSINESS
LATINA SINALIZAÇÃO
PAULISTA
INFRAESTRUTURA
100%
4.68%
100%
100%
100%
100%
PARTÍCIPES EN BRASIL
OHL S.A.
OHL CONCESIONES SL
100%
100%
60%
Company Profile – OHL Brasil’s Concessions
6
One of the largest companies in Brazil in the sector of
toll roads concessions in terms of kilometers under
management, with 3,226 km
OHL Brasil consolidated its participation in the main
economic axes of the country
There are approximately 35 million people living near
our highways
The states in which we operate hold more than 2/3 of
the Brazilian fleet of vehicles
Company Profile – Terms of the Concessions
Portfolio Life: The average remaining term of our concessions’ portfolio is 16.6 years.
7
Years pending Years elapsed
7 8
17
7
22 22 22 22 22
13 13 11
13 3 3 3 3 3
Portfolio – State Concessions
Description
OHL Brasil Stake 100 %
Length 1,147 km
Nº of toll plazas 23
Portfolio Average Life 9.8 years
Equiv. Vehicles – 3Q11 (mn) 48.4
Employees – 3Q11 1,335
Average Tariff – 3Q11 R$ 6.19
Estimated Invest. – (2012-2015) R$ 570 million
Net Debt – 3Q11 R$ 699 million
Notes: Net revenue without revenue from construction services.
Calculated in accordance with BR GAAP (before IFRS).
* Excl. Fixed C. Charge
Net Revenue, Margin and Adjusted EBITDA *
288
8
360 465 507 546
617 724 776
896
729
184 265 301 338 395
494 525
634
527
51.1% 57.0% 59.4% 61.9% 64.0%68.2% 67.7%
70.8% 71.4%
-10,0%
20,0%
50,0%
80,0%
110,0%
-100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 1.400 1.500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 9M11
Net Revenue (R$ mn) Adjusted EBITDA (R$ mn) * Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)
Portfolio – Federal Concessions
Description
OHL Brasil Stake 100 %
Length 2,079 km
Nº of toll plazas 29
Portfolio Average Life 22 years
Equiv. Vehicles – 3Q11 (mn) 122.8
Employees – 3Q11 2,161
Average Tariff – 3Q11 R$ 1.69
Estimated Invest. – (2012-2015) R$ 2.7 billion
Net Debt – 3Q11 R$ 925 billion
Notes: Net revenue without revenue from construction services.
Calculated in accordance with BR GAAP (before IFRS).
Net Revenue, Margin and Adjusted EBITDA
9
48
100 128 138 138 140 152
170 180 182 188
-26
25
53 61 58 60 70 79 88 88 101
25.0%
41.4%
44.2%42.0% 42.9%
46.1% 46.5%48.8% 48.3%
53,6%
0,0%
25,0%
50,0%
-50
40
130
220
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1T11 2T11 3Q11
Net Revenue (R$ mn) Adjusted EBITDA (R$ mn) Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)
OHL Group
Results
Opportunities
Macroeconomic Scenario
GDP (%) Interest rate – EoP (%)
Inflation rate (%) Exchange rate – EoP (R$)
Source: IBGE, FGV, BACEN, CETIP, Relatório Focus (07/01/2011) e BNDES
24.9
16.3 17.8 18.1
13.2 11.2
13.7
8.7 10.7
12.5 12.5 10.0 11.0
9.8 9.8
6.9 6.3 6.3 6.0
6.0 6.0 6.0
-
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
CDI TJLP
3.7 3.6 3.6
2.8 2.8 2.6
3.3
2.5 2.2
3.5
2.9 2.7
2.3 2.1
1.8
2.3
1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7
-
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
R$ / € R$ / US$
2.7
1.1
5.7
3.2
4.0
6.1
5.2
(0.6)
7.5
3.9 4.1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
25.3
8.7
12.4
1.2
3.8
7.8 9.8
(1.7)
11.3
6.0 5.0
12.5
9.3 7.6
5.7
3.1 4.5
5.9 4.3
5.9 6.2 5.1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
IGP-M IPCA
10
Traffic
11
Vehicle-Equivalents (Thousand) 9M11 9M10Var%
9M11/9M10
State Concessions 135,432.70 116,071.66 16.7%
Autovias 32,011.46 31,044.58 3.1%
Centrovias 35,278.10 19,524.92 80.7%
Intervias 43,567.20 42,231.23 3.2%
Vianorte 24,575.94 23,270.93 5.6%
Federal Concessions 359,636.87 312,239.98 15.2%
Planalto Sul 20,890.00 19,727.59 5.9%
Fluminense 34,678.68 31,295.99 10.8%
Fernão Dias 113,278.57 83,658.18 35.4%
Régis Bittencourt 106,269.41 99,651.33 6.6%
Litoral Sul 84,520.22 77,906.89 8.5%
Total 495,069.57 428,311.64 15.6%
Traffic
In the second half of 2010, four toll plazas run by Centrovias started
tolling in both directions, reducing the rate by half
The toll plazas are located at the cities of Brotas, Dois Córregos,
Itirapina and Rio Claro
In September 2010, the last toll plaza of the Fernão Dias Highway,
located in the municipality of Mairiporã, went into operation
This toll plaza represents about 21% of all traffic toll fees for utility
Centrovias Fernão Dias
Before event After event
12
-
3,0
6,0
9,0
12,0
15,0
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Centrovias (MN Equiv. Vehicles)
-
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Fernão Dias (MN Equiv. Vehicles)
Traffic
Commercial Passenger
13
Commercial vs. Passenger (%) Electronic Toll Collection (AVI)
74% 76% 75% 73% 72%77% 76% 75% 73% 76% 76%
26% 24% 25% 27% 28%23% 24% 25% 27% 24% 24%
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Federal Concessions
58%61% 62% 61% 60%
63% 63% 62% 60%62% 64%
42%39% 38% 39% 40%
37% 37% 38% 40%38% 36%
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
State Concessions
25.0%27.5%
29.6% 30.2% 31.6%
35.4%36.9% 38.1%
39.8%42.5%
44,2%
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
AVI Federal Concessions
50.7% 53.0% 53.7% 53.8% 53.9% 56.0% 56.7% 57.3% 58.0% 60.0% 61,7%
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
AVI State Concessions
Average Toll Tariff
Federal Concessions:
Tariff readjustment IPCA
fev/12E 6.4%
dez/11E 6.7%
fev/11 6.0%
dez/10 5.9%
State Concessions:
Tariff readjustment IGPM Tariff readjustment IPCA
jul/12E 5.5%
jul/11 6.6%
jul/10 5.2%
jul/12E 4.5%
jul/11 9.8%
jul/10 4.2%
Average Toll Tariff (R$ / Vehicle-Equivalents) 9M11 9M10Var%
9M11/9M10
State Concessions 5.84 6.16 -5.2%
Autovias 6.16 5.79 6.4%
Centrovias 5.57 8.95 -37.8%
Intervias 5.05 4.77 5.9%
Vianorte 7.22 6.83 5.6%
Federal Concessions 1.68 1.51 11.0%
Planalto Sul 3.10 2.90 6.9%
Fluminense 2.78 2.59 7.3%
Fernão Dias 1.30 1.10 18.2%
Régis Bittencourt 1.70 1.50 13.4%
Litoral Sul 1.36 1.19 14.0%
Total 2.82 2.77 1.6%
55 92 168
247 277 384
474
624 887
793
58.7% 57.8%
62.8% 63.4% 64.5%62.3%
65.4%
52.4%
59.2%60.5%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
-50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950
1.000 1.050 1.100 1.150 1.200 1.250 1.300 1.350
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 9M11
Adjusted EBITDA (R$ mn) ¹ Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)
-8
3 25
77 99
75
105
176
304
226
300
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 9M11
93 159
268 389 430
616 725
1.189
1.497
1.090 1.279
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 9M11
¹ Excl. fixed charge
² 2010, 9M10 and 9M11 Net Income in IFRS
645
14 Obs.: Net revenue without construction revenues
Calculated in accordance with BRGAAP (before IFRS).
100 99 105 108 111 127 142
446
596
495 428
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 9M11
OHL Brasil’s Performance
Net Revenue (R$ MN) – Excl. Construct ion Revenue Consolidated Traffic Evolution (MN Equiv. Vehicles)
Margin and Adjusted EBITDA ¹ (R$ MN) Net Income ² (R$ MN)
645
Indebtedness
15
256
408 401 407 364
194 200
91 98 106 115 125 135
63
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Gross Indebtedness (R$ MN) Leverage Ratio and Net Debt (R$ MN)
Debt Cost Breakdown (%) Debt Amortization Schedule (R$ MN)
1.158 1.197
735 947
1.784
1.186 1.281 1.234 873 908
552
267
739
922 847
37 1.287 1.223
1.554
1.882 1.862 2.411
1.425
1.936
1.657 1.794 1.822
2.474 2.504
2.789 2.754 2.770
2.963
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Total
Long Term
Short Term
1.174 1.291 1.325 1.346 1.354 1.450 1.455 1.523 1.453
1.575 1.611
2,5 2,6 2,4
2,2
1,9 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,6 1,6
(2,5)
(1,5)
(0,5)
0,5
1,5
2,5
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Net Debt Net Debt / Ajusted EBITDA - Fixed Concession Charge (last 12 months)
44,4%
42,6%
13,0%
TJLP
CDI
IPCA
44,4%
55,3%
0,3%
BNDES
Debentures
Others
Performed Investments on Federal Highways
16
Accumulated Evolution of
Performed Investments (R$ MN)
623
1.215
1.790
2.391
2008 2009 2010 9M11
+ 601
+ 575
+ 592
Main Projects in Progress
Autopista Fluminense
Duplication of 59.6 km of the BR 101/RJ between the
cities of Macaé and Campos dos Goytacazes, started in
mid-August, shortly after obtaining the construction license
from IBAMA. In this first phase, there will be an investment
of about R$ 200 million. Altogether, the project includes the
duplication of 176.6 km.
Autopista Fernão Dias
Construction of the second stage of the Betim (MG) City
Belt, by about 9 km. The connection of two ends of the
road will enable the creation of an alternative to long
distance traffic. The project foresees a total investment of
R$ 35 million. Work began in October.
17
Main Projects in Progress
Autopista Régis Bittencourt
Construction of the initial and final portions of the second
runway of the Serra do Cafezal (BR 116/SP), with 11 km
long, close to Juquitiba and Miracatu cities. Altogether,
there will be 30 km of highway that will be duplicated. The
release of the license related to the central stretch
depends on the conclusion of the analysis performed by
the environmental agency. In total, will be invested
approximately R$ 560 million in this project.
Autopista Planalto Sul
Duplication of 25 km of the BR-116 from Curitiba to
Mandirituba, started in October. There an investment of R$
62 million .
18
Federal
CAPEX
Next 5 years
R$ 3,6 bn
Today: Credit line of R$ 3.7 billion with BNDES
Until September 2011 R$ 1.3 billion had already been disbursed in 5 federal
concessions
Financing the Capex for the first 8 years
Around 69% of the Financed Capex
Grace period of 2 years
Repayment period in 12 years
Cost: TJLP + 200-300 bps margin
It will be concluded in 2011
BNDES = Brazilian Development Bank, is a federal public company, linked to the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC).
Cash generation of federal and state concessions
Additional financing through debentures in state concessions
Leverage rate below 3.5x (Net Debt/EBITDA)
R$1,7 bn
Performed / Disbursed (until Mar/2011) Not Disbursed Credit Expected Amount to be Performed
Federal
CAPEX
Next. 5 anos
R$ 3.6 bn
R$1.7 bi
Federal
CAPEX
Next 5 years
R$ 3.5 bn
R$ 1 bn
BN
DE
S1
O
HL
R$ 2 bn
R$ 0.9 bn
R$ 1,0 bn
R$ 0.5 bn
Financing Plan for Federal Concessions
R$ 1.9 bn
16
Panorama of loans with BNDES
20
Planalto Sul Fluminense Fernão Dias Régis Bittencourt Litoral Sul Total
Current contract Long Term Bridge Loan Long Term Long Term Long Term -
Signature of the current contract mar/11 aug/09 jul/11 jan/10 jul/11 -
Expiration date of current contract 12/15/2025 12/15/2011 03/15/2026 12/15/2024 07/15/2026 -
Principal amount taken up to 9/302011 (R$
MM)162 143 350 422 208 1,285
Limit long-term credit - contracted /
expected (R$ MM)331 781 703 1,069 810 3,694
Fundable% on CAPEX 68% 66% 70% 65% 68% 68%
Forecasting loan signing long-term Signed dec/11 Signed Signed Signed -
Current phase of the long-term loan SignedApproved by the
board of BNDESSigned Signed Signed -
OHL Group
Results
Opportunities
Coverage: 475.9 km (BA-698 – ES, km 458.4)
Terms of Concession: 25 years
Conditions: the lowest tariff
Investments: about R$ 2,35 billion (R$ 893 million in the first five years)
Operation Costs (25 years): R$ 1,64 billion
Toll Plazas: 7
Toll Tariff: R$ 6.80 per 100 Km
Estimated Revenue (25 years): R$ 6,7 billion
Federal Government – BR 101/ES/BA
Source: ANTT - Jan/2010
New Opportunities
20
Coverage: 817 km (BR-393 RJ – BR-116 BA)
Terms of Concession: 25 years
Conditions: the lowest tariff
Investments: about R$ 3,55 billion (R$ 870 million in the
first five years)
Operation Costs (25 years): R$ 1,73 billion
Toll Plazas: 8
Toll Tariff: R$ 4.80 per 100 Km
Estimated Revenue (25 years): R$ 8,51 billion
Source: ANTT - Jan/2007
Federal Government – BR-116/MG
New Opportunities
22
Coverage: 937 km (Federal District – Juiz de Fora)
Terms of Concession: 25 years
Conditions: the lowest tariff
Investments: about R$ 2,77 billion (R$ 1,29 billion in the
first five years)
Operation Costs (25 years): 2,02 billion
Toll Plazas: 12
Toll Tariff: R$ 3.43 per 100 Km
Estimated Revenue (25 years): R$ 8,76 billion
Source: ANTT - Jan/2007
Federal Government – BR-040 (DF/GO/MG)
New Opportunities
21
New Opportunities
Tamoios Highway (SP-099)
24
R$ 110 MM
(2% Gross Revenue)
R$ 808 MM
(5% Gross Revenue)
R$ 18,686 MM
R$ 16,169 MM
R$ 5,489 MM
PV: R$ 2,212 MM
Total: R$ 3,535 MM
PV: R$ 6,274 MM
Total: R$ 11,489 MM
New Opportunities – Airports (summary of modeling results)
17
NPV Project ¹ (minimum value of the auction, to
be recognized to the FNAC
during the contract)
Investments ²
Revenues ³
Variable Contribution ³
(to be recognized to the FNAC
during the contract)
R$ 2,293 MM
R$ 521 MM
R$ 75 MM
PV: R$ 4,771 MM
Total: R$ 6,241 MM
R$ 1,866 MM
(10% Gross Revenue)
Guarulhos Viracopos Brasília
Note: Values correspond to 100% of the concession.
1. NPV discounted at the rate (real WACC) of 6.46%. Amount to be paid by the Concessionaire - SPE consists of the successful Bidder (51%) and Infraero (49%).
2. PV discounted at the rate (real WACC) of 6.46%. Total amount already includes the effect of REIDI and maintenance investments.
3. PV discounted at the rate (real WACC) of 6.46%. Amount to be paid by the Concessionaire - SPE consists of the successful Bidder (51%) and Infraero (49%).
New Opportunities – Airports (model assumptions)
18
Projected Demand
Macro Economic
Assumptions
Tariff Structure
Variable Contribution
Concession Term
GDP Growth (until 2014): LDO ¹
Rate decreasing income elasticity of demand at 0.25% p.a.
WACC = 6.46% real
Model in real terms – without inflation
Connection Tariff: R$ 7.00 (domestic and international)
Incorporation of ATAERO: 20.75%
Viracopos’s tariff adjusted to Category 1
Payment to be made by the Concessionaire during the contract for the
National Fund for Civil Aviation (FNAC) to the investments in other airports
Guarulhos: 10% Gross Revenue
Viracopos: 5% Gross Revenue
Brasília: 2% Gross Revenue
Guarulhos: 20 years
Viracopos: 30 years
Brasília: 25 years
¹ Lei de Diretrizes Orçamentárias (Budget Guidelines Law
Alessandro Scotoni Levy
IR Officer
R. Joaquim Floriano, 913 – 5º andar
Itaim Bibi – São Paulo – SP
CEP 04534-013
Tel: +55 11 3074-2410
Visit our website:
www.ohlbrasil.com.br/ir