ShakeCast: A Tool for Raising Situational Awareness in Emergency Response; Application to Building Facilities 2014 SCOTSEM National Peer-to-Peer Exchange and Best Practices Summit, San Diego, CA October 30, 2014 Loren Turner, P.E. Caltrans, Division of Research, Innovation, and System Information loren.turner@dot.ca.gov

What is ShakeCast? • Open-source web application. • Retrieves measured shaking data within

minutes after an earthquake. • Compares spatial shaking distribution with

unique bridge vulnerabilities. • Generates hierarchical lists and maps of

bridges most likely impacted. • Sends notifications to responders within

10 minutes following the event. • Developed by the USGS in 2003. • Caltrans-USGS work resulted in ShakeCast

v2 in 2008, and has since been adopted by others.

• ShakeCast v3 to be released in 2014.

How it Works

ShakeMap provides distribution of ground shaking (5-10 min)

Earthquake occurs, magnitude and epicenter identified (1 min)

ShakeCast determines the bridges that fall in the regions of strong shaking.

ShakeCast identifies the bridges that are more likely to have damage due to the critical combination of damaging shaking levels and greater vulnerability. (10 min)

First responders can be directed to the “higher priority” areas first.

Role of ShakeCast in Response • Raises situational awareness after an earthquake. • Represents the most reliable information within

the first minutes to hours following an event.

Basis for ShakeCast Analysis At each bridge location, ShakeCast analyzes the measured/interpolated ground motion against a pre-determined bridge fragility model.

Earthquake shaking forces exerted on bridges are determined from USGS ShakeMap.

Probabilities of damage relative to varying levels of shaking (or “fragility”) can be determined in advance for each bridge.

…because magnitude and epicenter alone aren’t enough to determine the area of strong ground shaking.

Why use ShakeMap?

ShakeMap provides the best estimate of the distribution of ground shaking using the CISN sensor network.

Low Priority for Inspection

Medium-High Priority for Inspection

Bridges that may appear similar can have very different performance characteristics under the same ground shaking conditions.

Why use ShakeCast?

ShakeCast alerts responders to the those bridges more likely to be impacted within the regions of strong shaking.

Why use ShakeCast?

Bridge Fragility Modeling

• We observe that some types of bridges perform better than others for a given ground motion. Examples: – Post-1991 designs perform better than pre-1971 – Short, single-span bridges have performed well in past earthquakes – Bridges with no skew perform better than those with higher skew

• A fragility model captures these differences in a probabilistic framework.

50% probability of exceedance

Minimum “trigger floor”

ShakeCast Products ShakeCast generates many products (typically within 10-15 minutes of an event) that meet the varying needs of Caltrans responders and managers. These include:

• Email notifications containing bridge inspection prioritization lists.

• A ShakeCast website with detailed information about the event and bridges

• KML files for use in Google Earth viewers. • GIS shapefiles, image files, Excel files.

Links in the Email

Username: “guest” Password: “guest”

The GoogleEarth interface provides tools to “fly through” the earthquake zone and get a better perspective on the event and the impacts to the highway infrastructure.

• The Department has hundreds of current subscribers to ShakeCast notifications all levels throughout the organization. – District Maintenance and Construction staff – Traffic Management Centers (TMC) – District and Headquarters Emergency Operation Centers (EOC) – Structure Maintenance & Investigations – Executive Management – Public Affairs

• The use of ShakeCast notifications has been integrated into formal Caltrans response protocols.

Caltrans-ShakeCast Usage

• Sign up to receive email/text/paging/tweet alerts: – USGS Earthquake Notification Service (ENS)

• https://sslearthquake.usgs.gov/ens/ • Support for work and/or personal devices

– Social Media and feeds • USGS Tweet Earthquake Dispatch: @USGSted • RSS: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/rss.xml • Atom: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/feed/v1.0/atom.php

– ShakeCast • Contact: loren.turner@dot.ca.gov • Individual or group emails

• Get familiar with the suite of earthquake products available online.

Do you or your staff have an emergency response role after earthquakes?

5.4 Chino Hills July 2008

ShakeCast identified the only bridge damaged in this event as the 3rd highest priority for inspection.

7.2 Calexico April 2010

ShakeCast identified the only bridge damaged in this event as the top priority for inspection.

6.0 Napa August 2014

ShakeCast identified the 9 bridges that sustained minor damage. They were in the top 40% of a list of 87 total. Over 2700 state bridges were in the ShakeMap region.

Napa Earthquake & ShakeCast v3 • The operational ShakeCast v2 system analyzed State Bridges. • The beta ShakeCast v3 system analyzed State & Local Bridges as well as

Caltrans Buildings.

ShakeCast v2

ShakeCast v3

Caltrans Building Inventory

Traffic Management Center (5)

Maintenance Station (262) Weigh/Inspection Station (142)

Equipment Shop (14)

District Office (42)

Toll Plaza (7)

380 Caltrans locations statewide, each having many types of building structures onsite.

Building Fragility Models

• Building vulnerability models (or “fragilites”) are based on methods published in the HAZUS-MH MR3 Technical Manual.

Define building class Develop structural model; apply suite of ground motions

Determine system fragility

1 2 3

86 Caltrans building sites were identified by ShakeCast v3 within the shaking region.

Inspection of Caltrans Facilities Following the Napa Earthquake • 20 Caltrans building facilities were inspected,

comprised of a total of 69 building structures. • All structures at each site were inspected for damage

by the Caltrans Office of Transportation Architecture. • Two buildings at the Vallejo Maintenance Station

appear to have damage due to the earthquake.

Vallejo Maintenance Station Damage

Next Steps…

• More comprehensive information about the type and condition of Caltrans building inventory is needed in order to develop fragility models.

• Once fully deployed, ShakeCast v3 will help inform decision-makers on the potential impacts to Caltrans building facilities.

• The Office of Transportation Architecture and the Office of Emergency Management are developing protocols for post-earthquake inspection of Caltrans buildings (similar to bridge).

• SAP responders will likely play a key role in this.