Urban growth rates

Historical perspective

• The industrial revolution was linked to high levels of urban growth in UK.

• UK was in a period of economic growth and was the world’s superpower.

• Even so this urban growth caused problems; housing, disease, sanitation, social problems, provision of public services, pollution.

• These problems were addressed by the government and private enterprise.

There has been examples of more recent rapid urban growth in MEDCs.

Japan has been rich enough to invest in the provision of urban services and the development of infrastructure to cope with this growth. Also the population of Tokyo have in general had enough private disposable income to address their needs.

Latin America city growth 1950 1990

City 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Bogotá 647,429 1,682,667 2,892,668 4,122,978 4,851,000

Buenos Aires 4,622,959 6,739,045 8,314,341 9,723,966 10,886,163

Caracas 683,659 1,346,708 2,174,759 2,641,844 2,989,601

Lima 645,172 1,845,910 3,302,523 4,608,010 6,422,875

Mexico City 3,145,351 5,173,549 8,900,513 13,811,946 15,047,685

Rio de Janeiro

2,885,165 4,392,067 6,685,703 8,619,559 9,600,528a

Santiago 1,509,169 2,133,252 2,871,060 3,937,277 4,676,174a

São Paulo 2,333,346 4,005,631 7,866,659 12,183,634 15,183,612a

Population of Latin American cities 1950 - 1990

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Bogotá

Buenos Aires

Caracas

Lima

Mexico City

Rio de Janeiro

Santiago

São Paulo

Lagos - Nigeria

• 1950 - 290,000

• 2010 – over 20 million

Over the past 50 years, the country’s urban population has increased more than seven-fold, from 72 million in 1952 to 540 million in 2004. Demographers project that if urbanization continues at the rate of 1 percent annually, an estimated 900 million Chinese will live in cities by 2020.

China’s urban population

TO BE MEGA-CITIES IN 2015 Country Urban agglomeration 1950 1975 2000 2015 Japan............................ Tokyo 6 920 19 771 26 444 27 190 Bangladesh .................. Dhaka 417 2 173 12 519 22 766India ............................ Mumbai (Bombay) 2 981 7 347 16 086 22 577Brazil........................... São Paulo 2 528 10 333 17 962 21 229India ............................ Delhi 1 391 4 426 12 441 20 884Mexico......................... Mexico City 2 883 10 691 18 066 20 434 United States ............... New York 12 339 15 880 16 732 17 944Indonesia ..................... Jakarta 1 452 4 814 11 018 17 268India ............................ Calcutta 4 446 7 888 13 058 16 747Pakistan ....................... Karachi 1 028 3 990 10 032 16 197Nigeria......................... Lagos 288 1 890 8 665 15 966 United States ............... Los Angeles 4 046 8 926 13 213 14 494China ........................... Shanghai 5 333 11 443 12 887 13 598 Argentina..................... Buenos Aires 5 042 9 144 12 024 13 185Philippines................... Metro Manila 1 544 5 000 9 950 12 579 China ........................... Beijing 3 913 8 545 10 839 11 671Brazil........................... Rio de Janeiro 2 965 7 963 10 652 11 543Egypt ........................... Cairo 2 410 6 079 9 462 11 531Turkey ......................... Istanbul 1 077 3 601 8 953 11 362Japan............................ Osaka 4 147 9 844 11 013 11 013China ........................... Tianjin 2 374 6 160 9 156 10 319

Urban growth in LEDC’s and NICs

The highest levels of urban growth are in LEDC’s and NIC’s because of high natural increase and rural to urban migration.

Don’t forget there are many large cities in the world of over 2 or 3 million inhabitants. Don’t just think, mega cities.

These cities face the same problems that cities in the UK faced in the nineteenth century. BUT they are not in the same position that the UK was to face the challenge.

Urban growth has to be seen within the contemporary geopolitical and economic context.

•Scale of the challenge •Resources available•Terms of trade•Levels of economic growth •External debts•IMF/World Bank restrictions on public spending•Competition•Corruption and political indifference•Polarisation of society•Levels of pollution and resource use

So what’s the point of all this…?

This whole process of urbanisation and urban growth is a sum of millions of people’s individual decisions, aspirations, hopes and desire to provide for their loved ones. As the governments are unable to provide solutions, then these individuals, faced with these problems are struggling to find their own solutions.This is why the informal sector plays such a vital role in the process of urban growth we are witnessing now in the world.

Is it possible that spontaneous settlements, shanty towns, bustees, favelas, slums are part of the solution?

Or perhaps is it true that they are a potent symbol of the failure of society to address the basic needs of the majority and it must be the responsibility of the public sector to provide housing for its citizens?

LEDC City Case Study

• Location and morphology of city

• Describe and explain its growth

• Problems associated with its growth

• Particularly the problems of the urban poor

• Responses to those problems

• Trends and predictions

• Your assessment and conclusion

Choices of Case Study

• www.urban-age.net

• Mumbai, Johannesburg, Shanghai, Mexico City, Sao Paulo.

• Or if you want more of a challenge try Lagos or Dhaka.

Background reading

• Little book – page 78-87

• Nagle – 289-297 (Cairo)

• Hart – page 212-246 (Mexico and Beijing)

• Landmark – 219-225 (Shanghai)

• Planet Geog – 252 (Shanghai)

• Changing Environments – 245-252 / 267-277 (Mumbai)