8 pouillot dwy 2012_moscow_last

Copyright © IDATE 2012

DigiWorld Yearbook 2012 12th edition

Presentation Moscow – Oct. 4, 2012


Introduction • DigiWorld Institute: who are we?

The DigiWorld in 2012 • Geographic and sectorial trends • The Game Changers

Telcos faced with the CAPEX challenge • Huge amounts of money to be spent in NGA deployments • Network sharing can help

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Agenda

IDATE, DigiWorld, DigiWorld Institute and DigiWorld Yearbook are international trademarks of IDATE

All rights reserved. None of the contents of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form, including electronically, without the prior written permission of DigiWorld Institute by IDATE.


DigiWorld Institute Who we are


From IDATE to DigiWorld Institute? Founded in 1977, IDATE has gained a reputation as a leader in tracking telecom, Internet and media markets, thanks to the skills of our teams of specialized analysts. Now, with the support of close to 40 member companies – which include many of the digital economy’s most influential players – the newly rebranded DigiWorld Institute has entered into a new stage of its development, structured around three main areas of activity:

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• Time-tested analysis and consultancy Our expertise and client list > Consulting

• An independent observatory

Our catalogue of reports > Research

• A European forum open on the world Our annual programme > DigiWorld Institute

IDATE Consulting

IDATE Research

DigiWorld Institute

Business units

Telecoms Strategies Internet TV & digital Content

Regional development

http://www.idate.org/en/Consulting/Assignments/Our-Assignments_67_.html

http://www.idate.org/en/Research-store/

http://www.idate.org/en/Forum/Presentation_29_.html


Where we stand in the marketplace

#1 think tank on the digital economy in Europe

Top-tier consultancy and policy advisory for governments and local authorities

#1 catalogue of independent market reports in Europe


Annual program for the DigiWorld Institute

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DigiWorld Clubs

DigiWorld Events

DigiWorld Collaborative Research

DigiWorld Publishing

Club in Paris (monthly)

Club in London

(monthly)

Club in Brussels

(monthly)

3 conferences in Paris

Transatlantic Dialogue

(Columbia University)

DigiWorld Summit 2012

Catalogue of market studies

DigiWorld Economic Journal

(Communications & Strategies)

DigiWorld Yearbook

Content Cloud distribution

Next Gen Access & Networks

Smart & Digital City


DigiWorld Yearbook

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The 2012 report, available in French and English, is presented in Paris, Brussels, London and, for the first time this year, in Casablanca and in Moscow.

An iPad version is available in association with:


The DigiWorld Yearbook is published with the support of DigiWorld Institute members


The DigiWorld in 2012 Geographic and sectorial trends


A 3,069-billion market in 2011, with a 4.3% growth

• 3 percentage points lower than global GDP growth

• 2.7% increase in the U.S., less than 1% in Europe

• Emerging markets remain the most dynamic markets ... still developed markets weigh more than 2/3 of total world sales

Digiworld markets by region


North America still leading… but Asia and the Pacific are rising

Distribution of DigiWorld markets by region, 2011

Contribution to market growth by region

Source: IDATE


After the 2010 recovery, moderate growth in 2011 ; very contrasted by sector

• Strong growth in the equipment market (8% for telecom, 7% for IT) except for consumer electronics

• Lower growth in services, from 3% for telecoms to 5% for TV

Global Digiworld market by sector


Growth driven by equipment (except for CE)... but a services market still highly dominant

Global DigiWorld market growth by sector

Breakdown of global DigiWorld markets by sector, in 2011

Source: IDATE


The DigiWorld trends: New Internet markets versus traditional markets services

Note: 2011 market figures for EU-27 Source: IDATE

Growth rate

2010-2011

Market size 2011 Billion Euro

0 to -3%

0 to +10%

+10 to 20%

+20 to 50%

+50 to 70%

+100%

0 to 1 1 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 100 +100

eBook (0.5 Bn, +280%)

Online Video (1.4 Bn, +63%)

Music (0.8 Bn, +13%)

Mobile Apps (1 Bn, +42%)

Social Networks (1.3 Bn, +53%)

M2M (1.5 Bn, +17%)

Online Gaming (3.5 Bn, +25%)

Cloud (7.4 Bn, +30%)

Search (8 Bn, +15%)

TV services (77 Bn, +2.6%)

eCommerce (244 Bn, +15%)

Software & IT services (217 Bn, +2.3%)

Telecoms services (248 Bn, -1.9%)

Traditional markets Internet markets


The DigiWorld in 2012 The Game Changers


1. Will the devices be king?

OS and mobiles

Source: IDATE


Fixed-Mobile LTE

Smartphones-Tabs

Network management-DPI-Policy Control-Charging iCloud/Google Drive/DropBox

IaaS/PaaS/SaaS

eAdvertising-Profiling

Streaming Smart City

2. The Game Changers

Big Data Data in Motion

Services in the cloud

Mobility everywhere Facebook Mobile

NFC-Mobile banking

Multiscreen

TV everywhere

Analytics

Open Data

A new stage for the Internet and digital economy, driven by a combination of Mobile, Cloud and Big Data ...

Source: IDATE

Copyright © IDATE 2012 18

3. The Internet Giants’ Business Models

Source: IDATE


4. Troubled times for telecoms in Europe

Source: IDATE

Annual growth of the mobile services market in Europe (EU-27) and the U.S.


5. But still room for growth in Russia (1)

Growth of the telecom services market in Russia (€ billion).

Telecom service revenues x6 over the last 10 years… … with mobile services accounting for 60% of total

Source: IDATE



Source: IDATE

Subscriber growth in Russia (millions)

Subscriber bases have expanded very rapidly, notably in mobile…

… and should continue to expand, notably in broadband



Source: IDATE

4 Russian groups in the world top 50 telcos in 2011

World top telcos in 2011 Rank Company Country 2011 sales (billion €)

1 NTT Japan 94 6242 AT&T USA 91 0763 Verizon USA 79 6864 Telefonica Spain 62 8375 China Mobile China 58 7286 Deutsche Telekom Germany 58 6537 Vodafone UK 53 5478 France Telecom France 45 2779 America Movil Mexico 38 480

10 KDDI Japan 32 168… … … …19 Vimpelcom Russia 14 562… … … …35 MTS Russia 8 853… … … …40 Rostelecom Russia 7 241

47 MegaFon Russia 5 934… … … …


Telcos facing the CAPEX challenge Huge amounts of money to be spent in NGA deployments


Clear need for telcos to invest in NGN

Source: Telecom Italia

Traffic growing but not revenue…

• Growing traffic due to increasing demand for video services

• Operators need investments up to build high capacity networks

… and carriers have limited cash for spending in costly FTTH and LTE infrastructure deployments

Gap between revenue and traffic growth

Innovative financing models required • Self-financing by staggering new network deployments • Sharing the network partly or entirely with one or more operators • Developing open access network and public-private partnership models • Outsourcing network operations to equipment vendors to lower costs


Telcos facing the CAPEX challenge Network sharing can help


Network sharing an economic imperative for telcos

Source: France Telecom/Deutsche Telekom

Network sharing between two or more operators naturally affects infrastructure costs, depending on the degree of cooperation between them, by sharing:

• Passive elements: masts, sites… the more sites that are shared, the greater the savings

• Or active elements such as antennas (mobile) or OLT for FTTx networks

Procurement process between France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom

New sharing model involves joint network equipment procurement, as with Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom (April 2011)

• DT expects to thereby save €900 million over three years and FT €400 million


Open access network becoming a business reference model (1)

An open access network involves the separation of physical network access and supply of services, in the form of:

• Operator-operator relationship between private players. The network is built and managed by an operator while services to end users are delivered by one or several ISPs. This allows local ISPs to have access to the end market without significant capital outlays;

• Private-public partnerships (PPP) are the most popular model. One party – generally a public entity – assumes the financial burden while the other party is responsible for the technical and operational aspects.

Source: IDATE

Functional layers in an open access network


Open access network becoming a business reference model (2)

Open access networks are especially well suited to rural areas where Internet service providers cannot obtain a rapid and sufficient return on their investment due to the high cost of fibre rollouts

Country/programme National investment (billion €)

Per capita spending (€)

Type of financing

Australia/ NBN

30 1,429 Construction of a national open access network

Singapore/ NGN National BB Network

0.56 125 Construction of a national open access network

France/ National ultra-fast broadband plan

2 33 Subsidy, following a local call for proposal

USA/ BB Stimulus

5.6 (only part of which is for FTTH)

Less than 18 Subsidy, following a local call for proposals

Source: IDATE

Main PPP for FTTH deployments around the world


Thank you! Join us on: Didier POUILLOT

Head of Telecom Strategy BU +33 (0)4 67 14 44 18 +33 (0)6 70 70 85 86 [email protected]

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