8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman The Economics of Growth, Sprawl and Land Use Decisions Jeffrey H. Dorfman...
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Transcript of 8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman The Economics of Growth, Sprawl and Land Use Decisions Jeffrey H. Dorfman...
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
The Economics of Growth, Sprawl and Land Use Decisions
Jeffrey H. Dorfman
The University of Georgia
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Some Economic Growth Facts
Farm Lands and Green Space The Impact of Development Types Southeastern US Results Jobs and Housing Break-even Home Values The Effect of Development Patterns
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Economic Benefits of Farm and Forest Lands
These lands produce valuable products for consumers, generate jobs and tax revenues 1/6 of all jobs and gross state
product in GA
These lands attract businesses and families
These lands also provide a net surplus to local government finances
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Economic Benefits of Green Space
Green spaces increase property values of surrounding land
Green and open spaces can provide environmental amenities for free
If green spaces contribute to quality of life, you attract people and jobs to community
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Development by Type Many counties and cities think
that growth and development mean an increasing tax base and better financial health for the local government.
Unfortunately a growing tax base is not enough to guarantee financial health, you must get revenue to grow faster than expenditures.
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Some Southeastern US ResultsRevenue:Expenditure Ratios
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Resid. Comm. Farm/for.
Oconee
Hall
Thomas
Carroll
Jones
Cherokee
Union (NC)
Leon (FL)
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Jobs, Commuting, and Home 31% if workers in Rural South
work in a different county than where they live.
52% of employment growth in metro areas was from in-commuters.
27% of employment growth in rural areas was from in-commuters.
jobs ≠ housing growth
Source: Mitch Renkow, NC State
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Break-even Home Values
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
County
1 kid
2 kids
3 kids
1000 $
JonesCarrollCherokee
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Development Patterns Development patterns have an impact
on the cost of service delivery: sprawl is expensive to service.
The same growth done more densely and contiguously saves both money, farmland, and provides environmental amenities.
New Jersey, South Carolina, California studies
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
How to Change the Numbers Cost of service goes down by 50% of
land savings (use half the land, save 25%).
Avoid leapfrog development. Build where infrastructure already
exists (infill is much cheaper than extensive growth).
Multifamily is less expensive per unit until density gets very high.
Design so service costs are low. No unnecessary minimum lot sizes.
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Breakeven Value Ranges
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Town Schools
$100
0's
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Breakeven by Density, Location This city has average
density of just < 1 per acre
Can model density and location of housing
2 acre lot, edge of town
1/3 acre, midtown Multifamily, in town
285
173
8042
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
$100
0
Breakeven Value
Large Lot Baseline
Small Lot Multifamily
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Manufactured Housing
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
Dollars of Revenue per $1 of Service Cost
Colquitt
Grady
Hall
Mitchell
Thomas
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Land Preservation Conflicts
Density vs Land Preservation Housing and Farming: Can They Mix?
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Density and Rural Character
To preserve rural character, need very low density.
Houses on 2 acre lots will be < 100 yds apart.
Population growth is exogenous, so lower density = more land developed.
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Can Housing and Farming Mix? To preserve commercial
agriculture, you must keep residential development out.
Neighbors demand changes in production practices that increase costs.
Loss of farming in an area drives local suppliers out of business.
Shrinking local production hurts local marketing.
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Possible Government Tools Zoning Standards Impact fees Incentives (time, approval,
differential fees) TDRs PDRs Time Infrastructure
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Balanced Growth a Must The real conclusion is
Local governments must ensure balanced growth, as sprawling residential growth is a certain ticket to fiscal ruin*.
* Or at least big tax increases.
8 2008, Jeffrey Dorfman
Other Resources To see similar slides to those
printed here and other graphs, reports, and resources on the economics of growth and land use, you can use the web at:
landuse.uga.edu