7497944 COG Analysis in Business Planning

7/31/2019 7497944 COG Analysis in Business Planning

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Attacking the

Centre of Gravity

Military Approachto

Business Planning

Graeme Davis [email protected]

13 Aug 2003


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Mission

My mission here today is to overview the

Military Appreciation Process (MAP) in

order to assist you improve yourbusiness planning.

Appreciation - estimation, judgementConcise Oxford


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References

Any good book storeCNN/FoxSun Tzu - The Art of War

Clausewitz - On Warwww.dodccrp.org/ActivitiesAustralian Infantry Magazine - April 2003Moving Mountains - LTGEN Gus Pagonis

Front Line Logistics - Supply Chain Review


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COMBINED AND JOINT

[No BSU is an Island]


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The nicest thing about not planning is

that failure comes as a complete

surprise thus avoiding months ofworry and angst.


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Some New Jargon Asymmetric Warfare

Attritionist Centre of Gravity

Commanders Intent

Critical Vulnerability Decisive Events

Directive Control

End State

Lines of Operation MAP

Mission

Situational Awareness SMEAC

SNAFU


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Situational AwarenessEye on the Ball, Finger on the

Pulse

You must live and breath

the Situation, plan within it,and then, as changes occur,

review and modify the

Plan as appropriate.


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GLOBAL

POLITICS

MEDIA PRODUCT

CLIMATE

COMPETITOR

PERSONNEL

RESOURCES

ECONOMY

CULTURE

&

RELIGION

LEGAL

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS


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Failures that plunged

UK operations into crisis

AMP chief executive Andrew Mohl

thought he understood the depth of theproblems in the UK operations ..

AFR 3 May 03


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Situational Awareness is not enoughTo achieve the Mission you must have a Plan

Military planning previously only went to H-Hour.

Now it plans toEnd State.


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Individual - Field Commander

MILITARY APPRECIATION PROCESS

Staff- Headquarters

Joint - Army/Navy/Air Force


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Intelligence

Personnel (HR)

Current Operations

Logistics

Future Operations

Communications

Civil Affairs

Public Relations

Training

Health

Legal

Chaplain

FinanceDiscipline

HQ STAFF


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Military Appreciation Process

Courses ofAction

Mission

A B

Analysis (eg Wargame)

C

Decision(Best/Modified)

Detailed Plans

Prepared

Review&

Confirm

Commanders

Intent

Execution

PurposeMethodEnd State


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Centre of Gravity

That characteristic, capability or localityfrom which a force, or nation derives

its freedom of action,strength or

will to fight

Could include weapons (eg tanks,

cargo ships, air force, satellites),

leadership (eg Churchill, Gandhi) or

national resolve (eg Viet Cong)

Both Blue and Red forces have a COG


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Corporate

Centre of Gravity What is your competitive strength ?

What worries you about your competitor ?

Could include;

key personnel (sales, IT, production)

faster and less expensive equipment

multiple sites

prepared to accept reduced margin

friendly banker


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Commanders Intent

The Commander (Board/CEO) has a vision of wherethe force (business) will be in x weeks/months/years.

The vision is expressed as Purpose, Method and End

State.

For the military it could be capture of City Y.

For a business it could be to capture 30% of the widget

market from competitor Z by designing a faster and

cheaper widget.

Commanders Intent leads to preparation of the Mission

Statement.

Mi i St t t


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Mission StatementWho, What, Where, When, Why

but not How!! Your mission Mr Phelps is to

Military - B Company is to clear Hill 123

by 1500 hours 14 August in order to protectthe right flank of the Battalion advance.

Corporate - The Marketing Department is

to prepare and execute a plan that willincrease revenue from Product AA by 15%

in order for XYZ Ltd to achieve its 30 June

profit projections.


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Critical Vulnerabilities

Determine where the Red Force is vulnerableand then attack that point.

Military example 1: The Afrika Corps had

mobility, tanks and air superiority but relied onsupplies (eg fuel) coming from Europe. The

supply chain was critical in achieving

Rommels Mission but it was vulnerable to

attack.

Military example 2 : Night Vision Goggles

enable 24 x 7 combat. Blue Force has the

advantage if Red Force does not have them.


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Corporate Vulnerabilities

Through situational awareness you identifiedyour competitors COG and where he is

vulnerable.

Vulnerabilities could include:dissatisfied key personnel (poaching)

major clients who would transfer their business

negative cashflow/profitability (sustainability)shareholders - are they happy with the dividend ?

obsolete infrastructure (competitiveness)

environmental constraints eg labour availability/cost


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The Plan

You have received Guidance from the

Commanderand you know what is happening in

the marketplace because of yourSituationalAwareness

All you have to do is prepare and execute a Plan

Lets quickly revise the MAP


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Courses of

Action

Mission

A B


C


Detailed Plans

Prepared

Review&

Confirm

Commanders

Intent

Execution

WE ARE

AT

THIS

STAGE


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COURSES of ACTION (1)

You move from Current State toEnd State by

strikingat the enemies (competitors) COG while at

the same time protecting your own COG. Determine Courses of Action (COA) - options

COA should be significantly different

Each COA consists of co-ordinated and sequenceddecisive events (milestones) that progress towards

the enemys COG by the destruction or

neutralisation of their critical vulnerabilities


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AFRIKA CORPS

COG was mobility, armour and air

superiority

Critical Vulnerability was the supply chain -without fuel they were immobile

The Allied plan was to disrupt the supply

chain by using the Navy to attack convoys inthe Mediterranean and Special Forces in the

desert to blow up fuel dumps and parked

aircraft


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SECOND GULF WAR

The sea port near Basra was closed to shipping

due to a few WW1 vintage mines - Coalition

supply chain was impacted.

Coalition road convoys were attacked.

Severe dust storms restricted visibility,

movement and targeting.

Did the Coalition think the fighting would end

when the Regime (COG) was beaten ?

With the benefit of hindsight perhaps the

Coalitions End State was poorly defined.


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USS COLE Two (2) terrorists in a

rubber boat loaded with400-700kg of explosive

17 deaths and 39 injuries

$240M repair bill

14 months out of service

Example ofAsymmetric

Warfare where an

adversary pits strengthagainst a weakness,

sometimes in an

unconventional manner


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Corporate

Asymmetric Warfare

ASK YOURSELF

If I want to obtain a larger share of the

market do I attack head on (Attritionist) or

should I adopt Asymmetric tactics?


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COURSES of ACTION (2)

Having developed COA they need to be:

Tested - eg Wargame, Monte Carlo simulations,

third party/due diligence reviews, pilot launchModified if the situation has changed or a better

way is identified

Select the one most likely to succeed Obtain stakeholder (Commander) sign-off


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POLITICS

MEDIAPRODUCT

CLIMATE

COMPETITOR

PERSONNEL

RESOURCES

ECONOMY

CULTURE

&

RELIGION

LEGAL


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Courses of

Action

Mission

A B


C


Detailed Plans

Prepared

Review&

Confirm

Commanders

Intent

Execution

WE ARE

AT

THIS

STAGE


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Detailed Planning & Execution

Military precision; went like clock-work;timed to the minute; or SNAFU ?

A detailed project plan needs to be prepared,

communicated and controlled.In the first Gulf War 75% ofcontainers had to be

opened on the wharf as their manifests were

unreliable

Lack ofasset tracking meant that they could not

find a misplaced dozer blade

Different religions have different Holy Days - this

has to be res ected and factored into the lan


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2003 Gulf War

New Approach to Logistics New technology and logistics capability allowed our

forces to move further and faster.. with very deadly

effectiveness Weve gotten out of the business of warehousing

huge mountains of inventories, but we still manage

small hills of critical and high-demand items

RFID and tracking technology meant the forces couldadvance much faster and further along much thinner

supply lines


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Presenting and Selling the Plan

SMEACSituation

MissionExecution

Administration

Control

I took the chart I had been briefing (Schwarzkopf) and wrote -

Logisticians will not let you or our soldiers down.

LTGEN William G Pagonis, 29 Dec 1990


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COMPETITOR REACTION !

No plan survives the first shot.US Defence Secretary Rumsfeld


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ART & SCIENCE

The MAP is a proven technique but for best

results it requires practitioners to use

both sides of their brain:

Left - Sequential Analysis

Creative Solutions - Right

G t Wh


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Go to Whoa

Current

State

End

State

Situational Awareness

Commanders Intent

Mission

Courses of Action Identified

Courses of Action Analysed

Decision

Detailed Plan (Orders) Prepared

Execution

Decisive EventsEnemy Centre of Gravity

Contingenc Lines of Operation


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With apologies to

General George Patton

It is better to develop and execute a

workable plan in a timely manner

as opposed to continuing to develop

the perfect plan on the wayto the PW cage - or bankruptcy!


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7497944 COG Analysis in Business Planning

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