7 th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries
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Climate change and coastal fisheries [email protected] Morgan Pratchett, Philip Munday, Nicholas Graham, Mecki Kronen*, Silvia Pinca*, Kim Friedman*, Tom Brewer, Johann Bell*, Shaun Wilson, Joshua Cinner, Jeff Kinch, Rebecca Lawton, Ashley Williams*, Lindsay Chapman*, and Franck Magron* 7 th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries
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7 th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Morgan Pratchett, Philip Munday, Nicholas Graham, Mecki Kronen*, Silvia Pinca*, Kim Friedman*, Tom Brewer, Johann Bell*, Shaun Wilson, Joshua
Cinner, Jeff Kinch, Rebecca Lawton, Ashley Williams*, Lindsay Chapman*, and Franck Magron*
7th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Four categories of coastal fisheries
1. Demersal finfishes 2. Nearshore pelagics
3. Targeted invertebrates 4. Shallow sub tidal and intertidal invertebrates
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Pro
port
iona
l use
spe
cies
Main types of species considered Demersal finfishes
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Tem
pera
ture
incr
ease
(o C
)T
empe
ratu
re in
crea
se (
o C)
Major changes in environmental conditions1. Sea surface temperature (SST)
High emissions
Low emissions
B1
A2
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Redistribution of species with increased temperature
Increasing latitude
Decreasing temperature
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Redistribution of potential fisheries catch
By 2050, potential fisheries catches will decline by ~40% in the tropical Pacific if species are free to move poleward with increasing temperatures (Cheung et al. 2010)
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Tem
pera
ture
incr
ease
(o C
)T
empe
ratu
re in
crea
se (
o C)
B1
A2
Typical bleaching threshold
High emissions
Low emissions
Major changes in environmental conditions1. Sea surface temperature (SST)
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Sev
erity
of
decl
ines
Sev
erity
of
decl
ines
High emissions
B1
A2
Low emissions
Major changes in environmental conditions2. Coral cover
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
A2
Sev
erity
of
decl
ines
Sev
erity
of
decl
ines
Major changes in environmental conditions2. Coral cover
B1
Effective local managementby teams of experts
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Declines in other habitats are also expected to affect coastal fisheries
Habitat2035 2100B1/A2 B1 A2
Mangroves -10 to > -10% -50 to -70% -60 to -80%
Seagrass < -5 to -20% -5 to -35% -10 to -50%
Linkages between coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses in the life cycles of coastal fish and invertebrates
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Fish declines exacerbated by structural collapse of coral habitats
65% decline in abundance and diversity of fishes
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Sev
erity
of
decl
ines
Sev
erity
of
decl
ines
Major changes in environmental conditions3. Aragonite saturation (ocean acidification)
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Major changes in environmental conditions3. Aragonite saturation (ocean acidification)
Loss of skeleton for corals growing under acidified conditions (Fine and Tchernov 2007)
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Major changes in environmental conditions3. Aragonite saturation (ocean acidification)
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
Demersal finfish
Nearshore pelagic fish
Targeted invertebrates
Shallow Sub-tidal &
intertidal invertebrates
WARM & ARCH
PEQD, NPTG & SPSG
2035 B1/A2 -5% 0% +40% -5% 0%
2100 B1 -20% -10% +35% -10% -5%
2100 A2 -50% -15% +30% -20% -10%
Low Medium High Very High
Confidence
7th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
7th SPC HOF meeting Effects of climate change on coastal fisheries
Coastal fisheries are sensitive to changes in
- habitat quality and quantity
- sea surface temperature
- seawater chemistry (pH)
- ocean currents and nutrient availability
Up until 2035 effects of climate change may be difficult to distinguish from sustained exploitation and habitat degradation
Effective local management will greatly reduce longer-term impacts of climate change on coastal fisheries
Climate change and coastal [email protected]
7th SPC HOF meeting Adaptation and management recommendations
Reverse or reduce local anthropogenic impacts that reduce the structural complexity and biological diversity of critical coastal habitats.
Keep production of demersal finfish and invertebrates within sustainable limits; rebuilding populations of over-exploited species
Diversify fishing activities (and livelihoods) to reduce reliance on fisheries species that are highly vulnerable to climate change
