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Transcript of 7 andreas tuerk better_zagreb_09_12 10h03
BRINGINGEUROPEANDTHIRDCOUNTRIESCLOSER
TOGETHERTHROUGHRENEWABLEENERGIES
The BETTER project
Zagreb, 09 December 2013
Andreas Tuerk, Dorian Frieden, JR
Robert Pasiscko, Zoran Kordic, UNDP
PROJECT PRESENTATION (2/2) CIEMAT (Spain)
Centro de Invest. Energ. Mediamb. Tecn
DLR (Germany) Deutsches Zentrum Für Luft-und raumfahrt e.V
ECN (Netherlands)Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands
JOANNEUM (Austria) Forshungsgesellschaft Mbh
NTUA (Greece) National Technical University of Athens
OME (France) Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie
PIK (Germany) Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
TUWIEN (Austria) Vienna University of Technology
UNDP (International) United Nations Development Programme
PROJECT PRESENTATION (1/2)
BETTER: Bringing Europe and Third countries closer together
through renewable Energies (BETTER);
Intelligent Energy for Europe Programme, managed by the
Executive Agency for Competitiveness and Innovation (EACI);
Started: 1st July 2012;
Expected Completion Date: 1st January 2015;
Coordinator: CIEMAT, Madrid
http://better-project.net
Assess, through case studies, stakeholders involvement and integrated analysis:
•to what extent cooperation with third countries can help Europe achieve its RES targets in 2020 and beyond
•trigger the deployment of RES electricity projects in third countries and
•create synergies and win-win circumstances for all involved parties.
OBJECTIVES
Where can get the EU (green) energy from?
EU RES directive
• The RES Directive (2009/28/EC) sets binding national 2020 RES targets for all EU member states
• These targets do not explicitly reflect the national resource availability
-> Its not about capacity extension only but also on energy efficiency
Adoption of RES directive and RES targets in the West Balkan countries
STAKEHOLDERS INVOLVEMENT
COMM
UNICATION AND DISSEM
INATION
Bottom-up
Top
-Dow
n
Case studies (N.Africa, W.Balkans and Turkey) willinvestigate in detail the technical, socio-economic andenvironmental aspects of RES cooperation.
Integrated assessment will be undertaken from the “EU plus third countries” perspective, including:
• Detailed quantitative cost-benefit evaluation offeasible policy approaches as well as power systemanalysis
• Other possible “co-effects” (such as impacts on EU climate targets, energy security and macro-economicaspects).
METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK
(Green-X, HIREPs Models)
Motivation for cooperation mechanisms
Renewable energy targets are calculated based on:• current RES share• country GDP
Do not take into account renewable energy potentials!
WB
MS
RES Directive -> RES targets
NREAP (Renewable energy Action Plan)
Cooperation mechanism
Different options how to reach the targets
domestically
most of the Member States plan to fulfill their renewable energy targets domestically 4 Member States namely France, Greece, Italy, and Spain noted in their forecast documents that they may use cooperation mechanisms to develop renewable energy in third countries
Basic principle of cooperation mechanisms
• Cooperation mechanisms were introduced to allow countries with high renewable energy potentials and/or low production costs (COUNTRY A) to sell their renewable energy surplus to those countries that have either low renewable energy endowments and/or have higher generation costs (COUNTRY B).
• The main idea behind this is to reach the targets in a more cost-effectively way and to reduce the overall costs in achieving it.
COUNTRY A (low/expansive RES potential)
COUNTRY B (high/cheap
RES potential)
Money transfer
RES transfer
Types of cooperation mechanisms
Cooperation Mechanisms are defined in Directive 2009/28/EC as followed:• Statistical transfers between MS (Article 6)• Joint projects between MS (Article 7 and 8)• Joint projects between MS and third countries, under the condition that RES electricity is imported to the
EU (Article 9 and 10)• Joint support schemes (Article 11)
Cooperation Mechanisms
Type of cooperation
Main actors Eligible for West Balkan countries
Type of transferred energy
Statistical transfers Only statistical transfer of RES shares
Governments Yes, but unlikely – because of statistics
No transfer of energy
Joint projects between MS
Project-based Governments No Heat/transport/electricity
Joint projects between MS and third countries
Physical transfer Governments Yes Electricity
Joint support schemes
Common support scheme
Governments Yes, but unlikely
Heat/transport/electricity
In focus: West Balkan region
• The green columns represent the share of renewable energy against projected 2020 energy demand
• The differences between the green (RES potential) and red columns (RES target) represents the energy that could be sold via cooperation mechanisms.
In focus: Joint projects between MS and WB
Country A(low/expensive RES
potential)
Country B (high/cheap RES
potential)
Money transferProject investor
RES transfer
MWh
Support payment (feed-in-tariffs)EU
Comission
Notification
Framework Agreement
Projected renewable electricity surplusses - Valleys of Opportunity (VoO)
RES transferRES transfer
Study case: The Serbia Italian CooperationJoint project on Ibar river
• Italy stated in its National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) that it would import 6 TWh per year of electricity from the Balkans, via Montenegro through the marine energy cable (2015)
• During 2009, Serbia and Italy signed Memorandum of understanding to implement joint projects• It was decided that the first project in mutual cooperation would be the construction of
hydroelectric power plants on the Ibar
Technology Hydro power
Capacity of hydro power plants 118 MW
Construction time 7 years
Investment costs 300 mil. €
Location Ibar river
Production 443,400 MWh
Number of parks 10
Cooperation mechanism Joint project between MS and third countries
Study case: The Serbia Italian CooperationCosts (red color) and benefits (blue color) from cooperation
Cost and benefits Base case scenario (Italy produces hydro power domestically)
Cooperation scenario (Italy buys electricity from Serbia)
Generation costs (€c/kWH) 20-22 10-12
Electricity market price (€c/kWh) 6-7 3-4
Grid related costs (€c/kWh) 0.5 n/a
Transmission related costs (€c/kWh) - 0,75
TOTAL COSTS (€c/kWh) ~15 ~5
Indirect costs and benefits CO2
Industrial LeadershipOther pollutantsEconomic activityEmploymentEnergy Security
CO2
Industrial LeadershipOther pollutantsEconomic activityEmploymentEnergy Security
Action plans roadmap and Stakehodolders dialogue
2013 2014
• Action plans for each contry• roadmap for the region
• We need YOUR feedback and input!
Do the West Balkans benefit from RES cooperation?
• Are there win-win situations?• Can potentials be exploited that cannot be exploited with
national feed-in tarriffs?• Economic benefits?• Environmaltal effects? Eg biodiversity loss?• Social implications?
Linking the Balkans with Italy
• Planned new grid connections will significantely change the energy market in the region
• Low feed-in tarifs barrier for some technologies
• New business cases for renewables and/or fossils
Our research agenda
Strategic consideration for each WB country:Domestic target achievement vs trade: Do the Balkans need the potential for 2020 or later?Trading with the EU or within the region?Can the cooperation mechanisms lead to new business models for the region adn how could they look like?Could the cooperation mechanisms assist in avoiding a fossil lock-in?Possible role and design of different cooperation mechanism with different pros and cons
Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Target of 40% renewables by 2020• Currently large hydro and lignite electricity• More fossil plants and hydro planned• Will Bosnia be able to expand wind up to 2020?• Can export create business cases for non-hydro?• New 400 kV to Serbia planned (to export hydro
electricity)• Regulatory and administrative barriers?
BIH: potential and targets
BIH: energy scenarios
Montenegro
• RES target of 33%• Currently large hydro, fossils and biomass• Focus is mainly on large and small hydro, but also wind
and biomass power expansion is envisioned.• Planned submarine interconnection cable between
Montenegro and Italy should offer new possibilities for international cooperation.
Montenegro: RES potentials and targets
FYROM Macedonia
• RES target of 28%• Strong expansion of hydroelectric generation is planned. • A Feed-In Tariff is in place, with a budgetary limit for non-
hydro technologies.• 400 kV to Greece, 400kV to Albania-Italy only after 2016• Limited financial support for solar and wind
Macedonia: RES potentials and targets
Croatia
• 20% RES target• Currently thermal and large hydro electricity generation • Increase of renewable electricity generation, especially
wind and biomass, but far below wind potentials • Increased biomass heat and solar energy use for
heating. • Wind energy could be available for export, if grid to Italy
is enhanced• current grid capacity for new wind power plants is
estimated at a maximum of 360 MW• EU MS since July 2013: No third country status anymore
Croatia: RES potentials and targets
Albania
• Albanian electricity generation mainly hydro• Albania has accepted a RES target of 38% by 2020• NREAP:
• Focus on hydro and renewable heat (biomass, solar thermal)
• Possible use of cooperation mechanism until 2020 for wind expansion
• Current grid connections are insufficient for large scale export, new cable to be built to Italy (to enable wind energy export)
AL: potential and targets
AL: Energy Efficiency pathway critical
Serbia
• RES target of 27%• Lignite fired TPPs, large hydro power and biomass as
the major renewable energy source• Increase of wind planned (500MW), but also biomass
electricity and heat. • Planned wind expansion at the upper limit of what the
Serbian grid is expected to be able to absorb (NREAP)• Feed-in Tariff for solar photovoltaics limited to 10 MW of
capacity.• Interest in using cooperation mechanisms for hydro and
solar projects in Serbia.
SR: RES potentials and targets
SR: energy demand
Kosovo*
• Strong expansion of hydroelectric generation is planned (large HPP Zhur)
• Feed-In-Tariff for solar photovoltaic generation is to start in 2014.
• Planned renewables would exceed RES targets if Zhur is impemented
• Surplus renewables could be sold via the cooperation mechanisms.
• 400 kV connection to Albania only in 2017
Kosovo*: RES potentials and targets
Cooperation within the region?
• Current lack of cooperation between countries led to an inefficient regional energy system as opposed pre-1990, where region was a net electricity exporter
• Cooperation between some countries in the region unlikely (eg Serbia and Kosovo), in others cooperation is emerging (Albania and Kosovo, or Macedonia and Kosovo)
• Joint Projects within the region an option• Joint Support schemes however unlikely in the near
future
Conclusions
• Export of those renewable potential in the next years that cannot be financed by the countries
• Export for those RES potentials that cannot be integrated in the countries grids, eg wind
• Meeting the RES targets will be a challenge• More efficient use and improvement of existing
infrastructure is key to meet the RES targets and may enable to export electricity
Thanks for your attention!