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Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Threats to the United States 03.24.2015 THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES 1 These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters March 16-24, 2015. For the survey, a sample of 2,809 Americans, including 1,083 Democrats, 1,059 Republicans, and 351 Independents; and 2,322 people who identified as white and 487 people who identified as a minority, ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.1 for all adults, 3.4 percentage points for Democrats, 3.4 percentage points for Republicans, 6.0 percentage points for Independents, 2.3 percentage points for people who identified as white, and 5.1 percentage points for people who identified as a minority. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix. The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/. Q1. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following countries or organizations pose to the United States? All adults 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent threat Not sure Islamic State/ISIS 3% 3% 8% 15% 58% 12% Al Qaeda 3% 5% 12% 23% 43% 14% North Korea 4% 7% 19% 24% 31% 14% Iran 4% 7% 18% 26% 31% 15% Syria 7% 10% 22% 21% 21% 20% Boko Haram 6% 9% 14% 15% 19% 37% Russia 6% 10% 22% 26% 18% 18% Yemen 8% 11% 21% 16% 15% 29% The Republican Party 28% 16% 16% 10% 13% 16% China 8% 15% 25% 21% 13% 18% The Democratic Party 30% 14% 16% 11% 13% 16% Saudi Arabia 11% 16% 24% 17% 11% 22% Anonymous 16% 9% 16% 9% 9% 41% NSA 15% 13% 20% 11% 8% 33% Israel 29% 16% 16% 12% 8% 20% CIA 23% 20% 18% 9% 8% 22% The Catholic Church 44% 16% 11% 6% 7% 16% Cuba 21% 22% 21% 9% 6% 21%

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  • Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Threats to the United States 03.24.2015

    THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES

    1

    These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters March 16-24, 2015. For the survey, a sample of 2,809 Americans, including 1,083 Democrats, 1,059 Republicans, and 351 Independents; and 2,322 people who identified as white and 487 people who

    identified as a minority, ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.1 for all adults, 3.4 percentage points for Democrats, 3.4

    percentage points for Republicans, 6.0 percentage points for Independents, 2.3 percentage points for people who identified as white, and 5.1 percentage points for people who identified as a minority. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

    The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls,

    please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.

    Q1. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following countries or organizations pose to the United States?

    All adults 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Islamic State/ISIS 3% 3% 8% 15% 58% 12%

    Al Qaeda 3% 5% 12% 23% 43% 14%

    North Korea 4% 7% 19% 24% 31% 14%

    Iran 4% 7% 18% 26% 31% 15%

    Syria 7% 10% 22% 21% 21% 20%

    Boko Haram 6% 9% 14% 15% 19% 37%

    Russia 6% 10% 22% 26% 18% 18%

    Yemen 8% 11% 21% 16% 15% 29%

    The Republican Party 28% 16% 16% 10% 13% 16%

    China 8% 15% 25% 21% 13% 18%

    The Democratic Party 30% 14% 16% 11% 13% 16%

    Saudi Arabia 11% 16% 24% 17% 11% 22%

    Anonymous 16% 9% 16% 9% 9% 41%

    NSA 15% 13% 20% 11% 8% 33%

    Israel 29% 16% 16% 12% 8% 20%

    CIA 23% 20% 18% 9% 8% 22%

    The Catholic Church 44% 16% 11% 6% 7% 16%

    Cuba 21% 22% 21% 9% 6% 21%

    http://aapor.org/Understanding_a_credibility_interval_and_how_it_differs_from_the_margin_of_sampling_error_in_a_publi.htmhttp://aapor.org/Understanding_a_credibility_interval_and_how_it_differs_from_the_margin_of_sampling_error_in_a_publi.htmhttp://polling.reuters.com/

  • Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Threats to the United States 03.24.2015

    2

    Q1. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following countries or organizations pose to the United States? (cont.)

    Democrats 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Islamic State/ISIS 3% 5% 11% 18% 51% 11%

    Al Qaeda 3% 7% 15% 23% 38% 14%

    North Korea 4% 10% 20% 26% 27% 12%

    Iran 5% 8% 22% 24% 26% 15%

    The Republican Party 16% 15% 18% 16% 22% 13%

    Syria 8% 12% 21% 22% 17% 19%

    Boko Haram 7% 9% 15% 15% 17% 37%

    Russia 7% 11% 25% 24% 15% 18%

    Yemen 10% 13% 22% 16% 10% 29%

    China 9% 19% 28% 19% 9% 16%

    Saudi Arabia 12% 18% 22% 17% 9% 22%

    Anonymous 16% 13% 16% 9% 7% 39%

    Israel 20% 20% 17% 16% 7% 20%

    The Catholic Church 41% 19% 11% 8% 6% 14%

    NSA 16% 13% 22% 12% 5% 32%

    CIA 23% 22% 21% 10% 4% 20%

    Cuba 26% 24% 18% 7% 4% 20%

    The Democratic Party 49% 18% 12% 5% 3% 13%

    Republicans 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Islamic State/ISIS 4% 2% 5% 12% 72% 6%

    Al Qaeda 3% 3% 10% 24% 54% 7%

    Iran 2% 5% 15% 30% 40% 8%

    North Korea 3% 5% 20% 26% 38% 9%

    Syria 6% 9% 21% 23% 28% 14%

    The Democratic Party 14% 13% 19% 20% 27% 7%

    Boko Haram 5% 9% 15% 18% 23% 31%

    Russia 3% 10% 22% 33% 22% 10%

    Yemen 7% 9% 21% 20% 21% 21%

    China 7% 13% 26% 26% 19% 9%

    Saudi Arabia 9% 18% 27% 20% 12% 15%

    Anonymous 18% 8% 15% 10% 9% 40%

    NSA 16% 15% 22% 12% 9% 26%

    CIA 28% 22% 18% 9% 8% 14%

    Cuba 17% 22% 29% 12% 8% 12%

    Israel 45% 16% 12% 9% 7% 11%

    The Catholic Church 55% 15% 11% 4% 6% 10%

    The Republican Party 51% 22% 13% 4% 3% 7%

  • Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Threats to the United States 03.24.2015

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    Q1. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following countries or organizations pose to the United States? (cont.)

    Independents 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Islamic State/ISIS 3% 3% 8% 15% 58% 14%

    Al Qaeda 3% 6% 11% 25% 39% 16%

    North Korea 5% 6% 17% 23% 31% 17%

    Iran 4% 10% 16% 23% 31% 16%

    Syria 6% 8% 27% 21% 21% 18%

    Boko Haram 8% 12% 12% 14% 21% 33%

    Russia 7% 12% 19% 27% 20% 16%

    Yemen 8% 11% 22% 15% 17% 26%

    NSA 16% 9% 22% 7% 15% 31%

    CIA 17% 15% 19% 8% 15% 27%

    The Republican Party 21% 9% 21% 10% 14% 25%

    China 9% 14% 22% 22% 14% 19%

    Saudi Arabia 11% 13% 25% 16% 14% 21%

    The Democratic Party 22% 9% 22% 13% 12% 22%

    Anonymous 18% 7% 15% 9% 12% 39%

    Israel 28% 11% 20% 11% 10% 21%

    The Catholic Church 42% 15% 12% 10% 8% 13%

    Cuba 22% 21% 18% 11% 7% 20%

    Whites 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Islamic State/ISIS 2% 3% 8% 15% 62% 11%

    Al Qaeda 2% 5% 11% 24% 45% 13%

    North Korea 3% 7% 19% 26% 32% 13%

    Iran 3% 6% 17% 28% 32% 14%

    Syria 6% 9% 22% 23% 21% 20%

    Boko Haram 5% 8% 14% 16% 18% 38%

    Russia 4% 9% 24% 28% 18% 17%

    Yemen 7% 10% 21% 18% 16% 28%

    The Democratic Party 28% 13% 17% 13% 15% 15%

    China 6% 14% 26% 23% 14% 16%

    The Republican Party 33% 16% 15% 9% 12% 15%

    Saudi Arabia 10% 16% 25% 16% 11% 22%

    NSA 16% 13% 21% 9% 8% 33%

    CIA 25% 19% 19% 9% 7% 21%

    Anonymous 18% 9% 13% 8% 7% 44%

    Israel 33% 16% 16% 10% 6% 19%

    The Catholic Church 48% 16% 11% 5% 6% 15%

    Cuba 20% 23% 21% 10% 6% 20%

  • Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Threats to the United States 03.24.2015

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    Q1. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following countries or organizations pose to the United States? (cont.)

    Minorities 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Islamic State/ISIS 7% 5% 8% 16% 48% 16%

    Al Qaeda 5% 6% 13% 22% 37% 18%

    North Korea 6% 9% 17% 22% 30% 16%

    Iran 6% 8% 19% 22% 28% 18%

    Syria 9% 12% 20% 17% 21% 21%

    Boko Haram 8% 11% 15% 12% 20% 34%

    Russia 10% 12% 17% 22% 19% 21%

    The Republican Party 19% 15% 19% 13% 15% 18%

    Yemen 12% 12% 22% 13% 12% 29%

    Anonymous 11% 10% 21% 11% 12% 36%

    Israel 21% 17% 15% 15% 11% 22%

    China 12% 17% 22% 17% 11% 20%

    Saudi Arabia 12% 16% 22% 18% 10% 22%

    The Democratic Party 35% 16% 15% 7% 9% 18%

    NSA 13% 11% 19% 15% 9% 33%

    CIA 20% 20% 18% 10% 9% 23%

    The Catholic Church 38% 17% 10% 9% 8% 17%

    Cuba 23% 21% 21% 7% 5% 23%

    Q2. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following leaders or people pose to the United States?

    All adults 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri 3% 5% 12% 21% 41% 18%

    Islamic State executioner Jihadi John 4% 7% 12% 18% 38% 22%

    North Koreas Kim Jong-un 4% 7% 15% 25% 34% 16%

    Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

    3% 7% 17% 23% 27% 22%

    Russian President Vladimir Putin 4% 10% 23% 24% 20% 19%

    President Barack Obama 36% 12% 12% 11% 18% 12%

    Syrian President Bashar al-Assad 4% 9% 22% 20% 17% 26%

    Chinese President Xi Jinping 8% 14% 22% 17% 13% 25%

    Cubas President Raul Castro 16% 20% 21% 12% 9% 22%

    Speaker of the US House John Boehner 28% 16% 16% 9% 9% 22%

    Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu 25% 17% 16% 10% 6% 26%

    Pope Francis 57% 12% 7% 5% 3% 16%

  • Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Threats to the United States 03.24.2015

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    Q2. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following leaders or people pose to the United States? (cont.)

    Democrats 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri 3% 7% 17% 21% 36% 16%

    Islamic State executioner Jihadi John 5% 9% 14% 18% 33% 22%

    North Koreas Kim Jong-un 4% 8% 18% 24% 30% 15%

    Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

    4% 10% 23% 20% 22% 21%

    Russian President Vladimir Putin 5% 13% 26% 22% 17% 17%

    Syrian President Bashar al-Assad 5% 12% 21% 22% 15% 24%

    Speaker of the US House John Boehner 26% 13% 17% 14% 12% 19%

    Chinese President Xi Jinping 10% 17% 22% 15% 9% 27%

    Cubas President Raul Castro 20% 23% 18% 11% 6% 22%

    Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu 16% 17% 20% 13% 6% 27%

    President Barack Obama 59% 12% 8% 5% 5% 11%

    Pope Francis 59% 12% 7% 6% 3% 14%

    Republicans 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri 2% 2% 10% 22% 53% 11%

    Islamic State executioner Jihadi John 3% 5% 10% 19% 49% 12%

    North Koreas Kim Jong-un 4% 5% 14% 26% 44% 8%

    Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

    2% 5% 13% 30% 36% 15%

    President Barack Obama 14% 12% 16% 18% 34% 5%

    Russian President Vladimir Putin 4% 8% 20% 32% 25% 10%

    Syrian President Bashar al-Assad 3% 7% 24% 22% 23% 21%

    Chinese President Xi Jinping 6% 13% 23% 23% 19% 16%

    Cubas President Raul Castro 13% 21% 26% 14% 12% 14%

    Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu 39% 19% 13% 7% 5% 16%

    Speaker of the US House John Boehner 37% 22% 17% 5% 4% 16%

    Pope Francis 60% 15% 7% 5% 3% 10%

    Independents 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri 3% 7% 10% 23% 37% 20%

    Islamic State executioner Jihadi John 5% 8% 10% 18% 36% 23%

    North Koreas Kim Jong-un 4% 11% 12% 25% 31% 18%

    Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

    4% 7% 14% 23% 29% 22%

    President Barack Obama 24% 13% 13% 15% 20% 15%

    Russian President Vladimir Putin 4% 6% 28% 24% 19% 20%

    Syrian President Bashar al-Assad 6% 8% 26% 18% 19% 23%

    Chinese President Xi Jinping 11% 15% 21% 17% 15% 21%

    Cubas President Raul Castro 18% 20% 18% 13% 12% 20%

    Speaker of the US House John Boehner 25% 20% 17% 6% 10% 21%

    Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu 28% 14% 14% 13% 10% 21%

    Pope Francis 58% 9% 11% 3% 6% 14%

  • Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Threats to the United States 03.24.2015

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    Q2. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following leaders or people pose to the United States? (cont.)

    Whites 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri 2% 4% 11% 22% 45% 16%

    Islamic State executioner Jihadi John 4% 6% 12% 18% 41% 20%

    North Koreas Kim Jong-un 3% 7% 15% 27% 34% 14%

    Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

    3% 6% 17% 24% 29% 22%

    President Barack Obama 29% 11% 14% 13% 22% 11%

    Russian President Vladimir Putin 4% 8% 24% 26% 21% 17%

    Syrian President Bashar al-Assad 4% 9% 23% 21% 18% 25%

    Chinese President Xi Jinping 7% 13% 24% 19% 13% 24%

    Cubas President Raul Castro 15% 21% 21% 12% 9% 21%

    Speaker of the US House John Boehner 30% 17% 16% 8% 8% 21%

    Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu 29% 16% 16% 10% 6% 24%

    Pope Francis 60% 12% 7% 3% 3% 14%

    Minorities 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri 5% 7% 16% 20% 33% 20%

    North Koreas Kim Jong-un 6% 8% 14% 21% 32% 19%

    Islamic State executioner Jihadi John 5% 9% 13% 17% 30% 26%

    Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

    3% 11% 18% 21% 23% 24%

    Russian President Vladimir Putin 5% 12% 23% 20% 17% 22%

    Syrian President Bashar al-Assad 5% 11% 22% 19% 16% 28%

    Chinese President Xi Jinping 12% 16% 19% 13% 11% 28%

    President Barack Obama 49% 13% 7% 7% 10% 14%

    Cubas President Raul Castro 18% 19% 22% 10% 9% 23%

    Speaker of the US House John Boehner 25% 15% 18% 10% 9% 24%

    Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu 17% 19% 18% 10% 8% 29%

    Pope Francis 50% 11% 7% 8% 5% 18%

  • Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Threats to the United States 03.24.2015

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    Q3. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following beliefs, movements, trends or phenomena pose to the United States?

    All adults 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Terrorism 2% 5% 9% 20% 55% 9%

    Cyber attacks and espionage 3% 4% 16% 27% 39% 11%

    Drug trafficking 3% 9% 19% 26% 33% 10%

    Illegal immigration 9% 13% 19% 19% 28% 11%

    Racism and bigotry 7% 11% 23% 22% 28% 10%

    Organized crime 4% 13% 25% 22% 26% 10%

    Islam 14% 12% 17% 15% 25% 16%

    Global warming/climate change 14% 13% 21% 17% 23% 12%

    Collapse of nation states 9% 12% 25% 14% 16% 24%

    Sexism 17% 17% 23% 13% 14% 16%

    WMD proliferation 5% 10% 18% 14% 13% 39%

    Atheism 33% 13% 16% 11% 12% 15%

    Gay rights 43% 13% 13% 9% 12% 11%

    Judaism 45% 12% 13% 5% 7% 18%

    Christianity 55% 13% 11% 5% 6% 11%

    Womens rights 49% 16% 13% 6% 5% 11%

    Democrats 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Terrorism 2% 5% 12% 22% 51% 8%

    Cyber attacks and espionage 4% 5% 18% 25% 38% 10%

    Racism and bigotry 4% 8% 18% 28% 33% 9%

    Global warming/climate change 6% 10% 19% 22% 33% 10%

    Drug trafficking 4% 11% 22% 26% 30% 8%

    Organized crime 5% 13% 23% 23% 26% 9%

    Illegal immigration 14% 19% 22% 18% 18% 9%

    Sexism 15% 15% 22% 17% 17% 15%

    Islam 22% 12% 19% 13% 17% 16%

    Collapse of nation states 10% 14% 24% 16% 13% 24%

    WMD proliferation 6% 13% 19% 13% 11% 38%

    Atheism 41% 14% 14% 10% 8% 13%

    Gay rights 54% 12% 8% 8% 7% 10%

    Judaism 47% 13% 13% 6% 6% 16%

    Christianity 51% 14% 13% 5% 8% 10%

    Womens rights 54% 13% 12% 7% 5% 10%

  • Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Threats to the United States 03.24.2015

    8

    Q3. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following beliefs, movements, trends or phenomena pose to the United States? (cont.)

    Republicans 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Terrorism 1% 5% 6% 21% 64% 3%

    Cyber attacks and espionage 2% 3% 18% 30% 44% 4%

    Illegal immigration 4% 8% 17% 26% 41% 5%

    Drug trafficking 2% 7% 19% 29% 39% 4%

    Islam 6% 10% 17% 20% 38% 9%

    Organized crime 2% 15% 27% 26% 27% 4%

    Racism and bigotry 9% 16% 28% 19% 22% 6%

    Gay rights 31% 16% 17% 12% 19% 5%

    Atheism 26% 14% 20% 15% 18% 8%

    WMD proliferation 4% 9% 19% 17% 17% 34%

    Collapse of nation states 10% 12% 27% 17% 17% 18%

    Global warming/climate change 27% 19% 24% 12% 12% 7%

    Sexism 21% 22% 26% 9% 12% 9%

    Judaism 49% 12% 13% 5% 8% 12%

    Womens rights 45% 21% 17% 7% 5% 5%

    Christianity 67% 13% 7% 5% 3% 4%

    Independents 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Terrorism 4% 5% 11% 17% 53% 10%

    Cyber attacks and espionage 2% 6% 14% 26% 40% 13%

    Drug trafficking 3% 10% 18% 24% 33% 12%

    Illegal immigration 8% 13% 19% 15% 33% 12%

    Racism and bigotry 10% 8% 25% 22% 27% 8%

    Islam 15% 14% 16% 13% 26% 15%

    Organized crime 4% 16% 24% 17% 25% 14%

    Global warming/climate change 11% 13% 26% 16% 21% 12%

    Collapse of nation states 10% 9% 29% 10% 21% 21%

    WMD proliferation 8% 8% 17% 16% 17% 34%

    Sexism 19% 13% 26% 14% 14% 14%

    Atheism 33% 11% 18% 9% 13% 16%

    Gay rights 42% 10% 16% 8% 13% 11%

    Christianity 53% 10% 13% 5% 9% 10%

    Judaism 43% 15% 13% 6% 6% 17%

    Womens rights 49% 19% 12% 3% 6% 11%

  • Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Threats to the United States 03.24.2015

    9

    Q3. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following beliefs, movements, trends or phenomena pose to the United States? (cont.)

    Whites 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Terrorism 2% 3% 10% 21% 57% 7%

    Cyber attacks and espionage 2% 5% 17% 28% 40% 9%

    Drug trafficking 3% 8% 19% 27% 35% 8%

    Illegal immigration 7% 13% 19% 19% 34% 9%

    Islam 13% 12% 16% 16% 28% 15%

    Racism and bigotry 6% 12% 25% 24% 25% 9%

    Organized crime 3% 13% 26% 23% 25% 8%

    Global warming/climate change 16% 14% 24% 17% 20% 9%

    Collapse of nation states 9% 12% 25% 16% 15% 24%

    Sexism 17% 19% 25% 12% 14% 13%

    WMD proliferation 5% 8% 19% 15% 14% 39%

    Atheism 36% 13% 15% 10% 13% 13%

    Gay rights 43% 13% 13% 9% 13% 10%

    Judaism 48% 12% 12% 4% 6% 17%

    Christianity 59% 13% 10% 4% 4% 9%

    Womens rights 52% 17% 14% 4% 4% 10%

    Minorities 1: No threat 2 3 4 5: Imminent

    threat Not sure

    Terrorism 3% 8% 8% 17% 51% 13%

    Cyber attacks and espionage 5% 4% 15% 24% 37% 15%

    Racism and bigotry 8% 8% 18% 19% 33% 14%

    Drug trafficking 3% 10% 21% 24% 30% 14%

    Global warming/climate change 9% 9% 17% 18% 29% 17%

    Organized crime 5% 13% 21% 20% 26% 15%

    Islam 16% 11% 19% 13% 20% 20%

    Collapse of nation states 10% 11% 25% 12% 17% 25%

    Illegal immigration 14% 15% 20% 21% 16% 15%

    Sexism 17% 13% 20% 15% 14% 21%

    WMD proliferation 5% 14% 18% 13% 12% 38%

    Atheism 27% 12% 19% 12% 11% 19%

    Gay rights 42% 12% 13% 9% 10% 14%

    Christianity 47% 12% 12% 6% 10% 14%

    Judaism 39% 12% 15% 7% 8% 19%

    Womens rights 43% 14% 11% 9% 8% 14%

  • Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

    How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

    10

    The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter \, i.e., Y|~Bin(n,), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of yes, or 1, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion . This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is ones knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution ((/y)~(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters. Our credibility interval for is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on (/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately: For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2

    Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below. Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100.

    1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

    Sample size Credibility intervals

    2,000 2.5

    1,500 2.9

    1,000 3.5

    750 4.1

    500 5.0

    350 6.0

    200 7.9

    100 11.2