Sponsored by:

Visit RSQE online at lsa.umich.edu/econ/rsqe

The efforts of the following people are greatly

appreciated in contributing to the success of this conference:

Jacob Burton

Cerian Dunn

Michael Lee

Susan Lorand

Mary Mangum

Two-time recipient of the Blue Chip Forecasting Award for “accuracy, timeliness, and

professionalism” in economic forecasting.

NOVEMBER 21–22, 2019

Ann Arbor, Michigan

67th ANNUAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

CONFERENCE

The Leading Edge of Economic Forecasting since 1952

Morning Rackham Building

8:30 Registration Lobby

8:45 Continental Breakfast Assembly Hall

9:30 Session I: Amphitheatre

Presiding: Daniil Manaenkov

Welcome and Introduction

Mel Stephens, Interim Chair, Department of Economics

The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2020–2021

Aditi Thapar, Assistant Research Scientist, RSQE

Prospects for the Automotive Industry

Elaine Buckberg, Chief Economist, General Motors Company

11:00 Coffee Break Assembly Hall

11:30 Session I, continued Amphitheatre

Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips

Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?

Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, Deutsche Bank

12:15 Lunch Assembly Hall

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2019

Afternoon Rackham Building

1:30 Session II: The Labor Market and

Demographics

Amphitheatre

Presiding: Saul Hymans, Director Emeritus, RSQE

Are Millenials Different?

Christopher Kurz, Section Chief, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

The Effects on Employment and Family Income of Increasing the

Federal Minimum Wage

Will Carrington, Principal Analyst, Congressional Budget Office

3:00 Coffee Break Assembly Hall

3:30 Session II, continued Amphitheatre

The Labor Market and Individuals with Barriers to Employment

Jason Palmer, Bureau Director, State of Michigan Bureau of Labor

Market Information and Strategic Initiatives

Morning Rackham Building

8:30 Continental Breakfast Assembly Hall

9:30 Session IV: The Michigan Economy in

National Perspective

Amphitheatre

Presiding: George Fulton, Director Emeritus, RSQE

The Michigan Economic Outlook for 2020–2021

Gabriel Ehrlich, Director, RSQE

Will the Housing Market Save Us from Recession?

David Berson, Chief Economist, Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company

11:15 Coffee Break Assembly Hall

11:30 Session IV, continued Amphitheatre

The Outlook and Options for the Federal Budget

Kent Smetters, University of Pennsylvania

12:30 Lunch East Conference Room

1:00–2:30 Student and Professional Networking

Event

Assembly Hall

Evening The Graduate Ann Arbor

6:00 Social Hour Regency Ballroom

6:45 Dinner

Regency Ballroom

7:45 Session III: Special Presentation Regency Ballroom

Presiding: Gabriel Ehrlich, Director, RSQE

Future of Great Lakes: Integrating Economy and Ecology

Neil Hawkins, President, Fred A. and Barbara M. Erb Family Foundation

Save the Date:

68th Annual Economic Outlook Conference November 19–20, 2020

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2019