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Transcript of 6 th Annual International ESP Conference 2013 Session 4C Overview of using the tools of Mediated...
6th Annual International ESP Conference 2013 Session 4C
Overview of using the tools of Mediated Modelling, Ecosystem Valuation studies and MIMES in forecasting trends on the value of
ecosystem services
Marjan van den Belt,Anne-Gaelle Ausseil and
Roelof Boumans
26-30 August 2013,Bali, Indonesia
Workshop overview
• Introductions (10 minutes)• Case study ; Manawatu (10 minutes)• Benefit Transfer Method (10 minutes)• Mediated Modelling (MM) (10 minutes)• Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem
Services (MIMES) (20 minutes)• Coffee break (10 min)• Inter-activity (50 min)
Introductions
• Circulate participant list (name and email) only if happy to receive workshop results.
Workshop overview
• Introductions (10 minutes)• Case study ; Manawatu (10 minutes)• Benefit Transfer Method (10 minutes)• Mediated Modelling (MM) (10 minutes)• Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem
Services (MIMES) (20 minutes)• Coffee break (10 min)• Inter-activity (50 min)
The Manawatū River Catchment
Catchment area 594,400 ha
4 (of 9) highly erodable sub-catchments
The Manawatū River Catchment
Highly modified catchment 133,000 people320,000 cows
Protecting assets, livelihoods
Manawatu land cover: Pre- and Post Settlement
Source: Landcare Research. Complements of Anthony Cole
Workshop overview
• Introductions (10 minutes)• Case study ; Manawatu (10 minutes)• Benefit Transfer Method (10 minutes)• Mediated Modelling (MM) (10 minutes)• Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem
Services (MIMES) (20 minutes)• Coffee break (10 min)• Inter-activity (50 min)
Rapid Ecosystem Service Assessments
ES value in US94$: 33 trillion
GDP in US94$: 18 trillion
ES value in NZ94$: 228 billion
GDP in NZ94$: 84 billion
ES in NZ2006$: 6 billion
GDP in NZ2006$: 7.4 billion
Sources: Costanza et al. 1997Patterson and McDonald 1999van den Belt et al, 2009
GLOBAL
NEW ZEALAND
MANAWATU-WANGANUI
Map of Benefit Transferred information on the Manawatu
Other Benefit Transfer Methods
• Ecosystem Valuation Toolkit (EVT)• The Economics of Ecosystems and
Biodiversity (TEEB)• InVest
Workshop overview
• Introductions (10 minutes)• Case study ; Manawatu (10 minutes)• Benefit Transfer Method (10 minutes)• Mediated Modelling (MM) (10 minutes)• Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem
Services (MIMES) (20 minutes)• Coffee break (10 min)• Inter-activity (50 min)
Mediated Modelling‘Model building with, rather than for, people’
Auckland Mediated Modelling, Sustainable Pathways 2, 2012
IFS-MM ResultLand Use / Land CoverForest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture
Ecosystem ServicesFunctioning index (slider)
ValuesCost of actionsBenefit Transferred ESStakeholder dialogue
ActionsErosion control (SLUI)Nutrient managementRiparian PlantingWaste Water TreatmentRestoration
Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss
IFS management scenarios
Sediment loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
5 Million
3 Million
1 Million
Sediment loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
5 Million
3 Million
1 Million
Sediment loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
5 Million
3 Million
1 Million
Workshop overview
• Introductions (10 minutes)• Case study ; Manawatu (10 minutes)• Benefit Transfer Method (10 minutes)• Mediated Modelling (MM) (10 minutes)• Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of
Ecosystem Services (MIMES) (20 minutes)• Coffee break (10 min)• Inter-activity (50 min)
Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake,
Ecosystem Services Provided
Stakeholder dialogue
Actions
Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss
Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture
-+
PressuresDemographics, Global markets, Climate change
- +
-+
Ecosystem Services Demanded
ES Values
Cost of actions
+
-
-
-
+
Causality within the sustainability loopSUPPLY
DEMAND
Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake,
Ecosystem Services Provided
Actions
Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss
Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture
-+
Pressures
- +
-+
Ecosystem Services Demanded
ES Values+
-
-
+
Economic Services
-+
EconomicSectors+
+
Causality for sustainable economies
Cost of actions
-
Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake,
Ecosystem Services Provided
Actions
Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss
Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture
-+
Pressures
- +
-+
Ecosystem Services Demanded
Values+
-
-
+
Economic Services
-+
EconomicSectors
++
Causality for non-sustainability Economies
Subsidies+
Cost of actions
-
Manawatu MIMES - Qualitative overview
CatchmentsCatchments
Hydrological model
Land cover
Demographics coefficients
Land use
Demographics:Built capital
Water routing
Land environments
Land cover
Land use:N loadingWater
Land use
Demographics: population effect
Rain
Ecosystem goods and
services model Conversion
EcosystemServices
Water quality standards
Catchments
Manawatu MIMES – Data base links
CatchmentsCatchments
WATYIELD
The New Zealand Land Cover Database
Demographics By ANZSIC 2006 – industry classification
Land use change as emergent behavior
Input for local investment scenarios
FENZ
13 underlying climate, landform and soil variables
8 Land covers
7 land uses
7x7 Land use change
Demographics: 1 Population effect2 Business as Usual3 Restoration
z
Dynamics in goods and
service trade-offs
Emergent dynamics in EcosystemServices (see output slide 17)
Resource Management Act 1991
Freshwater Ecosystems of New Zealand (FENZ GIS)
Land Environments of New Zealand (LENZ)Database
8 user groups
Input for land use change scenarios
Clean water provision
Food & fibre
Food production
Nutrient loss (OVERSEER)
Forestry
Climate
Input
Soil
EnvironmentTimber production
Livestock farm types
Habitat Provision
Water flow regulationWater yield (WATYIELD)
Habitat provision
Erosion controlSediment loss (NZEEM)
Natural ecosystems
GIS framework
Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake,
Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss
Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture
-+SUPPLY
Land use/cover Indicators ES
The Manuwatu MIMES User Interface for Scenario Modeling
The Introduction Page
Habitat provision (ecosystem service)
Food supply (agricultural sector)
Meat supply Milk solids supply
Interface for the design of Erosion Control scenarios
Sediment loss
SLUI scenario
The SLUI Scenario Run
Interface for the Design of Nutrient Management Scenarios
Nutrient loss
Interface for the Design of Fencing and Riparian Planting Scenarios
Interface for the Design of Scenarios concerning the Investment into Natural Capital
Interface for the Design of Waste Water Treatment Scenarios
Water yield
Manawatu Land Use (ha) by Land Covers 1990
Land Use Dairy Cropping
Forestry
Sheep &
Beef
ResidentialIndustryServices
Conservatio
n
Water Use
Land Cover
Urban 11468
Pasture 50685 170106
Cropping 6591
Wetland 210
Forest 8585 22665
Shrub 63697
Water 3092
Riparian 222
Ecosystems perform Ecosystem Functions (estimated)
()S ()S()S()S
EcosystemFunctions
De-nitrification
Water storage
Habitat conditions for wildlife
Habitat conditions for Soil organisms
Growing of Biomass
Buildings and and Roads
Land CoverorEcosystems
Riparian low medium
high medium
medium
Cropping low high low
Forest medium
high high high
Pasture low low high low
Shrub low medium medium
low
Urban high
Water low high high low
Wetland high high high low
Ecosystem services needed for economic productivity(indexed)
Eco
syst
em s
erv
ice
s
Economic Sectors
Demographic Groups
Farmers
Recreationists
Foresters
Iwi Urbanites Conservationist
Industrialists
Services
EcosystemsServices
Waste assimilation high high
Flood protection low low high high high
Habitat provisioning
medium high high high
RecreationalCultural
high high high
Pollination high high
Fish and Water Quality
high high medium
high
Soil Formation high high
Water Supply high medium high medium
Food provisioning high high high medium
Economic sectors produce Environmental Externalities (estimated)
Impacts Nitrogen Loading
Urbanization
Restoration
Erosion
Demographic Groups
Farmers high high
Recreationists medium low
Foresters low low high
Iwi
Urbanites high high
Conservationists high
Industrialists high
Services high high
Externalities have impact on Ecosystems (estimated)
Ecosystems
Ext
ern
aliti
es
Complex model, uncomplicated to use
COFFEE BREAK
End-user MIMES Manawatu workshop 16 August 2013
Landcare Research, Department of Conservation, Waikato Regional Council, Southland Regional Council, Auckland Council, Greater Wellington Regional Council, Ministry of Primary Industries, Ministry for the Environment, SCION, Market Economics, Massey University
End-user survey results
Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
The MIMES model is a useful integrated framework to show rela-tionships that influence the supply and demand of ecosystem ser-
vices across the landscape.
End-user survey results
Strongly disagree
Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
MIMES can be further developed to in-form hotspots/trade-offs for investment
decisions
Workshop overview
• Introductions • Case study ; Manawatu • Benefit Transfer Method • Mediated Modelling (MM) • Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem
Services (MIMES) • Coffee break • Inter-activity
Toolkit assessment
Benefit Transfer
Strengths Weaknesses Strengths Weaknesses Strengths Weaknesses
Mediated Modeling Multi-scale Integrated Modelling
What are the strengths and weaknesses of the individual ESV tools, considering context, process and content?
What are the opportunities and threats for a toolkit?
Opportunities and Threats?
Feedback survey appreciated!
We’ll be in touch
THANK YOU!
Marjan, Anne-Gaelle and Roel