6TH POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS PROVISIONAL RESULTS AND ISSUES

Asif BajwaChief Statistician/Chief Census Commissioner(fmr)

CITY DIALOGUEPunjab Urban Unit

27 April 2018

A. Historical Context

B. Provisional results

C. Population Growth Rate

D. Controversy of Karachi vs Lahore Population

2

STRUCTURE

Prior to Census, questions as to why not being held. What is the population of the country.

Post Census, results being challenged because they are not according to perceptions

CM Sindh statement in 2016

MQM statements in 2017

PPP stance in Senate

PSP Writ petition in Supreme Court

3

CONTROVERSY ON CENSUS

4

A: HISTORICAL CONTEXT

• First regular Population Census in the areas now comprisingPakistan was held in 1881. Since then regular Censuses wereconducted after every ten years up to 1981.

• After independence six Censuses have been undertaken so far i.e.1951, 1961, 1972, 1981, 1998 (A) and in 2017 (A) .

• 6th Population & Housing Census was taken in March-April 2017 asdecided by the Supreme Court and approved by Council of CommonInterests.

5

LEGAL AND POLITICAL ASPECTS

Legal / Constitutional requirements of Census:

• Providing basis for political representation in the National andProvincial Assemblies (Article 51(5) of the Constitution).

• Delineation of Constituencies for National and Provincial Assemblies

• Basis of distribution of funds to the federating units by NationalFinance Commission (Article 160(2) of the Constitution).

• Determination of quota for recruitment to all Civil posts in the FederalGovernment.

PRINCIPLES FOR CONDUCT OF CENSUS

6

• Enumeration was respondent based.

• All persons residing in the country with reference to 18th

March, 2017 were counted at their usual place of residence(De-jure method). For homeless population, de-facto approachwas used.

• Afghans and other aliens living among the general public wereenumerated during Census. Data of Diplomats and Afghansliving in Refugees Villages was obtained from relevantagencies.

• CNIC was checked in random /suspect cases

CONDUCT OF CENSUS

• PBS strictly followed the boundaries notified by the competentauthorities: Administrative Boundaries, Revenue Boundaries,Rural / Urban Boundaries.

• In the Census-2017, Household is a place of residence for personor group of persons who normally live and eat together andconsider the living quarter / space occupied by them as theirusual place of residence.

7

CONDUCT OF CENSUS

8

• All the Enumerators and their Supervisors were ProvincialGovernment employees (120,000), appointed by the localAssistant Commissioner, who was the Census District Officer(CDO)

• They were deployed in the same locality where they wereposted.

• Army personnel accompanied the enumerator and recordedthe aggregate household information on Form-786.

• CDOs ensured complete coverage of area and population.Completion certificates furnished.

B: PROVISIONAL RESULTS OF CENSUS 2017

ADMN

UNITPOPULATION (mill) ANNUAL GROWTH RATE %

1981 1998 2017 1981 1998 2017

PAKISTAN 84.25 132.35 207.77 3.06 2.69 2.40

9

ADMN UNITPOPULATION (mill) ANNUAL GROWTH RATE %

1981 1998 2017 1981 1998 2017

PAKISTAN 84.25 132.35 207.77 3.06 2.69 2.40

KP 11.06 17.74 30.52 3.32 2.82 2.89

FATA 2.20 3.18 5.00 -1.47 2.19 2.41

PUNJAB 47.29 73.62 110.01 2.74 2.64 2.13

SINDH 19.03 30.44 47.89 3.56 2.80 2.41

BALOCHISTAN 4.33 6.57 12.34 7.09 2.47 3.37

ISLAMABAD 0.34 0.81 2.01 4.49 5.19 4.91

CENSUS-2017: POPULATION TRENDS

10

PERCENTAGE POPULATION INCREASE

Province/ AreaPercentage population increase over the Censuses

1972-1981 1981-1998 1998-2017

PAKISTAN 29.0 57.1 57.0

KP 31.8 60.4 72.0

FATA - 11.75 45.5 57.5

PUNJAB 25.7 55.7 49.4

SINDH 34.4 60.00 57.3

BALOCHISTAN 78.1 51.60 88.0

ISLAMABAD - 136.60 149.2

11

ADMN UNITPROVINCIAL SHARE %

1981 1998 2017

PAKISTAN 100.0 100.0 100.0

KP 13.12 13.41 14.69

FATA 2.60 2.40 2.41

PUNJAB 56.13 55.63 52.95

SINDH 22.58 23.00 23.05

BALOCHISTAN 5.14 4.96 5.94

ISLAMABAD 0.40 0.61 0.97

PROVINCIAL SHARE IN NATIONAL POPULATION

12

URBAN TRENDS

ADMN UNIT

URBAN POPULATION %

1981 1998 2017

PAKISTAN 28.3 32.5 36.38

KP 15.1 16.9 17.67

FATA - 2.7 2.83

PUNJAB 27.6 31.3 36.71

SINDH 43.3 48.9 52.02

BALOCHISTAN 15.6 23.3 27.54

ISLAMABAD 60.0 65.6 50.57

13

POPULATION OF MAJOR CITIES

TOP TEN CITIESPOPULATION (IN MILLION)

CENSUS-1998 CENSUS-2017

KARACHI CITY 9.339 14.910

LAHORE CITY 5.143 11.126 (8.123)

FAISALABAD M.CORP. 2.009 3.203

RAWALPINDI CITY 1.410 2.098

GUJRANWALA CITY 1.133 2.027

PESHAWAR CITY 0.983 1.970

MULTAN CITY 1.197 1.872

HYDERABAD CITY 1.167 1.733

ISLAMABAD M.CORP. 0.529 1.015

QUETTA CITY 0.565 1.001

14

DISTRICTSHousehold size

1998

Household Size

2017

Karachi 6.7 5.8

Lahore 7.2 6.3

Faisalabad 7.2 6.4

Hyderabad 6.1 5.1

Quetta 8.7 8.2

Peshawar 8.6 8.7

Sukkur 6.6 5.9

Gujranwala 7.6 6.7

Islamabad 6.2 6.0

Mardan 8.4 7.6

Rawalpindi 6.5 6.1 15

HOUSEHOLD SIZES IN PAKISTAN

SEX WISE POPULATION (Mill. Except Transgender in 000)

ADMIN UNITS1998-Census 2017-Census

Male Female Total Male Female Transgender Total

PAKISTAN 68.87 63.48 132.35 106.45 101.31 10.42 207.77

KP 9.09 8.65 17.74 15.47 15.05 0.91 30.52

FATA 1.65 1.52 3.18 2.56 2.45 0.03 5.00

PUNJAB 38.09 35.53 73.62 55.96 54.05 6.71 110.01

SINDH 16.10 14.34 30.44 24.93 22.96 2.53 47.89

BALOCHISTAN 3.51 3.06 6.57 6.48 5.86 0.11 12.34

ISLAMABAD 0.43 0.37 0.81 1.06 0.95 0.13 2.01

16

SEX RATIOS (NUMBER OF MALES PER 100 FEMALES)

ADMN UNITSEX RATIO (TOTAL) SEX RATIO (RURAL) SEX RATIO (URBAN)

1981 1998 2017 1981 1998 2017 1981 1998 2017

PAKISTAN 110.6 108.1 105.1 108.7 106.4 103.7 115.3 111.9 107.5

KP 108.7 104.3 102.7 107.3 102.8 101.6 117.1 112.3 107.8

FATA 108.3 108.8 104.5 108.3 108.6 104.4 - 119.4 110.4

PUNJAB 110.8 106.9 103.5 109.7 105.6 102.2 114.0 110.0 105.8

SINDH 110.7 111.7 108.6 106.6 110.0 107.8 116.4 113.4 109.3

BALOCHISTAN 111.5 114.9 110.6 109.8 112.8 110.3 121.0 122.0 111.6

ISLAMABAD 118.9 116.2 111.0 110.9 107.8 108.4 124.5 121.0 113.7

17

C: POPULATION GROWTH RATES

ADMN

UNITPOPULATION (mill) ANNUAL GROWTH RATE %

1981 1998 2017 1981 1998 2017

PAKISTAN 84.25 132.35 207.77 3.06 2.69 2.40

18

At the current rate of growth, population of Pakistan will doubleby 2050, if not earlier.

19

GROWTH RATES OF SOME SELECTED COUNTRIES

• India 1.2,

• Bangladesh 1.36,

• Sri Lanka 0.9,

• Afghanistan 2.34

• United States 0.7,

• China 0.5,

• World 1.2

• Pakistan 2.4

20

21

RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS

• No concern raised over this high rate at any level,government or otherwise.

• Present arrangement rewards high population growth regionswith higher financial, political and administrativedispensations.

• Such a high population growth rate calls for a nationalemergency.

• But Population Planning is not fashionable. Bringing growthrate down is a complex, multi dimensional issue. Slow results.

• Need to learn from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka

D: CONTROVERSY OF KARACHI VS LAHORE POPULATION

22

• Comparison of population growth of Karachi City Vs. Lahore City.

• Under coverage of Karachi City in the Census operation.

• Population estimates by United Nations ESA

• Issuance of CNICs by NADRA.

• Voters in both cities

• Population estimation by Punjab Urban Unit.

• Population estimation by NIPS

KARACHI CITY VS LAHORE CITY POPULATION

23

• Various comments aired that Karachi population is 25 / 30 mil.instead of 14.9 mil. as per Census-2017.

• Boundary of Karachi city not extended except Urbanization ofseven Dehs.

• Lahore population in 1998 was 5.143 mil. Census-2017 showspopulation of 11.13 mil.

• In 2015, Punjab Govt. declared entire Lahore district includingtwo UCs of Kasur District as Lahore City.

Cities Population Census

1998

Population Census

2017

Growth

Rate

Percentage

Change

Karachi 9,339,023 14,910,352 2.49 59.66

Lahore 5,143,495 11,126,285 4.14 116.32

24

LAHORE – KARACHI GROWTH RATE

25

LAHORE – KARACHI GROWTH RATE

LahorePopulation

1998

Population

2017

Growth

Rate

Percentage

Change

Urban(as per 1998) 5,143,495 8,123,193 2.43 57.93

Rural (as per 1998) 1,196,619 2,956,106 4.9 147.03

Two union councils added to

Lahore city46,986

Lahore City/District 6,340,114 11,126,285 3.00 75.49

26

UNDER COVERAGE IN KARACHI

• A table purportedly prepared by NADRA has been presentedin the Senate in support of Karachi under coverage claim.

• The table, without date and number, has been formallydisowned by NADRA.

• The population per MNA constituency in 2013 was around0.48 mill. It was not 1.0 mill population.

27

KARACHI STATISTICS

28

29

30

31

32

33

ISSUANCE OF CNIC ON THE BASIS OF ADDRESSES

Number of CNICs issued in Lahore. 5.99 Mil.

Number of CNICs issued in Karachi 8.51 Mil.

According to PSLM, PDHS and other Surveys the percentage of 18 and above age group in Pakistan is 53.5%.

As per number of CNIC issued, Karachi Population computes to 16.03 Mil.

As per number of CNIC issued, Lahore Population computes to 11.30 Mil.

34

VOTERS GROWTH

• Number of voters in Lahore in 1997 2.19 Mil.

• Number of voters in Lahore in 2017 4.94 Mil.

• Increase in number of voters in Lahore 125.6 %

• Number of voters in Karachi in 1997 3.63 Mil.

• Number of voters in Karachi in 2017 7.94 Mil.

• Increase in number of voters in Karachi 118.5 %

35

PUNJAB URBAN UNIT PROJECTIONS 2017

• Using satellite data and Landscan software of US Departmentof Energy, the Punjab Urban Unit estimated the populationof the country.

• PUU has also estimated the population of Karachi and Lahore.

PUNJAB URBAN UNIT

36

Estimating Cities’ Population CountKarachi

Karachi Area (Sq.Km)LS Population

2017

City Boundary 936 14,400,961

MC Boundary 3,720 15,022,659

Census 2017 Population:14,910,352

Legend

District Boundary

City Boundary

Builtup

Legend

MetropolitanCorporationBoundary

City Boundary

Builtup

Legend

MetropolitanCorporationBoundary

City Boundary

Builtup

Legend

MetropolitanCorporationBoundary

City Boundary

Builtup

Lahore Area (Sq.Km)LS Population

2017

City Boundary 665 9.569,952

MC Boundary 1,761 10,591,636

Census 2017 Population: 11,126,285

Estimating Cities’ Population CountLahore

39

POPULATION ESTIMATIONS BY NIPS 2016

POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY NIPS-PROVINCES

Indicators Punjab Sindh KP Balochistan

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 3.47 3.57 3.59 3.93

ContraceptivePrevalence Rate (CPR)

39% 29% 28% 20%

Infant mortality Rate(per 1000 live births)

60.2 57.9 60.8 76.2

Under five mortalityRate (per 1000 livebirths)

83.3 79.7 84.5 109.9

Life Expectancy 67.3 years 67.8 years 67.1 years 63.4 years

Life Expectancy (M) 66.5 years 66.8 years 66.7 years 63.1 years

Life Expectancy (F) 68.1 years 69.0 years 67.5 years 63.6 years

Sex Ratio 106 109 106 111

Projected Population2017 by NIPS

110,036,299 47,580,974 28,363,848 10,667,848

Census-2017 110,012,442 47,886,051 30,523,371 12,344,408

THANK YOU

41

Trends in Fertility In Punjab & Sindh

Surveys TFR (P) TFR(S)

Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (PCPS) 1984-85 6.2 5.2

Pakistan Fertility & Family Planning Survey 1996-97 5.3 4.96

Pakistan Demographic & Health Survey(PDHS) 2006-07 3.9 4.3

Pakistan Demographic & Health Survey(PDHS) 2012-13 3.8 3.9

Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey(MICS) 2014 3.5 4

Trends in Contraception In Punjab & Sindh

Surveys CPR (P) CPR(S)

Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (PCPS) 1984-859.3 9.6

Pakistan Fertility & Family Planning Survey 1996-9726.8 23.4

Pakistan Demographic & Health Survey(PDHS) 2006-0733 26.7

Pakistan Demographic & Health Survey(PDHS) 2012-1341 30

Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey(MICS) 201439 29

46

INTERNATIONAL / NATIONAL OBSERVERS

47

Sr. No. International Observer National Observer Area Visited

1 Ms. Uzoma Okoye Dr. Nausheen Mehmood North Punjab

Mr. Gohar Ayub

2 Mr. Emmanuel Igah Dr. Nausheen Raza Sindh

Mr. Ameen Hussain

3 Mr. Sola Asa Dr. Rasheeda Panazai KP and AJ&K

Mr. Jamil Ahmed Chitrali

4 Mr. Ronnie Anderson Dr. Mujeeb ur Rehman Gilgit

Dr. Asif Wazir

5 Mr. Ricardo Neupert Syed Muhammad Nabeel Balochistan

Dr. Asad Ullah

6 Dr. Rafique Chandio South Punjab

Dr. Zilakat Khan Malik

Mr. Arsalan Rasool

POPULATION TRENDS FOR CENSUS-2017

• Population of Pakistan, according to Provisional Summaryresults of Census-2017, comes out to be 207.77 mil. as comparedto 132.352 mil. recorded in Census-1998.

• Compound Average Annual Growth Rate has been observed as2.40 over Census-1998-2017 against 2.69 observed during 1981-1998.

• A decline of 0.29 in population growth rate has been observedat national level.

• Percentage increase in population recorded as 57% over theCensus 1998 and 146.6% over the Census held in 1981.

• At current rate of Growth, Population of Pakistan will double in32 years. 48

PROVINCIAL SHARE IN NATIONAL POPULATION

In Census 2017 provincial shares in total population show

variation as compared to 1998-Census.

• KP, has gained from 13.41 to 14.69 percent.

• Balochistan has also gained from 4.96 to 5.94 percent.

• FATA is slightly up from 2.40 to 2.41 percent.

• Sindh slightly up from 23.00 to 23.05 percent.

• ICT up from 0.61 to 0.97 percent.

• Punjab share has reduced from 55.63 to 52.95 percent

• This variation will impact on the political representation.

49

URBAN / RURAL TRENDS

• Urban population at national level has increased from 32.5 % in

1998 to 36.4 % in Census-2017.

• Sindh is the most urbanized province having 52.02% population

in urban areas.

• Three major cities i.e. Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur account

for 68.82% (17.14 Mil.) of total urban population of Sindh.

• Punjab is the second most urbanized province where 36.71%

population lives in cities.

• The least urbanized Province is KP where only 17.67%

population lives in cities.50

URBAN / RURAL POPULATION (Mill) – NOTIFIED URBAN AREAS

ADMIN UNITS1998-CENSUS 2017-CENSUS

Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total

PAKISTAN 43.04 89.32 132.35 75.58 132.19 207.77

KP 2.99 14.75 17.74 5.73 24.79 30.52

FATA 0.09 3.09 3.18 0.14 4.86 5.00

PUNJAB 23.02 50.60 73.62 40.39 69.63 110.01

SINDH 14.84 15.60 30.44 24.91 22.98 47.89

BALOCHISTAN 1.57 5.00 6.57 3.40 8.94 12.34

ICT 0.53 0.28 0.81 1.01 0.99 2.00

51

Reallocation of Seats of NA – 2017 Census (FATA unchanged)

Provinces Population in 6th

CensusShare in NA

Seats General seats re-

allocation

BALOCHISTAN 12,344,408 15.82 16

(+2)

KP 30,523,371 39.13 39

(+4)

PUNJAB 110,012,442 141.06 141

(- 7)

SINDH 47,886,051 61.40 61

(Same)

FATA 12

ICT 2,006,572 2.57 3 (+1)

TOTAL 202,772,844 272

SEX RATIOS

• Sex ratio i.e. number of males over hundred females at nationallevel has been observed as 105.1 against 108.1 recorded in 1998Census.

• Sex ratio is higher in urban areas as compared to rural areas.

• Sex ratio has declined at national as well as all the Provinces /Areas. It followed the same declining pattern as per past twocensuses.

• Significant decline has been observed in Balochistan where Sexratio has gone down from 122 to 111.6.

53

PROVINCE WISE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS OF PAKISTAN (Contd.)

ADMN UNITNUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS (in mill.)

1981-CENSUS 1998-CENSUS 2017-CENSUS

PAKISTAN 12.85 19.21 32.21

of which Urban (%) 3.55 (27.70) 6.03 (31.39) 12.19 (37.85)

KP1.62 2.21 3.85

of which Urban (%)0.24 (14.81) 0.37 (16.74) 0.74 (19.22)

FATA0.26 0.34 0.56

of which Urban (%) - 0.01 (2.94) 0.20 (35.71)

PUNJAB7.54 10.54 17.10

of which Urban (%) 1.97 (26.13) 3.20 (30.36) 6.39 (37.37)

SINDH2.78 5.02 8.59

of which Urban (%) 1.20 (43.17) 2.17 (43.23) 4.40 (51.22)54

PROVINCE WISE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS OF PAKISTAN

ADMN UNITNUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS (in mill.)

1981-CENSUS 1998-CENSUS 2017-CENSUS

BALOCHISTAN 0.59 0.97 1.78

of which Urban (%) 0.09 (15.25) 0.19 (19.59) 0.47 (26.40)

ISLAMABAD 0.06 0.13 0.34

of which Urban (%) 0.04 (66.67) 0.09 (69.23) 0.17 (50.00)

55