6 Growing Global Stresses and How to Handle Them

www.TransitionWise.org

Career Quakes Career Quakes

Mitch LawrieM.Ed (Career Guidance) CDAAB. Regional & Town Planning (Hons)

Six Converging Global Stresses& What They May Mean for

Careers!

Six Converging Global Stresses& What They May Mean for

Careers!

CDAA Conference 2010

Some Suggested “Ground Rules”

Respect for everyone

Remember... Time is precious

Please ask... happy to answer questions but I will also need to keep things moving

Please contribute... But don’t monopolize discussion

Speak up so everyone can hear

Self-responsibility – for what you give & gain from the workshop

Mobile phones off

Confidentiality

A Show of Hands...

Who is familiar with “Peak Oil”? Who thinks it may be a problem for Australia? Who thinks climate change may be a problem for

Australia? Who thinks exponential growth is an issue for us? Who has heard of the 1972 book “The Limits to Growth”?

Anyone read it? Who thinks conventional economists have a good

understanding of the economy and the world? Who thinks things will go on much the same and we’ll be

having national conferences like this in 10 years time?

Overview Core cultural belief since Industrial Revolution

– “economic growth is good, essential and unending”

Our beliefs about work & the economy have formed during this unique period of growth

Career theory & practice takes place totally within this unquestioned cultural narrative

Strong evidence global stresses are approaching tipping points that will prove this belief incorrect... Growth will stop

Society, the world of work & careers will enter a “Great Transition”... major change “quakes” within the next 10 years

?

If True…

Huge impacts on you

Personally

Professionally

And on your clients

Evidence? I will only briefly introduce the evidence today

The scope of this presentation is large and rarely traversed in the careers field

Needs 1 day... I had to cut >150 slides!

For now please just consider the “end of growth” as a hypothesis... A possible future... And use today as a chance to consider the implications

Please do follow up research to make up your own mind – go to my site:

www.TransitionWise.org for the more details and links to further evidence or just Google

“People will rarely acknowledge that an accustomed way of life is unsustainable except in the face of prolonged, devastating failure.”

Joseph Tainter – author of…

This Is A Deeply Unpopular Subject

The ruling “gods” of our culture – Technology and the Market

Our Saviours?

Warning: Some People May Not Like

This Presentation

Normal reaction when core cultural beliefs are challenged

Other Common Reactions to Major Belief Challenges

Denial Anger Bargaining Fear & anxiety Depression Acceptance Action

(adapted from Kubler-Ross 5 Stages of Grief)

Society In Denial

Most societies are in denialabout what we are facing

Politicians don’t like to bring bad news or oppose established paradigms… prophets tend to get stoned, not re-elected

It is easy to belittle a viewpoint which goes against the hugely dominant cultural narrative

Those who question the feasibility of never-ending growth are accused of being hysterical “doomers” or being “negative”

Confusion Of Realms

Inner

Human

No limits

Creativity

Positive belief

Growth is always good

Outer

Physical

Limits

Sensitivity

Realistic belief

Growth always ends

Experience

Subjective

Impacts

Objective

My Purpose

Purpose of presentation is not to depress you... but empower you

Provide useful insights and help you prepare

NOTNOT

Workshop Outline

Six Growing Global Stresses (or “why growth will fail ”)

Putting It All Together – Our Probable Future

Labour Market and Career Impacts

How Can We Prepare?


Global Stress 1

World Oil Production Limits

- The Problem of “Peak Oil”

Chapter 1

Cheap Oil… Our Society is Built on It!!Absolutely crucial for:

• Transport• Food• Housing• Products

All made with oil!

Most current careers wouldn’t exist without it!

ONE U.S. POLITICIAN WHO FULLY UNDERSTOOD THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL

Energy is truly fundamental to the world’s economy.

The Gulf War was a reflection of that reality.… (Oil) is the basic, fundamental building block of the world's economy.

Dick Cheney,

Former U.S. Vice-President, London, 1999

LOOMING WORLD OIL LOOMING WORLD OIL PROBLEMS:PROBLEMS:

MYTHS AND REALITIESMYTHS AND REALITIES

Keynote Address at

Largest Logistics Conference in Southern Hemisphere

The Smart Conference 2007Sydney

Roger H. Bezdek. Ph.D., President

Management Information Services, Inc.

Washington, D.C. USA

WHY WILL CONVENTIONAL

OIL PRODUCTION PEAK?

Time - Decades

Pro

du

ctio

n

Oil Fields Peak

1945 2000Year

Pro

du

cti

on

U.S Lower 48 States

The world will peak

(All regions)

Regions Peak (Many oil fields)

WORLD IS CONSUMING MORE OILAND FINDING LESS

Past discovery by ExxonMobil

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Bil

lio

ns

of

Ba

rrel

s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Past

Future

Production

“GrowingGap”

Peak Oil for Individual Nations Japan: 1932 Germany: 1966 Libya: 1970 Venezuela: 1970 USA: 1970 Iran: 1974 Nigeria: 1979 Trinidad & Tobago: 1981 Egypt: 1987 France: 1988 Indonesia: 1991 Syria: 1996 India: 1997 New Zealand: 1997 UK: 1999 Argentina: 1999

Colombia: 1999 Norway: 2000 Oman: 2000 Australia: 2000 Mexico: 2004 Russia: 2007 United Arab Emirates? Algeria?

Estimated future peak oil years: Kuwait: 2013 Saudi Arabia: 2014 Iraq: 2018 China ? (close) Brazil ? Canada ? Kazakstan & Azerbaijan ?

Source: Wikipedia.org

WHEN MIGHT WORLD PEAKING OCCUR?Different Approximations Lead to Different Forecasts

Forecast Source

December 2005 Deffeyes (U.S.)

2006-2007 Bakhitari (Iran)

2006-2007 Simmons (U.S.)

2010 +/- Skrebowski (U.K.)

2010 Campbell (Ireland)

Before 2010 Goodstein (U.S.)

After 2010 World Energy Council

2012 Weng (China)

2020 IEA (Paris-based monitor)

After 2020 CERA (U.S.)

2030 or later EIA (U.S. Govt)

5 years

5-15 years

> 20 years

Already

Just A Few of The Headlines

Oil reserves 'exaggerated by one third' Sydney Morning Herald March 24, 2010 The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, Britain's former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years.

Business calls for urgent action on “oil crunch” threat to UK economy London, 10 February, 2010: A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015.

Richard Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years UK Guardian article 7th February 2010

Queensland Oil Vulnerability Taskforce

Established by the Qld State Government in 2005…

“The Taskforce concludes that Queensland’s vulnerability to peaking of world oil supplies, and to world supply disruptions, is particularly acute given our oil supply and demand trends, as well as our regionally distributed population and industrial base.”

TECHNOLOGY & PRICE MAY NOT SAVE USU. S. Lower 48 Oil Production

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

80

0

Production

Price

Dramatic Improvement in Oil

Field Technology

PRODUCTION(Billions of

Barrels per Year)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Trends were not reversed, and continued decline is forecast

PRICE(2003 $ per

barrels)

RENEWABLES WILL SAVE US?

Not necessarily. Long time to scale up.

Major renewables do not produce significant liquid transportation fuels

WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN AT PEAKING?

WORLD OIL DEMAND

grows each year in a

healthy world economy

WORLD OIL PRODUCTION

reaches a maximum &

then declines

Supply cannot meet

demand

• PRICES INCREASE

• SHORTAGES DEVELOP

Time

GROWING OIL SHORTAGES WILL INDUCE GROWING WORLD “DEMAND DESTRUCTION”

Su

pp

ly

Supply & Demand in

Balance

Minimal Disruption

Recession Depression

Demand Destruction

OIL PRICE & RECESSIONS

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Recession

OIL PRICE

(2003 $ per

barrel)

Over 30 years, four recessions followed oil price spikes.

NOT TO WORRY, WORLD WILL MUDDLE THROUGH?

Not true. We should be very worried.

The problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society.

Previous energy transitions, from wood to coal and from coal to oil, were gradual and evolutionary.

World may be facing an imminent energy discontinuity that will be abrupt and painful.

World has yet to grasp this or its implications.

There will be no quick fixes for this problem, on either the demand side or the supply side. (“Hirsch Report”)

Many analysts and policy-makers do not comprehend this.

There’s the bad news and the good news...

The Bad News... We Peaked in 2000

Australia’s oil imports have risen to 30-40% of net

CSIRO – Future Fuels Forum – 2008

Forum included:

Caltex Engineers Australia Holden NRMA Qld Rail Chevron Victorian Government Woolworths Australian Automobile Association Biofuels Association of Australia

Forum: Key Conclusions Australia is more vulnerable than some

other countries due to our high vehicle use, high fuel consumption by vehicles, and declining domestic reserves of conventional oil.

Petrol prices could increase to as high as A$8 per litre by 2018.

Transport intensive activities such as tourism and mining would be most vulnerable.

If This Is Starting To Get You Down...Then Don’t Despair

The Good News... Coal Seam Methane Gas Reserves in Central Qld

Massive reserves, but it will take years to develop and we will be paying the (high) international price.

Vehicles can be converted to run on CNG but it takes significant time and large investments.

Where Does This Leave Australia?

Better off than some countries but not immune... All countries today are strongly linked in the global economy

Will also need to cope with other global stresses around the same time


Global Stress 2

The Climate Change Wildcard

Chapter 2

Confusing & Controversial!

BUT....

“In the end, it's important not to lose sight of the forest for the trees, where the ‘forest' refers to the totality of scientific evidence for global warming.”

Richard L. Smith, in newsletter of American Statistical Association, Section on Statistics & the Environment,

Spring 2007 issue

Totality of Scientific Evidence is Clear

If You Are Not Sure Who To Believe Read This Book

Balanced examination of both sides of the argument by a “non-greenie”

Gareth Morgan, CEO of his own investment company, couldn't decide whether he believed in climate change or not, so he hired the best international scientists from both sides to answer his questions and these are his findings.

Reveals how both sides have their mistakes and weaknesses

The Verdict: on the balance of probabilities climate change is going to be a real problem

Sudden, Unpredictable and Irreversible

“Since the IPCC report came out in 2007, new data point to even more alarming scenarios.

We underestimate the risk and ignore the fact that the planet is threatened with "sudden, unpredictable, and irreversible disaster.”

Steve ChuUnited States Secretary of Energy Nobel Prize-Winning Professor of Physics & Molecular Biology

Tipping Points

Biggest concern of climate scientists

They don’t know exactly when Could start “positive feedback

loops”... Melting ice and snow Tropical jungles dry out and burn Frozen deposits in permafrost and

ocean floor release methane

Runaway climate change!

“I am not exaggerating in saying the survival of civilisation is at stake.”

Professor Ian LoweEmeritus Professor of Science, Technology and Society

at Griffith University

Australia... The Lucky Country?

Climate change could mean our luck has run out...

Warning From The CSIRO

Australia’s climate change impacts include:

More heatwaves

Reductions in average rainfall

More frequent El Nino events (droughts)

Sea level rise

Rainfall is declining in Eastern Australia

SOURCE: National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, 2008.

Warning From The Garnaut Report

Mitigation will come too late to avoid substantial damage from climate change.

Not feasible for governments to underwrite maintenance of established patterns of life for all people in all places.


Global Stress 3

The Dangerous Nature of Exponential Growth- Ticking Time Bombs

Chapter 3

“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”

Al BartlettProfessor of Physics

University of Colorado

How Exponential Growth Looks

“It has taken all of human history for the economy to reach its current size. On current form it will take just two decades to double.”

– New Scientist Magazine, Oct

2008

Reaches a Point Where Even 3.6% Per Year Becomes Huge

What It Means...

Only A Massive One-Off Drawdown of Fossil Fuels Has Enabled This Growth

Exponential Growth – Always Temporary in a Finite World

Population and GDP can not grow exponentially without limits

“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist."

Kenneth Boulding (1910-1993) – Economist & Philosopher

Growth Always Ends

The questions remaining are...

Will it be a “soft landing” or a “hard landing”?

And when?


Global Stress 4

Multiple Other Limits to Growth

Chapter 4

Not Just Peak Oil... “Peak Many Things” In The Next 20 Years

Food production Topsoil Phosphorous Fish Water supplies Some minerals –

silver, platinum, copper, zinc lead, tin & rare earth minerals

Even Major Technical Breakthroughs May Have Already Peaked

Source: Jonathan Huebner – Physicist, US Naval Air Warfare Center

Special Report: How our economy is killing the Earth – New Scientist, 18 Oct

2008

Water useVehiclesCo2GDPPopulationLoss of rainforest and woodlandsSpecies extinctionFisheries exploitation

World Is In Overshoot

“A Comparison of "The Limits to Growth" with Thirty Years of Reality”

Graham Turner - CSIRO Working Paper June 2008 found:

“Limits to Growth” (1972, MIT - Club of Rome) study was falsely attacked

30 years of historical data fits their "standard run" scenario

1972 2002

Business as Usual - “Standard Run” Scenario

Other Findings from “Limits to Growth” Computer Simulation

If you remove or raise one limit but keep growing exponentially you encounter another surprisingly soon

Globalization of trade means that most of the world will reach limits around the same time

If you put off early limits through economic and technological innovations you are more likely to run into several limits at about the same time

Lesser developed countries likely to fail first... may then have a domino effect on other countries

World will not totally run out of any one resource... what it runs out of is the ability to cope due to multiple problems impacting in a short time span

Ability to Cope... The Real Limit As resources deplete... (e.g. peak oil)

As pollution levels rise... (e.g. climate change)

The costs of compensating have to be paid out of current economic output, leaving less and less for other uses, until economic output itself begins to fall and the industrial world begins its terminal decline.

Technology & Markets – Best Case Assumptions Still Lead to Collapse

“In several scenarios we test accelerated technological advance and possible future technical leaps beyond these ‘normal’ improvements. What if materials are almost entirely recycled? What if land yield doubles again and yet again? What if emissions are reduced at 4% per year over the coming century?

Even with the most effective technologies and the greatest economic resilience that we believe is possible, if these are the only changes, the model tends to generate scenarios of collapse.”

(The Limits to Growth – The Thirty Year Update p. 204-5)

Confronting Reality…

“In the 21st century, the human race must finally confront the reality that in the closed system that is planet earth, there are limits to growth.

No matter how clever we are, there is no escaping the physical limits of the world's resources.

The laws of physics trump the laws of economics every time.”

Andrew McNamara, Former Queensland Minister for Sustainability,

Climate Change and Innovation.


Global Stress 5

House of Cards Economic System

Chapter 5

This is no normal recession!

“this is the end of an era.”

George Soros - 2008

GFC = Early Warning Tremor... Growing System Instability

Mainstream Economics Is Misguided

Failed to predict or prevent GFC

In fact, mainstream “Neoclassical” economics is not a science but a belief system based on false assumptions

Ignores crucial real world issues – debt load, social costs, resource and ecological limits, how humans really behave

Tends to serve the existing power structure

Now giving improbable predictions

Unfortunately, government actions based on it!

“Conventional economics is the dominant intellectual rationalization of today's world order.

Breakdown will, all at once, discredit this rationalization and create intellectual space for new ideas to flourish.”

Professor Thomas Homer-Dixon Author of The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of

Civilization - winner of the 2006 National Business Book Award

Alternative Views Needed!

Here are 2…

1. Debt Deflation Perspective

“Consumer debt expansion is the fuel that kept the U.S. economy alive.”

“The growth of debt has outstripped the growth of income to such an extent that an increase in consumer credit and bank lending is not possible.”

Paul Roberts Former Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, 2008

Unsustainable Debt Triggers Crashes – 1890s, 1930s, & Now

Global Banking & Financial System = Giant Ponzi Scheme

It has to keep growing or it collapses

Because almost all money is lent into existence by the world’s banks - the only way the debt can be paid back with interest is if the economy keeps expanding

Otherwise we get bank failures and collapses as in the US, UK and Europe in recent years

System is inherently unstable without exponential growth – this is why G20 nations desperate to prop up growth and have thrown trillions of dollars to stimulate growth

Governments Have Only Bought Some Time

Only delays the problems as the new government debt increases societies’ total debt

Debt levels are now unsustainable – must come down

But there is too much debt for it all to be paid back when oil is declining, populations aging etc. ... Only other options - defaults followed by hyperinflation

This means a lot of volatility... Deflation, hyperinflation causing economic disruptions with massive impacts on trade and employment

(see www.chrismartenson.com )

Sometimes A Politicians Lets It Slip That They Too Are Concerned About Debt

“I’m rather pessimistic about the long-term global outlook for a whole host of reasons...

If too much debt got the world into this problem, then too much sovereign debt is not going to get the world out of this problem.”

Shadow Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey

Business Spectator 29 July 2009

2. Ecological Economics Perspective

Once Again… Limits to Growth

According to Professor Herman Daly (former Senior Economist at the World Bank and one of the founders of ecological economics )…

Virtual assets (fiat money, bank lending, derivatives) are growing exponentially so large there will not be enough real, physical assets for them to claim in the future

Real wealth is constrained by both source end (e.g. peak oil) and sink end (e.g. capacity of atmosphere to absorb CO2 – climate change) “limits to growth”

Real wealth limits will destabilise the paper wealth system


Global Stress 6

Black Swans – The Unknown Unexpected

Chapter 6

Historical Turning Points Determined by “Black

Swans” Events

Highly improbable events which are... Unpredictable Massive impact Unexpected and under-estimated Easy to explain only AFTER the event

Example : 9/11attack

Nassim Taleb

Black Swan Events

An over-populated, highly interconnected world is increasingly vulnerable to things such as…

Global virus pandemics

Major terrorist attack (eg. Water supplies or dirty nuke)

Middle East war or uprising cutting oil supplies – especially in Saudi Arabia or Iran

Or some other natural or man-made disaster… most likely none of the above… the unknown something we never saw coming!

Discuss in Groups of 3

What do you think the future will hold?

How will this 6 global threats affect the next 10 years... And the next 100 years?

Some volunteers can share with the group... 1 or 2 points of discussion from their triad


Putting It All Together

- Our Probable Future

Chapter 7

The 3 “Big E’s” Are Converging

Environ-ment

EconomyEnergy

YOU

3 E’s will interact in increasing unpredictable ways

Ultimately Environment and Energy will determine Economy

Exp

onen

tial G

rowt

h

Socie

ty

Exp

onen

tial G

rowt

h

Socie

ty

Energy & Resource UseEnergy & Resource Use Population Pollution Pollution

ClimaxClimax

Techno-ExplosionTechno-Explosion

Green-Tech StabilityGreen-Tech Stability

Earth stewardshipEarth stewardship

Collapse Collapse

Great Grand Great Grand ChildrenChildren

AgricultureAgriculture10.000yrs BP10.000yrs BP

Industrial Industrial RevolutionRevolution

Baby BoomBaby Boom

Pre-industrial sustainable culture

Pre-industrial sustainable culture

Historical Time Future Time

Creative Descent - Deliberate

Creative Descent - Deliberate

Powerdown

Powerdown

4 Future Scenarios(adapted from David Holmgren www.futurescenarios.org )

Limits to Growth Modelling Suggests Techno-Explosion & Green Tech Stability

The Least Likely

Don’t Be Fooled By Current Achievements

As Jared Diamond points out in 'Collapse', often civilizations notoriously produce their most massive buildings and monuments just before they collapse

I’m reminded of the just completed $3.2 billion hole in the ground in Brisbane – The Clem Jones tunnel under the Brisbane River

Important Points!

How humane and positive the descent is depends on how soon we abandon our denial and attempts to maintain growth economics

No growth in economic scale does NOT have to mean no developments in culture, appropriate technology, education, quality of life and human well being!

The Questions Are... Will we have a soft landing?

Will the elites that run the nexus of corporate-government power listen in time?

Will the cultural tipping points be reached in time?

Will enough people makes changes in how they live, work and think to force change?

Or will we have a hard crash!

At Some Point... Expect Some Shocks to the System

“ ... empires behave like all complex adaptive systems. They function in apparent equilibrium for some unknowable period.

And then, quite abruptly, they collapse.”

Niall Ferguson - Professor at Harvard Business School

Energy Descent Scenarios – Smooth Transition Is Least Likely in Real World

Source: www.megatrends2020.com

Erratic Descent with Sharp Falls & Partial Recoveries Most Likely

Powerdown Stages

Four stages of dominant economic activity:

1. Abundance industrialism (current growth stage)

2. Scarcity industrialism (first decline stage - next few decades)

3. Salvage societies – when a civilization breaks down, the most efficient economies for a time are those that use its legacies as raw material (latter half of this century)

4. Ecotechnic societies - ecologically balanced and fully sustainable (next century)

Adapted from “The Ecotechnic Future” by John Michael Greer

Powerdown Stages

These 4 stages will blur into each other as the resources of our abundance industrial society run down.

Here in Australia we need to prepare for scarcity industrialism for at least the next 2-3 decades

Characteristics of “Collapse”

Collapse doesn't necessarily mean annihilation or a “Mad Max” world

It means returning to a less complex society

Will happen differently in different locations

Sometimes a slow, grinding, almost imperceptible decline, and sometimes a rapid fall triggered by events

Nobody really knows how gradual or abrupt “collapse” may be in your part of the world!

Outlook

Overall our society is most likely to be on a bumpy plateau for the next 10 years

But some of the bumps could be quite surprising!

The closer we get to 2020 the higher the risk of a sudden system failure (hard crash) as a result of a Black Swan event in combination with the other 5 global stresses


Labour Market &

Career Impacts

Chapter 8

Next 10 Years(My Expectations)

May be as late as 2014 before world oil demand recovers enough to reveal oil production limits and create very high oil prices.

High oil prices will result in many flow-on price rises

Economy will contract in real terms

Areas remote from major centres and cheap transport (train & ship) will especially suffer from higher costs for goods & services

Next 10 Years Middle class with large debt most vulnerable

Businesses and careers delivering expensive, non-essential goods and services to the middle class will contract

Economic localization will rise as it becomes cheaper to make more things locally again

Many products will continue to be made by machines... but increasingly repaired locally by hand (embodied energy in products will be more valued)

Decline of permanent, full-time jobs... growth of the informal economy – unofficial, under-the-table activities from barter to blackmarkets

Unemployment Will Increase... Dejobbing

Next 10 Years Forced entrepreneurship... one example of this... In

1932, the New York Times observed that in NY city in: 1928 – 200 shoe shiners (most of them children 1932 - 7,000 shoe shiners (most of them adults)

Many not able to afford to retire – this is already happening in the USA (end of the era of “grey nomads” etc.)

Many white collar, tourism, mining and construction jobs will be vulnerable – think through the impacts of high fuel prices e.g. demise of cheap flights

Alternative energy sector will expand – particularly Coal Seam Methane Gas (CSG) in eastern Australia (close to markets)

Next 10 Years

As energy per capita declines tipping points, breakdowns or Black Swans will be reached resulting in less economic system capacity to support complexity

Another trend reversal will result... decreased job specialisation

We will need a “Great Reskilling” – how to do practical things for ourselves and our neighbours

Stepping Down Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

Our economy is mostly discretionary spending... not needed for survival!

Spending focus will shift to lower order needs – security and physical needs

From nice-to-have things to need-to-have things

Job Shift – From Wants to Needs

Discretionary Jobs (nice-to-have things)

Less employment here:

Mobile dog baths Beautician Luxury goods salesperson Market analyst Tourism Fitness trainer Party planner Spa installer Legal academic Stock broker

Necessary Jobs (need-to-have things)

More employment here:

Farmer Health practitioner Carpenter (e.g. altering large

houses for higher occupancy) Plumber Security services and products Renewable energy installer Auto LPG converter Repairer Electrician

Decline In Agricultural Employment Will Reverse

After its “peak oil” in early 90’s Cuba found that it required 15 –25% of its population to become involved in food production.

Food prices will rise. Agricultural employment may increase from about 3% to 15% (or higher) of total employment… practicing low input intensive farming

Men Will Be Hardest Hit

The Soviet Union collapse experience demonstrated that some people adapt poorly

Men, especially middle-aged successful men, are most vulnerable

Just completely lose it... mental health problems, family breakdown and alcohol and drug problems

Especially if no identity other than career... Community, friends, spirituality and hobbies really important


How Can We Prepare?

Chapter 9

Powerdown & Career Development

Even if you do not view this as the most likely future scenario the magnitude of the potential impacts in conjunction with the precautionary principle suggest it still deserves our attention.

Career development is a specialised field which will shrink a lot if we do not adapt to be of value in the new era.

Will need to start preparing early for these historical changes.

Group Discussion

At your table form small groups (4-6 participants) Find someone willing to takes some notes and later....

briefly share with all of us Brainstorm ideas on how can we respond to these

challenges and prepare in the following areas:1. Psychological strategies (for ourselves and others)

2. Practical strategies (for ourselves and others)

3. Career strategies (for ourselves and others)

4. Career Development Practice strategies (for our daily work with clients or students)

We Need to Prepare…

As individuals (psychologically and practically)

As families and networks of friends

As workers (career managers) & business owners

As communities

As a nation

Some to get you started...


Psychological Strategies

Why Bother?? It All Seems Too Hard!

Prepare... help yourself so you can help others more in the future.

You will be needed!

(Find meaning in your new life)

Human Potential Is Still Amazing!

Inner

Human

No limits

Creativity

Positive belief

Growth is always good

Outer

Physical

Limits

Sensitivity

Realistic belief

Growth always ends

Experience

Subjective

Impacts

Objective

Good News… “The Myth of the Great Depression”

David Potts – Former historian at La Trobe Uni Extensive research including 12,000 interviews Found media image over-emphasised suffering Found many good aspects to life in 1930s No increase in suicide, mental illness, malnutrition Health of the community as a whole actually improved “We were poor but happy!” “Feel sorry for the kids of today.” Sources of happiness: doing things together, being in the

same boat and feeling closer, “being philosophical,” family, self-expression (singing & dancing), helping others, sport and for some, freedom from a boring job.

Strong evidence for potential for happiness when poverty is familiar, manageable and not isolating

This Is An Opportunity For Personal Growth and Rediscovery

“To be thrown upon one's own resources, is to be cast into the very lap of fortune; for our faculties then undergo a development and display an energy of which they were previously unsusceptible.”

— Benjamin Franklin

Consider The Possibility…

If poverty is just less stuff But more connection and meaning Those who are willing to let go of their old beliefs and

attachments Can actually be happier!!

Our Greatest Challenge?

The rise of consumerism, individualism and industrial alienation has weakened the values, stories and habits which enabled our ancestors to live & work together in hard times...

Have we become “human lites”?!

Fundamental challenge on both an individual and planet level is “spiritual” i.e. our deep inner beliefs... How we perceive and connect to ourselves, others, and the world


Practical Strategies

Preparing For What?

Two key scenarios you may wish to prepare for:1. Economic contraction / hard times (on the

bumpy plateau) lower real incomes and higher unemployment e.g. the USA today

2. Major System breakdowns (a sharp drop) which may cause... Financial collapses – banks, employers,

government services , insurance companies, superannuation funds

Disruptions to support systems – infrastructure and “just in time” food & product delivery systems e.g. supermarkets, water and electricity

Risk Reduction Planning

1. Decide to act – if not ready… educate yourself more on 6 Global Stresses and our predicament

2. Identify and rank your key threats

3. Self assess – Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of your and your situation

4. Brainstorm and prioritize actions

A list – easiest, quickest, cheapest

B list – big, important needs

C list – the rest

When Brainstorming Consider... Life Areas = Your Resilience Zones

Money

Health

Spirit

Career

Family

Friends

You

Personal Risk Reduction Tips

Monitor trends via specialised internet sources, not mainstream media

Learn to allow for and balance the biases of each information source

Plan, prepare and act early

Assess your location – consider access to work, services, transport, food, family and friends

Invest in yourself - learn practical new skills for hobbies eg. Growing food (permaculture, aquaponics), beer brewing, repairing things, herbal medicine

Get healthy – exercise, eat healthy, sleep 8 hours

Eat less meat (good for the environment & you)


Avoid “Affluenza”… mindless consumerism and unproductive debt. Sell unnecessary consumer goods & toys (eg. power boats, vacation homes). Practice voluntary simplicity

Assess your investments – consider carefully what shares (if any) and property you want to hold

Increase cash and cash substitutes (gold & silver)

Cultivate emotional resilience - friends, community, spiritualty, exercise, flexible attitude, and a self-identity beyond your full-time job

Store 1- 3 months food at home (grains, beans, pastas, canned foods)


Install solar hot water, PV panels, and insulation while government support for these still exists

Build good relationships with others with useful skills and resources… grow your community

Support community adaptations such as farmer markets... trying to be an isolated individual survivalist is not practical

Consider new transport options – public, bicycle, LPG conversion, or electric conversion

Remember… the better politicians/leaders need all the support they can get.


Get active in your local community... the challenges we face can not be addressed only on an individual level(This will benefit you, both practically and psychologically, as well as your community)

For a positive, action oriented community-based approach to the six global stresses consider joining or starting a Transition Towns initiative in your area. See www.transitiontowns.org for more information.

Paper Wealth May Implode - Consider The Implications:


Career Strategies

Radical Implications for Careers

First Revolution – Agriculture

Second Revolution – Industry

Third Revolution – Sustainable Steady-State

Economy & Society (or devolution - collapse survivalism)

In a Revolution You Are Either a...

Revolutionary – alert, self-aware, informed, networked, opportunity observant, self-directed & action-oriented

Lucky bystander – right skills, place, time, and/or connections

Victim – reliant on the old institutions, ways & belief systems (“Where’s my... Happy meal, remote, job, dole cheque??”)

When Looking for Solutions Remember...

“The most dynamic forces emerge from outside elite circles: geeks, iconoclasts and maligned populations”Joshua Ramo - The Age of the Unthinkable – Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us and What We Can Do About It, 2009

That is to say… look to the fringe more than the traditional centre for new ways to adapt to a changing world

Reversing the “Great Deskilling”? Over the last 100 years we have lost the skills to meet

most of our own needs – growing & producing many things in & around the home

As energy and transport costs rise and complex global production, supply and distribution systems step down or breakdown there will be a return to meeting more needs locally

“Forced entrepreneurship” trend – Laid off workers weary of looking for work, will create their own

Practical short courses and hands-on apprenticeships (whether formal or informal) enabling people to meet local needs will be needed

Career Risk Reduction Tips

Assess your current career… seek “passion” career or “defensive” career

Avoid careers in industries highly dependent on a growing economy and cheap oil (e.g. tourism)

Meet local needs in an economy which can no longer afford to transport food, materials, products, and people as much as in the past.

Practical skills more valuable than non-essential specialized roles requiring an affluent society(Probably less demand for plastic surgeons, fashion consultants, interior designers,

mortgage brokers, financial advisers, sales & marketing etc.)

Plan back-up options such as an auto electrician who develops an interest in electric cars.

Career Risk Reduction Tips

Improve career resilience by developing a diverse range of skills and options

Consider decline-proof careers – debt collectors, pawn shops, recycling & asset stripping, drugs & alcohol, security, military, essential public services, alternative medicine, alternative transport (Google “Dmitry Orlov” for the Russian experience)

Consider the Green energy sector as well as the oil and gas industry (rising prices & skills shortage)

Avoid jobs requiring long car commutes to work

Some Possible Job Growth Areas- from The Clean Tech Revolution, Pernick & Walker, 2008

Harness renewable materials and energy sources plus reduce the use of natural resources by using them more efficiently

Jobs in production, management, deployment and distribution

Job Areas: Solar Energy Wind power Other renewable energies – geothermal, wave, tidal Energy delivery - Smart grid and battery systems Biofuels and biomaterials Green buildings Personal and public transport Water provision (filtration, conservation, etc.) Natural Gas – conventional and unconventional


Career Development Practice Strategies

General Suggestions for Career Advisers

Important for career advisers to question embedded societal beliefs and keep informed on the 6 Global Stresses

Calm, balanced risk management approach recommended

One major element to be incorporated into the career counselling process – not the sole focus

Need to deal wisely with institutional, political and practical realities

New Career Theories Needed

With less stable occupations and work environments the person-environment fit model may be less useful

Approaches such as Jim Bright’s Chaos Theory of Careers more relevant to changing and chaotic systems

In times of rapid change the best we can do may be an open sharing of what works and what doesn’t

Useful Career Guidance Distinctions

Passion career or practical career (defensive)?

Pre- collapse career and post-collapse careers

Primary career and back-up options/skills


Where To From Here?

Chapter 12

Websites for Learning More - Go to TransitionWise.org for these links & more

Peak Oil Sites www.theoildrum.com (world energy & the future issues) www.anz.theoildrum.com (Australian focus on energy & the future) www.aspo-australia.org.au

Climate Change Sites www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au www.bom.gov.au/climate/change

Economic Change Sites www.debtdeflation.com (Prof. Steve Keen’s excellent blog)

www.chrismartenson.com (see the “Crash Course”)

Collapse Commentary (Worst-Case Scenario?) Sites www.carolynbaker.net (compiled by a historian & psychotherapist) www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net (most famous peak oil “doomer” site) www.peakoilblues.com (dealing with the psychological impacts)

http://www.theoildrum.com/

http://www.anz.theoildrum.com/

Do A Course

Sustainable Livelihoods: Now, In Transition and Post Peak

at www.PostPeakLiving.com

Final Thoughts…

Nothing stays the same!

Enjoy life, appreciate what you’ve got, but don’t get too attached to it.

Remember “quality of life” is different from “standard of living.”

Major change can be paralysing or exciting depending on your mindset – those who are mentally prepared will do much better.

To Wrap Things Up...

1. Print clearly your email address on the if you want to receive an email with a link to the download of an updated version of this powerpoint presentation.

2. Place a tick () after your email address if you want to be added to a Google Group I’ll set up for those who want to continue dialogue and information sharing after the workshop

3. If you found today valuable please write your name, position, and a sentence or two feedback that I may use on my TransitionWise.org website

Thank you!

P.S. Brief Action Plan

Don’t waste this learning experience... What are you going to check out or do as a result of what you learnt?

Write it down now!

Questions??

6 Growing Global Stresses and How to Handle Them

Education

Transcript of 6 Growing Global Stresses and How to Handle Them