6-8 September 2004

US Approach for Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Casey DelhotalIssues in the preparation of GHG projections for the energy,

transport, industry and waste management sectors

UNFCCC Workshop on Emissions Projections

Bonn, Germany Sept6-8, 2004

6-8 September 2004

Overview of Projections Methodology

• CO2 emissions from energy, transportation and industry calculated using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) model.

• Non-CO2 emissions calculated separately.

• Policies and measures in place as of July 1, 2001 modeled in baselines; future, potential policies not modeled.

6-8 September 2004 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview/overview.html

National Energy Modeling Systems (NEMS)

6-8 September 2004

Assumptions Used in NEMS2000 2010 2020

1997CAR

2001CAR

1997CAR

2001CAR

1997CAR

2001CAR

Real GDP (billions of 1996dollars)

8,152 9,224 9,925 12,312 11,467 16,525

Population (millions) 276 276 299 300 324 325

Residential Housing Stock(millions)

103.0 105.2 114.7 116.0 125.4 127.1

Commercial Floor Space (billionsq. ft.)

72.3 64.5 78.5 77.5 85.3 89.6

Energy Intensity (Btus per 1996dollar GDP)

11,903 10,770 10,572 9,400 9,631 7,920

Light-Duty Vehicle MilesTraveled (billions)

2,373 2,340 2,885 2,981 3,368 3,631

6-8 September 2004

Assumptions Used in NEMS2000 2010 2020

1997 CAR 2001 CAR 1997 CAR 2001 CAR 1997 CAR 2001 CAR

Energy Commodity Prices (2000 dollars)

World Oil Price($/barrel)

19.86 27.72 22.16 23.36 24.18 24.68

Wellhead NaturalGas ($/1,000 cu. ft.)

2.02 3.60 2.16 2.85 2.61 3.26

Minemouth Coal($/ton)

19.60 16.45 18.00 14.11 16.70 12.79

Average PriceElectricity(cents/kWh)

7.31 6.90 6.98 6.30 6.66 6.50

Average PriceGasoline ($/gallon)

1.49 1.53 1.52 1.40 1.56 1.40

6-8 September 2004

Policy Coverage in NEMS

• Impacts and costs of legislation and regulations adopted as of July 1, 2001, including:

• appliance and lighting efficiencies (Energy Star specifications)

• adoption of electric and alternative-fuel vehicles in accord with federal and state requirements.

• renewable fuel requirements, etc.

• Impact of the President’s climate change initiative and the National Energy Policy NOT included in analysis.

6-8 September 2004

Methane from Coal Mines

• Projected coal production x basin specific emission factor = emissions

• Driver: coal production projections from NEMS/American Energy Outlook (AEO)

• Projected reductions from voluntary program/EPAct Reductions subtracted from projections

6-8 September 2004

Methane from Natural Gas Operations

• Driver: NEMS natural gas projections for production, processing, and transmission & distribution

• ICF Inc.’s Natural Gas model– builds infrastructure to meet projected NG demand

– emissions associated with fugitives and venting related to equipment used in the infrastructure

• Projected reductions from voluntary program subtracted from projections

6-8 September 2004

Methane from Landfills

• Driver: projected population and estimates of recycling and waste diverted

• Landfill model– opening and closing of landfills to meet predicted waste

disposal needs

– emissions calculated using linear decay

• Projected voluntary reductions/reductions due to Landfill Rule (VOC reductions) subtracted from projected baseline

6-8 September 2004

HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 from Industry

• Activity x Emission Factor = Emissions (IPCC Good Practice Guidance)

• Calculated by industrial usage (ex: emissions for the semiconductor industry)

• Drivers or activity = industrial production• Checked Against Chemical Sales Data (e.g., gas

sales from AFEAS, RAND SF6 survey)

6-8 September 2004

ODS Substitutes

• Detailed Yearly Market Data on Over 40 End-Uses– Car ACs, Retail Food, Appliance Foam …

• Track Market as it Transitions from ODSs into HFCs and Other Options

• Emissions from Leaks, Service, Disposal• Incorporate Technology Improvements

6-8 September 2004

Vintaging Model Emission Profiles• Ref&AC: leaks from use, servicing, disposal

– Q is quantity of HFCs added in a given year

• Fire Extinguishing: leaks/releases each year

• Foams: manufacturing, use, disposal

• Aerosols/MDIs: immediate emissions

• Solvents: percentage leaked during first year (rest is recycled or disposed)

E leaks service x Q disposa l Qpast years2 0 1 0

1 9 9 5

2 0 1 0

1 9 9 5 { ( ) } { * }_

6-8 September 2004

Policies and Measures for HFCs, PFCs and SF6

• Significant New Alternatives Program– HFCs and PFCs associated with ODS substitutes

• HFC-23 Partnership• Partnership with Aluminum Producers• Environmental Stewardship Initiative

– HFCs, PFCs and SF6 from semiconductor production, electric power systems, and magnesium production

6-8 September 2004

Nitrous Oxide from Adipic and Nitric Acid Production

• Drivers• adipic = projections of nylon consumption

• nitric = projections of fertilizers, explosives and adipic acid consumption

• Reductions• adipic acid plants reduce emissions by 95 to 98 percent

through installed abatement technologies

• nitric acid plants reduce emissions through Non-Selective Catalytic Reduction NOx control (98%). Only at selected plants.

6-8 September 2004

Uncertainties Affecting Projections

• Technology Development• Regulatory or Statutory Changes• Energy Price Changes• Economic Growth• Weather