5th Annual Appraisal Summit

Fifth Annual Appraisal Summit

Special Presentationbby :

Christine M. ToddChristine M. ToddChief Executive Officer

NVARNVAR

June 16,2010

Have We Hit Bottom?Have We Hit Bottom?

All indicators say" yes”

Recovery slow and painful

Not all sectors recovering at the same time

First-time buyers and cash investors still driving h the recovery

2010: Year of the Comeback!

Signs of Improving Local Marketg p gHome prices stabilizing with small increasesInterest rates on commercial mortgages and Interest rates on commercial mortgages and construction loans still affordableI h i i i h hInvestors purchasing inventory with cashJob losses and unemployment show improvement in our regionEconomy will continue to expand in 2010y p

Source: Gerald L. Gordon ,PH.DPresident and CEO, Fairfax County Economic Development Authority

Housing Outlook

20102008 2009

2010forecast

Existing Home Sales 4 9 m 5 2 m 5 4 mExisting Home Sales 4.9 m 5.2 m 5.4 m

New Home Sales 485 k 375 k 400 k

Home Price Growth -10% -13% 2% to 3%

M t R t 6 1% 5 1% 5 3%Mortgage Rate 6.1% 5.1% 5.3%Consumer confidence about home buying Down Down Upabout home buying

Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR

2 1 illi500 000500 000 2.1 millionIn 2006

500,000500,000new starts innew starts in VSVS

In 20062010 2010

Future Housing Shortage?Y H i St t Hi t i l N l C l tiYear Housing Starts Historical Normal Cumulative

Surplus/Deficit

2003 1.85 million 1.6 million + 0.25 million




2007 1.34 million 1.6 million +1.02 million


2009 0.55 million 1.6 million ‐ 0.73 million

2010 forecast 0.68 million 1.6 million ‐1.65 million

2011 forecast 0.95 million 1.6 million ‐ 2.30 million


3 Factors Sustaining Foreclosures3 Factors Sustaining Foreclosures

Ongoing Resets of Payment Terms

L f B ILoss of Borrower Income

Depressed Home Values

Sample Markets with Price Increases

% change from one year ago

12

14

16

8

10

12

2

4

6

0

2

San Diego Orange Cty Boston Houston Buffalo Washington Columbia


Recent National Pending Home Sales(year-over-year % change)

Tax Credit Help to SalesDespite 3 7 million job losses

30

40Despite 3.7 million job losses

10

20

-10

0

2007

- Jan

2007

- Apr

2007

- Jul

2007

- Oct

2008

- Jan

2008

- Apr

2008

- Jul

2008

- Oct

2009

- Jan

2009

- Apr

2009

- Jul

2009

- Oct

2010

- Jan

-30

-2020 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20


Road to Stabilization…

Existing sales rose to 5 8 million annualized paceExisting sales rose to 5.8 million annualized pace

PENDING SALES for April very strong (tax credit)

New Home sales are up double-digit % last year

PROCEED WITH CAUTION

Temporary slump for May and June (no tax credit)Temporary slump for May and June (no tax credit)

Annualized sales pace may fall to 4.5 million

5 5 million unit sales needed for full recovery5.5 million unit sales needed for full recovery

7 million units were sold in 2005, record high

5 5 illi it l 20015.5 million unit sales same as 2001

4.9 in 2008

5.2 in 2009

Remember we are at 5.8 today

PRICES starting to stabilize

NVAR statistics on pricesNVAR statistics on pricesRecord high $569,826 JUNE, 2007Record low $376,669 JAN, 2009

2010 average sales price ¼ $429,605$May average sales price $460,828

PENDING SALES

APRIL 2010 3 011APRIL 2010 3,011MAY 2010 1 901MAY 2010 1,901

June and July contracts, critical data needed to project if recovery i l!is real!

FUTURE HOME PRICES

Dr Yun NAR Chief EconomistDr. Yun, NAR Chief EconomistOver next 5 years sales to rise 2% annually

F l d b d h k tFueled by second-home market

PRICES “at best price appreciation will be beat CPI inflation by 1% point”

Distressed Home Sales

Foreclosed

20253035

5101520

Short-Sale

05


April Metro Area Single Family Home Sales and Prices

All data reported here is unadjusted for seasonality

Median Price% Change from 1

Year Ago# MSA Apr‐09 Apr‐10 Price Sales1 Atlanta 112,500 120,800 7.4% 6.0%2 Baltimore 242,200 245,900 1.5% 33.9%3 Boston 319,000 340,600 6.8% 41.8%4 Cincinnati 120,000 129,400 7.8% 33.7%5 Dallas 139,400 150,300 7.8% 29.1%6 Houston 149,400 153,800 2.9% 26.6%7 Indianapolis 106,400 124,600 17.1% 22.2%8 Kansas City 133,600 143,300 7.3% 32.8%9 Miami/Ft. Lauderdale 196,000 225,000 14.8% 16.2%/ , ,10 Minneapolis 153,000 169,800 11.0% 17.1%11 New Orleans 152,900 156,900 2.6% 16.4%12 New York 370,800 381,200 2.8% 39.6%13 Philadelphia 210,700 215,200 2.1% 34.1%p , ,14 Phoenix 124,500 144,700 16.2% ‐0.7%15 Pittsburgh 119,500 122,500 2.5% 42.2%16 Portland 245,500 245,300 ‐0.1% 49.2%17 San Antonio 149,200 143,300 ‐4.0% 17.2%17 San Antonio 149,200 143,300 4.0% 17.2%18 San Diego 336,700 388,400 15.4% ‐6.9%19 St. Louis 121,100 134,300 10.9% 7.8%20 Washington DC 296,100 318,300 7.5% 18.2%*

Dr. Yun’s predictions

O th t 12 th I ill “Over the next 12 months, I will be watching Lexington KY and be watching Lexington, KY and Washington, DC to outperform Washington, DC to outperform the rest of the country”!

Commercial Real Estate…Lagging

Lagging behind economic recoveryLagging behind economic recoveryInvestment activity still down (where did it go?)C di i ill i hCredit is still tightHigh vacancy rates keep rents competitive

NOTE: lowest multi-family vacancy rates will be inNOTE: lowest multi family vacancy rates will be inSan Jose, Pittsburg and Washington, DC.

MRIS Introduces Market Watch Videos

Visit the statistic page on MRIS com and look at the map of the MRIS Visit the statistic page on MRIS.com and look at the map of the MRIS service region. Simply click on the area of the map for which you

want to see the video, and a viewer will appear.

Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria & Falls ChurchStatistics as of May, 2010

2010 2009 % ChangeSold Volume: $901,840,808 $781,162,490 15.45%

Avg. Sold Price: $460,828 $433,257 6.36%

Median Sold Price: $404,000 $375,000 7.73%

Total Units Sold: 1,957 1,803 8.54%

Avg. Days on Market: 40 76 -47.37%g y

Avg.List Price Solds: $479,219 $467,995 2.40%

Avg. Sale Price/List: 96.16% 92.58%Avg. Sale Price/List: 96.16% 92.58%

Total Month Contract 1901 2637

Total NEW listings 2482 2857Total NEW listings 2482 2857

Active Listings 7710 8050

NVAR COMNVAR.COM

Market Statistics Monthly ReportsQ l R l S i iQuarterly Rental StatisticsAnnual Sales SummaryyYear-End ReportQ t l T d i H i P bli tiQuarterly Trends in Housing Publication

Monthly Average Sold Price (Northern Virginia)

$550,000

$600,000

Avg. Sold Price 2000

$450,000

$500,000 Avg. Sold Price 2001



$350,000

$400,000

g




$250,000

$300,000

g




$200,000



Prince William County, Manassas City &Manassas Park CityStatistics as of May, 2010

%2010 2009 % changeSold Dollar Volume: $191,632,409 $198,361,135 ‐3.39%

Average Sold Price: $268,393 $226,698 18.39%


Total Units Sold: 714 875 ‐18.40%

Avg. Days on Market: 32 78 ‐58.97%

Avg. List Price Solds: $276,768 $242,551 14.11%

Avg Sale Price/List: 96.97% 93.46%g /

Total Month Contract 726 1290


Active listings 2947 3128

Loudoun CountyStatistics as of May 10,2010

%2010 2009 % ChangeSold Volume: $194,055,307 $160,436,664 20.95%

A S ld P i $416 428 $366 294 13 69%Average Sold Price: $416,428 $366,294 13.69%


Total Units Sold: 466 438 6.39%

Avg.Days on Market: 44 86 -48.84%

Avg. List Price Solds: $438,245 $394,569 11.07%

Avg Sale Price/List 95.02% 92.83%g /

Total Month Contract: 455 663



Springfield Zip Code 22150Statistics as of May ,2010

%2010 2009 % ChangeSold Volume: $8,629,703 $11,829,501 -27.05%

A S ld P i $308 204 $303 321 1 61%Average Sold Price: $308,204 $303,321 1.61%


Total Units Sold: 28 39 -28.21%


Avg. List Price Solds: $313,330 $326,982 -4.18%

Avg Sale Price/List 98.36% 92.76%g /


T l NEW li i 24 38Total NEW listings 24 38


2010 2009 % ChangeSold Volume: $12,752,500 $18,700,720 -31.81%

Avg.Sold Price: $289,830 $316,961 -8.56%

Median Sold Price: $265,000 $282,000 -6.03%

Total Units Sold: 44 59 -25.42%


Avg.List Price for Solds: $301,952 $333,897 -9.57%

Avg Sale Price/List 95.99% 94.93%


Total NEW listings: 52 85

Active Listing 172 242

7,2058,733 7,688

8 000

10,000

5,659,

5,4216,000

8,000

4,000

0

2,000

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 20092005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2010 Active Listings May14 000

11,55410,240 10,75712,000

14,000

8,050 7,7108,000

10,000

3,3956,000

8,000

3,395

2,000

4,000

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

SUPPLY and DEMAND

ACTIVE LISTINGS for MAYACTIVE LISTINGS for MAY2010 7,7102009 8,0502006 11 554 ( d hi h) 2006 11,554 (record high) 2004 2,877 (record low), ( )

2010 Sold Listings May

3,0452,8943 000

3,500

2,0691 816 1 803 1,957

2,500

3,000

1,816 1,724 1,803 ,

1,500

2,000

500

1,000

0

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2010: Under Contracts (May)

2,6373,000

2,043 2,1661,901

2,1492,000

2,500

1,500

2,000

500

1,000

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2010 Average Sales Price (NVAR) MayRecord High- $578,689 (June 2006)eco d g $5 8,689 (Ju e 006)

Record Low- $376,669 (January 2009)

$549,197

$478,672$433,257

$553,618

$460,828500,000

600,000

300,000

400,000

100,000

200,000

0

100,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 20102006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Tax Credit was Huge Success

1 million additional buyersy1 million fewer inventoryReduced months supply by 2 to 2 5 monthsReduced months supply by 2 to 2.5 monthsCorrespond to price impact of 5% to 8% pointsP d H i W lth ( tl iddl l ) Preserved Housing Wealth (mostly middle-class) by nearly $1 trillionLimit future foreclosuresLimit future foreclosures


Total Sold Volume(in billions)

18

$11 0

15.7

141618

$11.0$9.7

$8.0 $8.28

1012

246

02

2005 2006 2007 2008 20092005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Benefits of Living in Fairfax CountyBenefits of Living in Fairfax County

U l t t i l 4 5%Unemployment rate is only 4.5%

O h l id lit kfOur schools provide a quality workforce

Our area has the highest median family income in g ythe U.S.

Major companies relocated here, VW, Hilton, CSC, j pSAIC………

Listed as one of the safest communities in AmericaListed as one of the safest communities in America

Source: Jerry Gordon, President and CEO of the Fairfax EDA

Job Change by Sector (Jan 2009 – Jan 2010)Washington MSA (000s) Total - 29,200

-5Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) ota 9, 00

Govt. sector grew more than expected

-7

3

17

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

-13

1

-2

7

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

-6

-6

-2

13

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

-3

-3

-4

6

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

-3

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Transp. & Util.

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

50%

40%

45%Northern Virginia

30%

35%

DistrictSub. MD.

Suburban MD

20%

25%Sub. MD.N. Virginia

D C

10%

15%D.C.

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Well –Intended Policy Gone Bad

Appraiser getting paid lessAppraiser not familiar with propertiesConsumers paying higher feeH b ti t b b t tHome buyers wanting to buy but cannotNAR working with GSEs on appraisal policies

NAR Influence

A new consumer-protection agency-armed A new consumer-protection agency-armed with broad powers to rein in bad mortgage

d t d d t l di ti products and predatory lending practice anywhere in the country is now a certainty

Uniform minimum standards for mortgages Uniform minimum standards for mortgages and underwriting practices.

NAR Influence

Real estate appraisal Real estate appraisal improvements, Terminate HVCC

Increase “Call To Action” participationp p

“Preserve the wealth of the Middle Class”

Team up with NAHBea up

Verify money spent on each new home purchase helping the economyy

Target legislatures in states hardest hit by housing recession

NAR Urges Senate to PassNAR Urges Senate to Pass

present home-buyer tax credit

extension closing deadline extension closing deadline

to Sept. 30.

NAR Praises House Passage of

FHA R f Bill th t ld llFHA Reform Bill that would allow

the Federal Housing Administration

dj hl i ito adjust monthly premiums on mortgage insurance.

Did you pay your fair share?Did you pay your fair share?y p y yy p y y

Agent- $40 Broker- $99

Realtors® Federal Credit Union

www.realtorsfcu.org

Health Insurance

RealtorsRealtors®® Core Health Insurance PlanCore Health Insurance Plan

Guaranteed acceptanceGua a eed accep a ce

Low cost starting at $70.69 per month

Choose any providerChoose any provider

www RealtorsCoreHealthInsurance com/AEwww RealtorsCoreHealthInsurance com/AEwww.RealtorsCoreHealthInsurance.com/AEwww.RealtorsCoreHealthInsurance.com/AE

HouseLogic.comHouseLogic.comHouseLogic.comHouseLogic.com

Save Money Go Green

Maintain your home

EngageMortgage Interest

D d tiDeduction

Taxes & Incentives InsuranceTaxes & Incentives Insurance

Blog /Articles

NAR Realtor Appraisal

NAR website offers information and resources to Appraisers such as

Appraisal FoundationAppraisal EssentialsAppraisal EssentialsAppraisal DashboardHow to find an AppraiserFAQ for appraisers about the REALTORS®Guidelines for hiring AppraisersNAR Member Benefits for Appraisers

To access more information please visitTo access more information, please visitthe Realtor Appraisal Site at

Realtor org/Appraisal/Realtor.org/Appraisal/

Center for Realtor Technology ReleasesAppraisal Dashboard

NAR’s Center for Realtor Technology (CRT) recently released an Appraisal Dashboard. CRT takes ideas that come from the field and tries to makeDashboard. CRT takes ideas that come from the field and tries to make useful technology applications from those ideas. The CRT blog indicates that this tool came from an idea that an appraiser had and took to the Minneapolis MLS; their main tech person then took this idea to CRT who h l d t th li tihelped create the application.The Appraisal Dashboard is a PHP based web application that connects to live MLS data that provides a graphical search and display interface. You can then export the data into the Uniform Residential Appraisal Report or p pp pMISMO format.

It is a free NAR member benefit and the software can be downloaded at

http://www.crt.realtors.org/cms/project/appraisal-dash

Get Insights Without LookingGet Insights Without LookingHave Real Estate INSIGHTS delivered to your e-mail box as soon as new content is posted each month. It's free to members as well as non-members! Subscribe in the "My Account" section of Realtor.org.y g

There’s always more “INSIGHT-”full info. We will continueThere s always more INSIGHT full info. We will continue over the next several months to upgrade and update Real Estate INSIGHTS. In the meantime, remember to click on the special “For more info” arrow icons throughout this p gissue. By clicking on this icon when reading INSIGHTS, you can automatically link to another web site for more detailed information.

http://www.realtor.org/research/reinsights

The median age of The median age of Realtors® is 54.

The majority of members are women with college are women with college education.

The typical member has been in the business for been in the business for 10 years.

Where do our members work?

F hi d b idi Non-franchised subsidiary of a Franchised subsidiary

of a national or regional corporation

9%

subsidiary of a national or regional

corporation4%

Other1%

Independent, non-franchised company

54%Independent, franchised company

32%

Where to Find Your Copy?

Who are REALTORS®? Economic, demographic, education, tenure, agency relationship and compensation of REALTORS® are p

broken down. In addition, this report takes an in-depth look at

office affiliation, type of firm, as ll h f h dwell as the use of the Internet and

technology.

Please visit Realtor.org/store

for more informationfor more information

NVAR’s New GREEN BuildingNVAR’s New GREEN Building

Thank You! Please attend:Thank You! Please attend:

Annual Economic Summit• Annual Economic Summit• September 16 (8:30 am to 12:30PM)• Northern Virginia Community College1

• Annual Convention & Trade Show

2 • October 12 (7:30 am to 5:00 PM)• Northern Virginia Community College2

5th Annual Appraisal Summit

Real Estate

Transcript of 5th Annual Appraisal Summit