5G worldwide outlook: standardisation … worldwide outlook: standardisation programmes and...

© Analysys Mason Limited 2014

5G worldwide outlook: standardisation programmes and technology developments

Research Report

5G worldwide outlook: standardisation programmes

and technology developments

October 2014

Chris Nicoll and Nipun Jaiswal



About this report

This report analyses the implications of forthcoming 5G

standards for regulators, mobile network operators (MNOs)

and technology companies, such as network and device

manufacturers.

It is based on several sources:

Analysys Mason’s internal research, including forecasts

of fixed and wireless traffic and consumer surveys

interviews with operators, equipment vendors and

stakeholders in governmental policy areas

governmental and standards bodies’ publications on 5G.

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Figure 1: Summary of network equipment vendors, mobile operators and

industry bodies mentioned in this report. [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]

Who needs to read this report

Mobile operators’ network, spectrum and technology

strategy teams.

Network vendors’ R&D and strategy teams, and operator

account teams supporting marketing and strategy.

Regulator work groups and policy teams responsible for

licensed, lightly licensed and unlicensed spectrum policy.

Industry bodies associated with assigning and managing

spectrum used in fixed and mobile wireless networking.

Key questions answered in this report

What will be the impact of 5G on the telecoms industry?

Is this just a new mobile technology or will it have an

impact on fixed and cable operators?

Will 5G extend beyond the radio access network into the

core and if so, how far will it go?

Will 5G be a ‘next generation’ of 4G and what will it mean

for the building and operation of networks?

Which of the many participating organisations are driving

the technology development and standards work for 5G?

Vendors and operators Industry bodies

Alcatel-Lucent

China Mobile

Ericsson

Etisalat

Huawei

KT (Korea)

Nokia

Networks

NTT Docomo

Qualcomm

Samsung

SK Telecom

Sprint

Telefónica

ZTE

5G Forum

5G PPP

ARIB 2020 and Beyond AdHoc

IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group

NGMN

The Ministry of Science and

Technology of the People’s

Republic of China’s 863 Program



Contents

3

Slide no. Slide no.

6. Executive summary and key implications

7. Executive summary

8. Key implications for mobile network operators (MNOs)

9. Key implications for regulators

10. Key implications for technology companies

11. The impact of 5G on the telecoms industry

12. 5G could be the most complex standardisation exercise that the

telecoms industry has experienced

13. Some 5G spectrum options could enable hyper-dense networks and

deliver gigabit-speed wireless data services

14. 5G spectrum access is likely to become more diverse and more

dynamic, which could lead to security and performance challenges

15. The development of new 5G radio access technologies would hinder

backward compatibility

16. 5G could bridge the divide between fixed and mobile network services

17. 5G R&D is underway – established players are forming partnerships

that may signal a new value chain

18. The vision for 5G and the status of standardisation programmes

19. Key to the 5G vision is that networks must be higher performing, and

more virtualised and service-driven than today’s networks

20. The top-four drivers for 5G are the same as those for 4G: growth in

mobile and fixed data traffic, M2M device connections and smartphone

take-up

21. The use cases for 5G are becoming increasingly understood, but basic

questions are still being asked about what should be in the standard

22. Standardisation bodies and industry alliance associations have begun

their 5G initiatives

23. ITU’s Working Party 5 is co-ordinating the 5G standards effort, but major

deliverables will not appear until mid-2015

24. Early 5G specifications are expected to be introduced in 2015 in 3GPP

Release 14, followed by further releases

25. 5G development efforts worldwide

26. Multiple stakeholders are influencing 5G development, including MNOs,

governments, equipment vendors and research institutions

27. Asia–Pacific and the European Union are leading efforts to define and

develop 5G, but input from the Americas and Australia is missing

28. The IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group and MOST’s 863 Program are

working together to propel China’s leadership in 5G development

29. South Korea’s 5G Forum aims to commercialise 5G by 2020 and offer

1Gbps per user anytime anywhere

30. Japan organises its 5G development activities through ARIB 2020 and

Beyond AdHoc



Contents

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Slide no. Slide no.

31. METIS 2020 intends to ensure that the EU leads the development of 5G

as it works to build worldwide consensus

32. 5G PPP in Horizon 2020 is a 50:50 public–private partnership project

that aims to position the EU at the forefront of 5G development

33. UK-based 5GIC is the world’s first dedicated 5G centre, and aims to

research and develop efficient 5G solutions

34. Proposed key technologies

35. The 5G vision will drive the need for a new radio access technology and

possibly non-backward-compatible changes

36. Massive MIMO systems could help operators achieve the capacity,

throughput and efficiency targets required for 5G networks

37. Information-centric networking can change how we think about mobile

networking and vastly simplify the next-generation core

38. Macro-assisted small cells could help networks address density

challenges without increasing signalling loads

39. Mesh 5G access networks could change how local data is handled by

the wireless network and increase network scalability

40. SCMA is a new waveform and signalling technology to increase

throughput and number of simultaneous users supported in the RAN

41. Dynamic TDD framing could achieve the 1ms latency goal while

boosting throughput and network efficiency

42. 5G radio development may create connections to deeper core network

and cloud functions, driving high data rates and improved performance

43. UF-OFDM improves spectrum utilisation and efficiency for short-burst

communications

44. About the authors and Analysys Mason

45. About the authors

46. About Analysys Mason

47. Research from Analysys Mason

48. Consulting from Analysys Mason



List of figures

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Figure 1: Summary of network equipment vendors, mobile operators and

industry bodies mentioned in this report

Figure 2: 5G spectrum band options

Figure 3: Three regulatory methods of managing spectrum

Figure 4: The potential evolution of the mobile value chain following the

launch of 5G

Figure 5: Key drivers and requirements for 5G

Figure 6: Major market trends driving the need for 5G networks

Figure 7: 5G use case scenarios and potential services

Figure 8: Selected 5G standards bodies and industry associations

Figure 9: Timeline for the development of mobile technology standards,

including tentative dates for 5G

Figure 10: 5G development stakeholders

Figure 11: 5G development initiatives by country and region

Figure 12: 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by the IMT-2020

(5G) Promotion Group

Figure 13: 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by the 5G Forum

Figure 14: 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by ARIB 2020 and

Beyond AdHoc

Figure 15: 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by METIS 2020

Figure 16: 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by 5G PPP

Figure 17: 5GIC’s management structure

Figure 18: Proposed solutions to 5G radio access technology challenges

Figure 19: Potential signal waveforms for a new radio access technology

Figure 20: Potential features and benefits of massive MIMO technology, and

how they relate to 5G requirements

Figure 21: Cisco’s information-centric networking model

Figure 22: Potential features and benefits of the macro-assisted small cell

concept

Figure 23: Mesh RAN architecture proposal for 5G

Figure 24: Sparse code multiple access (SCMA)

Figure 25: Dynamic TDD framing proposed for sub-1ms interface

Figure 26: Ericsson’s 5G architecture vision

Figure 27: A comparison of out-of-band power levels of OFDM and filtered

waveforms



Some 5G spectrum options could enable hyper-dense networks and

deliver gigabit-speed wireless data services

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Figure 2: 5G spectrum band options [Source: Analysys Mason 2014]

Spectrum for 5G will probably consist of a combination of established and new bands, spanning a wide section of radio spectrum.

Different bands will serve different purposes and a key challenge for mobile operators will be to integrate the various bands.

It is expected that MNOs will share 5G spectrum to a greater extent than currently, which may signal an end to further spectrum

being reserved for ‘exclusive’ mobile broadband use in future.

A key difference between 5G and earlier generations of mobile technology is that 5G radio research is focused on improving

spectrum utilisation, rather than just spectrum efficiency.

Band Bandwidth available Merits Band assignments Spectrum potential

700MHz Varies widely by country, but

generally 2×30MHz to 2×45MHz

Ideal for wide area coverage as well as in-

building penetration

Typically in lots of

2×5MHz or 2×10MHz

Expand wide area coverage,

improve indoor coverage

3.4–3.8GHz Up to 400MHz, paired or unpaired Larger channels could be used (for

example, 100MHz)

Multiples of 20MHz Support for multiple operators with

100MHz channels

5GHz Up to 300MHz will be considered at

the ITU’s World Radiocommunication

Conference 2015 (WRC-15)

Likely to be licence-exempt Multiples of 20MHz Almost 800MHz available using

established and new allocations

15GHz Up to 500MHz Supports high speeds (Ericsson has

demonstrated 5Gbps). The limited signal

range is ideal for dense access networks.

Multiples of 100MHz Support for dense, very high-speed

data services and multiple operators

with 100MHz channels

28GHz Up to 500MHz Performance similar to 15GHz Multiples of 100MHz Similar to 15GHz

70/80GHz Up to 5GHz Performance similar to 15GHz Multiples of 100MHz Similar to 15GHz



5G R&D is underway – established players are forming partnerships that

may signal a new value chain

Vendors and operators are already engaged in R&D for 5G

technology.

Etisalat and Huawei have announced that they are joining

forces to conduct 5G trials in the Middle East – Huawei is

starting to demonstrate its early ‘5G’ advances in antenna

arrays and spectrum support.

Samsung has announced 1Gbps wireless connectivity

and has conducted trials using 28GHz spectrum and 64-

antenna arrays.

NTT Docomo has said it plans to roll out 5G from 2020,

and will use higher frequencies, smaller cells and more

HetNet solutions.

The European Commission has launched the 5G Public–

Private Partnership (5G PPP) that aims to develop

technology research and prepare for standardisation.

It views 5G as an engine for growth and a means of

regaining technological leadership within the EU.

The 5G vision suggests that further sharing and virtualisation

will be key. This could result in a change in control of the

mobile value chain.

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Figure 4: The potential evolution of the mobile value chain following the

launch of 5G [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]

Traditional MNO core elements

Vertical MNO networks and exclusive spectrum

Core

network

Radio

access

network

Licensed

spectrum Backhaul

Potential new 5G value chain

Virtualised or shared infrastructure, and pooled or shared spectrum

Service

domain

Service

provider

Service

provider

Service

provider

Virtualised network

Spectrum

Radio network

Core network

Cloud services

Quality of service


5G worldwide outlook: standardisation programmes and technology developments 44

Executive summary and key implications

The impact of 5G on the telecoms industry

The vision for 5G and the status of standardisation programmes

5G development efforts worldwide

Proposed key technologies

About the authors and Analysys Mason



About the authors

Chris Nicoll (Practice Head) is the head of Analysys Mason’s Network Technologies and Enterprise and M2M

research practices. His primary areas of specialisation include wireless access technologies, wireless traffic

forecasting, mobile infrastructure and operator strategy.

Chris has more than 20 years of expertise as a leader in defining telecoms strategy. Prior to joining Analysys

Mason, Chris held Principal Analyst positions at ACG Research and Nicoll Consulting, where he developed

marketing strategy and positioning for leading telecoms operators. At Yankee Group, Chris was a member of the

Yankee Group Research Council and provided thought leadership to the research organisation. At Lucent and

Alcatel-Lucent, Chris was director of strategic marketing, overseeing the company's corporate positioning and

messaging, including public affairs and analyst relations. Chris also led the Telecom Infrastructure team at Current

Analysis, where he developed a global analyst team, as well as oversaw consulting engagements and managed

client relationships. Chris has also held marketing and network engineering positions at Netrix, Tymnet and Visual

Networks.

Chris holds a BS in Communications with minors in Computer Science, Psychology and Marketing from Florida

State University.

Nipun Jaiswal (Analyst) is based in Analysys Mason’s Singapore office. He specialises in the Asia–Pacific

telecoms, media and related technologies markets. He is an expert in tracking, analysing and forecasting telecoms

market data, and in providing corporate strategy, competitive analysis, market insights and market intelligence. Prior

to joining Analysys Mason, Nipun was an industry analyst in Frost & Sullivan's ICT research and growth consulting

team for Asia–Pacific, based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Nipun has a strong technical background, having worked

extensively on mobile network management solutions in the OSS domain for a Tier 1 telecoms equipment vendor

based in Europe and India. Nipun holds an MBA in global business from the S P Jain School of Global Management

(Singapore and Dubai) and a degree in Computer Engineering from Bharati Vidyapeeth University (India).

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About Analysys Mason

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knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research.

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Research from Analysys Mason

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through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world.

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Consulting from Analysys Mason

For more than 25 years, our consultants have

been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence

to enable clients around the world to make

the most of their opportunities.

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Our clients in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT)

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