5G mobile wireless (R)evolu2on - vau.net · 7 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 C-Netz – 1G GSM –...

5Gmobilewireless(R)evolu2on

RobertKnechtel,BearingPoint/TIFSitzung20July2016

Whatchangeswillweseewiththenewmobilestandard5G?

2

Agenda

ClosingRemarks–WhatwillbetheimpactforTelcosandwhatdoesitmeanforMedia?3)

5Gthewireless(R)evolu:on–How5Gdifferen2ates&whatisitsexpectedcommercial&technicalimpact?2)

Historyofmobilecommunica:on–Howwirelesscommunica2onevolvedover2me?1)

3

Theelectromagne:cspectrum

Allwirelesscommunica2onisbasedonelectromagne2cwaveswhichhaveadifferentappearancedependingontheirfrequency

CyclesperSec

Wavelength

UseCasesAlterna2ng

electriccurrent

AC

Gamma-Rays

X-Rays

FrequencyKilo-hertz

Mega-hertz

Giga-hertz

Tera-hertz

Peta-hertz

Exa-hertz

ZeRa-hertz

103/sek(thousand)

106/sek(million)

109/sek(billion)

1012/sek(billionen)

1015/sek(billiarden)

1018/sek(trillion)

1021/sek(trilliarde)

km m cm mm μm nm pm

Microwaveovens

Visible&invisibleLight

WirelessCommunica:on

Illustra2ve

4

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

C-Netz–1G

Mob

ile

Go-Live *Es2matedTermina2on

Bundesnetzagentur,2016

Keydevelopmentsofwirelesscommunica2oninGermany1980-2030Time

FactCheck

Primaryservice

Keyweakness

Keydifferen:ator

CellCapacity(Devices)

Latency

Max.Bandwidth(downlink)

•  <2kbps

Today

•  n/a

•  <70

•  Analoguevoice

•  Mobile

•  Strikingsecurityissues&poorspectralefficiency

5

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

C-Netz–1G

GSM–2G

Mob

ile




FactCheck

Primaryservice

Keyweakness

Keydifferen:ator


Latency


Today

•  <14,4kbps

•  >900ms

•  <200

•  DigitalVoice&SMS

•  Massadap2on&security

•  Limiteddataratestosupportbroadbandapplica2ons

6

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

C-Netz–1G

GSM–2G

Mob

ile




FactCheck

Primaryservice

Keyweakness

Keydifferen:ator


Latency


Today

EDGEGo-Live

2.Frequencyauc:on

•  <473kbps

•  >300ms

•  <200

•  DigitalVoice&SMS

•  Massadap2on&security

•  Limiteddataratestosupportbroadbandapplica2ons

7

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

C-Netz–1G

GSM–2G

UMTS–3GM

obile




FactCheck

Primaryservice

Keyweakness

Keydifferen:ator


Latency


Today

EDGEGo-Live

2.Frequencyauc:on

•  <2048kbps

•  >200ms

•  <500

•  Voice,SMS&Data

•  Firstbroadbandapplica2ons

•  Unabletomatchhype&FailureofWAP

8

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

C-Netz–1G

GSM–2G

UMTS–3GM

obile




FactCheck

Primaryservice

Keyweakness

Keydifferen:ator


Latency


Today

EDGEGo-Live

2.Frequencyauc:on

Go-LiveHSPA

•  <14,4mbps

•  >100ms

•  <750

•  Voice,SMS&BroadbandData

•  Broadbandapplica2ons

•  Tiedtolegacymobilespecificarchitectureandprotocols

9

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

C-Netz–1G

GSM–2G

UMTS–3G

LTE–4G

Mob

ile




FactCheck

Primaryservice

Keyweakness

Keydifferen:ator


Latency


Today

EDGEGo-Live

2.Frequencyauc:on

Go-LiveHSPA

•  <160mbps

•  >20ms

•  Ca.10k

•  All-IPServices

•  Fastbroadbandinternet&lowerlatency

•  Bandwidthsharingduetothelimitedbandwidthpercell

10

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

C-Netz–1G

GSM–2G

UMTS–3G

LTE–4G

Mob

ile




FactCheck

Primaryservice

Keyweakness

Keydifferen:ator


Latency


Today

EDGEGo-Live

2.Frequencyauc:on

Go-LiveHSPA

Go-LiveLTE-A(dvanced)

•  1gbps

•  >10ms

•  Ca.30k


•  Fasterbroadbandinternet&lowerlatency

•  Bandwidthsharingduetothelimitedbandwidthpercell

11

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

C-Netz–1G

GSM–2G

UMTS–3G

LTE–4G

802.11x–WLAN

Mob

ile

Nom

adic




FactCheck

Primaryservice

Keyweakness

Keydifferen:ator


Latency

Max.Bandwidth(downlink)QualityofService802.11e

Mediaindependenthandover802.21

Today

EDGEGo-Live

2.Frequencyauc:on

Go-LiveHSPA


Bandwidth-&signalupgrade802.11ac

•  Ca.1,3gbps

•  ≥10ms

•  n/a


•  Independentwirelesslocalaccessnetwork

•  Spa2allimitedconnec2vity

12

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

C-Netz–1G

GSM–2G

UMTS–3G

LTE–4G

802.16x–WiMax

802.11x–WLAN

Mob

ile

Nom

adic




FactCheck

Primaryservice

Keyweakness

Keydifferen:ator


Latency



Today

EDGEGo-Live

2.Frequencyauc:on

Go-LiveHSPA



•  <1gbps

•  ≥10ms

•  n/a


•  Fasterdatarates&lowerlatencythanLTE

•  Badcost-benefitra2o&spa2allimitedconnec2vity

13

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

C-Netz–1G

GSM–2G

UMTS–3G

LTE–4G

???–5G

802.16x–WiMax

802.11x–WLAN

Mob

ile

Nom

adic




FactCheck

Primaryservice

Keyweakness

Keydifferen:ator


Latency



Today

EDGEGo-Live

2.Frequencyauc:on

Go-LiveHSPA



•  >1gbps

•  ≥1ms

•  <1m

•  All-IPServices&Networkintelligence

•  IoTenabler

•  ???

14

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

C-Netz–1G

GSM–2G

UMTS–3G

LTE–4G

802.16x–WiMax

802.11x–WLAN

Mob

ile

Nom

adic




QualityofService802.11e


Today

EDGEGo-Live

2.Frequencyauc:on

Go-LiveHSPA



5GHyperconnectedwirelessnetwork

Privateareanetworks

Sowhatis5Gandwhatisitfor?

16

5GRequirements

Requirementsimposedon5Garemanifoldandcanbecategorizedin4areas

Source:Informa2onWeek(2015);You(2015);Nokia(2014).

Asetof8requirements

emergedfromtheindustryini:a:ves

Asetof11requirementsemergedfromtheindustryini:a:ves

Speedandlatency

Energysavings

End-userpercep:on

Frequencyspectrum

10-100Gbpspeakdatarate(theore2calmaximum)

1millisecondend-to-endroundtripdelay(latency)

Uptotenyearsbaperylifeforlowpower,machine-typedevices

90%reduc2oninnetworkenergyusage

(Percep2onof)99.998%availability/reliability

(Percep2onof)100%coverage

0,1–1Gbpsenduserexperienceddatarate

1milliondevices/km2

10-100Mbps/m2areatrafficcapacity

500km/hmobility

90minutesservicedeployment2me

17

5GEnablers

Thekeyenablingtechnologiesfor5Gcanbedividedinnetworkequipmentandspectrum,networkdesignandnetworkmanagement

NetworkDensity

NewAntennaConcepts

NetworkDesign

LoadRelief&DevicetoDevice

FailureManagement

NetworkManagement

1GHz 3GHz 10GHz

30GHz

100GHz

millimeter-waves5GSpectrumRange

20201980

Bits/sec/Hz

SpectralEfficiency

Alloca:onofFrequencyRange

Equipment&Spectrum

18

Telcosworldwide

Alliancesand5GStandardisa:on1)Thereisnoofficialins2tuteleadingtheglobalstandardiza2onprocess

1)AnalysysMason(2015):5GoutlookforAsiaPacificmarketimpactandstandardisa2onprogrammes

Standardbodies3GPP ITU NGMN

Alliance WWRF

Equipmentvendors

HuaweiNokia

Networks

ZTE Ericsson

Alcatel-Lucent Qualcom Samsung …

Governmentini2a2ves

5GForum(SK)

IMT2020(China)

ARIB(Japan)

5GPPP&METISII(EU)

Academicandresearchins2tu2ons

TokyoIns.ofTechn.

TUDresden ETRI(SK) 5GIC

5GStandardi-sa2on

19

2012 2013-2014 2015-2016 2017-2019 2018

Lighthouseprojects

•  SouthKoreanSKTelecomplanstodemo5Gin2018atthePyeongchangwinterOlympics

•  EricssonandRussianMNOMTSplantodemonstrate5GbeforeWorldCup2018

•  EricssonandTeliaSoneraplantomakecommercialserviceavailableinStockholmandTalilnnbytheendof2018

DevelopmentofalliancesAsiatakesleadBirthofthe

5Gidea

•  “IMTfor2020andbeyond”launchedbyITUtosetscenefor5G

•  METIS*kickedoffbyEUtodefine5G(incl.29partnerscoordinatedbyEricsson)

•  Asia“awakens”andtriggersdefini:onof5Grequirements

•  Huawei,Samsung,NSNandEricssonstartdevelopments

•  FirstexperimentaltrialsusinghigherfrequencybandsbyNTTDocomo(Japan)

•  5GPublicPrivatePartnershipannouncedinMWC(inBarcelona)

•  Mostac2vemanufacturerisHuawei

•  FirstE2Enetworkslicingwithlowlatency(<1ms)shownbyHuawei,DT,Samsung,StanfordUniversityatMWC2015

•  AlltopTelcos&networksupplieractinvariousstandardisa2onanddevelopmentgroups

Riseof5G

•  Defini2onof5Grequirementsandstandard

•  Supplierplantofinalisetestnetworks

•  Developmentof5Gproducts

•  FurtherreleasesofLTE(un2lRel.16)

2020-2022

CommercialDeployments

•  2020:FirstcomprehensivecommercialdeploymentsareexpectedmainlyinEasternAsia

•  202X:FurthercommercialdeploymentsareexpectedinEurope

5Giss:llatanearlystagebutini:alstepshavebeenmadeinAsiaandEuropeWhathashappenedbynowtowards5G?

*METIS:MobileandwirelessEnablersfortheTwenty-twentyInforma2onSociety5G

20

Agenda


5Gthewireless(R)evolu:on–How5Gdifferen2ates&whatisitsexpectedcommercial&technicalimpact?2)


21

UseCases:Assessment

Thedevelopmentof5Gisdrivenby7poten2alusecaseswhichvarysignificantlyintermsoftheir11requirements

Areatrafficcapacity(Mbps/m2)

Devicedensity(#devices/km2)

Enduserdatarate(Gbps)Frequencyspectrum

Baperylife(years)

Mobility(km/h)

Servicedeployment2me

Enduserpercep:on

Coverage(%)

Networkenergyreduc2on(%)Energysavings

Peakdatarate(Gbps)Latency(ms)

Speed&latency

MobileBroadband

Auton.Driving/Platooning

SmartCity

Health&Care

Industry4.0

Logis2cs/FreightTracking

SmartGrids

Tobeseen

Legend Lowimportance Highimportance

Availability(%)

22

Requirements,benefitsandchallenges:Industry4.0

Whileautoma2onandITsystemsarealreadypartofproduc2on,thefourthindustrialrevolu2onscon2nuesthetrendbuildingamanufacturingecosystem

Efficiencyandprocessop:miza:onCostandresourcesavings

CustomerintegratedmanufacturingAdaptableproduc2on

BENEFITS

LatencyAvailability

Energyconsump2on

REQUIREMENTS

! InteroperabilityofdevicesHuman-Robots-Interac2on

Customer-integratedmanufacturingManagementofdynamicsupplynetworks

CHALLENGES

!

23

Max.distanceof500mbetweennodestoenableautonomousdriving

UseCase:Platooning/AutonomousDriving

Certainfunc2onswithinlogis2csarealreadyautomatedhoweverfullautoma2onisdependentonareliableandultra-lowlatency5Gnetwork

PlatooningwithCentralTrafficControl

Distancebetweenmotorway/nodeanddatacentremax.150kmtoensure1mslatencyconnec2ons DataCentre(DC)

DC DC

Distance<150km

Mul2plein-mul2pleout(MIMO)antennatechnology

2

1

Platooningwithpeer-to-peerTrafficControl(Dedicatedshortrangecommunica2ons,DSRC)

FiberConnec0on FiberConnec0on

DataFlow

Autonomousdriving

UseCases

Data&Informa2onFlow

Sensor

24

Requirements,benefitsandchallenges:Platooning/AutonomousDriving

Whileautoma2onandITsystemsarealreadypartofproduc2on,thefourthindustrialrevolu2onscon2nuesthetrendbuildingamanufacturingecosystem

CostsavingsCO2-reduc2onRoadsafetyEfficiency

BENEFITS

Availability/ReliabilityLatencyMobilityCoverage

REQUIREMENTS

! CybersecurityStandardisa2on

Ini2alinvestmentsPoli2calframeworkAccidentlikelihood

CHALLENGES

!

25

UseCase:SmartCity

WhilemostoftheSmartCityusecasesalreadyworkunder4G,thedensityofdevicesandtheconnec2onofpeopleandthingswillsupport5Gevolu2on

SmartCityUseCases

Inhousetransport

LightefficiencySecurity&surveillance

SmartmeterSmartgarage

Solarpanel

Keyless

Weathercondi2onsensor

Appliances

E-Mobility

BikeSharing

Wearables&applica2ons

Smartparking

Homeentertainment

SmartBuilding SmartMobility SmartLiving&People

Trafficmanagements

Aircondi2oning

Repair/insurance

CarSharing

P

Publictransporta2on

26

Requirements,benefitsandchallenges:SmartCity

WhilemostoftheSmartCityusecasesalreadyworkunder4G,thedensityofdevicesandtheconnec2onofpeopleandthingswillsupport5Gevolu2on

InfrastructureefficiencyEnergyefficiencyCO2-reduc2onCostreduc2ons

BENEFITSDevicedensityBandwidth

LowbaperylifeLatency

REQUIREMENTS

!

Nocapitalisa:onofinvestmentWinning‘waroftalent’

Datasecurity/“breakouts”Socialisola2on

CHALLENGES

P

!

27

Agenda


5GthewirelessRevolu:on–How5Gdifferen2ates&howwhatitwillenable?2)


28

Fortelecoms,5Gissome2mespresentedastheholygrail,othersargue5Giswillbethedemiseoftheindustryasweknowittoday

5GandtheInternetofThingsmightnotbringtherevenueboost

WhetherTelcoswillbeabletomone:zethe5Gconceptwithconsumersremainstobeseen

Today

OntheGo

Homeenvironment

Usageagainstdatacaps

WiFiwithoutmobiledatacaps

5G

OntheGo

5Gdecideswhichnetwork–theendofdatacaps?

SelectedExample

29

WhatisinitforMedia?

5GFeatureswillenablenewformsofcontentandinterac:vity

•  Aggregateservicesandmakethemavailableonpla|orms

5Gwillcreatenewmediaconsump:onrooms

•  ConnectedCarswithonboardentertainmentsystemsorauxiliarysystems

•  PublicTransport

•  Morestablestreaminginbeperquality•  AugmentedandVirtualRealityusecasesfor

adjacentbusinesses

•  Differen2ateandinnovatecontentandcontentdelivery

30

Wouldyoubewillingtopayforthesefeaturestoprovidebeperservicestoyourcustomers?

Asetof8requirements

emergedfromtheindustryini:a:ves

Asetof11requirementsemergedfromtheindustryini:a:ves

Speedandlatency

Energysavings

End-userpercep:on

Frequencyspectrum

10-100Gbpspeakdatarate(theore2calmaximum)

1millisecondend-to-endroundtripdelay(latency)

Uptotenyearsbaperylifeforlowpower,machine-typedevices

90%reduc2oninnetworkenergyusage

(Percep2onof)99.998%availability/reliability

(Percep2onof)100%coverage

0,1–1Gbpsenduserexperienceddatarate

1milliondevices/km2

10-100Mbps/m2areatrafficcapacity

500km/hmobility

90minutesservicedeployment2me

5G mobile wireless (R)evolu2on - vau.net · 7 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 C-Netz – 1G GSM –...

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Transcript of 5G mobile wireless (R)evolu2on - vau.net · 7 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 C-Netz – 1G GSM –...