50,000 B.C. 1 Hunter-gatherer Societies8,000 B.C. 5 Agricultural Revolution1,000 B.C. 501 A.D. 1701000 A.D. 2541250 A.D. 400 Black Plague1300 A.D. 3601350 A.D. 443 Black Plague1400 A.D. 3501600 A.D. 545 Black Plague1650 A.D. 4701700 A.D. 600 Industrial Revolution in Europe1800 A.D. 813 Industrial Revolution in US, Irish Potato 1900 A.D. 1,5501950 A.D. 2,400 Contraceptive Pill, Great Famine of C2000 A.D. 6,000

1 billion 18042 billion 1927 (123 years later)3 billion 1960 (33 years later)4 billion 1974 (14 years later)5 billion 1987 (13 years later)6 billion 1999 (12 years later)7 billion 2011 (12 years later)

The ability to expand into diverse new habitats and different climate zones.

The emergence of early and modern agriculture

Development of sanitation systems, antibiotics, and vaccines

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BbkQiQyaYc&safe=active

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcSX4ytEfcE&safe=active

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popclockworld.html

What do you think the top 10 most populated countries are?

RANKCOUNTRY OR AREA POPULATION1 China 1,351,000,0002 India 1,237,000,0003 United States 316,000,0004 Indonesia 245,613,0435 Brazil 203,429,7736 Pakistan 187,342,7217 Bangladesh 158,570,5358 Nigeria 155,215,5739 Russia 138,739,89210 Japan 126,475,664

Rapid Growth: Guatemala, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia

Slow Growth: U.S., Australia, China

Stable: Italy, Greece

Declining: Germany, Bulgaria, Russia, Japan

** In 2050, expected to have somewhere between 7.8-10.7 billion people

Developing countries are growing much faster than developed countries

Some countries more dense than others

Carrying Capacity hotly debated, some say we’ve reached it, and we are in a reproductive time lag. Some say we still have some room to grow. Some

say it is limitless.

CARRYING CAPACITY (c.c.)Maximum c.c. of humans on Earth

9-10 billionDoubling time

42-50 years

Using a moderate “business as usual” model with slow, steady growth of economies and

populations, U.N. estimates demand will be 2X Earth’s capacity by:

2050

The number of births or deaths per 1,000 people per year.

Percent annual population growth (r) = (birth rate – death rate) / 10

Doubling Time (in years) = 70 / (r)**** DO NOT CHANGE r into a decimal!!!!!!!

The average number of children that couples in a population must bear to replace themselves.

2.1 in developed countries 2.5 in developing countrieshttp://overpopulationisamyth.com/2-point-1-kids-a-stable-population

Does reaching replacement-level fertility bring an immediate halt to population growth?

If we reached replacement-level fertility rates, population growth would not stop for roughly another 50 years. Can anyone explain this to me?

The average number of children born to women in a population during their reproductive years.

Good News: TFR has been declining

2008: 2.5 (2.8 in developing, 1.6 developed)

Baby boom: 1946-1964 (TFR 3.7)

In 2008, TFR was 2.1 (1.9 now)

Most TFRs in developed countries are much lower than this (Ex. China is 1.6)

Why is this bad news for the environment?

Very high per capita resource use in U.S., so not so good when you increase population.

1. Importance of children in labor force2. Cost of raising and educating children3. Availability of pension4. Urbanization 5. Infant Mortality Rate6. Educational and Employment

Opportunities for Women7. Average Age at Marriage8. Availability of Abortions and Birth

Control9. Morals

Higher in developing countries

Cost higher in developed countries so they have lower birth rates

$290,000 in U.S.

Good pension systems reduce the need to have children

Urban areas have better access to family planning services and tend to have fewer children.

Rural areas require more children to work in the fields

Better educated women get married later and have fewer children

Infant Mortality Rate: the number of children per 1,000 live births who die before one year of age.

Places with lower IMR, fewer children

Women who have their first child after age 25, tend to have fewer children

Legal abortions and more access to birth control decrease the number of children one has

Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms

Two useful indicators:1.Life expectancy (LE)2. Infant mortality rate

Life Expectancy: the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live

78 years (2008) Lack of health care insurance Obesity

6.6 (2008) Inadequate health care for poor women Drug addiction High birth rate among teenagers

Blue = prereproductive Green= reproductive Pink= postreproductive

Nearly 28% of the people on the planet were under 15 years old in 2008.

Soon they will be moving into their reproductive years

You know what that means…

Population growth much higher in developing nations

Most of the world’s population growth in the future will come from developing nations.

Occurs when countries become industrialized.

1) Death rates decline2) Birth rates decline

Takes place in 4 stages

Population grows very slowly because of a high birth rate and a high death rate.

Ex) Sub-Saharan Africa (not including SA)

Population grows rapidly because birth rates are high and death rates drop

because of improved food production and health

Ex) Yemen, Afghanistan, Bhutan

Population growth slows as both birth and death rates drop because of improved

food production, health, and education.

Ex) Mexico,Jamaica, Costa Rica

Population growth levels off and then declines as birth rates equal and then fall

below death rates.

Ex) US, South Korea, China, Canada, Europe

1) Family Planning2) Reduce Poverty3) Empower Women

How many children to have and when to have them.

Information of birth spacing, birth control, and health care.

Very effective. Why is it so effective? Knowledge and contraceptives!

Responsible for at least 55% of the drop in total fertility rates in developing countries

Ex) Thailand used family planning to cut its annual population growth rate from 3.2% to 0.5%.

1. Unplanned births still very high2. Cannot get access to family planning

even if they want it

United Nations held conference on population in Egypt.

Stabilize the world’s population at 7.8 billion by 2050 instead of the projected 9.2 billion.

Women who…Are EducatedHold a jobLive where women’s rights are not

suppressed…Have fewer children

Women account for 2/3 of all hours worked, but receive only 10% of the world’s income and own less than 2% of the world’s land.

900 million girls do not attend elementary school

Women who cannot read: 5-7 children Women who can read: 2 or fewer

children

China India

Baby boomers make up half of all adult Americans

They have control! The dominate demands for goods and services, important roles in deciding who gets elected, and what laws are passed.

But soon they will be getting old……. and they may drain our social

security benefits.

If decline happens too quickly, you will not have a workforce to support your elders

Ex) Japan: has the world’s highest proportion of elderly people and the lowest proportion of young people.