5 Threats and Opportunities in Philippine Foreign Affairs

7/31/2019 5 Threats and Opportunities in Philippine Foreign Affairs

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The World we live in

Everything is all about assessing threatsand opportunities.

Before foreign policy is charted, thedecision-makers survey possibleimplications and consequences in coursesof action.

Courses of action will definitely impact onthe country both locally and internationally.



The Decision-Making Process

<http://www.geocities.com/cfidarren/crmfund.htm> Retrieved 20 September 2007



What are the current threats?

Definitely not invasion!

Since independence, there has neverbeen any likelihood of an invasion.

Such threats of an invading force mayhave been imagined or created to justifytheir presence.

The Cold War mentality for continuedforeign military presence in the country.



The uncertain extent of Philippineterritorial sea and its exclusive economiczone (EEZ)

Homegrown Terrorism

Eroding Competitiveness and Confidence

World Economic and Financial Crisis Food and Energy Security

What are the current threats?



Territorial Claims

Shared disputes over conflicting territorialand maritime claims in SCS with China,Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei

Darussalam.

Claims of Philippine EEZ overlaps Japanup north, Indonesia down south, and

Palau in the east.

Unclear Philippine maritime baselines



Provides certain guidelines on resolvingoverlapping EEZ claims

Guidelines however provide for mutualrecognition of maritime baselines, which isnot yet established categorically.

The 1982 UNCLOS



The most fundamental issue

Cling to the Treaty of Paris limits, which allclaimant countries reject?

Adhere to the 1982 UNCLOS, which isgenerally accepted by claimant states?



There is a need to harmonize andreconcile domestic policies and laws withthe international regime.

Key issues: internal waters and territorialseas




The 1987 Philippine Constitution definesinternal waters as “…the waters around,

between, and connecting the islands of the

archipelago, regardless of their breadthand dimensions, form part of the internalwaters of the Philippines” (Article 1).

Internal Waters



The UNCLOS defines of internal waters,as “waters on the landward side of the

archipelagic baseline enclosed using

straight baselines across mouths of riversdirectly flowing into the sea, bays andpermanent harbor works.”

Internal Waters



Territorial Sea

Philippine territorial sea limits are definedby a trapezoid based on the “boundaries”

defined in the 1898 Treaty of Paris .

The Philippine claim for historic title to theterritorial sea is based on the Philippines’

status being a successor to the United

States with the formal cession of thePhilippine Islands to the United Statesunder the terms of the Treaty of Paris.



Territorial Claim underthe 1898 Treaty of Paris



Double Talk

Upon signing the 1982 UNCLOS, thePhilippines declared that its “act of signing

the Convention should not be construed

as amending its national laws regarding itsmaritime jurisdictions…and its sovereign

rights as successor to the United States

under the Treaty of Paris”.



Since then, the Philippines has madepronouncements of remedies being madeto address the inconsistencies of

Philippine position with respect to theUNCLOS.

Nothing has yet been done categorically to

abandon the territorial claims of thecountry based on the 1898 Treaty.

Double Talk



Unless the Philippines resolves withfinality the extent of our territorial seas andEEZ, Philippine maritime laws can not be

enforced. Encroachments into claimed areas

(internal and territorial waters) willcontinue.

Disputes arising from “encroaching foreignsea and aircraft will continue.




The Situation

While there is a period of calm, unresolvedclaims can escalate to armed conflictunless jurisdiction is answered.

Foreign fishing vessels and even spyships run around the contested areas ofthe SCS with impunity.



Confidence-building measures mayprovide temporary relief, e.g., ASEANCode of Conduct, joint research and

explorations, creation of a SCSdevelopment authority.

The fundamental issue remains presentand unresolved.

The Philippines still needs to patrol itsterritorial waters from the sea and air.

The Situation



Home-Grown Terrorism

Foreign assistance to local separatistmovements.

The Philippines as base of internationalterrorist movements.

Established linkages between local andinternational terrorist cells.



Land ownership and use

Abuses and bad governance by theminority's own leadership

Neglect of national government to providebasic needs of the minorities

Political alienation of the minorities Prejudices against the minorities

Deprivation of dignity

Grievances



The Financial Storm

Began with defaults on consumermortgage payments

Unemployment and lay-offs

Tight credit markets

Low consumer spending



The House of Cards

Freddie Mac

Frannie Mae

Lehman Brothers Merril Lynch

AIG



Philippine Impact

Affected like any other country

But not as hard as other countries in theregion

Minimal financial exposure amongPhilippine firms with tie-ups with USfinancial markets

Domestic measures to fend downwardtrend were averted by safety nets



Food and Energy Security

World prices of food, particularly rice, andfuel

World oil prices topped the scale at USD140 per barrel

World food production dips

Food lines and riots in most capitals Rice importation



Eroding Competitiveness

Pertains to the Philippineeconomy

Rivalry among states forforeign investments

Competition amidst the Globalregime or international system.



Competitiveness of the country

The International Institute of ManagementDevelopment (IMD) annually releases itsWorld Competitive Yearbook

IMD analyzes and ranks the ability ofnations to create and maintain anenvironment which sustains the

competitiveness of enterprises.



The World Competitive Yearbook

Ranks 55 economies.

Economies are grouped by population,greater than 20 million in group 1, the restin group 2



Criteria in IMD Scorecard

Economic Performance

Government Efficiency

Business Efficiency Infrastructure



The 2008 IMD Competitive Scorecard:The Top Ten

1. USA (1)

2. Singapore (2)

3. Hong Kong (3)

4. Switzerland (6)

5. Luxembourg (4)

6. Denmark (5)

7. Australia (12)

8. Canada (10)

9. Sweden (9)

10. Netherlands (7)

(2007 rankings in brackets)

http://www.imd.ch/research/publications/wcy/upload/scoreboard.pdf (16 Sept 2008)



The 2007 IMD CompetitiveScorecard: Our Asian Brothers

13. Taiwan (18)

17. China (15)

19. Malaysia (23)22. Japan (24)

27. Thailand (33)

29. India (27)31. Korea (29)

51. Indonesia (54)http://www.imd.ch/research/publications/wcy/upload/scoreboard.pdf (16 Sept 2008)



The Philippines is 40th among 55 economies in

2008 The Philippines was 45th

among 55 economies in

2007 (42nd

2006)

The 2007 IMD CompetitiveScorecard: The Philippines



Responsible for projecting animage of the Philippines as a goodinvestment destination andpersuading foreign investors to risktheir money in the country.

The role of Philippine diplomacy



Face-lifting or Cosmetics ain’t enough

Image-making, persuasion, and promotionis not enough.

Luring investments to the country will

never be realized nor will have a lastingeffect if the reality is that the investmentenvironment is not conducive andimproved.

The country stands to lose out toalternative investment destinations, i.e.,China, India, Malaysia.



Ingredients for good environment

Sound trade policy

Political stability

Peace and Order The absence of corruption (or a

reasonable level of it?)

The Rule of Law Adequate and inexpensive transport and

communications infrastructure



Tax Policy

Transaction Costs

Relationship of Wages and Productivity

Ingredients for good environment



Foreign Policy Agenda

Settle the national territorial issue

Strengthen the country’s capacity for

surveillance and enforcement in theterritorial sea and the exclusive economiczone



Cooperate with other countries to cut offsupport for separatists and terrorists

Redress the grievances of the minorities

Strengthen the competitiveness of theeconomy and substantially improve theinvestment climate.

Foreign Policy Agenda



In other words, the Philippines should

Keep its house in order

Maintain sound macro-economicfundamentals and policies

Address peace and order, particularlyinternal security

Eliminate or at the very least bring downthe levels of graft and corruption

Transparency



The Opportunities

The conduct of foreign relations also entailrecognizing the opportunities presented byissues and seizing them.

The period of relative calm in the lastdecades.

The Northeast Asian Triangle and the

ASEAN + 3 process



Down the road

Cooperative effortsbetween policy-makers,politicians, and private

sector to make economycompetitive

Strong partnership

among stakeholders



Sink or Swim

The Philippines has no choice.

Large, continent-size economies aresurging.

Smaller markets are coalescing.

The Philippines has to join the trend andstrengthen itself for competition, which isdefinitely fiercer.



Settle the extent of territorial waters andexclusive economic zone

Decisive action against terrorism whileaddressing humanitarian concerns (thegrievances)

Strengthen domestic conditions to become

competitive.

Taking a national action



The best or ideal FP

Domestic reform

and decisive actionon national issues.



Addressing the Universal Good

Strong and even keeled balance betweeninternational commitments and thepromotion or protection of national

interests. Address the gaps between “what is” and

“what ought to be.”



What isWhat ought

to be

Basis for Foreign Policy

5 Threats and Opportunities in Philippine Foreign Affairs

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